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Future of Communication 2020

Dataset+Report - 24/12/2012 Future of Communication 2020

Telco & OTT communication - Market forecasts

Communication being ubiquitious and IP-based solutions taking increasingly a bigger part in it, this market still remains essential despite decreasing revenues. This report provides analyses on quantitative changes until 2020, in terms of usages and revenues. It also describes the latest trends, the re-positioning of telcos in an OTT world.

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1. Executive Summary
 1.1. The six key trends shaping the market
 1.2. Key developments in usage of communication services
 1.3. The quantification of the communication market

2. Methodology

3. Communication 2020 in figures
 3.1. Key usage developments by 2020
 3.1.1. Mobile users still much more dominant than OTT VoIP users
          • USA
• EU5: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK
 3.1.2. Messaging users of both telcos and OTTs expected to grow
          • USA
• EU5: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK
 3.1.3. Number of SMS sent still set to grow, but OTT messages are rapidly catching up
          • USA
• EU5: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK
 3.2. The quantification of communication revenue by 2020
 3.2.1. Overall communication services market expected to see very slight decline over eight years from 2012 to 2020
 3.2.2. Increase in mobile communication revenues cannot compensate for the decline in fixed communication revenues
 3.2.3. Increase in telco messaging revenues cannot compensate for the decline in telco voice revenues
 3.2.4. OTT communication revenues cannot compensate for decline in telco communication revenues

4. The six key trends in communication
 4.1. The aggregation of communication types
 4.1.1. Intro
 4.1.2. Facebook
 4.1.3. Google
 4.1.4. WhatsApp
 4.1.5. Apple
 4.1.6. Operators

 4.2. Beyond traditional communication for telcos
 4.2.1. Intro
 4.2.2. Operators providing their own OTT service
 4.2.3. Partnerships between OTT and operators
 4.2.4. joyn (RCSe)

 4.3. Voice and messaging becoming a telco commodity
 4.3.1. Intro
 4.3.2. Mobile voice and messaging offered in abundance
 4.3.3. Fixed voice and Internet access also unlimited
 4.3.4. Bundling it all for an even cheaper experience

 4.4. Mobile data and WiFi makes strong case for OTTs
 4.4.1. Intro
 4.4.2. Unlimited mobile data still rare
 4.4.3. WiFi over mobile allows unlimited OTT communication including video

 4.5. The rise of video communication

 4.5.1. Intro
 4.5.2. Telco video communications
 4.5.3. OTT video communications

 4.6. Genuinely free OTT offers in exchange of user data
 4.6.1. Intro
 4.6.2. Free or low-cost OTT services
 4.6.3. Advertising and data usage
• What will be the key trends in communication by 2020? Will the total revenue pie of communication shrink or grow?

• How are telco margins evolving for communication? Simple substitution from fixed to mobile or revenue loss?

• In terms of usages, how will communication services evolve until 2020? What about OTT VoIP & SMS?

• What are the impacts of new technologies such as WebRTC or RCSe?

• Can telcos recover their territory from OTT players? Moreover, how much territory are they really losing, if any?

IDATE's scenario for the communication services industry with market estimates from 2012 to 2020

Countries analysed
• France
• Germany
• Italy
• Spain
• United Kingdom
• United States

Usage data

Telcos - fixed

• Fixed telephony lines (PSTN/ISDN)
• Fixed telephony density
• Number of fixed voice minutes
• Internet users
• Fixed Internet penetration
• VoIP subscribers (managed)
• VoIP penetration

Telcos - mobile
• Mobile subscribers
• Mobile density
• Number of mobile voice minutes
• Mobile Internet users
• Mobile Internet penetration
• Mobile VoIP users (managed)
• Mobile VoIP penetration
• Number of SMS/MMS users
• SMS penetration
• Number of SMS sent
• Number of other manages messages sent
• Number of telco-OTT users

OTT Players
• Number of social network users
• VoIP users
• Penetration of OTT VoIP
• Number of messaging apps users (whatsapp, BBM...)
• Penetration of messaging apps
• Penetration of messaging apps
• Number of messages sent

Communication Services

Telco fixed communications
• Fixed telephony (voice) including VoIP
• Internet and data
Telco mobile communications
• Mobile voice
• Mobile data
• Non-SMS data
• Other messaging MMS, telco OTT...
OTT Communications
• Social networks communication revenue
• VoIP
• Paid messaging apps
The report ships with a slideshow providing the reader with a synopsis of the study's essential points.
It enables you:
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• to use the slides for your internal presentations
• or simply to browse through the main thoughts of the market study with some clicks
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