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Future of Communication 2020

Dataset+Report - 24/12/2012 Future of Communication 2020

Telco & OTT communication - Market forecasts

Communication being ubiquitious and IP-based solutions taking increasingly a bigger part in it, this market still remains essential despite decreasing revenues. This report provides analyses on quantitative changes until 2020, in terms of usages and revenues. It also describes the latest trends, the re-positioning of telcos in an OTT world.


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1. Executive Summary
 1.1. The six key trends shaping the market
 1.2. Key developments in usage of communication services
 1.3. The quantification of the communication market

2. Methodology

3. Communication 2020 in figures
 3.1. Key usage developments by 2020
 3.1.1. Mobile users still much more dominant than OTT VoIP users
          USA
            
EU5: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK
 3.1.2. Messaging users of both telcos and OTTs expected to grow
          USA
            
EU5: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK
 3.1.3. Number of SMS sent still set to grow, but OTT messages are rapidly catching up
          USA
            
EU5: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK
 3.2. The quantification of communication revenue by 2020
 3.2.1. Overall communication services market expected to see very slight decline over eight years from 2012 to 2020
 3.2.2. Increase in mobile communication revenues cannot compensate for the decline in fixed communication revenues
 3.2.3. Increase in telco messaging revenues cannot compensate for the decline in telco voice revenues
 3.2.4. OTT communication revenues cannot compensate for decline in telco communication revenues

4. The six key trends in communication
 4.1. The aggregation of communication types
 4.1.1. Intro
 4.1.2. Facebook
 4.1.3. Google
 4.1.4. WhatsApp
 4.1.5. Apple
 4.1.6. Operators

 4.2. Beyond traditional communication for telcos
 4.2.1. Intro
 4.2.2. Operators providing their own OTT service
 4.2.3. Partnerships between OTT and operators
 4.2.4. joyn (RCSe)

 4.3. Voice and messaging becoming a telco commodity
 4.3.1. Intro
 4.3.2. Mobile voice and messaging offered in abundance
 4.3.3. Fixed voice and Internet access also unlimited
 4.3.4. Bundling it all for an even cheaper experience

 4.4. Mobile data and WiFi makes strong case for OTTs
 4.4.1. Intro
 4.4.2. Unlimited mobile data still rare
 4.4.3. WiFi over mobile allows unlimited OTT communication including video

 4.5. The rise of video communication

 4.5.1. Intro
 4.5.2. Telco video communications
 4.5.3. OTT video communications

 4.6. Genuinely free OTT offers in exchange of user data
 4.6.1. Intro
 4.6.2. Free or low-cost OTT services
 4.6.3. Advertising and data usage
What will be the key trends in communication by 2020? Will the total revenue pie of communication shrink or grow?

How are telco margins evolving for communication? Simple substitution from fixed to mobile or revenue loss?

In terms of usages, how will communication services evolve until 2020? What about OTT VoIP & SMS?

What are the impacts of new technologies such as WebRTC or RCSe?

Can telcos recover their territory from OTT players? Moreover, how much territory are they really losing, if any?

IDATE's scenario for the communication services industry with market estimates from 2012 to 2020

Countries analysed
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
United States

Usage data

Telcos - fixed

Fixed telephony lines (PSTN/ISDN)
Fixed telephony density
Number of fixed voice minutes
Internet users
Fixed Internet penetration
VoIP subscribers (managed)
VoIP penetration

Telcos - mobile
Mobile subscribers
Mobile density
Number of mobile voice minutes
Mobile Internet users
Mobile Internet penetration
Mobile VoIP users (managed)
Mobile VoIP penetration
Number of SMS/MMS users
SMS penetration
Number of SMS sent
Number of other manages messages sent
Number of telco-OTT users

OTT Players
Number of social network users
VoIP users
Penetration of OTT VoIP
Number of messaging apps users (whatsapp, BBM...)
Penetration of messaging apps
Penetration of messaging apps
Number of messages sent

Communication Services

Telco fixed communications
Fixed telephony (voice) including VoIP
Internet and data
Telco mobile communications
Mobile voice
Mobile data
Non-SMS data
SMS
Other messaging MMS, telco OTT...
OTT Communications
Social networks communication revenue
VoIP
Paid messaging apps
OTT IM
The report ships with a slideshow providing the reader with a synopsis of the study's essential points.
It enables you:
to share the principal findings rapidly with your colleagues
to use the slides for your internal presentations
or simply to browse through the main thoughts of the market study with some clicks
Get all the details for this study - summary, contents, key questions, excerpts, related reports, ... - in dowloading the fact sheet here


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