The Future of Telecoms
Future Reports - 11/04/2011
Strategies for 2020: Which Strategies for Telcos?
Drawing on a number of forward-looking studies carried out by IDATE teams, this report provides readers with a portrait of the market in 2020 along with a comprehensive analysis of key telecom market trends, and of carriers strategic responses to the profound changes taking place in their competitive environment.
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Language |
Support |
Nbr of page |
Price |
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| M10311 |  | PDF | 97 |
4500 Euros
3500 euros excl. VAT |  |
| M10311 |  | PDF | 97 |
4500 Euros
3500 euros excl. VAT | |
What are the key long-term consumption patterns for telecom services?
What are the potential take-up levels and revenue generated by the different fixed (broadband, voice, VoD, IPTV, VoIP) and mobile (voice, data, VoD, IPTV, VAS) services?
How will market forces play out for telecom carriers, between pressure from Internet services and changing patterns in calling markets?
What are carriers main strategic options for tackling changing consumption patterns and shifting competitive balances?
> Market data for 2010-2020 for each of the countries examined
France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, the United States
Subscribers Penetration rates - Revenue
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1. Executive Summary
2. Methodology
3. How telecom consumption and the industry itself will evolve over the long term
3.1. The environment: a pervasive and globalized Internet
Broadband households
Multipurpose devices
A fractured personal ID, but which can be unified
Telco collectives
An ambient, hybrid and inconsistent network
Plethora of content
The global village
3.2. Telecom markets long-term development
3.2.1. Video usage over the long term
Role of video in the time spent online
Fragmented communication
Dividing lines between personal and business communications erased
Sustainability of high-volume and free offers called into question
Development of social networks
User acceptance of digital IDs
3.2.2. Access
Managed vs. own networks
Natural enhancement of online consumption
Mobile consumption needs
Single vs. multipurpose device
M2M and the Internet of things
Congestion on mobile networks
3.2.3. Services
Location-based solutions take hold
3.2.4. Financing
Role of public monies in financing the network
Role played by online advertising
Net neutrality being called into question
3.2.5. Market structure and player strategies
Competitive intensity
New economies weight in the equation
3.3. Services and market segments
3.3.1. Summary description of the different socio-types
3.3.2. Service features by socio-type
3.4. Long-term impact on the telecom market structure
An industry consolidated by continent
Traffic segmentation
Income from indirect sources (B2B2C)
Marketing in the era of hyper-sociology
Weight of emerging operators
Increased differentiation between networks
Control over traffic
Free voice services
3.5. Snapshot: long-term view of the telecoms industry
How existing services will evolve
How the carrier business will evolve
4. Telecom market growth forecasts
4.1. Modelling exercise results
Methodology
Key variables
4.2. Rsults by country
France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, the United States
5. Strategic paths available to carriers
5.1. Change in geographical coverage
5.2. Growth outlets in emerging economies
5.3. Change in product line
5.3.1. End of the all-purpose model
5.3.2. Creation of platforms
5.4. Change of position on the value chain
5.4.1. Vertical integration of networks and content
5.4.2. Portal 2.0: highly customized content selection
5.4.3. Digital home manager
6. Correlation of carrier strategies and consumption profiles
6.1. Sizeable increase in mobile data traffic
6.2. Daily consumption of digital video
6.3. Growing importance of user qualification
6.4. Social networking sites growing prominence in formal communications
6.5. Building a platform
6.6. Four development scenarios for ICT consumption
6.7. Key variables
6.8. Summary of the scenarios
6.9. Key development variables
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Methodology: a rigorous approach
This report provides development scenarios for the telecom services sector up to 2020, based on macro-economic scenarios that incorporate hypotheses on the market environment, lifestyles and consumer profiles, and which combine:
Analysis of key development factors: consumption, access, services, financing players
Portrait of the telecom industry in 2020: IDATE provides its views on the expected development of each of the key issues being examined, and combines them to paint a portrait of how the telecom services sector will evolve up to 2020.
Benchmark scenario figures: the scope of analysis includes developed countries, and benchmark scenario figures are applied to the United States and to the five main European markets: Germany, Spain, France, Italy and the UK.
Portrait of the future industry and key figures
IDATE has identified the key variables shaping the way telecom service usage will evolve. By combining the most likely development scenarios for each factor, IDATE has obtained a series of exclusive scenarios and chosen the benchmark scenario from among them, for which we provide detailed figures. The effects and scope of these developments make it possible to establish a detailed portrait of the future telecom services landscape, along with a set of benchmark figures and market data and forecasts for each country up to 2020.
Penetration rate (% of households)
Subscribers (million)
Revenues (million EUR)
Fixed Services
Broadband Access
- of which Ultra Broadband Access
- of which other Broadband Access
Voice only Access
VoD
IPTV
Managed VAS (incl.VoIP)
Fixed Voice (excl. VoIP) Mobile Services
Mobile Services
Data Access only (cards & 3G dongles)
Data & Voice Access
Voice Access
VoD
IPTV
VAS
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Bazile Telecom, MVNO: end of the all-purpose model
BskyB: bundling strategy
BT-Ribbit: building a platform
Deutsche Telekom: portal 2.0
Iliad/Free: digital home manager
Lebara Mobile, MVNO: end of the all-purpose model Orange: digital home manager
Orange in Africa: growth outlets in emerging economies
Telefσnica: portal 2.0, highly customized content selection
Telefσnica Tcloud: building a platform
Telefσnica: growth outlets in emerging economies
Verizon FiOS: vertical integration
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