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FTTx & LTE Worldwide Forecasts

25/10/2010
306 million homes passed for FTTH/B and 207 million subscribers for LTE by 2014



The ultra-fast broadband market continues to develop quickly in most regions around the globe, in terms of both subscribers and homes passed.

At the end of 2009, there were close to 40 million FTTH/B subscribers around the world, or 15% more than the year before. Over the next five years, this momentum is likely to translate into a significant increase in the number of homes passed: by the end of 2014, there will be close to 306 million homes passed for FTTH/B, of which more than half will still be located in Asia and 18% in Western Europe.

• On the matter of subscribers, Europe (including Russia) is home to 3.5 million FTTH/B customers, with some countries, such as Russia, Lithuania and Slovakia, boasting a particularly dynamic market. Eastern Europe is in fact expected to have more fibre subscribers than North America starting in 2012.

• Elsewhere, and especially in Asia, marketing the services has become operators’ primary concern, since coverage rates have already reached the saturation point in the most advanced markets. HKBN in Hong Kong is the operator marketing the most competitively priced offer of anywhere in the world: access at 100 Mbps for 16 EUR a month.

• In 2014, 18 countries will have deployed optical fibre networks to more than 50% of homes, which is 10 more than at the end of 2009.

We forecast more than 207 million LTE subscribers worldwide by the end of 2014

• LTE services will be launched by late 2011/early 2012 in the EU-5 and China, and before the end of 2010 in the US and Japan. Also factored in are the recent commercial launches in Scandinavia.

• India, meanwhile, which announced 3G and 4G spectrum auctions in April 2010, cannot be ignored if only because of its huge population. But IDATE does not expect to see a significant level of LTE adoption there any time before 2015.

• As depicted in the table below, by the end of 2014, we expect more than 10% of the total subscriber base to be accessing LTE networks – albeit to varying degrees depending on the country. More specifically, LTE subscriber numbers are forecast to increase from 27 million to close to 207 million between 2012 and 2014 (EU-5+Scandinavia, Japan, South Korea, China and the United States).





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Frédéric PUJOL
Head of the Mobile Services
P: +33 (0)467 144 450
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Roland MONTAGNE
Director of the Telecom Business unit
P: +33 (0)467 144 426
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