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Next Gen TV 2020

03/07/2012
Still up for grabs
Next Gen TV 2020


IDATE has published a report that draws on our various works on new forms of TV. It provides readers with a more in-depth analysis of what the future likely holds for television markets between now and 2020, and allows them to identify the core disruptions and innovations that will alter the TV/video market as we know it.

“We will see three distribution models emerge: that of packager (like what cable and satellite do today), the digital store (an open platform that makes all content available to viewers) and self-supply (thanks to the destruction of the exclusive link between the access network and the TV set),” says Gilles Fontaine, IDATE’s Deputy CEO and Project Manager for this report.

He adds that, “New on-demand services will increase their share of the global video market from 3% in 2011 to 12% in 2020 – enjoying an especially high share in developed countries. By 2020, connected TV will be a significant market and will account for 63% of the new OTT services market, with viewing on the PC taking a backseat. The upshot, then, is that managed networks’ share of the new services market will be in decline”.

Between 2011 and 2020, the global videos services market will grow by an average 4.7% a year

According to our modelling, the global TV services market will total €355 billion in 2020, compared to €233 billion in 2011, which translates into an average annual growth rate of 4.7%.

Growth will vary from region to region: the top five European markets, along with Japan and the United States together represented 80% of the global video services market in 2011, but their share will drop to 60% by 2020.

Growth rates in developed countries will also vary:
In the United States (CAGR for 2011-2020 of 0.3%), the maturity of the pay-TV market and fierce competition between OTT services will weigh on the sector’s revenue.

In Europe, we believe that Italy and Spain’s live TV markets still have more room to grow than the French and British markets. We also posit that the structure of Germany’s cable market will continue to hinder the development of a national pay-TV market there.

Gilles FONTAINE
Deputy CEO, IDATE
g.fontaine@idate.org

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