The Future of Mobile Communications
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Innovation Reports - 15/03/2009
New communication methods to preserve revenue growth
The mobile communications market is largely seen as having passed its growth phase, entering a state of saturation, as well as a negative trend in mobile revenues. This report will focus on communication, even if the mobile phone today can do so much more than communicate, as well as on the new methods of communication: SMS, VoIP, IM, social networking, ...
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1. Executive Summary
2. Introduction
The falling mobile revenue growth
New communication methods to preserve revenue growth
3. The End of the Mobile Voice Eldorado
3.1. Increasing dependency on data revenue
Data revenue showing better annual growth rate compared to voice
and data revenue shares are increasing at the expense of voice
and finally, comparison of ARPUs confirms the trend
3.2 The need for new richer communication methods
SMS accounts for the lions share of data revenue
but SMS alone cannot sustain revenue growth
hence the need for new communication services
4. What the Users Want
4.1. Looking at the fixed Internet
4.1.1. Instant messaging: usages differ between countries and age groups
Huge penetration among young internet users
Geographical disparities
Significant online time is spent on IM
4.1.2. Social Networking services: the new way to communicate online
A dramatic rise in use
Facebook leading the pack
Spanning across generations
4.1.3. IM challenged by social networks
Uses on social networks
IM to be devoured by social networks?
4.1.4. New forms of communication coming into play
New modes of communication
"Wall-to-wall communication (Facebook)
4.2. Communication usages: diversity and growth
Frequency of use
SMS is more used than the Internet
Importance of vocal communication
Importance of mobile communication
4.3. Users want both Internet and mobile telephony worlds
4.3.1. Terminal trade-off: laptop + mobile phone is the perfect combination
4.3.2. Address book functionalities: presence features expected
4.3.3. Key demands of end users: advanced features and unlimited usage
5. The Current Challenges for the Operators
5.1. The challenges facing mobile IM
5.1.1. Background: product features and usages
The web 2.0 IM experience on the mobile phone
Mobile IM already relatively well established, and expected to grow
5.1.2. Partnering with giants or working alone
Mapping of present IM partnerships promoted by operators
Case USA: the trend setters of mobile IM
Case Europe: the lost battle against the giants
Case Japan: not interested?
Where fixed IM has a strong presence, partnering the preferred option
5.1.3. Pricing strategies and SMS cannibalisation
Add-on tariffs, dedicated to IM
Integration with messaging bundles
Integration with data bundles
Mapping of pricing strategies for mobile IM deployed by operators
The Pricing strategy has a correlation with SMS revenue cannibalisation risks
5.2. The challenges facing social networking
5.2.1. Background: product features and usage
Top mobile social networks are those of the fixed Web
Mobile interfaces are simplified versions of PC-based SNS
Mobile only social networks more likely to succeed in developing countries
Micro-blogging: highly suitable for mobile communications
Mobile social networking usages are still in their infancy
but they are growing fast
5.2.2. Operators: becoming mobile social networking facilitators?
Mapping of present SNS services on the mobile phone
Mobile operators position themselves as SNS aggregators
5.2.3. Pricing strategies to drive data revenue
5.3. Whats going to happen to voice?
5.3.1. Voice will always remain an integral part of communication
Mobile voice usage continues to grow
because people want to talk directly to those who matter most
5.3.2. Unlimited plans: the final chapter of commoditisation
There are many flavours to unlimited voice calling plans
The unrestricted unlimited voice call tariff explosion of 2008
5.3.3. Will VoIP compensate the traditional voice usage?
The main selling point of VoIP, the price, losing its gloss
Handset availability limitations; operators vs. handset vendors
Shift in strategy; not just VoIP alone
QoS still remains an issue
6. Drivers of the Future
6.1. The RCS initiative and its key success factors
6.1.1. The big names uniting; operators, handsets and networks
6.1.2. Providing network interoperability
6.1.3. The handset interoperability dilemma
6.1.4. The presence enabled enhanced phonebook
6.1.5. Controlling the price and service
6.1.6. Roll-out schedule; not just a myth
6.2. The social networking influence on the mobile
6.2.1. Web 2.0 giants taking the first steps to interoperability
The tug-of-war for personal data: Internet vs. Web 2.0
OpenSocial: Facebook vs. Google and the rest of the world?
But even Facebook beginning to cooperate?
6.2.2. SNS as an aggregator of communication methods
Messaging is popular through mobile SNS
and time spent online using SNS is increasing at the expense of traditional communication
but VoIP usage is not picking up
6.3. Operator strategies for the future
6.3.1. The RCS and SNS to co-exist for richer communication
6.3.2. Potential threats to operators
6.3.3. The operators positioning for the future |
What do the users want?
What are the main challenges for the operators?
Whats going to happen to voice?
To what extent will mobile instant messaging cannibalise SMS?
May Telecom operators become mobile social networking facilitators?
What are the key success factors for the RCS initiative?
Which scenario for the future and where do the operators position themselves?
> Countries analysed:
France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, UK, USA
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3
AT&T
bebo
Bouygues Telecom
E-Mobile
E-Plus
Facebook
Itsmy
KDDI
Movistar
Myspace
NTT Docomo
O2
Orange
SFR
Skype
SoftBank
Sprint
TIM
T-Mobile
Twitter
Verizon
Vodafone
Wind
Yoigo |
Figure 1: Annual mobile revenue growth rate, 2004-2009
Figure 2: Comparison of annual mobile voice and data revenue growth rate, EU 2004-2009
Figure 3: Voice and data revenue shares, EU 2004-2009
Figure 4: ARPU trends and forecasts
Figure 5: % of SMS generated revenue over total data revenue, Telefonica Europe
Figure 6: Breakdown of revenue shares, Vodafone Group
Figure 7: IM usages by age group in Canada in 2007 (% of home Internet users)
Figure 8: Worldwide largest IM applications in December 2007 (million unique visitors)
Figure 9 : Hours spent per unique visitor on instant messengers
Figure 10: Social networking growth by worldwide region (in million monthly unique visitors
Figure 11: Percentage of internet users, ages 16 to 54, who have created a user profile on a social network, 2006-2008
Figure 12 : Worldwide monthly unique visitors on top social networking sites
Figure 13: Uses on social networks
Figure 14: Evolution of time spent by category on IM and member communities in the UK
Figure 15: Evolution of time spent by site in one year in the UK
Figure 16: New modes of communication in social networks
Figure 17: Frequency of use by type of service
Figure 18: Use of SMS and use of the Internet of UK adults, Q1 2008
Figure 19: Frequency of use by type of communication: vocal or data
Figure 20: Frequency of use by type of channel: mobile, fixed
Figure 21: Trade-off between PC and mobile
Figure 22: Best configuration
Figure 23: Interest in address book functionalities: preseYnce / availability, device characteristics and location
Figure 24: Example screenshots of mobile IM services
Figure 25: Mobile online activities adoption, EU 2008
Figure 26: Percentage penetration forecast for mobile IM in the UK
Figure 27: Benchmark of instant messaging services offered by operators
Figure 28: i-mode subscription ratio for NTT DOCOMO users
Figure 29: mapping of current mobile IM strategies
Figure 30: Description of T-Mobile UKs IM specific pricing offer
Figure 31: Description of T-Mobile USAs messaging bundle pricing offer
Figure 32: Description of which services are included in which plans for Sprint
Figure 33: Benchmark of pricing strategy used for IM services
Figure 34: Everything Data plan offered by Sprint
Figure 35: Top social networks on mobile phones in the UK
Figure 36: Top social networks on PCs in the UK
Figure 37 : Facebook on mobile
Figure 38: Itsmy
Figure 39 : Twitter on mobile
Figure 40: Penetration of selected mobile Web activities
Figure 41: Penetration growth of selected mobile Web activities
Figure 42: Penetration of mobile social networking among mobile users (% of worldwide mobile subscribers)
Figure 43: Benchmark of SNS offered by operators
Figure 44: MySocialPlace by Orange
Figure 45 : % of mobile social networking users who exclusively use social media
Figure 46: Evolution of mobile voice traffic in Europe
Figure 47: Communication modes by type of interpersonal relation
Figure 48: Benchmark of unlimited voice calls available in the market
Figure 49: The fring IP system
Figure 50: the three main components of RCS
Figure 51: example of companies supporting RCS
Figure 52: the enhanced phonebook experience
Figure 53: the enhanced messaging experience
Figure 54: Development of RCS and mobile IM interoperability
Figure 55: Technical description of OpenSocial
Figure 56: Overview of OpenID
Figure 57: Most popular UK mobile social networking-related activities
Figure 58: Share of monthly time spent online dedicated to communications*and community in the U.S
Figure 59: Average Traffic for an active MSN user
Figure 60: Type of communication used when switching from fixed IM
Figure 61: communication through both RCS services and mobile SNS
Figure 62: Operator positioning regards deploying RCS/SNS services |
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