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N° 77 - The Impact of Online Video on the Media Sector

Communications & Strategies - 05/04/2010 N° 77 - The Impact of Online Video on the Media Sector

1er trimestre 2010

The massive increase in Internet traffic (of between 40% and 60% a year) is being sustained primarily by a huge increase in video viewing which, in all its forms, could account for 90% of all online traffic three years from now. It was with this effervescent market rife with unanswered questions in mind that we wanted to bring together several articles that would help sketch out what could be the new outlines of the television industry.


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 Dossier

The impact of online video
on the media sector


Edited by Martijn POEL & Gilles FONTAINE

Introduction
By the Editors     

Papers

Scenarios for the Internet Migration of the Television Industry
Gilles FONTAINE, Florence LE BORGNE-BACHSCHMIDT & Marc LEIBA

Legal, Economic and Cultural Aspects of File Sharing
Nico van EIJK, Joost POORT & Paul RUTTEN

User Generated Diversity
Some Reflections on How to Improve the Quality of Amateur Productions
Natali HELBERGER, Andra LEURDIJK & Silvain de MUNCK

Net Centric Distribution of Video Signal and Must Carry Rules in the U.S.
Martha GARCÍA-MURILLO & Ian MACINNES

Interviews
Roberto MAURO,
Director of Network and Convergence Division,
Samsung Electronics France   

Hans WESTERHOF,
Program Director for Beelden voor de Toekomst (Images for the Future), Dutch audiovisual archive Sound and Vision     

Other papers

Component Sharing Through Licensing
Marc BOURREAU & Pinar DOĞAN  

Mobile Communications: Diffusion Facts and Prospects
Harald GRUBER & Pantelis KOUTROUMPIS

Features

Regulation and Competition

• EU Telecoms Reform: Towards a Unique and Competitive Market
Denis LESCOP

Firms and Markets
• Worldwide Television Market - Markets and Data (20th edition)
Florence LE BORGNE-BACHSCHMIDT & Marc LEIBA

Technical Innovations
• IPTV Services - FTTx Benefits - Operator Challenges
Marjorie BATTIER & Sophie GIRIEUD 

Author biographies  

Future events
• ITS Asia-Pacific Regional Conference
Wellington, New Zealand - August 26-28, 2010    
• 21st European Regional ITS Conference
Copenhagen, Denmark - September 13-15, 2010     
• 38th TPRC conference
Arlington, Virginia, USA - October 1-3, 2010     
• DigiWorld Summit 2010 – 32nd IDATE international conference
Montpellier, France - November 17-18, 2010



Dossier: The impact of online video on the media sector


Scenarios for the Internet Migration of the Television Industry
Gilles FONTAINE, Florence LE BORGNE-BACHSCHMIDT & Marc LEIBA

Key words: television, video, networks, on-demand, connected devices,
advertising, pay-TV.


All the conditions for the television industry's migration to the Internet are now in place. While this migration will be gradual, it will have a deep-seated impact on the industry: 1) the exclusive rights model will no longer be the standard; 2) some consumers will abandon traditional managed networks; 3) a globalization trend will be sparked, to the benefit of the major rights holders. Unlike the music and print media industries, the TV industry is gaining a strong position on the Web. As a result, television is poised to play a central role in video services. This offensive strategy will likely pay off down the line, but does not entirely eliminate the possibility of destroying value. There are structural reasons for this, including a fiercely competitive online advertising market and a lack of control over program circulation. Far from being simply transitory, the 2009-2010 economic downturn marks the beginning of a decade of restructuring for the TV industry. This new period will begin with an overall decline in the sector's resources before increasingly varied consumption patterns spur a new period of growth. The decade running from 2010 to 2020 will also be a period that focuses on cost control, with the industrialization of TV production that will depart once and for all from its historical model, i.e., film. This migration to the Web poses a threat to the European industry in particular. A reassessment of the television industry's regulatory strategy appears both necessary and urgent, and will involve the creation of integrated pan-European conglomerates.


Legal, Economic and Cultural Aspects of File Sharing
Nico van EIJK, Joost POORT & Paul RUTTEN

Key words: filesharing, downloading/uploading, entertainment industry,
cultural analysis, economic analysis, legal and policy analysis.


This contribution seeks to identify the short and long-term economic and cultural effects of file sharing on music, films and games, while taking into account the legal context and policy developments. The short-term implications examined concern direct costs and benefits to society, whereas the long-term impact concerns changes in the industry's business models as well as in cultural diversity and the accessibility of content. It observes that the proliferation of digital distribution networks combined with the availability of digital technology among consumers has broken the entertainment industries' control over the access to their products. Only part of the decline in music sales can be attributed to file sharing. Despite the losses for the music industry, the increased accessibillity of culture renders the overall welfare effects of file sharing robustly positive. As a consequence the entertainment industries, particularly the music industry, have to explore new models to sustain their business.


User Generated Diversity
Some Reflections on How to Improve the Quality of Amateur Productions
Natali HELBERGER, Andra LEURDIJK & Silvain de MUNCK

Key words: user created content, diversity, quality, strategies.

The potential of user created content to make a meaningful contribution to media diversity is subject to debates. Central to these debates is the argument of the quality of amateur productions. This article will take a close look at this argument, and make some suggestions on how to improve the quality and utility of amateur productions with regard to the democratic functions of media.


Net Centric Distribution of Video Signal and Must Carry Rules in the U.S.
Martha GARCÍA-MURILLO & Ian MACINNES

Key words: must carry rules, net centric video distribution, FCC.

We are moving to a net centric video distribution model. There is thus a need to rethink must carry rules. In this paper we evaluate the process of transition to a model without must carry rules using an organizational change perspective: leadership; engagement and participation; planning and strategy; process; and outcome evaluation. It concludes that the U.S. Federal Communications Commission did not adequately respond to the needs of the sector and the lack of a transition strategy may have impaired the evolution of the video distribution sector towards a business model that can accomplish both access to greater variety as well as the survival of some local station producers.


Other papers

Component Sharing Through Licensing

Marc BOURREAU & Pınar DOĞAN

Key words: component sharing, licensing, commonality, product
differentiation.


In this paper, we consider products that are composed of distinct components that can be shared with rival firms through licensing agreements. In contrast to the standard licensing settings in which firms make binary choices (whether to license or not), the innovator decides on the set of product components to be licensed, i.e., on how much to license. The product components that are licensed out determines the degree of commonality in the competing products, which in turn affects post-licensing competition through the degree of product differentiation. In a duopoly setting we show that licensing occurs more often than what a binary choice setting predicts, while it does not necessarily imply more component-sharing between the firms. We also show that in a dynamic setting where the timing of entry depends on the components that are acquired through the license, the innovator may strategically grant a license for a smaller set of components to delay competition unless entry expands the market. Finally, we study a more general licensing scheme and show that a larger set of components are licensed out under a two-part scheme with a per-unit royalty than with a fixed fee scheme.


Mobile Communications: Diffusion Facts and Prospects
Harald GRUBER & Pantelis KOUTROUMPIS

Key words: Mobile telecommunications, diffusion of technology
generations, mobile broadband services, fixed-mobile substitution.


This paper discusses the diffusion of different generations of innovative mobile services and compares actual market performance with expectation at the time of introduction of each generation. Whereas 1G and 2G were an unexpected success under this point of view, 3G did not live up to expectations. This poses the question to which extent technology was too much pushed on the supply side, rather than pulled on the demand side. While discussing the intermediary technologies leading up to 4G, the question of service innovations is posed, such as the convergence of fixed and mobile technologies. The paper thus dwells on possible reasons for actual market performance and tries to assess the perspective of the introduction of innovations still to come.

Marjorie BATTIER is consultant at IDATE in charge of the new services for the television market. She notably works on an Intelligence Service NextGen TV (analysis of mutations in the television market and innovation of services: reports and database) and she focus on media groups' and operators' strategies. Before joining IDATE, Marjorie worked in Orange France Telecom group, as consultant for 6 years and as marketing responsible in charge of two loyalty programs for 3 years. Marjorie holds a Masters degree in Innovation and Technology Management in Paris Dauphine and a degree of Political Science in Sciences Po Grenoble.
m.battier@idate.org

Marc BOURREAU is Professor of Economics at Telecom ParisTech (Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Télécommunications, Paris). He is also a research associate at the laboratory of industrial economics (LEI) of the Center for Research in Economics and Statistics (CREST). His research interests concern economic and policy issues in network industries, with an emphasis on telecommunications, the Internet and the payment industries. He has published articles in various peer-reviewed economics journals, such as The American Economic Review, The European Economic Review, the International Journal of Industrial Organization, Information Economics and Policy, and Telecommunications Policy. Pr. Bourreau received a Masters degree in engineering science from Telecom ParisTech and a Ph.D. in economics from Université Paris 2 Panthéon-Assas.
marc.bourreau@telecom-paristech.fr

P?nar DO?AN is Lecturer in Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School of Government. Her research interests include industrial organization, economics of networks, regulation and competition policy with an emphasis on the telecommunications industry. Her research has been published in various academic journals, including American Economic Review, European Economic Review, International Journal of Industrial Organization, Journal of Economics and Management Science, and Telecommunications Policy. She received a Masters  degree in Mathematical Economics and a Ph.D. in Economics from University of Toulouse, France. Prior to joining the Harvard Kennedy School, she taught at Koc University, Istanbul, from 2002 to 2004.
pinar_dogan@hks.harvard.edu

Nico van EIJK is Professor at the Institute for Information Law (IViR, University of Amsterdam). His research covers various topics within the field of information law, with a focus on Media and Telecommunications law.

Gilles FONTAINE is IDATE's Deputy CEO in charge of consulting and market research, having previously headed up the Media Economics department. Prior to joining IDATE, and after a stint with the Ministry of Culture and the French radio broadcasting company SOFIRAD, Gilles worked for the national deposit and consignment office, La Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations, monitoring investments in a large number of media and multimedia companies. Gilles has also been involved in developing thematic TV channel operations. He holds a degree from the highly reputed French business school, HEC (Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, 1983) and from the Institut MultiMédias (1984).
g.fontaine@idate.org

Martha GARCÍA-MURILLO is an Associate Professor and Director of the Master's Program in Telecommunications and Network Management at Syracuse University's School of Information Studies. She has an M.S. in Economics and a Ph.D. in Political Economy and Public Policy from the University of Southern California. She has been involved in the research of several regional and international UN, US State Department and other international organizations. Dr. García-Murillo specializes in regulation of information and communication technologies. Her areas of research include institutional and evolutionary economics in the ICT sector, the impact of regulation on business behavior, factors that affect infrastructure deployment, regulation of telecommunications in Latin America and the impact of convergence on regulatory bodies.

Sophie GIRIEUD is Senior Consultant at IDATE, with new media markets, Web 2.0 and advertising as her prime areas of focus. Prior to this, Sophie worked as an economic consultant for France's National Centre for Cinematography's (CNC) Media Division, where she produced a report on funded media production and the CNC's involvement in animated productions in 2005, in addition to contributing to the Audiovisual Production Observatory. She is a graduate of the EDHEC Business School.
s.girieud@idate.org

Harald GRUBER is head of the ICT and e-Economy division at the Projects Directorate of the European Investment Bank based in Luxembourg. He has published The Economics of Mobile Telecommunications with Cambridge University Press and a wide range of articles in particular on the mobile telecommunications sector in refereed journals. He has been professor for telecommunications economics at Bocconi University (Milan). He is on the editorial board of Telecommunications Policy and Information Economics and Policy. Harald Gruber holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the London School of Economics.

Natali HELBERGER is Senior Researcher at the Institute for Information Law (IViR), University of Amsterdam. Natali specialises in the regulation of converging information and communications markets. Focus points of her research are user rights and the changing role of the user in media and copyright law and policy. Natali has conducted research into digital user issues for the European Commission, the European Parliament, the Council of Europe and national governments.

Pantelis KOUTROUMPIS is a Research Fellow at Imperial College Business School. Dr. Koutroumpis is an economist whose speciality is the regulatory and industrial economics of telecommunications industry. He participates in the STAREBEI scheme at the European Investment Bank where his current research focuses on the effects of mobile infrastructure on economic growth and productivity. Dr. Koutroumpis is an adjunct Lecturer at the University of Athens, department of Informatics and Telecommunications. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Imperial College London, an M.Phil. from Cambridge University and a M.Eng. from the National Technical University of Athens.

Florence LE BORGNE-BACHSCHMIDT is Director of Studies, Head of TV & Digital Content Business Unit at IDATE. Florence's prime area of focus is the development of digital technologies (terrestrial, cable, satellite and IPTV, mobile TV, digital cinema, video and TV on the web) dealing with both the economic and strategic aspects of those sectors. More generally, her work involves analysis of media groups' strategies, chiefly in Europe and Japan. Before joining IDATE, Florence worked as the Head of Research in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais Regional Development Agency's Economic Observation department, where she devoted herself primarily to issues relating to the Information Society, the development of telework and the mastery of key technologies. She is a graduate of the Lille school of management EDHEC (Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales).
f.leborgne@idate.org

Marc LEIBA is consultant at IDATE in charge of the new services and business models for the media industry. He notably works on studies dealing with ebooks, online press, digital radio, next gen TV and music. Before joining IDATE, Marc worked in the Information society desk at the French Directorate of the Media Development in Paris as an attaché. In addition he published analyses in economic newspapers such as Le Journal du Net and gained marketing and trade experience in a publishing house. Marc is a graduate of Reims Management School (2006) and the Institut des hautes études en communications sociales (2007).
m.leiba@idate.org

Denis LESCOP is associate Professor of law and economics and Director of the Research Centre at TELECOM Business School (member of TELECOM Institute). His research focuses on open innovation, business ecosystems and the analysis of regulation policies in the telecommunications and media sectors. He was previously case handler for the French competition Council and head of economic and technical studies unit at the French Telecommunications Regulator. Denis holds a Doctorate in Economics from the Université de Franche Comté.

Andra LEURDIJK is senior researcher and consultant at TNO Information and Communication Technology (Delft, the Netherlands) where she specializes in the impact of ICT on media and cultural policies. She works as a researcher and consultant and also publishes and lectures extensively on these subjects. Over the past six years at TNO Andra has worked in a large variety of projects for the Dutch government, the Public Service Broadcaster, the media authority, the culture council, the Press Fund and the European Commission (IPTS). She also worked in FP6 programs such as Citizen Media and New Media for a New Millennium-NM2. In 2008-2009 Andra was a member and secretary of the commissions that assessed the Dutch Public Service Broadcaster's and the Dutch World Service's performance. She is currently a member of the Advisory Group on Public Service Media Governance for the Council of Europe. Andra completed an MA in political sciences and a Ph.D. in communication studies on TV journalism and cultural diversity, at the University of Amsterdam. Previously she worked at the Media Department of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science, at the media and Internet research/consultancy firm (ACS-i) and as lecturer in media policies at the Communication Studies Department of the University of Amsterdam, the Erasmus University Rotterdam and the School of Journalism in Zwolle.  

Ian MACINNES is Associate Dean for Academic Affairs at Syracuse University's School of Information Studies, where he has been a faculty member since 1999. Previously he spent two years at the University of Minnesota's Carlson School of Management after completing a Ph.D. from the University of Southern California in Political Economy and Public Policy and a master's degree at the London School of Economics. He was also a Fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. His areas of research interest include industry convergence; technology policy; trust and fraud in electronic markets; virtual communities; and business models for online entertainment.

Roberto MAURO is Director of the Network & Convergence Division at Samsung Electronics France. Prior to moving to France he lived and worked five years in South Korea, where he led strategic projects in marketing, business development and corporate strategy for several Samsung Group's companies in Europe, North America, China and Asia Pacific. Before joining Samsung, Mr. Mauro worked in European and US high-tech companies in international sales, marketing and business development roles, most recently with Cisco Systems. A dual citizen of the USA and Italy, Mr. Mauro holds an MSc in Electronics Engineering from the Polytechnic Institute of Milan (Italy), an MBA from IMD (Switzerland), and studied Chinese language and culture at Beijing Foreign Studies University (China).

Silvain de MUNCK is senior project manager and researcher at TNO Information and Communication Technology in Delft. He is involved in Future Internet and social computing/web 2.0 research, monitoring of the communications and media sector, market analyses, and strategic behaviour of companies. Silvain holds a master degree in International Business at the University of Maastricht and participated in the Erasmus exchange programme at the Aarhus business school in Denmark. He also studied industrial engineering and management science at Hogeschool Limburg, Institute for Higher Professional Education, for one year and two years of law at the University of Maastricht.

Martijn POEL is senior researcher at TNO. He specialises in information society policy, media policy and innovation policy. His research topics include the competitiveness of Europe's ICT and media sector, the impact of R&D support programmes and regulation. Martijn's methods include policy evaluation, impact assessment and the analysis of innovation systems. Clients include the European Commission, the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), The Institute for the Promotion of Innovation by Science and Technology in Flanders (IWT), the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Dutch communications regulator (OPTA). He is an affiliate of the Delft University of Technology, where he is analysing the impact of the policy mix on services innovation in digital media. He holds a Masters degree in Communication Science from the University of Amsterdam. He took economic courses at the Erasmus University of Rotterdam and legal courses at the Institute for Information Law (University of Amsterdam). He chairs the organisation committee of the European Communications Policy Research conference (EuroCPR).

Joost POORT is Section Head of Regulation and Competition Policy at SEO Economic Research. He performed a wide variety of studies on the market structure and regulation of infrastructures, in particular network sectors. Within this field, telecommunication infrastructures are currently his main interest. Another special field of interest is the economics of culture, creativity and heritage.

Paul RUTTEN is Professor in Digital Media Studies and Chair of the International MA Program Book and Digital Media Studies at the University of Leiden. He specializes in the impact of digitisation on media and creative industries and its consequences for both cultural and economic policy and strategy.

Hans WESTERHOF is Deputy Director at Sound and Vision. He is responsible for the departments of Collections, ICT and Cataloguing and for the project Images for the Future. Before 2007 he worked as political advisor at the municipality of Amsterdam and as management consultant and business director at the thinktank Knowledgeland. He has an MA in political science.


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