IDATE News

N�522 - Le march� mondial des services t�l�coms -

2010-08-23

Dans la derni�re edition du rapport ?Le march� mondial des services telecoms? que l?IDATE publie semestriellement, l?�quipe d?experts de l?IDATE analysent la reprise g�n�rale et ses impacts sur le march� des services t�l�coms. Il s'av�re n�anmoins que les services t�l�coms n'ont pas �t� �pargn�s par la crise. Elle a souvent aggrav� le d�clin de la t�l�phonie fixe dans les pays avanc�s ; par ailleurs, les services mobiles n'ont pas pu porter la croissance et ont �galement accus� une baisse sur plusieurs march�s avanc�s.

� Nous continuons de tabler sur une reprise graduelle en 2010 �, commente Carole Manero, chef de projet et consultante senior � l?IDATE, � tir�e par la croissance des �conomies �mergentes, et d'un retour � la croissance en 2011 �.

Les tendances par march�
La croissance annuelle en valeur du march� mondial des services t�l�coms s'est �lev�e � 0.6 % en 2009, soit un niveau inf�rieur � celui que nous avions anticip� dans notre pr�c�dente publication.
Apr�s la baisse de croissance amorc�e en 2008 (+3.5 %, en recul de 2 points par rapport au taux de croissance en 2007), le march� des services de t�l�communications a connu un nouveau ralentissement en 2009, avec une progression inf�rieure � 1 %. Ce r�sultat est autant le fait d'une conjoncture �conomique difficile que d'ajustements structurels li�s � la maturit� du secteur dans un certain nombre de segments et de r�gions. On peut ais�ment discerner dans cette croissance positive, l� o� nombre de secteurs ont connu des revers importants, une forme de r�sistance � la conjoncture �conomique. S'ils n'ont pas �t� �pargn�s par la crise, les services de t�l�communications ont n�anmoins su capitaliser sur la logique d'abonnement qui sous-tend leur mod�le �conomique.
En 2008, le march� mondial s'�levait � 1 340.3 milliards USD ; il a atteint 1 348.9 milliards USD en 2009, soit une progression de 0.6 %. Le march� mondial est de plus en plus domin� par les services mobiles (55 %) tandis que, dans les services fixes, le basculement de la t�l�phonie vers Internet et plus particuli�rement le haut d�bit, s'acc�l�re.
La croissance des revenus tir�s des services mobiles continue de s'infl�chir. Pass�e de 11 % en 2007 � 3 % en 2009, la croissance mondiale du march� des services mobiles a encore enregistr� un ralentissement sensible en 2009, pour s'afficher � 3 %. Elle a ainsi chut� des deux tiers ces deux derni�res ann�es. Ce r�sultat global peut appara�tre tr�s raisonnable alors que plus de la moiti� de la plan�te est �quip�e et que la p�n�tration d�passe 80 % dans la plupart des march�s industriels. Toutefois, la comparaison avec la dynamique du parc (+15.5 % en 2009) laisse entrevoir la pression exerc�e sur le revenu par abonn�. Elle rel�ve d'un effet m�canique, avec l'afflux massif de clients � bas revenus des pays �mergents ; cette pression est toutefois �galement sensible dans les march�s avanc�s, notamment en Europe. Le nombre de clients mobiles dans le monde s'�tablit � 4.6 milliards (soit une progression mensuelle de pr�s de 51 millions de clients !).
Avec un chiffre d'affaires total estim� � 737.5 milliards USD en 2009, les services mobiles demeurent le principal moteur de la croissance totale. Ils p�sent pour plus de la moiti� du chiffre d'affaires des services t�l�coms mondiaux cons�cutivement depuis quatre ann�es (en 2009, leur poids s'�tablit � 55 %) et comptent pour plus du double de la t�l�phonie fixe depuis 2009.
Le d�clin de la t�l�phonie fixe, engag� depuis 2002, s'est de nouveau acc�l�r� en 2009, avec un recul de 7 % et des revenus tomb�s � 348.6 milliards USD, pesant d�sormais en valeur un peu plus d'un quart du total des services de t�l�communications (26 %) contre plus d'un tiers en 2006 (33 %). En trois ans, la t�l�phonie fixe aura chut� de 14 % en valeur. La substitution de la t�l�phonie fixe par le mobile, doubl�e d'un transfert vers l'IP, est responsable du recul du nombre de lignes fixes connect�es et de la baisse accentu�e du revenu moyen par ligne.
Avec des revenus de 262.9 milliards USD pour 2009, les autres services (Internet et donn�es) continuent de gagner du terrain, tir�s en particulier par les services Internet. Leur poids dans l'ensemble des services t�l�coms a r�guli�rement mais lentement augment�, � raison de 0.4 � 0.8 point par an depuis 2006. Il s'est �tabli � 19.5 % en 2009 au lieu de 17.5 % en 2006 et moins de 15 % en 2001. Leur contribution � la croissance n'a, de loin et pour la premi�re fois en 2009, pas compens� la perte enregistr�e dans les services de t�l�phonie fixe (26.7 milliards USD de perte pour la voix fixe contre 12.1 milliards USD de gain pour les donn�es fixes). Pourtant, l'essor des services Internet, et particuli�rement celui du haut d�bit, est remarquable. En volume, le nombre de clients haut d�bit fixe a encore bondi en 2009 de pr�s de 58.4 millions (+14 %), soit un afflux de 4.9 millions de clients par mois au niveau mondial. � ce rythme, nous pr�voyons que le cap des 500 millions de clients haut d�bit devrait �tre franchi courant 2010. Les acc�s haut d�bit repr�sentaient, fin 2009, plus de trois quarts des acc�s Internet dans le monde (77 %).

Carole Manero
Chef de projet
c.manero@idate.org

Si vous souhaitez plus d'informations, veuillez cliquer ici ou contactez nous par mail ou t�l�phone

N�521 - Le march� mondial de la t�l�vision -

2010-08-27

Dans la derni�re edition du rapport semestriel � Le march� mondial de la t�l�vion � l?IDATE estime le march� mondial de la t�l�vision pour l?ann�e 2009 � 259.3 milliards EUR, en recul de 0.5% par rapport � 2008. En effet, l?industrie n?�chappe pas aux cons�quences de la crise �conomique mondiale ; celle-ci affecte en particulier les recettes publicitaires capt�es par le m�dia t�l�vision.

� Le march� mondial de la t�l�vision est, en 2009, principalement affect� par la chute des recettes publicitaires de 7.9% que ne suffisent pas � compenser les revenus issus de la t�l�vision � p�age et le financement public �, commente Florence Le Borgne, directrice de la business unit TV & Contenu num�rique au sein de l?IDATE� Ces deux sources de revenus augmentent respectivement de 6.9% et 3.7%. �

Jusqu?en 2008, la publicit� est de loin le premier mode de financement de l?industrie, g�n�rant pr�s de 48% des revenus du secteur, contre pr�s de 43% pour la t�l�vision � p�age et 9.4% pour le financement public. En 2009, la situation s?inverse et la t�l�vision � p�age compte pour 46% contre 44% pour la publicit�. Dans les ann�es � venir, l?IDATE pr�voit une accentuation de la tendance et estime que la t�l�vision � p�age devrait g�n�rer plus de 48% des recettes du march� mondial de la t�l�vision � l?horizon 2014.

Les recettes publicitaires par m�dia

Dans un contexte de crise �conomique mondiale, les investissements publicitaires tous m�dias confondus reculent en 2009 de 11% sur un an. La t�l�vision, qui devient le premier m�dia investi devant la presse, accuse une baisse de recettes publicitaires de pr�s de 8%. Pour autant, le poids de la t�l�vision dans le march� publicitaire (tous m�dias confondus) progresse de 1.4 point � 41.4%.

La presse et la radio enregistrent les plus fortes chutes des investissements publicitaires capt�s au niveau mondial, avec des baisses respectives de 17.8% et 10.7%. Sur la p�riode 2006-2009, le poids de la presse dans le march� publicitaire mondial passe de pr�s de 44.7% � 37.4% tandis que celui de la radio passe de 8.9% � 8.4%.

A contrario, Internet continue d?attirer de plus en plus d?investissements publicitaires, avec une hausse des d�penses de 3% pour un poids dans le march� publicitaire mondial de pr�s de 12.8% contre 7.2% en 2006.

Chef de projet
Florence Le Borgne
f.leborgne@idate.org

Pour plus d'informations suivez ce lien ou contactez nous par mail ou t�l�phone.

N�520 - M2M -

2010-08-17

M2M worldwide market
Worldwide market represents 14 billion EUR in 2010

IDATE just published the report M2M which indicates that this market is growing very fast after the global downturn. In 2010, the cellular market should represent 53 million modules worldwide for a total market of 14 billion EUR (of which 3.3 billion EUR for connectivity). The economy recovery will drive the M2M market with around 25% in value and 40% in volume (cellular modules, 25% for satellite).

�2009 saw the arrival of such consumer electronics as connected e-readers and connected Portable Navigation Devices (PNDs) in the M2M field.�comments Samuel Ropert, senior consultant at IDATE. �Their success obviously drives the M2M market, mostly in volume.�

Rapid growth in M2M market despite downturn
� In volume terms, the overall M2M market is growing very fast in all wireless markets (cellular and satellite) and in all regions. 53 million cellular modules and over 1.2 million satellite M2M modules are expected to have been sold by the end of this year. Overall growth for the next four years should top 33% per year for cellular modules, reaching 165 million in 2014, and exceed 29% for satellite modules. In 2014, M2M SIM cards will probably represent 2.5% of total SIM cards (human and machine) and over 8.1% of total SIM cards in Europe.
� Growth is clearly lower in terms of value, because new applications are generally less demanding in terms of bandwidth and/or of advanced features. In addition, a large share of the growth will come from major deployments by reference players in their respective industry which should benefit from bulk purchasing. The worldwide cellular M2M market represents 14 billion EUR in 2010, with most revenues coming from software and IT services. It should rise by 23% per year to reach 32.5 billion EUR in 2014. The worldwide satellite M2M market is valued at 1.03 billion EUR in 2010 and will grow by 27% per year to reach 2.7 billion EUR in 2014.
� The connectivity market for mobile telcos represents 3.1 billion EUR worldwide for 2010 (over 37% for Europe 27). This market should grow by a little over 24% per year during the next four years.
� The main reasons associated to this dynamic growth in 2010 refer directly to economy recovery and the consumer electronic devices arrival.

Samuel ROPERT
Project Manager
s.ropert@idate.org

N�519 - Les strat�gies quadruple-screen des cha�nes de t�l�vision -

2010-08-13

L?IDATE vient de publier l?�tude � Les strat�gies quadruple-screen des cha�nes TV � en conduisant une analyse approfondie sur les diff�rents acteurs traditionnels de l?industrie audiovisuelle.

� Ce rapport permet d?avoir une vue d?ensemble sur les diff�rentes strat�gies de diversification sur les quatre �crans. Le PC reste actuellement l?�cran privil�gi� par les cha�nes et les consommateurs pour la TV de rattrapage�, commente Florence Le Borgne, Directrice de la Business Unit TV & Contenu num�rique, � et Internet reste le principal moteur de la croissance pour les services de vid�os � la demande avec plus de la moiti� des services disponibles en Europe. �

La tendance � la d�lin�arisation des contenus
Parmi les nouvelles formes de consommation, la d�lin�arisation des contenus est sans conteste une des tendances majeures. Les possibilit�s de consommer les programmes t�l�vis�s � un moment diff�rent de leur diffusion � l'antenne sont d�sormais nombreuses � travers le parc d'enregistreurs num�riques, les services de t�l�vision de rattrapage ou encore les services de VoD ? tous deux disponibles sur Internet ou directement sur le t�l�viseur.
Prolongement naturel des anciens magn�toscopes, les enregistreurs num�riques figurent d�sormais en bonne position parmi l'�quipement des m�nages. Le taux de p�n�tration des Digital Video Recorder (DVR) est ainsi en constante augmentation, principalement soutenu par la politique des acteurs de la t�l�vision � p�age, notamment les c�blo-op�rateurs et les acteurs satellite, qui int�grent de plus en plus commun�ment cette fonctionnalit� en s�rie dans leurs set-top boxes. Cette strat�gie est motiv�e par le fait que les abonn�s �quip�s d?un DVR g�n�rent un ARPU plus �lev� et pr�sentent un churn plus faible que les autres abonn�s.
Par ailleurs, les lecteurs de DVD moyen et haut de gamme int�grent d�sormais la fonction d?enregistrement num�rique tandis que les consommateurs ont �galement la possibilit� d?acheter un terminal d�di� comme par exemple les produits TiVo sur le march� am�ricain.
Parmi les march�s matures de la t�l�vision, le Royaume-Uni pr�sente le plus fort taux de p�n�tration des DVR, avec plus de 35% des foyers �quip�s en septembre 2009. A la m�me date, les Etats-Unis ont franchi le seuil des 30% de foyers TV �quip�s contre 21% pour la France.
En parall�le, les services de m�dias audiovisuels � la demande se sont multipli�s dans la p�riode r�cente sur tous les principaux march�s de la t�l�vision. En particulier, Internet est le principal moteur de cette croissance : fin 2008, Internet rassemblait 56.6% des services � la demande disponibles en Europe (source : OEA/DDM La Vid�o � la demande et la t�l�vision de rattrapage en Europe, septembre 2009). Sur le t�l�viseur, les acteurs de l?IPTV sont les plus dynamiques en termes de lancement de services � la demande. Ils repr�sentaient ainsi 30% des services disponibles en Europe fin 2008. Le c�ble et le satellite sont beaucoup moins actifs pour le moment, tandis que les services de TNT ne sont actuellement pr�sents qu'en Grande-Bretagne.
En l?espace de deux ans, plus de 500 nouveaux services de m�dias audiovisuels � la demande ont vu le jour en Europe sur les diff�rents r�seaux ; Internet a �t� le support le plus dynamique, passant de 94 services fin 2006 � 394 services fin 2008, soit plus d'un quadruplement en deux ans.

Si la consommation en diff�r� est encore tr�s loin de rivaliser avec la consommation en direct, elle est n�anmoins en progression rapide aussi bien en nombre d'utilisateurs (+22.3% entre le dernier trimestre 2008 et le dernier trimestre 2009 aux Etats-Unis) qu'en dur�e de consommation mensuelle par individu (+28.3% sur la m�me p�riode). Les Etats-Unis comptaient ainsi, fin 2009, 90.8 millions de consommateurs de programmes en diff�r�, chacun regardant en moyenne pr�s de 9h15 de programmes en diff�r� chaque mois (553 minutes) (source : Nielsen ? Three Screen Report Q4 2009).
En France, alors que la dur�e d'�coute par individu s'�levait � 3h25 par jour en 2009 pour la t�l�vision en direct (source : M�diam�trie ? M�diamat ? Individus �g�s de 4 ans et plus), la consommation de programmes d�lin�aris�s s'�tablissait � 7 minutes (dur�e d'�coute quotidienne chez les individus �g�s de 15 ans et plus, source : M�diam�trie ? Global TV Vague 3 ? avril-mai 2009), dont 3 minutes de programmes enregistr�s (magn�toscope, DVD enregistreur ou PVR), 3 minutes en catch-up TV et 1 minute de programmes stock�s ou grav�s.

En France, les utilisateurs de catch-up TV ont d�pass� les 10 millions sur la p�riode courant d?avril � mai 2009 contre 4 millions entre octobre et novembre 2007, soit une hausse de 160% en l?espace d?un an et demi. Apr�s les cha�nes hertziennes historiques, les cha�nes de la TNT ainsi que les cha�nes th�matiques ont lanc� des services de t�l�vision de rattrapage tandis que le taux moyen de reprise des services plus anciens continue de progresser.

Chef de Projet
Florence Le Borgne
f.leborgne@idate.org

N�518 - Serious Games -

2010-07-09

Serious Games
Un chiffre d'affaires mondial de 10 milliard EUR en 2015

L'IDATE vient de publier l'�tude � Serious Game � en conduisant une analyse approfondie sur les diff�rents march�s et ses perspectives jusqu'� 2015. Les principaux acteurs du Serious Games sont pr�sent�s ainsi que les derni�res tendances du secteur.

� Ce rapport permet d'avoir une vue d'ensemble sur le march� du Serious Game en analysant les impacts sur la cha�ne de valeur de l'industrie du jeu vid�o et en pr�sentant des nombreux mod�les �conomiques�, commente Laurent Michaud, Responsable de la practice Digital Home Entertainment, � A ce jour la plupart des Serious Games sont h�berg�s sur l'ordinateur personnel, cependant le mobile prend d�j� un r�le plus important dans les pays �mergents et c'est terminal pr�destin� au d�veloppement d'applications Serious Games. �

Le secteur du serious game devrait conna�tre une croissance significative � moyen terme. L'IDATE estime qu'aujourd'hui ce secteur g�n�re dans le monde un chiffre d'affaires de 1,5 milliard EUR. D'ici 2015, ses revenus devraient �tre presque 7 fois plus importants qu'en 2010. Son taux de croissance annuel s'�l�ve � 47% sur la p�riode 2010-2015. L'ann�e 2013 devrait �tre marqu�e par une acc�l�ration de la prise en compte du serious game dans le milieu professionnel, et principalement chez les PME encore peu sensibilis�es � ces outils.

Une cha�ne de valeur originale
La cha�ne de valeur du serious game est plus r�duite que celle du jeu vid�o traditionnel. Comme �voqu� pr�c�demment, l'organisation la plus r�pandue se pr�sente sous la forme d'un acteur qui prend en charge le d�veloppement, l'�dition, la distribution et la vente de ses titres. Beaucoup d'acteurs n'ont d'ailleurs dans leur catalogue qu'un seul titre, dont la commercialisation et l'impl�mentation chez le client occupent la totalit� de la force de vente et le support. Les outils aujourd'hui encore les plus utilis�s dans ce secteur peuvent �tre qualifi� de Low-End, accessibles �conomiquement � des d�veloppeurs dont les moyens financiers ne permettent pas d'acqu�rir des moteurs de jeux co�tant parfois plus de 250 000 USD. A ce stade de d�veloppement du secteur du serious game, la cha�ne de valeur est plus ax�e sur le logiciel et sur le service que sur le terminal. A cet �gard, la plupart des serious games sont destin�s � �tre h�berg�s sur un ordinateur personnel. Il en existe encore assez peu sur les autres plateformes. Le t�l�phone mobile est encore le terminal qui offre aujourd'hui l'alternative la plus int�ressante au PC. C'est d'ailleurs la plateforme de pr�dilection de d�veloppement de serious game dans les pays �mergents, o� la population se dote plus ais�ment d'un t�l�phone que d'un ordinateur. Dans le secteur du serious game, le logiciel domine encore largement le service qui y est associ�, quand il y en a un. C'est-�-dire que l'utilisateur du serious game est encore le plus souvent isol� face � son jeu, qui finalement se consomme seul et en mode local par opposition au mode online. Or d'une part, le serious game n'a pas vocation � remplacer les modes d'information, de communication ou de formation existants mais plut�t � les compl�ter et � leur faire b�n�ficier de l'interactivit�, des interfaces graphiques et des capacit�s du jeu vid�o � immerger un utilisateur dans un environnement o� il sera plus r�ceptif aux message qui lui seront transmis. D'autre part, le caract�re social d'un serious game, qui induit le multiutilisateur voire le massivement multijoueur, repr�sente l'enjeu majeur dans les ann�es � venir pour le "joueur" comme pour le professionnel qui l'encadre.

De fait, le serious game ne doit pas se d�partir :
� d'un accompagnement professionnel dans ses usages ;
� d'un service associ� (autre que la gestion de l'application et de ses fonctionnalit�s en
mode "Software As A Service") qui propose :
- de former les futurs utilisateurs du serious game, qu'ils soient professionnels citoyens,
consommateurs ou �tudiants ;
- d'adapter r�guli�rement l'application aux cas d'usages ;
- de param�trer le jeu � distance ou non en fonction de l'utilisateur cibl�, patient,
citoyen ou apprenant ;
- de recueillir les r�sultats d'utilisation de l'application s�rieuse, de les interpr�ter, de les
restituer et de les r�injecter dans le gameplay pour faire progresser l'utilisateur.

Laurent Michaud
Chef de Projet
l.michaud@idate.org

N�516 - LTE forecasts worldwide -

2010-06-14

IDATE forecasts the rates of LTE adoption in 2012 and 2015. �By �LTE adoption�, we mean the number of subscribers who access the mobile data via the LTE network.� says Fr�d�ric Pujol, Mobile Broadband Practice Director, �As at end 2015, we expect 13% of the subscriber base to be accessing LTE networks with discrepancies depending on countries.�

More specifically, LTE subscribers should grow in the 2012-2015 period from 27 million to close to 300 million at end 2015 (EU5+Scandinavia, Japan, South Korea, China, USA).

� The GSA (Global Suppliers Association) is reporting 110 LTE network commitments in 48 countries at end May 2010. Up to 22 LTE networks should be in service by end 2010 and up to 37 LTE networks should be in service by end 2012.

� We based our estimates on estimated commercial launches of LTE services in 5 distinct regions/countries i.e, the USA, the EU5 plus Scandinavia, Japan, South Korea and China. They all have different backgrounds which affect their adoption of LTE and latest news is mentioned in each sub-sections.

� We think LTE services will not be launched before end 2011-2012 in EU5 and China, and not before end 2010-2011 in the USA, Japan and South Korea. We took into account recent commercial launches in Scandinavia.

� Regarding India which started 3G and BWA spectrum auctions in April 2010, the country cannot be ignored because of its huge population. IDATE expect LTE adoption could be driven by TD-LTE if BWA spectrum can be used for this technology in India.

N�515 - World Telecom Equipment Market -

2010-06-09

Following a productive year in 2008, the telecom equipment market posted a decline worse than anticipated shrinking by 3.6% in infrastructure and by 9.9% in mobile handsets during 2009. In 2010, the global telecom equipment market growth rate is expected to remain stable as operators will still be cautious and wait for a gradual expected return to growth.

� The year 2009 was without a doubt a tough one for the telecom equipment market, as anticipated. With the confirmation of the warnings that began being sent out in the summer of 2008, equipment manufacturers were heavily affected displaying weak or bad performances. In particular, Nortel now under bankruptcy has been the first victim of the gloomy market conditions. Indeed, with the new economic conditions investments schedules were carefully revised. And operators had to establish priorities in network expenses.

� For the first time in 5 years, operators' capital expenditures declined in 2009 by 4.8%. The worldwide investment spending by telecom operators significantly decreased during 2009 totalling to 174 billion EUR. Both fixed and mobile CapEx reduced, by -4.0% and -5.5% respectively. This decrease is a combination of facts with the strong currency (US) devaluations, the gloomy economic context, the end of a five year network infrastructure investment cycle, the weak momentum in broadband access backing and the awaited 3G licence auctions.

� Operators' objectives in terms of very high speed broadband and mobile broadband penetrations will help boost up the telecom equipment market. Given the announcements made by major incumbents to massively deploy FTTx lines in the United Kingdom and USA, the fixed broadband access equipment market will increase gradually over the next two years and accelerate until 2015. In the mobile sector, despite LTE network deployment schedules and 3G/4G licenses awards - long awaited, the mobile access market is expected to hardly grow in 2010.

� In 2010, the global telecom equipment market growth rate is expected to remain stable as operators will still be cautious and wait for a gradual expected return to growth. Basically, operators' expenses will be selective while keeping their investments in IP-based equipment and optical transmission in order to meet the ever-increasing bandwidth requirements of businesses and consumers. Operators' objectives in terms of very high speed broadband and mobile broadband penetrations will help boost up the telecom equipment market. Given the announcements made by major incumbents to massively deploy FTTx lines in the United Kingdom, Brazil and China, the fixed broadband access equipment market will increase gradually over the next two years and accelerate until 2015. In the mobile sector, with LTE network deployment schedules and 3G/4G licenses awards - long awaited, the mobile access market is expected to slightly grow in 2010.

Figures included in the IDATE News (to be downloaded)
> Fixed CapEx: Contribution of each region, 2009 (million EUR)
> 2009 Handset providers market shares - Worldwide
> 2009 Top 10 Network equipment providers in terms of revenues - Worldwide

N�514 - Les march�s du Tr�s Haut D�bit progressent rapidement -

2010-06-02

Le march� mondial du tr�s haut d�bit, sans conna�tre de bouleversement au cours du deuxi�me semestre 2009, a continu� � �voluer de mani�re r�guli�re dans la plupart des r�gions au regard de l'�volution du nombre d'abonn�s ou de foyers raccordables.

"Mais au-del� des chiffres, qui refl�tent la situation actuelle, plusieurs annonces faites soit par des op�rateurs priv�s, soit par des gouvernements, confirment l'int�r�t g�n�ral pour le tr�s haut d�bit", souligne Roland Montagne, Directeur de la Business Unit Telecom de l'IDATE.

Selon Val�rie Chaillou, Consultante senior � l'IDATE, "la croissance du march� FTTH s'est en effet confirm�e au cours du dernier semestre 2009 puisque l'on compte � la fin de cette ann�e pr�s de 41 millions d'abonn�s FTTH/B travers le monde, ce qui repr�sente une croissance sup�rieure � 15% sur 6 mois" (*).

Cette dynamique devrait de plus se traduire, au cours des 5 ann�es � venir, par des progressions cons�quentes des nombres de foyers raccordables : fin 2014, on recensera pr�s de 306 millions de foyers raccordables en FTTH/B � travers le monde, dont toujours plus de la moiti� seront localis�s dans les pays asiatiques et 18% en Europe de l'Ouest.

� Concernant les abonn�s, l'Europe de l'Est, qui d�passe d�j� l'Europe de l'Ouest, avec plus de 3,5 millions d'abonn�s FTTH/B contre environ 2 millions, devrait compter encore plus d'abonn�s que l'Am�rique du Nord � partir de 2012. Certains pays de la zone, comme la Lituanie par exemple, sont particuli�rement dynamiques et, outre des d�ploiements rapides et �tendus, r�ussissent � convaincre rapidement les foyers raccordables � souscrire aux nouvelles offres d'acc�s � tr�s haut d�bit.

� Ailleurs, comme en Asie, c'est justement cette commercialisation des services qui est devenu le principal enjeu des op�rateurs puisque les taux de couverture ont d�sormais atteint la saturation dans les pays les plus avanc�s. A Hong Kong, HKBN est l'op�rateur qui propose l'offre tarifaire la plus comp�titive au monde : 1 Gbps pour 26 USD.

� En 2014, 18 pays auront un taux de couverture, correspondant au nombre de foyers raccordables sur le nombre total de foyers, sup�rieur � 50%, soit 10 de plus qu'� fin 2009.

___

* On compte par ailleurs plus de 63 millions d?abonn�s FTTx en int�grant les technologies suivantes : FTTH/B, VDSL, FTTLA, FTTx+LAN.

Top 10 des pays comptant le plus d'abonn�s FTTH/B � fin 2009

Rang # Pays = Abonn�s FTTH/B
1 # Japan = 17 140 000
2 # South Korea = 9 228 300
3 # USA = 5 700 000
4 # Russia = 3 040 000
5 # Taiwan = 1 675 000
6 # Hong Kong = 770 000
7 # China(1) = 710 000
8 # Sweden = 537 100
9 # Italy = 325 000
10#France = 308 200
________
(1) Ne sont pas comptabilis�s ici les quelques 17 millions d'abonn�s FTTx+LAN en Chine.
Source: IDATE

Classement des 10 principaux acteurs du FTTx dans le monde � fin 2009 (en nombre d'abonn�s)

Rang # Op�rateur / Principale technologie & architecture = Abonn�s FTTx
1 # NTT (Japan) / FTTH/B GEPON = 12 779 000
2 # China Telecom(1) / FTTH - FTTx+LAN EPON LAN/DSL = 11 160 000
3 # China Netcom(2) / FTTH - FTTx+LAN EPON LAN/DSL = 5 590 000
4 # KT (South Korea) / FTTB EPON/GEPON = 4 630 000
5 # Verizon (USA) / FTTH BPON/GPON = 3 430 000
6 # SK Broadband (South Korea) / FTTB/LAN GEPON = 3 032 099
7 # ER Telecom (Russia) / FTTB = 2 140 000
8 # AT&T (USA) / FTTN VDSL2 = 2 100 000
9 # Chunghwa Telecom (Taiwan) / FTTB GEPON = 1 639 824
10# LG Powercom (South Korea) / FTTH/B EPON/GEPON = 1 566 206
______________
(1) dont 560 000 abonn�s FTTH et 10.6 millions abonn�s FTTx/LAN.
(2) dont 90 000 abonn�s FTTH et 5.6 millions abonn�s FTTx/LAN.
Source: IDATE

N�513 - Mobile Network Saturation -

2010-05-20

The mobile data market is taking off at last. The significant growth in mobile data traffic has been made possible by the combination of advanced technological and marketing enablers, with most of them reaching "satisfactory" status levels. 3G coverage has really expanded. The massive adoption of smartphones (including the iPhone) partly explains part this growth. These devices have recently improved and are customized to facilitate mobile data and especially video and social networking services. Dedicated tariff plans are also making headway. Application stores which were in the spotlight in 2009 provide easy ways to access additional content and software on mobiles.

�However�, says Fr�d�ric Pujol, Mobile Broadband Head of Practice at IDATE, �related mobile data traffic has triggered congestion�. Network congestion leads to dropped calls and interruptions to Internet access. Certain sources reported MNOs congestion problems in urban dense areas late 2009. Frustrated or dissatisfied customers may thus choose to churn, thus threatening MNOs profitability.

To cope with congestion problems, mobile operators have to combine several solutions depending on the characteristics of their networks and the costs incurred. They also need to revise their strategies and consider this issue globally from technical, marketing and strategic standpoints. Among the technical options available, acceleration of 4G/LTE deployment is currently the favoured solution when compared to WiMax. However, we estimate it will not be widely available before 2013. Offloading data traffic to Wi-Fi networks is likely in the meantime as it is cost effective and can be accomplished almost immediately. In addition, new pricing schemes are required in the coming months. They should be based on customer usage.

�Given traffic assumptions based on average per user consumption and estimated capacity�, says Carole Manero, Project leader of the report, �we estimate that, on the whole, MNOs will be able to support the growth in mobile data traffic�. Congestion problems may however arise in dense areas and at peak hours. MNOs that decided to postpone network investments in 2008-2009 because of the global downturn will also have to speed up networks improvements to address congestion issues.

N�512B - Les initiatives de l'IDATE se d�clinent sur le net -

2010-05-11

A l'occasion de la sortie de la 10�me �dition de son DigiWorld Yearbook, l'IDATE fait le point sur ses derni�res initiatives sur la toile. � Les diff�rents outils de communication d�sormais facilement accessible sur Internet nous permettent d'affiner consid�rablement notre communication autour de nos diff�rentes activit�s de conseil, de publications d'�tudes de march� et de promotions d'un d�bat international sur les enjeux �conomiques et strat�giques des technologies de l'Information� souligne Yves Gassot, Directeur G�n�ral de l'IDATE

Le DigiWorld Yearbook se d�cline en version eBook, iPhone et iPad

Cette �dition anniversaire est en effet l'occasion de proposer l'ouvrage dans diff�rentes versions. Au c�t� de l'�dition papier disponible en version fran�aise et anglaise, plusieurs versions num�riques, d�velopp�es gr�ce au savoir faire de la soci�t� Aquafadas (www.aquafadas.com), sp�cialis�e dans l'�dition num�rique, sont d�sormais propos�es : une version eBook, permettant un acc�s dynamique et une lecture sur ordinateur ou certains readers et les versions d�di�es � l'iPhone et l'iPad.

> www.digiworld.org : toutes les informations sur le site d�di� au DigiWorld Yearbook 2010

Le livre et ses diff�rentes versions peuvent �tre command�s sur le site d�di� ou via le site de l'IDATE, ainsi que sur l'Appstore aux tarifs suivants : Livre papier : 29,90 Eur TTC - eBook et iPad: 24,90 Eur TTC - iPhone : 14,90 Eur TTC

Retrouvez l'actualit� de l'IDATE sur le net

Plusieurs initiatives sont venues �toffer le site historique de l'IDATE. D�sormais plusieurs moyens d'acc�s sont propos�s aux Internautes en fonction de leurs attentes :
� Le site g�n�ral vers l'ensemble des activit�s de l'IDATE : www.idate.org
� Le site d�di� � la promotion et � la commercialisation des rapports publi�s par les analystes et consultants de l'IDATE : www.idate-research.com
� Le site d�di� � la conf�rence annuelle de l'IDATE : www.digiworldsummit.com
� Le site d�di� � la revue d?analyse �conomique Communications & Strategies : www.comstrat.org
� Le blog des analyses des sp�cialistes de l'IDATE : www.idate.fr/blog
� Et pour tout ceux qui veulent suivre nos activit�s d'encore plus pr�s, les pages Facebook, Linkedin et Twitter de l'IDATE et du DigiWorld Summit

N�512 - L'IDATE publie la 10�me �dition de son Yearbook -

2010-05-11

L'IDATE publie la 10�me �dition de son DigiWorld Yearbook qui se pr�sente comme un �tat du monde num�rique. On y trouve le "best of" des �quipes sp�cialis�es de l'IDATE qui suivent toute l'ann�e le d�veloppement des march�s T�l�coms-Internet-M�dias � travers le monde, en fournissant les chiffres de r�f�rence et en rep�rant les innovations � suivre... La pr�sentation officielle se tiendra le 12 mai 2010 � Paris avec l'intervention de St�phane Richard, directeur g�n�ral de France Telecom-Orange, puis � Londres, � Bruxelles et � Madrid. __________________________________________________________________________________

Le DigiWorld Yearbook est publi� en fran�ais, en anglais et en espagnol (en collaboration avec la fondation Enter). Il fait l'objet de pr�sentations publiques en pr�sence de personnalit�s dans plusieurs capitales europ�ennes (Paris, Londrees, Bruxelles, Madrid). A l?occasion de cette 10�me �dition, l'IDATE lance un site d�di� � son DigiWorld Yearbook qui se d�cline cette ann�e en versions eBook, iPhone et iPad :

www.digiword.org

__________________________________________________________________________________

En chiffres, � l'ann�e 2009 constitue �, selon Didier Pouillot responsable du projet DigiWorld Yearbook, � une ann�e sombre pour les march�s du DigiWorld, qui enregistrent un recul historique en valeur, de -1,5% �. Seul un segment parmi les six qui constituent cet ensemble, � savoir les services de t�l�communications, a connu une l�g�re croissance (+1,8%) : encore est-ce l'effet de la poursuite des d�veloppements dans les march�s �mergents, les pays avanc�s ayant connu dans leur tr�s grande majorit�, dans ce segment �galement, un recul marqu�. D'une mani�re g�n�rale, les segments d'�quipements ont �t� plus affect�s que ceux des services.

Il convient toutefois de noter que les march�s du DigiWorld ont globalement mieux r�sist� � la crise �conomique que nombre d'autres secteurs ; si l'�volution globale de ces march�s en 2009 a converg� avec celle de l'�conomie dans son ensemble (le PIB mondial a �galement r�gress� de 1,6% en valeur), cela traduit en effet un raffermissement apr�s plusieurs ann�es au cours desquelles leur croissance s'�tait situ�e en de��. Surtout, le d�veloppement des acc�s et des usages s'est poursuivi en d�pit (quelquefois m�me du fait) des contraintes auxquelles ont �t� confront�es entreprises et grand public. Ainsi, 2009 a � nouveau constitu� une ann�e tr�s faste pour l'augmentation des parcs mobile (550 millions de nouveaux clients dans le monde) et m�me une ann�e record pour les acc�s haut d�bit (66 millions de nouveaux abonn�s).

Ces d�veloppements, que l'on a vu se former ann�e apr�s ann�e, ont au final profond�ment modifi� le paysage du monde num�rique.

Cette 10�me �dition du DigiWorld Yearbook donne ainsi l'occasion de revenir sur une d�cennie de changements, avec en particulier :
� un d�cuplement du parc mobile mondial, qui passe de 477 millions � fin 1999 � pr�s de 4,5 milliards � fin 2009,
� la cr�ation et le d�ploiement � tr�s large �chelle du haut d�bit qui, tout juste naissant il y a 10 ans, raccorde aujourd'hui plus de 450 millions de foyers dans le monde
� le basculement d'un parc TV encore quasi-exclusivement analogique � la fin des ann�es 90 vers un parc num�rique pour pr�s de 50% des foyers TV aujourd'hui.

Les usages ont �volu� en cons�quence, avec une mention particuli�re pour tout ce qui s'est d�velopp� sur les r�seaux Internet. La VoIP, encore confidentielle au d�but de la d�cennie 2000, est en voie de banalisation dans nombre de pays industriels, l'IPTV gagne rapidement du terrain. Quant aux nouveaux acteurs de ces march�s, les Google, Amazon ou autres Facebook, ils ont connu des trajectoires hors norme. Google est tout simplement devenu une entreprise parmi les plus valoris�es dans l'univers des TIC, Facebook, qui n'existait pas au d�but de la d�cennie, f�d�re aujourd'hui plus de 400 millions d'internautes...

Dans son introduction, le directeur g�n�ral de l'IDATE, Yves Gassot, reconnait qu'il n'y a pas eu au premier abord d'�v�nements majeurs en 2009, l'actualit� ayant �t� pour une large part domin�e par la sensibilit� ou au contraire la r�sistance des diff�rents march�s de l?industrie num�rique � la conjoncture �conomique. L'iPhone 3G et l?OS Android avaient �t� lanc�s en 2008 et il aura fallu attendre... 2010 pour voir le succ�s plan�taire d'un film en 3D, la mise sur le march� de l'iPad et du premier t�l�phone Google.

Toutefois il souligne trois tendances de 2009 particuli�rement structurantes pour les mois � venir et qui soulignent que malgr� la r�cession l'effervescence des industries num�riques s'est poursuivie tout au long de ces derniers mois :

1. Les premi�res congestions sur les r�seaux cellulaires sous l'effet du poids croissant des smartphones et des dongles pour PC et netbooks. A la fin de l'ann�e, la majeure partie du trafic sur les r�seaux cellulaires �tait constitu�e par la data. C'est le point de d�part d'une transformation radicale de l?�conomie des op�rateurs mobiles, d'une interrogation sur les investissements requis pour d�ployer la 4G-LTE, mais aussi d?une transformation de l'Internet avec de nouvelles applications, et la transformation de nouveaux march�s (presse, �dition, sant�, ..).

2. La croissance des flux vid�o joue un r�le pr�pond�rant dans l'essor du trafic sur l'Internet (+40 � +60% par an selon les estimations). Cette explosion a au moins trois cons�quences. Elle pose en terme de plus en plus sensible les interrogations li�es � la � t�l�vision connect�e �. Elle rend aussi plus profond le d�bat sur la Net neutralit�. Contrairement � l'id�e commune, la diff�renciation des flux du Net est d�j� tr�s largement amorc�e � travers les acteurs du CDN mais aussi les infrastructures que d�ploient les grands agr�gateurs de contenus. Enfin, on a pu observer, singuli�rement en Europe, les difficult�s pour mettre en place des plans coh�rents et ambitieux de d�ploiement des acc�s � tr�s haut d�bit qui respectent les principes de concurrence tout en favorisant l'initiative et l'investissement des op�rateurs. Dans ce contexte, c'est le mod�le europ�en d'organisation du secteur des t�l�coms qui est en d�bat.

3. La troisi�me tendance r�side dans le poids croissant des r�seaux sociaux dans le temps pass� sur le Net, dans l'�volution des pratiques de communication et dans leur pouvoir de prescription avec un mod�le �conomique qui est de plus en plus domin� par des strat�gies de plateformes (h�bergement de jeux vid�o ou d'autres applications d?�diteurs ind�pendants). La question est notamment de savoir dans quelle mesure Facebook, qui est pass�, dans la seule ann�e 2009, de 130 millions � plus de 350 millions d'inscrits, va s'assurer un statut de principale place de march�, et de premier rival de Google et d'Apple.

Dans sa pr�face, le Pr�sident de l'IDATE, Francis Lorentz, voit dans les options auxquelles sont confront�s les pouvoirs publics au sortir de la crise, une occasion pour l'Europe d?imposer sur un nombre restreint de points une d�marche collective. Il propose notamment de :
1) renforcer les dispositions financi�res et r�glementaires favorisant les � gazelles � qui sont les mieux � m�me de porter les projets innovants,
2) acc�l�rer la mutation des universit�s qui doivent �tre au coeur des clusters et des politiques d'innovation ;
3) contribuer activement au d�ploiement de l'Internet du Futur en identifiant et soutenant deux ou trois projets prioritaires d'int�r�t g�n�ral dans des domaines tels que l'eSant� ou l'�nergie (Smart Grid).

N�511 - Les outils des r�seaux sociaux -

2010-05-07

Social TV : quand le t�l�viseur s'ouvre aux r�seaux sociaux

Fin avril, WAT.tv, le site de partage de vid�o du groupe TF1, a int�gr� dans sa nouvelle version des outils de partage, recommandation, classement et flux d'activit�s de Facebook.

"Gr�ce � ces nouvelles fonctionnalit�s sociales, Wat amplifie consid�rablement la dimension communautaire de son service et offre � ses utilisateurs une exp�rience plus riche et plus engageante, en capitalisant sur la popularit� du plus grand r�seau social du monde (plus de 400 millions de membres)", commente S. Girieud, consultant senior au sein de l'IDATE et souligne: "Ce partenariat avec Facebook devrait ainsi favoriser la cr�ation et la r�tention d'audience et/ou de trafic suppl�mentaire sur la plate-forme de vid�o en ligne et donc am�liorer la mon�tisation publicitaire de son inventaire."

En d�barquant sur le t�l�viseur, les r�seaux sociaux revalorisent l?exp�rience t�l�visuelle
La connexion des t�l�viseurs � Internet va r�volutionner la consommation audiovisuelle, et donner lieu � de nouveaux usages en interaction avec le Web. Non seulement les pr�-requis techniques sont d�j� r�unis, mais la demande est �galement pr�sente. Rien ne para�t donc bloquer aujourd?hui l?�mergence et l?�volution de la "Social TV".

La demande des r�seaux sociaux sur le t�l�viseur est en train de na�tre
Le couplage t�l�vision-Internet constitue d�j� un usage courant chez les jeunes : selon une r�cente �tude de Forrester Research, 45% des internautes europ�ens �ges de 12 � 17 ans d�clarent regarder la t�l�vision en m�me temps qu'ils naviguent sur Internet.
Adeptes du multitasking, les adolescents sont habitu�s � fragmenter simultan�ment leur attention entre plusieurs m�dias, notamment le Web et la t�l�vision

Figure 1 : Multitasking et navigation sur Internet : une pratique tr�s r�pandue chez les adolescents
R�ponse � la question "Quelles autres activit�s pratiquez-vous lorsque vous �tes connect�s sur internet ?"

Base : 1 381 internautes europ�ens �g�s de 12 � 17 ans, 298 internautes fran�ais �g�s de 12 � 17 ans.
Source : Forrester Research, European Technographics� Media, Marketing, And Social Computing Online, 2�me trimester 2009

De fa�on plus sp�cifique, une enqu�te r�alis�e en f�vrier 2009 aux �tats-Unis aupr�s de 1 000 m�nages utilisateurs de r�seaux sociaux met en �vidence que 36 % d?entre eux voudraient avoir acc�s � leur r�seau social sur le t�l�viseur, sans doute en simultan� avec le visionnage des programmes t�l�vis�s (source : ABI Research).
Il �merge ainsi un nouvel int�r�t pour un usage social et interactif de la t�l�vision (cf. tableau suivant) qui se traduit par une demande d?acc�s aux r�seaux sociaux lors du visionnage d?un programme sur le t�l�viseur. R�unir ces deux activit�s sur un m�me terminal, � savoir le t�l�viseur, par le biais des widgets, appara�t donc comme une solution pertinente.

Tableau 1 : Int�r�t pour les r�seaux sociaux sur le t�l�viseur, par segment d'�ge,
aux Etats-Unis, en f�vrier 2009 (d�claratif)

Source : ABI Research

Les r�seaux sociaux sur la t�l�vision font �clore la "Social TV"
Les r�seaux sociaux font donc leur entr�e sur le terminal principal et historique de consommation de programmes audiovisuels, le r�cepteur dont jusqu'� pr�sent les cha�nes de t�l�vision �taient les seules � ma�triser le contenu.
Compte tenu de l?usage grandissant des r�seaux sociaux sur Internet, tout porte � croire que la connectivit� du t�l�viseur est en train de faire na�tre la "Social TV" en mettant en relation, via le t�l�viseur, les t�l�spectateurs et leurs r�seaux.
Gr�ce aux applications de r�seaux sociaux con�ues pour le t�l�viseur, les t�l�spectateurs �quip�s vont pouvoir �changer entre eux des conseils sur les programmes de t�l�vision � regarder (ce qui s'av�re de plus en plus utile face � l'offre multicha�ne croissante) et surtout commenter les contenus en temps r�el. Cette fonction s'av�re particuli�rement int�ressante dans le cas d'un programme diffus� en direct avec un enjeu, comme un match de foot, une soir�e �lectorale ou encore une �mission de t�l�r�alit� qui s'ach�verait sur l'�limination d'un candidat.
A plus long terme, les applications de r�seaux sociaux sur le t�l�viseur pourraient �galement s'enrichir de fonctions de visioconf�rence qui permettraient aux utilisateurs de dialoguer directement et de se voir pendant leurs �changes.
De plus en plus d�laiss�e par les jeunes au profit du Web et des consoles de jeu, la t�l�vision est en train de proposer une nouvelle exp�rience enrichie de l?interactivit� des r�seaux sociaux, r�seaux qui pourraient �tre l?application clef de la t�l�vision de demain, l?exp�rience t�l�visuelle seule ne semblant plus suffire aux nouvelles g�n�rations.

Figure 2 : Evolution de la dur�e moyenne d?�coute hebdomadaire de la t�l�vision selon l'�ge en France, 1997 - 2008
(heures)

Source : Pratiques culturelles 2008, DEPS, minist�re de la Culture et de la Communication, 2009

Les acteurs de la t�l�vision ont d�j� partiellement r�pondu � la demande d'interactivit� des t�l�spectateurs en d�veloppant des sites Internet d�di�s � leurs programmes phares sur lesquels les fans peuvent se retrouver et �changer via des services de forums et de wikis, ou m�me de mondes virtuels (cf. la communaut� virtuelle "Tercera Avenida" cr��e par Antena 3).
L'�tape suivante consistera donc � fournir aux t�l�spectateurs des outils leur permettant d'�changer avec leurs amis de fa�on simultan�e et sur un m�me et unique support : le t�l�viseur. Gr�ce � leurs fonctions de publication et de communication en temps r�el (flux d'actualit�, statut, mur?) les r�seaux sociaux semblent tout indiqu�s pour jouer ce r�le et ainsi apporter � la t�l�vision la dose d?interactivit� qui lui faisait d�faut par rapport aux m�dias num�riques concurrents.

A ce sujet, l'IDATE a publi� le rapport Social Video qui d�taille les chiffres cl�s des march�s du Social Networking et de la Vid�o en ligne, pr�sente les innovations majeures n�es de la combinaison entre r�seaux sociaux et vid�o et d�crit les enjeux et strat�gies des acteurs en pr�sence par des �tudes de cas. Pour plus d'informations cliquez ici.
Chef de projet
Sophie Girieud
s.girieud@idate.org

N�510 - Le tr�s haut-d�bit par satellite -

2010-04-29

Le tr�s haut d�bit par satellite
Le satellite, une technologie incontournable pour l'acc�s final ?

Apr�s avoir rencontr� un succ�s mitig� au d�but des ann�es 2000, l'acc�s bidirectionnel par satellite fait son grand retour depuis deux ans, notamment en Am�rique du Nord, en Asie, et d�sormais en Europe. Les actions pour la r�duction de fracture num�rique et la migration vers le tr�s haut d�bit permettent � la technologie satellitaire de jouer un r�le de plus en plus important.

"Sur la p�riode 2010-2014, l'IDATE estime que le nombre d'abonn�s haut d�bit par satellite sur la zone Europe et Afrique du Nord devrait cro�tre au rythme annualis� de 45 % pour atteindre 610 000 abonn�s en 2014 contre pr�s de 138 000 fin 2010.", commente Maxime Baudry, chef de projet.

Les principaux tendances pour le satellite tr�s haut d�bit
� Les plans de r�duction de la fracture num�rique se g�n�ralisant en Europe, le satellite doit mettre en avant ses atouts pour figurer parmi les solutions technologiques possibles.
� Plus que la r�duction de la fracture num�rique, c'est la course au tr�s haut d�bit qui est d�sormais lanc�e en Europe.
� Dans la bataille qui va l'opposer aux technologies terrestres, principalement sans-fil (3G et LTE), la technologie satellitaire devra mettre en avant ses atouts, le principal �tant certainement une disponibilit� imm�diate pour un co�t mod�r�.
� L'IDATE estime que le tr�s haut d�bit par satellite devrait cro�tre fortement au cours des prochaines ann�es, notamment via les plans de r�duction de fracture num�rique, mais aussi via la course au tr�s haut d�bit qui l'avantage sur les zones rurales par rapport aux technologies LTE et FTTx qui ne sont pas comp�titives �conomiquement.
� Alors que la bande Ka se d�veloppe en Europe et ailleurs dans le monde, le futur du tr�s haut d�bit par satellite pourrait se faire dans des bandes de fr�quences encore plus �lev�es pour permettre des d�bits de plus de 100 Mbps � l'horizon 2020.

Face � la concurrence des technologies terrestres, qu'elles soient filaires ou sans-fil, quelles sont les perspectives de march� r�elles pour la technologie satellitaire ? Par ailleurs, quels sc�narios de positionnement s'av�reront les plus pertinents pour un op�rateur satellite compte tenu des caract�ristiques du march� du haut d�bit dans les diff�rentes zones g�ographiques cibl�es ? Quelles nouvelles technologies satellitaires sont pr�vues � long terme ?

L'�tude "Tr�s haut d�bit par Satellite", publi� par l'IDATE, donne, entre autres, les r�ponses � ces questions cl�s et pr�sente des chiffres actuels du march� de satellite et des march�s concurrents.

Chef de projet
Maxime Baudry
m.baudry@idate.org

N�509 - Digiworld Yearbook 2010 -

2010-05-11

La Pr�sentation de la nouvelle �dition du rapport

DIGIWORLD YEARBOOK 2010
L'etat du monde num�rique par les experts de l'IDATE

aura lieu le Mardi 11 Mai 2010 de 18h � 20h � l'H�tel Intercontinental, 2 rue Scribe 75009 Paris (Sur invitation)

La pr�sentation sera suivie d'une intervention de St�phane Richard - Directeur G�n�ral, de France T�l�com - Orange.

Les dates des pr�sentations pr�vues � Bruxelles, Londres et Madrid seront communiqu�es ult�rieurement.

N�508 - TV 2010 -

2010-04-07

Le march� mondial de la t�l�vision
Le march� mondial de la t�l�vision pour l'ann�e 2009 repr�sente un total de 268,9 milliards EUR, en recul de 1.2% par rapport � 2008.

IDATE fournit des analyses r�guli�res des tendances majeures du march� mondial de la t�l�vision - technologies, chiffre d'affaires et prestations. A l'occasion du salon MIP TV � Cannes (du 12 au 16 avril 2010) l'IDATE publie un livret blanc d�di� au secteur audiovisuel : "TV 2010 - Markets & Trends" pr�sentant une synth�se de diff�rentes �tudes de march� de l'IDATE.

Le march� mondial de la t�l�vision est, en 2009, principalement affect� par la chute des recettes publicitaires de 9.2% que ne suffisent pas � compenser les revenus issus de la t�l�vision � p�age et le financement public ; ces deux sources de revenus augmentant respectivement de 7.2% et 3.5%. Jusqu?en 2008, la publicit� est de loin le premier mode de financement de l'industrie, g�n�rant environ 50% des revenus du secteur, contre 40% pour la t�l�vision � p�age et 10% pour le financement public. En 2009, le poids de la publicit� et des abonnements s'�quilibre autour de 45% des revenus du secteur chacun. D�s 2010, les revenus issus de la t�l�vision � p�age devraient d�passer au niveau mondial les recettes publicitaires globales pour atteindre un rapport d'environ 47%/ 44% � horizon 2013.

"L'industrie n'�chappe pas aux cons�quences de la crise �conomique mondiale ; celle-ci affecte en particulier les recettes publicitaires capt�es par le m�dia t�l�vision. N�anmoins, en 2010 le march� d�passera son niveau de 2008", commente Florence Le Borgne, Responsable du service TV & Contenu num�rique au sein de l'IDATE.

La t�l�vision � p�age en tant que moteur de croissance des recettes doit �voluer

Malgr� sa bonne tenue actuelle dans un contexte de crise, la t�l�vision � p�age va devoir �voluer � court terme sous l'effet de multiples facteurs essentiellement d'ordre technologique, concurrentiel et d'usage.
Facteur de diff�renciation et de croissance de l'ARPU � court terme pour les op�rateurs de TV � p�age, la haute d�finition (HD) sera d'ici quelques ann�es banalis�e par sa g�n�ralisation sur la TNT. La 3D pourrait � plus long terme relancer la concurrence par l'innovation entre les offres de TV payante, mais de nombreux freins restent encore � lever pour permettre le d�veloppement de cette technologie. Concurrenc�es par le d�veloppement du multicha�ne en clair sur la TNT et par le succ�s des plateformes de partage de vid�os, les cha�nes payantes doivent redoubler d'efforts en mati�re de programmation et de prestations � valeur ajout�e pour fid�liser leurs abonn�s et s�duire de nouveaux clients. De par leur fragilit� �conomique, les cha�nes th�matiques sont les plus menac�es. Face � la d�lin�arisation progressive de la consommation audiovisuelle, les op�rateurs de TV � p�age mettent progressivement en oeuvre des solutions pour r�pondre aux besoins de souplesse et de personnalisation des t�l�spectateurs en mati�re de consommation audiovisuelle, solutions qui constituent pour ces acteurs des sources de revenus suppl�mentaires. Le d�veloppement annonc� de la t�l�vision mobile devrait �galement impacter le secteur, bien que pour le moment, la t�l�vision et la vid�o mobiles soient encore loin de constituer un usage-phare du mobile et sont bien plus consid�r�s comme un "nice to have" qu'un "must have" par les utilisateurs. Des usages r�guliers et durables restent donc � construire autour de cette pratique, qui reste encore ponctuelle et limit�e � une minorit� d'utilisateurs mobiles avertis.

T�l�vision 2020 - La migration Internet

Les conditions de la migration de l'industrie de l'audiovisuel vers l'Internet sont aujourd'hui r�unies :
� des consommateurs habitu�s � la consommation d'images sur le Web ;
� des solutions techniques qui donnent acc�s sur le t�l�viseur aux contenus Internet ;
� un acc�s � l'Internet ouvert depuis le t�l�phone mobile ;
� des contenus premium disponibles sur Internet ;
� une qualit� de service qui s'am�liore pour la vid�o sur Internet ;
� la conjonction des strat�gies de nouveaux acteurs issus de secteurs connexes de l'audiovisuel.

Cette migration sera progressive, mais elle aura des impacts fondamentaux sur l'industrie :
� le mod�le d'exploitation exclusive ne sera plus la r�gle ;
� certains consommateurs abandonneront les r�seaux manag�s traditionnels ;
� un mouvement de mondialisation s'amorcera au b�n�fice des grands d�tenteurs de droits.

A la diff�rence des industries de la musique et de la presse, l'industrie de l'audiovisuel prend fortement position sur le Web. Elle peut donc y occuper une place centrale pour l'exploitation des services vid�o. La strat�gie offensive qu'elle poursuit, prometteuse pour le futur, ne la met pas � l'abri de la destruction de valeur. Celle-ci a en effet des raisons structurelles : forte intensit� concurrentielle sur le march� publicitaire Internet ; non-contr�le de la circulation des programmes. La crise 2009-2010, loin d'�tre uniquement conjoncturelle, marque l'entr�e dans une d�cennie de restructuration de l?industrie de l'audiovisuel, marqu�e dans un premier temps par une baisse globale des ressources du secteur avant que des usages d�multipli�s permettent une nouvelle croissance. La d�cennie 2010-2020 sera aussi celle du contr�le des co�ts, par l'industrialisation d'une production audiovisuelle d�finitivement coup�e de son mod�le historique, le cin�ma. L'industrie europ�enne est particuli�rement menac�e par la migration vers l'Internet. Une r�vision de la strat�gie r�glementaire dans le domaine de l'audiovisuel semble donc n�cessaire et urgente : elle implique notamment la cr�ation de groupes int�gr�s paneurop�ens.

Pour avoir plus d'informations � ce sujet n'h�sitez pas � t�l�charger cette news dans sa totalit� ainsi que notre livret blanc TV 2010 - Markets & Trends

Jeremy George
Service Commercial TV & Contenu num�rique

N�507 - Tarifs T�l�coms -

2010-03-30

L'analyse et la comparaison des tarifs t�l�coms est un sujet � la fois complexe et sensible, impliquant des param�tres nombreux et vari�s. Afin de mieux appr�hender ces diff�rents param�tres et leurs effets, l'IDATE publie une �tude d�taill�e des grilles tarifaires et des modalit�s de facturation des principaux op�rateurs d'acc�s fixe haut d�bit et de services mobiles dans les grands pays europ�ens (Allemagne, Espagne, France, Italie et Royaume-Uni) et aux Etats-Unis, � partir d'une base de donn�es exclusive.

Mobiles
Positionnements marketing et tarifaires
Pour les gammes de tarifs mobiles, on observe des diff�rences importantes entre pays :
� au Royaume-Uni, en Allemagne et en France, les gammes sont plut�t larges et adressent des usages tr�s vari�s,
� en Italie, les gammes sont plus retreintes tandis que l'Espagne occupe une position interm�diaire,
� aux Etats-Unis enfin, les offres d'abondance sont g�n�ralis�es (avec d'ailleurs des cons�quences tr�s concr�tes sur le prix des paniers de consommation faible et moyenne).

Par ailleurs, les modalit�s on net/off net et heure pleine/heure creuse, pour les offres mobiles, sont encore largement pr�gnantes m�me si l'�volution vers les forfaits les estompe pour partie. Pour les tarifs mobile data, les bases tarifaires restent tr�s vari�es autant dans les volumes propos�s que dans les modalit�s de plafonnement (en "jouant" ou non sur le d�bit).

Modalit�s de vente et de facturation
Les principales modalit�s qui constituent autant de vari�t� dans les offres tarifaires des op�rateurs sont :
� les options d'achat : achat en boutique vs. achat en ligne, packs vs. SIM only,
� les modalit�s d'engagement : dur�es d'engagement pour les offres postpay�es, dur�es de validit� pour les cartes pr�pay�es,
� les co�ts fixes ou a minima : abonnements et engagements mensuels, recharge des cartes pr�pay�es
� les principes de facturation de la voix : modalit�s de d�compte temps, discrimination selon les num�ros appel�s, dispositifs heures pleines/heures creuses
� les principes de facturation des messages courts : selon les num�ros appel�s, selon la nature et la taille des messages, dispositifs heures pleines/heures creuses,
� les principes de facturation de l'internet mobile : modalit�s de d�compte (au volume, au temps, � la connexion).

Benchmark des tarifs Mobile (analyse par paniers de consommation)
Dans les mobiles, nous avons calcul� des prix de paniers pour diff�rents profils de consommation, sur la base d'offres postpay�e. Les op�rateurs britanniques apparaissant quasi syst�matiquement les mieux positionn�s. Les op�rateurs allemands et espagnols, plut�t dans la moyenne pour les petits consommateurs, sont r�guli�rement parmi les plus chers en revanche d�s qu'on avance vers des niveaux de consommation moyens ou �lev�s. Les op�rateurs fran�ais et italiens sont entre les deux, avec des �carts entre op�rateurs beaucoup plus marqu�s en Italie. Enfin, les offres des op�rateurs nord-am�ricains apparaissent plut�t ch�res pour les petits consommateurs mais de mieux en mieux positionn�s au fur et � mesure que l'on monte en consommation.

Internet haut d�bit
Positionnements marketing et tarifaires
Pour les acc�s haut d�bit fixe, les op�rateurs am�ricains semblent proposer davantage d'offres d'acc�s seul que ne le font les op�rateurs europ�ens, plut�t adeptes du multiplay, pour partie sans doute du fait de structures de march� et concurrentielles, sur les march�s de la t�l�phonie et de la t�l�vision, diff�rentes de part et d'autre de l'Atlantique.

Par ailleurs, l'�volution vers le tr�s haut d�bit se fait le plus souvent, sur le plan tarifaire, en continuit� des offres haut d�bit classiques et les prix sont m�me dans certains pays (en France en particulier pour la plupart des op�rateurs) align�s sur ceux de ces derni�res.

Modalit�s de vente et de facturation
Pour les offres d'acc�s haut d�bit fixe, on rel�ve des options diff�rentes principalement sur :
� les principes d'achat : achat en boutique vs. achat en ligne,
� les principes de location/achat de terminaux et modalit�s d'amortissement, changement, restitution?
� les dur�es d'engagement,
� les principes d'achat : achat en boutique vs. achat en ligne,
� les principes de facturation de l'acc�s : en fonction des d�bits, en fonction des services associ�s,
� les principes de facturation de la voix : modalit�s de d�compte, dispositifs heures pleines/heures creuses, discrimination selon les num�ros appel�s,
� les principes de facturation de la TV.
Sur toutes ces modalit�s, l'�tude compare les diff�rentes options propos�es, en s'appuyant sur des exemples tir�s de la base.

Benchmark des tarifs Internet haut d�bit (analyse par paniers de consommation)
Pour les tarifs haut d�bit, les op�rateurs allemands, fran�ais et britanniques pr�sentent r�guli�rement les tarifs les plus bas. Les tarifs en Espagne et en Italie sont en g�n�ral plus �lev�s. Quant aux op�rateurs nord-am�ricains, ils pr�sentent, en dehors des acc�s seuls jusqu'� 8 Mbps, les tarifs syst�matiquement les plus �lev�s de notre panel.

______________________
Tarifs T�l�coms - Benchmark des offres Fixe haut d�bit & Mobile (Market & Data, Mars 2010)
� L'objectif de cette �tude est, d'une part de pr�senter et comparer les principales caract�ristiques des offres tarifaires dans ces services en termes de positionnement marketing Nous avons travaill� � partir des grilles des principaux op�rateurs (en r�gle g�n�rale, les 4 premiers dans l'une et l'autre cat�gorie) dans 6 pays (Allemagne, Espagne, France, Italie, Royaume-Uni et Etats-Unis) : correspondant � plus de 500 offres pour 42 op�rateurs analys�s.
� Nous avons d'autre part analys� en d�tail les composantes "techniques" de ces offres tarifaires, c'est-�-dire l'ensemble des param�tres qui structurent les tarifs, en prenant en compte toutes les modalit�s de d�compte-temps ou d�compte-trafic, le cas �ch�ant.
� 5 paniers de consommation de services mobiles et 3 d'acc�s haut d�bit ont �t� d�finis. Pour chaque panier, nous avons mesur� le tarif le plus bas propos� par chaque op�rateur, puis pr�sent� les r�sultats par pays en retenant trois points de rep�re : le point bas, qui indique le prix de l'op�rateur avec l'offre la moins ch�re, tous op�rateurs confondus, le point haut, qui indique le prix de l'op�rateur avec l'offre la plus ch�re (mais la moins ch�re pour l'op�rateur en question pour le profil consid�r�) et, enfin, un point interm�diaire qui correspond � la moyenne pond�r�e (sur la base des parts de march�) des tarifs des trois ou quatre op�rateurs retenus pour le pays.
� Enfin, nous avons �tabli des tableaux de prix en fonction de diff�rents paniers. A la diff�rence des exercices g�n�ralement r�alis�s sur ce th�me, nous avons cherch� � tenir compte au mieux possible, notamment pour les services factur�s au temps (services mobiles essentiellement), des r�partitions d'appels en int�grant des coefficients de redressement selon les cr�dits-temps et paliers de facturation et de proposer des points de rep�re plus larges qu'une simple moyenne ou prix le plus bas pour un pays donn�.
� Une base de donn�es tarifaires, en format Excel, sert de support � l'analyse et fait partie int�grante du rapport.

N�506 - eBooks -

2010-03-23

A l�occasion du Salon du Livre de Paris 2010, l�IDATE, cabinet de conseil et d��tudes sp�cialis� dans les t�l�communications, l�Internet et les m�dias, pr�sentera les conclusions d�une �tude commandit�e par le Minist�re de la Culture et de la Communication sur les principaux march�s �trangers du livre num�rique, c�est � dire le Japon, les Etats-Unis et le Canada.

Le march� du livre num�rique japonais est le plus ancien et le plus d�velopp� au monde � l�heure actuelle. Il p�se 3% du march� total de l��dition en 2009 et se caract�rise par la lecture sur le t�l�phone mobile, principalement de mangas. Faute de contenus attractifs disponibles en version num�rique, les perspectives de croissance interne sont limit�es ; les �diteurs pr�f�rant valoriser leur catalogue sur les march�s �trangers.

Aux Etats-Unis, le march� du livre num�rique ne comptait en 2008 que pour 0.5% du march� total de l��dition mais les ventes d�ebook devraient conna�tre une croissance � trois chiffres en 2009. Le march� am�ricain est le plus concurrentiel de la plan�te tant au niveau des catalogues de titres disponibles que des terminaux d�di�s (e-readers) et non d�di�s (smartphones, tablettes, consoles de jeux). Redessin� par les luttes d�influence entre les �diteurs, Amazon, Google et Apple, le march� devrait rapidement devenir le plus important au monde en valeur.

Quant au Canada, le march� du livre num�rique est encore faible en valeur et reproduit les clivages linguistiques : l�offre anglophone est � la tra�ne des Etats-Unis tandis que l�offre francophone se structure autour d�un entrep�t num�rique unique comptant plus de 2.500 titres et accessible � tous les �diteurs et libraires.

L�intervention au Salon du Livre pr�sentera pour chaque pays les principales caract�ristiques du march� (forces en pr�sence, cha�ne de valeur), les modalit�s de r�partition de la valeur ainsi que les perspectives de croissance.

Au second trimestre 2010, l�IDATE publiera une �tude globale sur les march�s du livre num�rique majeurs en Am�rique du Nord, Europe et Asie. L��tude dressera l�inventaire des strat�gies, mod�les �conomiques, politiques tarifaires et co�ts induits des principaux acteurs du livre num�rique. L��tude s�accompagnera d�une base de donn�es des ventes d��uvres num�riques et des terminaux de lecture d�di�s (e-readers) pour la p�riode 2009-2013.

L�intervention des consultants de l�IDATE se d�roulera le lundi 29 mars 2010 � 12H00 salle Julien Gracq, situ�e sur le stand du Centre National du Livre. (Stand N86).

> Vous pouvez d�s � pr�sent prendre rendez-vous avec les consultants de l�IDATE pour un entretien individuel en contactant :

Vincent Bonneau, responsable de la Business Unit Internet

ou

Marc Leiba, consultant livre num�rique et presse en ligne

N�505 - Social Video -

2010-04-08

Les r�seaux sociaux repr�sentent � la fois des nouveaux canaux de distribution et de promotion pour les contenus vid�o et des prestataires de solutions communautaires innovantes pour les cha�nes TV et les services de vid�o en ligne. Ils s'affirment donc comme des partenaires puissants et incontournables pour les acteurs du divertissement audiovisuel, � l'heure o� la dimension sociale devient un enjeu majeur du monde m�diatique et num�rique.

Le social networking et la consommation de vid�o en ligne sont d�sormais des usages Internet de masse, au m�me titre que la recherche, l'e-mailing ou encore la navigation sur les portails. De nouveaux g�ants du Web ont �merg� de ces pratiques entre lesquels se tissent des liens de plus en plus �troits.

Nous assistons aujourd'hui � un v�ritable rapprochement entre les acteurs du social networking et de la TV/vid�o, porteur de nombreuses innovations pour les services audiovisuels broadcast et en ligne :

� Gr�ce � l'arriv�e des t�l�viseurs connect�s, les r�seaux sociaux commencent � �tre disponibles directement sur le petit �cran sous forme de widgets. Combinaison id�ale entre les programmes audiovisuels et le social networking, la social TV offre aux �diteurs de cha�nes l'opportunit� de capitaliser sur leur grille de programmes et d'enrichir l'exp�rience t�l�visuelle propos�e au t�l�spectateur.

� Les solutions de portabilit� des donn�es d�velopp�es par les principaux r�seaux sociaux (Facebook Connect, MySpace Data Availability ou encore Sign in with Twitter) permettent aux services de TV/vid�o en ligne gratuit (site d'une cha�ne TV, service de VoD, plate-forme de vid�o communautaire, etc.) d'int�grer � leurs sites des outils communautaires tr�s populaires (Live Feed de Facebook, fil Twitter) qui favorisent la cr�ation et la r�tention d'audience et/ou de trafic suppl�mentaire et am�liorent donc la mon�tisation publicitaire de leur inventaire.

� Le partage et la consommation de vid�o sur les r�seaux sociaux sont des activit�s en forte croissance. Pour tous les services de TV et de vid�o - des cha�nes traditionnelles � Hulu, en passant par YouTube - les r�seaux sociaux apparaissent comme un nouveau canal de distribution sociale et virale qui permet d'�largir la diffusion de leurs programmes. Toutefois, seule une strat�gie publicitaire adapt�e peut permettre aux acteurs audiovisuels de tirer profit de la diss�mination de leurs contenus sur le Web communautaire.

� Les recommandations de contenu deviennent un enjeu de plus en plus important pour les services de VoD payante qui, pour renforcer la pertinence et donc l'efficacit� de ces suggestions, pourraient utiliser les propri�t�s de filtre communautaire du graphe social. Le consommateur recevrait ainsi des recommandations de vid�os de la part des contacts de ses r�seaux sociaux, ces personnes �tant pour lui des sources d'information particuli�rement fiables et des prescripteurs de confiance. L'exploitation du graphe social doit cependant s'effectuer dans le respect de la confidentialit� des donn�es personnelles et de la vie priv�e des utilisateurs.

Pour les r�seaux sociaux, ces alliances avec les acteurs TV/vid�o pr�sentent un r�el int�r�t �conomique : elles peuvent non seulement leur permettre d'accro�tre leur chiffre d'affaires publicitaire mais aussi leur procurer de nouvelles sources de revenus en tant que fournisseurs de solutions communautaires.

Quelles seront les enjeux et strat�gies pour ces acteurs convergeant et quel impact �conomique aura le Social Vid�o dans les prochaines ann�es ?

A ce sujet, l'IDATE a publi� un rapport qui d�taille les chiffres cl�s des march�s du Social Networking et de la Vid�o en ligne, pr�sente les innovations majeures n�es de la combinaison entre r�seaux sociaux et vid�o et d�crit les enjeux et strat�gies des acteurs en pr�sence par des �tudes de cas.

Chef de projet
Sophie Girieud
s.girieud@idate.org

N�503 - World Mobile Equipment Market -

2010-02-15

The global equipment market represented a total 284 billion euros in 2009, and IDATE predicts an increase of 1.5% for 2010.

As expected, 2009 was a tough year for the telecom equipment market. With the first warning signs of a slowdown in summer 2008, equipment manufacturers were the hardest hit by the recession. The difficulties encountered by the telecom equipment market were due especially to telcos� reduced spending that was slashed even further as the economy tanked. Dipping more than expected, especially after years of growth, the market is expected to shrink by 2% in 2009.

The mobile phone market has been deeply affected by the global economic crisis that began in 2008. With strong pressure on sales, the mobile handset market has gone from double-digit growth in 2002 to negative growth (-4%) in 2009. In terms of volume, the number of handsets sold dropped by 6% in 2009, down to 1.12 billion units, on the heels of +6% growth in 2008, which was nevertheless below initial predictions. The overall downturn that is currently affecting the cellular market is expected to continue and constrict growth in 2010 (+2.5% YoY).

Operators have been selective in their spending on network infrastructure, confining their investments to IP-based and optical transmission equipment, to be able to satisfy their residential and business customers� ever-increasing bandwidth requirements. Mobile equipment sales have come under strong pressure, although vendors do see certain regions, especially the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, as future growth areas once 3G auctions have wrapped up. Mobile equipment in fact continues to dominate telecom industry spending around the globe.

The wireline infrastructure market was down again in 2009, and carriers� transition to NGA networks � and particularly to FTTx infrastructure � was not enough in the grim economic climate to offset the decline of DSL equipment sales (-15% decrease in DSL port shipments in 2009).

On the flipside, the current economy has stepped up demand for services, such as managed solutions, that provide increased efficiency. Carriers� cost-cutting measures have translated into weakened control over their networks which, in 2009, meant a real upswing in infrastructure outsourcing deals and a growing number of operators turning to infrastructure sharing.

Changes in the equipment market landscape

The gap between vendors' performance widened in 2009, a year that served chiefly to expose their struggles. Nortel was the first victim, and its bankruptcy reshuffled the landscape as the company auctioned off its business, piece by piece. Virtually all infrastructure suppliers have been affected by the downturn, and the market is now populated by five heavyweights, including Ericsson which has managed to strengthen its position by taking over some of Nortel�s assets and expanding its foothold in the North American market.

Meanwhile, some of the smaller manufacturers, such as Motorola, have really felt the squeeze � their lack of critical mass making it hard to withstand intensified price wars. Mega mergers have also resulted in underperforming revenue growth, with both Alcatel-Lucent and Nokia-Siemens posting negative revenue growth for two years running.

Chinese manufacturers continued to enjoy a healthy growth momentum, albeit at a lesser pace than in the five past years. Huawei, which had being boasting a 40% growth rate, is expected to report a 20% increase in income in 2009, which still puts it near the top of the ranks, alongside ZTE.

Nokia remained the top handset manufacturer, with a 36% market share in 2009. However, with sales in emerging markets slowing because of the downturn, pressure from the competition is increasing. The two major Korean, manufacturers Samsung and LG, consolidated their positions and moved into second and third spot in the global rankings � having increased their market share over 2008 through their commitment to high-end and innovative devices. Meanwhile, Motorola continued its struggled to overcome certain difficulties, while Chinese equipment manufacturer ZTE increased its market share, rising through the ranks to become the globe�s 6th largest handset maker.

N�502 - Inventory of FTTH in Europe & Middle East -

2010-02-24

In 2009, growth in terms of subscribers and Homes/Buildings passed has accelerated in Europe, with respectively 19% and 29% rate between June and December 2009. In EU36 (including Russia), there were nearly 3.5 million FTTH/B subscribers and more than 25 million Homes/Buildings Passed.

Because of its specific demographic characteristics, Russia is the heaviest country in terms of subscribers and Homes/Buildings Passed even if the FTTH/B market is still in its infancy in the country. The potential of the Russian market is huge and might convince new players to get involved in FTTH/B deployments in the near future.

In the Middle East (14 countries covered), UAE are the main FTTH/B market, totalling more than 1 million Homes/Buildings Passed and nearly 63,000 subscribers. In other countries, FTTH/B deployments are very limited, and even municipalities, which initiated most of the FTTH/B projects in Europe, do not seem to get highly involved in deployments.

_____
Even with new deployments in Eastern and Southern Europe, more mature countries still dominate the global European FTTH/B market. In countries such as Sweden, rollouts are still engaged even if on a smaller scale. The main issue now is really to convince end users to subscribe to services based on FTTH/B networks. At end 2009, 18 European countries are in the Global Ranking, which is the proof that commercial effort is on-going, but still has to be enhanced.

Regarding Middle East, the FTTH/B market is still in its infancy. Several announcements have been made but have to be concretised. Contrary to Northern Europe, where first deployments were engaged by municipalities and/or power companies, rollouts in Middle East will more probably be initiated by incumbents and private players, among which Real Estate Owners which will rapidly find a high interest in Fiber as value-added for their new housing programs.

European FTTH/B market at end 2009

As in previous years, IDATE has been commissioned by the FTTH Council Europe to provide an overview of the status of FTTH rollouts across Europe at the end of 2009. To date, IDATE has identified 249 FTTH/B projects in Europe, of which 136 are new initiatives since June 2005.

Municipalities and utilities are still the main category of players involved in FTTH/B deployments in Europe as they represent 55.7% of total number of projects. Nevertheless, they are still giving ground to alternative players which, even if they only represent 28.7% of total number of projects, reach 74% of FTTH/B Homes/Buildings Passed.

In terms of subscribers, alternative operators still dominate the market. Those which were involved first in FTTH/B deployments represent the most important customer base: all together, FastWeb (Italy), B2 (Sweden), Illiad/Free, Numericable & SFR (France), Orange Slovensko (Slovakia) and T2 (Slovenia) at the end of 2009 totalled 841,500 subscribers, or around 24% of Europe�s FTTH/B subscriber base (including Russia). However, this figure is lower than a year ago. This is mainly due to the involvement of incumbents which have been deploying largely in 2009 after months (and sometimes years) of expectation for regulation clarification.

� New FTTH/B markets, mainly in Eastern Europe, are very dynamic. Countries such as Lithuania, Estonia and Czech Republic are among the most dynamic in terms of new FTTH/B subscribers during second half 2009.

� Sweden, third country in terms of number of new subscribers between June and December 2009, is still a very dynamic market where local and national players continue to convince end users to subscribe to services based on FTTH/B architecture. On the other hand, the coverage is still increasing, and the consequence it a lower penetration rate in the country compared to end 2008.

� At end 2009, 4 countries have entered the Global Ranking, meaning that more than 1% of households have subscribed to a FTTH/B service: France, Czech Republic, Portugal and Bulgaria.

� The majority of subscribers (around 67% of FTTH/B subscribers at end 2009) is concentrated in 7 countries in Western and Northern Europe: Sweden, Italy, France, Norway, The Netherlands, Denmark and Germany

Excluding Russia, which leads the FTTH/B market in terms of subscribers and Homes/Buildings Passed due to its specific demography, France is still ahead of all other European countries at the end of 2009. But other countries have shown a strong growth and are now positioned among the 10 leaders in terms of number of Homes/Buildings Passed. This is the case for Portugal, Bulgaria and Lithuania which are respectively n� 4, 5 and 6 at end 2009.

Scandinavian countries, and notably Sweden and Norway, still lead the way in Europe in terms of penetration rate with 41.4% and 64.9%, respectively. However, those rates have slightly decreased between end 2008 and end 2009: this signifies that deployments are still engaged and that the coverage, even in those advanced countries, has not reached maturity yet.

Regarding technology deployed, Ethernet is still the first choice of players and represents 84% of total FTTH/B rollouts at end 2009.

The main change during 2009 concerns the architecture deployed as at end 2009, FTTB represents 58% of rollouts compared to 47% a year ago. This is further proof of the fact that players often opt for FTTB to avoid the issues involved in installing fibre on private properties, and especially MDUs (negotiation with landlords).

Middle East FTTH/B market at end 2009

As part of its inventory, IDATE also examined the status of FTTH in Middle East at the end of 2009. With the exception of UAE, there have been very few FTTH/B deployments in Middle East up until now. Some players have announced and/or have begun FTTH/B rollouts in major cities, but coverage and take-up levels are not yet significant.

The key driver for FTTH/B deployments in the region is massive new housing programs. Alternative operators are more involved in FTTH/B deployments than other categories of players, however, incumbents are dominating the market as they represent more than 60% of FTTH/B Homes/Buildings Passed at end 2009.

N�501 - DigiWorld Summit 2010 -

2010-02-01

Le Digiworld Summit IDATE (Les Journ�es Internationales de l'IDATE) s'est impos�, depuis 31 ans, comme un lieu unique en Europe pour prendre la mesure des changements � l'?uvre dans le DigiWorld� (Telecom, Internet, M�dia).

Chiffres-cl�s du DigiWorld Summit 2009:
- Plus de 1200 participants, en hausse de 10% par rapport � l'�dition 2007
- 200 speakers
- 80 exposants

www.digiworldsummit.com

N�501 - World Mobile Market -

2010-02-11

IDATE provides regular analyses of the central trends shaping mobile markets around the globe � networks, devices and services. To mark the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona (15-18 February 2010), IDATE is publishing the fourth edition of its special white paper: �Mobile 2010 � Markets & Trends�, which draws on several IDATE market reports.

After a marked decline in 2008 � to +3.8%, or two points less than in 2007 � growth in the telecom services market dropped significantly once again in 2009. After generating revenue of 1,417 billion USD in 2008, sales are expected to reach 1,441 billion USD in 2009, in other words an increase of only 1.7%: the lowest growth rate since 2002.

�This decline is due to structural phenomena, i.e. the maturity of the markets that have driven growth in the past, namely mobile telephony in industrialised countries, combined with competitive and regulatory pressures whose impact has been further aggravated by the economic downturn�, says Carole Manero, Project leader of the �World Telecom Services market� report.

Although based solidly on business models tied to subscriptions and technologies that users in industrialised nations consider essential, the telecom services market is not likely to emerge unscathed from the recession. It does nevertheless have some very strong assets that will help put it back on track, including the fact that consumption volumes continue to rise apace with the growing user base. In fixed markets, the growing Internet services market is no longer fully offsetting the decline in fixed line calling, added to which the growth rate for mobile services revenue continues to shrink � decreasing by two-thirds between 2007 and 2009.

Mobile services nevertheless remain the chief driving force

With total sales estimated at 755 billion USD in 2008 and at 785 billion USD in 2009, mobile services nevertheless remain the chief driving force behind growth as a whole. They have accounted for more than half of all telecom services revenue worldwide for four years running (representing an estimated 55% in 2009), and generate more than twice as much income as landline calling. The mobile market�s growth is being sustained by a massive rise in customer numbers which grew by 14% worldwide in 2009: up to 4.5 billion (or by more than 46 million customers a month!), whereas the market�s value has been declining year after year.

Fixed telephony continues its decline which began in 2002, and at an ever increasing pace. In 2009, the number of fixed lines shrank again, and average revenue per line has decreased by around 2% annually for the past two years. Fixed telephony has decreased in value by 11% in three years and, at the end of 2009, it accounted for only 26% of the telecom services market worldwide, compared to around 33% in 2006.

Generating an estimated 275 billion USD in 2009, data and especially Internet services continue to increase their weight in the equation, which has risen slowly but steadily: by 0.5 to 0.7 points annually since 2006. Their share of the total market reached 19% in 2009, up from 17% in 2006 and less than 15% in 2001, although their contribution to growth is no longer offsetting the decline in fixed telephony revenue: 19.3 billion USD in losses for fixed voice, compared to 14.1 billion USD in gains for fixed data services. Excluding Internet, the data services market remained unchanged in Europe and North America in 2008 compared to 2007, and is thought to have suffered a decline in 2009.

The growth of Internet and data services revenue has been spurred by the remarkable rise of the Internet, and especially of broadband access. In terms of volume, the number of broadband subscribers grew by close to 63.3 million, which translates into 5.3 million new subscribers a month worldwide. At this pace, we predict that the 500 million mark will be reached some time in 2010. At the end of 2009, broadband access accounted for three quarters of all Internet connections around the globe.

LTE: the right answer?

IDATE predicts that, by 2015, a total of 380 million subscribers in the US, the EU-5, Scandinavia, China, Japan and South Korea will have access to mobile data services over LTE networks.

� The cost of an LTE rollout for an MNO operating both GSM and UMTS/HSDPA networks amounts to 2.1 billion EUR to cover the urban and suburban population. This figure applies to a nation of 50 million inhabitants with the population density/distribution properties of a Western European country.

� Innovative services and business models, such as VoLTE which can bring benefits to both operators and subscribers, need to be deployed if operators are to maximise the potential of LTE deployments, maintain ARPU levels and continue to be a smart pipe.

N�500 - DigiWorld Programme 2010 -

2010-02-02

L'IDATE r�unit le 28 janvier � Paris les entreprises qui soutiennent le DigiWorld Programme pour arr�ter les orientations 2010. Rappelons que son objectif est d'offrir � travers diverses initiatives une plateforme europ�enne ind�pendante pour promouvoir les �changes et la r�flexion sur l'industrie et l'�conomie num�rique.

Le DigiWorld Programme repr�sente un ensemble vari�s et compl�mentaires d'activit�s et d'�v�nements: Clubs, Policy Programme, Edition du DigiWorld Yearbook, revue Communications & Strategies, Voyages d'�tude, S�minaires et conf�rences...

On peut d'ores et d�j� annoncer une innovation avec le lancement d'un Club mensuel � Londres. L'IDATE a pris l'initiative de faire fonctionner sur Londres un Club similaire � celui de Paris, r�unissant tous les mois sous la forme d'un petit d�jeuner des repr�sentants des principaux acteurs des secteurs TIC. Les r�unions sont, comme pour le Club de Paris, priv�es (r�serv�es aux membres). A l'agenda des deux premi�res r�unions: les enjeux du LTE, la "Net Neutrality".

> Pr�sentation du DigiWorld Programme

N�499 - Le foyer num�rique -

2010-02-11

Les terminaux connect�s repr�senteront un march� de 149 milliards EUR en 2013 pour l'Europe, le Japon & les Etats-Unis

Le FAI n'est plus l'unique prestataire qui permet d'acc�der � l'Internet. Les op�rateurs de t�l�phonie mobile font de m�me gr�ce aux r�seaux 3G d�sormais largement d�ploy�s (en France, plus de 70% de la population est couverte). Bien que majoritairement acquis en situation de mobilit�, les contenus sont g�n�ralement consomm�s dans le foyer pour des raisons de commodit� et de confort.

L'entr�e des contenus � l'int�rieur du foyer num�rique n'est donc plus un probl�me, les terminaux connect�s r�pondant chacun aux attentes et aux usages des consommateurs. Le probl�me qui se pose au consommateur consiste � faire transiter ces contenus entre les terminaux composant le foyer num�rique d'une mani�re simple, rapide et intuitive.

Pour l'IDATE, aucune vision du foyer num�rique n'est en mesure de s'imposer durablement. Chaque configuration dispose d'atouts et d'inconv�nients. N�anmoins, la part de march� de chaque configuration �voluera en fonction des progr�s des solutions et de l'�ducation progressive des consommateurs. Nous distinguons ainsi les phases suivantes :

� une ouverture du march� via des solutions (sc�nario "silos") combinant terminaux et offres de services et contenus propri�taires ;

� un d�veloppement en parall�le de solutions techniques permettant une meilleure interop�rabilit� au sein du foyer, soit par des terminaux interop�rables (sc�nario "seamless"), soit par un serveur multim�dia central (sc�nario "home servers")

� la mont�e en puissance progressive de l'int�gration services et contenus au sein du terminal (sc�nario "store") ;

� l'�mergence � terme d'un basculement vers des solutions en ligne (sc�nario "Home-in-the-cloud").

Les progr�s des r�seaux domestiques
La principale probl�matique qui se pose aujourd'hui concernant la circulation des contenus au sein du foyer se situe dans la bande passante disponible en interne. En effet, l'arriv�e des contenus dans le foyer n'est plus un probl�me gr�ce � l'ADSL et la fibre optique. La connectivit� entre les appareils progresse gr�ce � trois technologies d�sormais largement d�mocratis�es, le Wifi, les c�bles, le courant porteur en ligne, et qui continuent � progresser.

� Afin de pallier les probl�mes de bande passante, la soci�t� am�ricaine Zeevee propose une solution bas�e sur l'utilisation des c�bles coaxiaux permettant de diffuser des contenus en haute d�finition � l'ensemble des pi�ces du foyer desservies par ces c�bles coaxiaux.

� Plusieurs consortiums promeuvent des solutions sans-fil � tr�s haut d�bit (Wifi Direct (connexion directe entre terminaux ind�pendants du routeur) ; WiGig Alliance (connexion Wifi dans la bande des 60 GHz), WHDI (wireless high-definition video interface) alliance

La connectivit� DLNA
Faire circuler des contenus dans un environnement complexe compos� de terminaux h�t�rog�nes ayant des finalit�s diff�rentes (stockage, pilotage, visionnage, �coute) demeure complexe. Afin de pallier ces probl�mes, de nombreux consortiums ont vu le jour ces derni�res ann�es, avec pour principal objectif de cr�er des normes et des standards dans la communication entre les terminaux afin de les rendre directement interop�rables ("plug and connect"). C'est notamment le cas du DLNA (Digital Living Network Association).

N�498 - Le march� mondial de la t�l�vision 2010 -

2010-01-25

Les �tats-Unis demeurent le premier march� mondial de la t�l�vision avec un chiffre d'affaires de plus de 100 milliards EUR en 2009, en recul de 2% sur un an. Le poids de la zone Am�rique du Nord dans le march� mondial tend � diminuer, passant de 39% en 2006 � 38.7% en 2009 ; il devrait encore perdre quelques dixi�mes de points dans les ann�es � venir.
Second march� r�gional, l'Europe r�alise un chiffre d'affaires de 82 milliards EUR en 2009, en baisse de 2.4% par rapport � 2008. Le poids du march� europ�en dans le march� mondial conna�t �galement une �rosion lente, passant de 31.7% en 2006 � 30.5% en 2009. Le Royaume-Uni, l'Allemagne et la France tirent la croissance du march� et p�sent � eux seuls 44% des revenus de la zone.

L'Asie-Pacifique enregistre pour sa part une croissance de son march� TV de l?ordre de 0.3%. Sa part de march� progresse de 0.3 points et retrouve son niveau de 2007, � 20.8%. Poids lourds de la zone, le Japon, l'Inde et la Chine connaissent des fortunes diverses. En tant que march� mature, le Japon accuse une baisse de plus de 5% tandis que les march�s �mergents chinois et indien progressent respectivement de 6.2% et 9.5%.
L'Am�rique latine affiche de son c�t� la plus forte progression de son march� de la TV, avec une hausse de pr�s de 5%. Sa part de march� � l'�chelle du monde est encore modeste (7.9%), mais elle progresse r�guli�rement (6% en 2006). Le Br�sil est le premier march� de la TV latino-am�ricain et p�se � lui seul plus de 45% du march�.
Plus petit march� r�gional, la zone Afrique/Moyen-Orient recule de plus de 6%. Sa part de march� stagne � 2.1%.

Le march� mondial de la t�l�vision est, en 2009, principalement affect� par la chute des recettes publicitaires de 9.2% que ne suffisent pas � compenser les revenus issus de la t�l�vision � p�age et le financement public ; ces deux sources de revenus augmentant respectivement de 7.2% et 3.5%. Jusqu'en 2008, la publicit� est de loin le premier mode de financement de l'industrie, g�n�rant environ 50% des revenus du secteur, contre 40% pour la t�l�vision � p�age et 10% pour le financement public. En 2009, le poids de la publicit� et des abonnements s'�quilibre autour de 45% des revenus du secteur chacun. D�s 2010, les revenus issus de la t�l�vision � p�age devraient d�passer au niveau mondial les recettes publicitaires globales pour atteindre un rapport d'environ 47%/ 44% � horizon 2013.

Florence LE BORGNE
Responsable du p�le T�l�vision & Contenu num�rique � l'IDATE

N�497 - Bonne ann�e ! -

2010-01-04

En 2010, d�cryptez le monde num�rique avec l'IDATE

N�496 - Le march� mondial des jeux vid�o -

2009-12-29

Dans la derni�re �dition de son �tude sur le � March� mondial des jeux vid�o �, il apparait clairement que le secteur des jeux vid�o continue d'enregistrer des r�sultats globalement prometteurs dans un contexte �conomique morose. En fin d'ann�e 2008, les ventes de jeux et de consoles dans les bacs ont battu des records. Le chiffre d'affaires des ventes d'�quipements (consoles de salon, consoles portables) s'�l�ve � 14.7 milliards EUR en 2008. Le chiffre d'affaires des ventes de logiciels (sur ordinateurs, consoles de salons, consoles portables, t�l�phones mobiles et Internet) s'�l�ve � 36.3 milliards EUR.

Selon Laurent Michaud, Responsable de la Practice Loisirs num�riques, � les r�sultats de ce secteur continueront sur leur lanc�e cette ann�e, avec n�anmoins des nuances selon les segments de march�. Ainsi, le secteur des �quipements va entrer dans une p�riode (2010-2012) o� les revenus issus de la vente vont chuter, les foyers ayant atteint un taux d'�quipement optimal. La croissance renouera d�s l'ann�e suivante avec l'arriv�e de consoles nouvelle g�n�ration. La croissance des revenus issus des ventes de logiciels ne suffira pas � compenser les pertes avant 2012�.

Fin 2009, le segment des jeux sur consoles de salon pourrait �tre � l'origine de pr�s de 30% des revenus du secteur. A noter cependant que ce segment enregistrera des r�sultats au mieux stables en 2009 sous l'effet cumul� d'une tension sur le budget des m�nages, d'un catalogue en de�� des attentes des joueurs et d'une concurrence des autres plates-formes. Cette part devrait se r�duire � 24% � l'horizon 2013, du fait de la croissance du segment des jeux en ligne notamment. D'ici cinq ans, celui-ci l'aura m�me d�pass� en termes de revenus. Mais plus encore, les jeux sur terminaux portables (t�l�phones ou consoles) pourraient devenir le 1er segment du jeu vid�o avec plus de 15 milliards EUR de chiffre d'affaires en 2013, � l'aube de l'arriv�e d'une nouvelle g�n�ration de consoles de salon.

Les tendances industrielles : un renouveau permanent

Les ann�es 2008 et 2009 dans le secteur des jeux vid�o sont marqu�es par une recrudescence de la concurrence. Elle y est plus vive que jamais. Elle s'exerce sur tous les supports de jeux, tous les r�seaux, tous les genres de jeux. Mais n'est-ce pas le signe que cette industrie se porte bien ?
Le secteur des jeux attire et est r�guli�rement pris pour exemple, notamment pour sa capacit� � s'adapter � la donne num�rique.
� Il est le seul secteur des loisirs num�riques � avoir relativement bien n�goci� le virage de la d�mat�rialisation ou la r�volution du num�rique, quand bien m�me des r�sistances demeurent ;
� Ses revenus enregistrent une croissance continue malgr� quelques ph�nom�nes cycliques contraires, notamment le cycle de vente des �quipements.

Le secteur est marqu� par plusieurs �v�nements qui feront des ann�es 2008-2009, une phase charni�re dans son d�veloppement.

1. La distribution d�mat�rialis�e est en marche. Sur toutes les plateformes, elle se d�ploie et rencontre progressivement l'adh�sion du public. La distribution num�rique semble d�sormais �tre admise par tous, des d�veloppeurs aux d�taillants en passant par les �diteurs, et elle a commenc� par les joueurs eux-m�mes.

2. Apple, avec son �cosyst�me organis� autour de l'iPhone et de son App Store, r�volutionne le jeu sur plateformes portables. La firme am�ricaine adopte un mod�le �conomique qui d�fie les mod�les "brick & mortar" des consoliers.

3. Le jeu en ligne est le segment le plus dynamique d'ici � 2013. Il va encore davantage se d�velopper gr�ce aux t�l�viseurs connect�s, � la vari�t� grandissante des catalogues de jeux, � la cohabitation de mod�les �conomiques stimulant la concurrence et � des strat�gies tarifaires multiples et agressives, allant du Free-To-Play � l'abonnement Premium.

4. Le secteur s'ouvre � de nouvelles formes de jeux, au-del� du jeu parfois. Le jeu occasionnel (jeu sans apprentissage, dont les parties sont courtes, et r�alis� dans un environnement graphique pas n�cessairement �labor�) offre des perspectives qui le conduisent vers le march� de masse. Le serious gaming, exploitation hors du secteur des jeux des technologies du jeu, va conna�tre des applications dans tous les secteurs de l'�conomie, � commencer par la sant�, la d�fense, la formation, la s�curit� civile, le tourisme?

5. Le jeu vid�o est au coeur du Web communautaire et social; il sera un des initiateurs du Web intelligent. L'int�gration de techniques de data mining dans les services de jeux en ligne, offrira la possibilit� de mieux comprendre les jeux en construisant une fonction de demande et de consommation individuelle par joueur.

6. Le jeu vid�o tirera profit des avanc�es technologiques des r�seaux. Le d�ploiement de la fibre optique permettra ainsi le d�veloppement de services de jeux stream�s, qui ne n�cessitent ni d'avoir une machine de jeu, ni d'avoir un medium de jeu, mais uniquement un terminal d'interaction, soit un t�l�viseur.

N�495 - Web 3D -

2009-12-28

Cette �tude explore l'environnement technologique et �conomique du web 3D, des utilisations partielles de la 3D aux univers virtuels full 3D. Elle identifie les services cl�s pouvant migrer vers la 3D (e-commerce, cartographie, serious gaming...) et pr�sente des focus sur les mondes virtuels (mettant en ?uvre des business models originaux de paiement d'objets virtuels), et sur la r�alit� augment�e (prochaine application cl� de la 3D sur mobile).

� Les premiers succ�s du Web 3D, i.e. de la 3D en temps r�el sur le Web, proviennent tr�s logiquement des applications pour lesquelles la 3D apporte de v�ritables atouts autour de l'immersion et/ou de la simulation.

La 3D se situe g�n�ralement au niveau d'un client logiciel sp�cifique voire du navigateur Web classique. Parmi les services immersifs majeurs, le jeu vid�o occupe une place cl� comme pr�curseur des technologies 3D applicables ensuite � d'autres segments. C'est aussi dans le domaine du jeu vid�o, autour des MMO (jeux massivement multi-joueurs) que les usages sont les plus avanc�s, notamment autour de solutions 3D tr�s avanc�es comme World of Warcraft. Le jeu en ligne p�se � lui seul 7.7 milliards EUR dans le monde. L'autre grand march� de l'immersion en 3D est celui des mondes virtuels, o� les utilisateurs interagissent entre eux. 23 millions d'internautes utilisent de mani�re active des mondes virtuels. La 3D dispose �galement d'atouts pour r�aliser des simulations dont tirent parti des applications comme le serious gaming, la visite virtuelle ou dans une moindre mesure l'e-commerce.

� Le Web 3D, autour notamment des mondes virtuels et des jeux Free2Play, est un segment cl� de l'�volution du Web, pour les fonctionnalit�s technologiques nouvelles qu'il apporte, mais surtout pour les nouveaux mod�les �conomiques mis en ?uvre pour les services immersifs.

La publicit�, qu'elle soit organique (organisation d'�v�nements) ou par affichage, est, contrairement aux autres services Web, une source de revenus secondaires. La grande majorit� des revenus des jeux vid�o en ligne provient encore de services payants par abonnement. Les mondes virtuels et les MMO s'en rapprochant utilisent de leur c�t� comme source premi�re de revenus la vente d'objets virtuels par micro-paiement. Ce march� p�se d�j� plus de 2 milliards USD.

Ce mod�le �conomique attire d'ailleurs d�sormais les leaders du r�seau social. Les services de simulation 3D (e-learning ?) utilisent pour l'instant les recettes traditionnelles de g�n�ration de revenus (licences, ventes d'objets ?).

� Bien qu'il existe d'autres d�fis � relever (fiscalit� des mondes virtuels, performances des r�seaux et des ordinateurs?), le principal frein au d�veloppement du Web 3D reste la cr�ation de contenus, qui demande des connaissances sp�cifiques et repr�sente encore des co�ts colossaux.
Si certains services peuvent r�utiliser des d�veloppements 3D offline, comme c'est le cas des jeux, la plupart doivent tout d�velopper et inciter les utilisateurs finaux � cr�er des contenus en 3D. La complexit� est encore plus forte sur mobile. La plupart des solutions de Web 3D, en dehors de solutions tr�s immersives, seront donc d'abord des solutions ajoutant une touche de 3D (objet, avatar) dans des pages Web ou dans des applications de r�alit� augment�e sur mobile, susceptibles d'�tre la prochaine "killer application" mobile.

D�finition
Le Web 3D repr�sente l'ensemble des contenus en 3D interactive int�gr�s � des pages Web. Il s'agit donc de visualisation par le navigateur Web et non par un logiciel ind�pendant, n�cessitant une installation sp�cifique (de type Google Earth). On ne tient compte que de la 3D en temps r�el, en excluant les repr�sentations en 3D pr�-calcul�es pouvant s'afficher sans pouvoir interagir (qui se rapprochent ainsi surtout de la vid�o).
Le concept est d�j� plut�t ancien, puisque les premi�res pistes furent �tudi�es autour du "Web 3D consortium" d�s 1994. Le Web 3D est en fait logiquement pouss� par les industries d�j� utilisatrices de la 3D en environnement offline et cherchant � proposer sur le Web les m�mes technologies. Les grandes initiatives viennent donc logiquement des m�mes industries que pour la 3D offline :
- cr�ation de contenu num�rique (DCC), autour principalement du monde des jeux vid�o et des effets sp�ciaux ;
- industrie lourde et commerce autour de la CAO, pour la conception et la simulation d'objets en amont de la cr�ation de prototypes physiques.

Segmentation
Le concept associ� au Web 3D prend de multiples formes en fonction :
- du degr� d'immersion : la 3D peut �tre utilis�e pour la repr�sentation compl�te de tout l'environnement (comme dans un monde virtuel) ou ne concerner que quelques �l�ments de la page Web (objet, avatar?) ;
- du degr� de sophistication de la 3D : certaines solutions utilisent de la vraie 3D, avec parfois une grande finesse (due � un d�coupage en de nombreux polygones) et une capacit� de navigation dans toutes les directions, alors que d'autres solutions se contentent de 2.5D i.e. de 2D isom�trique.

N�494 - In-Game Advertising -

2009-11-13

Le march� de la publicit� conna�t un ralentissement quant aux budgets accord�s par les annonceurs, except� sur Internet. Pour Laurent Michaud, Chef de projet de l?�tude In-Game Advertising : � Le jeu vid�o est encore sous-estim� par des annonceurs timor�s � l'�gard d'un secteur qu'ils connaissent mal. Il nous semble que ce sous-investissement devrait s'estomper d'ici 2010-2011 �.

La publicit� dans les jeux vid�o, ou In-Game Advertising (IGA) est en effet un march� en forte croissance. Ses revenus devraient passer de 716 millions d'euros au niveau mondial � 1.4 milliard d'Euro, soit un taux de croissance annuel moyen de 18.5% sur la p�riode. Cette �tude, qui pr�sente en d�tail l?organisation de ce march�, ainsi que les strat�gies des acteurs en pr�sence, apporte un �clairage nouveau sur ses perspectives prometteuses, ses enjeux et ses leviers de croissance � moyen terme.

Plusieurs ph�nom�nes se conjuguent et sous-tendent le d�veloppement rapide du march� :

� Un effet rattrapage des budgets publicitaires en direction du jeu vid�o. Longtemps m�sestim� par les annonceurs car s'adressant � un profil trop limit� de consommateurs, le jeu vid�o est d�sormais davantage grand public.

� Le travail d'�vang�lisation orchestr� par des r�gies sp�cialis�es en direction des annonceurs et des agences de communication produira un effet � court terme.

� La publicit� In-Game dynamique offre des possibilit�s encore largement inexploit�es en mati�re de suivi des impacts de la publicit�, du profiling en temps r�el des populations cibles, de la mise � jour en temps r�el des messages publicitaires?

� La viabilit� des outils de mesure des impressions est indispensable au d�veloppement de la publicit� dans les jeux vid�o. M�me si une standardisation logicielle bas niveau n'est pas encore de mise, chacun s'accorde sur les r�sultats prometteurs des initiatives de l'IAB.

� Les principaux �diteurs de jeu vid�o sont conscients que les revenus qu'ils peuvent retirer de l'insertion de publicit� dans leurs jeux ne sont plus n�gligeables.

� Le jeu en ligne communautaire et dans les r�seaux sociaux est le segment de march� du jeu qui est le plus dynamique en mati�re de publicit�. Malgr� l'h�t�rog�n�it� de ce segment, ses joueurs semblent moins r�fractaires que leurs a�n�s � la publicit�, � condition que le message promotionnel s'inscrive le plus naturellement possible dans l'exp�rience de jeu.

� La connexion des terminaux de loisirs num�riques est un facteur cl� pour le succ�s de l'In-Game Advertising. Fin 2009, entre 70 et 75% des propri�taires de consoles de salon connectent leur machine � Internet, soit plus de 100 millions de foyers. L'IDATE estime qu'ils pourraient �tre plus de 225 millions en 2013.

� L'ann�e 2009 marque l'entr�e de la t�l�vision dans l'�re de l'Internet, de l'interactivit� instantan�e et des interfaces graphiques enrichies. La t�l�vision connect�e h�bergera des services de jeux vid�o � la demande qui offriront une fen�tre suppl�mentaire � la publicit� sur un petit �cran id�al pour cela.

N�493 - Next Gen TV -

2009-11-12

Dans ce dernier rapport, l'IDATE pr�sente son analyse des enjeux li�s � la multiplication des innovations permettant de recevoir des programmes de t�l�vision via Internet, � partir d'un benchmark tr�s d�taill� des offres des acteurs qui innovent en mati�re de services de t�l�vision : offres, fonctionnalit�s, distribution, contenus, tarifs et usages. Une typologie op�rationnelle synth�tise les innovations cl�s en termes de contenus, de services, de logiciels et de terminaux.

L'innovation dans le domaine des services de t�l�vision s'inscrit dans la tendance de long terme de convergence entre la t�l�vision traditionnelle et l'Internet, qui se caract�rise par les �volutions suivantes :

� en termes d'usages :
- l'augmentation des usages d�lin�aris�s et la personnalisation de la consommation des contenus ;
- la portabilit� des contenus ;
- une consommation qui combine contenus broadcast, personnels et Web.

� en termes d'acc�s :
- la multiplication des solutions pour la distribution de l'image et la banalisation du r�seau ;
- le r�le croissant du terminal comme lieu d'agr�gation des contenus.

� en termes de financement :
- la fragmentation des recettes publicitaires ;
- une offre de contenus gratuits qui p�se sur le financement des programmes payants.

Ces �volutions d�structurent la cha�ne de valeur traditionnelle de la t�l�vision et en particulier la distribution des contenus : la complexit� croissante de la distribution technique des contenus favorise l'apparition de nouveaux interm�diaires, fournisseurs de solutions techniques (d�codeurs, logiciels). Ces interm�diaires, dans certains cas, jouent un r�le pr�pond�rant dans le processus commercial de distribution.

Les conclusions de ces comparaisons permettent de disposer d'une grille d'analyse pr�cise de l'innovation dans le domaine des services de t�l�vision permettant de proposer une vision des futurs services de TV.

N�492 - Radio Spectrum -

2009-11-09

At a time of explosive growth for mobile broadband and the progressive deployment of 4G networks starting next year, new frequency bands are being made available. Digital dividend spectrum was already awarded last year in the US, and is progressively being harmonised in Western Europe. In the meantime, the refarming of the 900 MHz band creates an opportunity for mobile broadband to be made available in rural areas.

This latest IDATE report focuses on three main topics: Digital Dividend, spectrum refarming and 4G Spectrum.

Digital Dividend
� The Digital Dividend represents a unique opportunity to facilitate the dissemination of mobile broadband in Western Europe. The 800 MHz band (790-862 MHz) freed up in Europe for mobile communications has a very high value for mobile operators. The takeoff of mobile broadband adds value to this new spectrum.
� Analogue TV switch-off has already happened in the US and is progressively taking place in Europe with a switch-off to be completed by the end of 2015.
� The status of the Digital Dividend in Western European countries is getting clearer as most European countries have already allocated, or shall do so soon, the 800 MHz band (790-862 MHz) to mobile services. The regulatory framework is getting clearer and the technical conditions have been established by the CEPT.
� Harmonisation throughout Europe is likely to be reached and this adds even more value to the 800 MHz band. Most mobile operators are planning to use LTE in FDD mode in this band.
� USA took the lead and auctioned the second part of its own digital dividend early in 2008. The 700 MHz auctions in the USA were a real success even though the D block was not allocated. The reserve price ($10 billion) was largely exceeded and the winning bids reached US$ 18.9 billion. This confirms the great interest which the UHF band has for those mobile operators who are going to deploy LTE.

Spectrum refarming
� The use of the 900 MHz band by 3G or 4G technologies represents a short-term opportunity to facilitate mobile broadband coverage of rural areas.
� Regulatory hurdles have been lifted in Europe as the GSM Directive was repealed in mid-2009.
� The potential benefits for operators are the possibility to provide extended coverage for 3G as well as reduced CAPEX and OPEX.
� Spectrum refarming can be considered as a trend in Western Europe and is coherent with the wish of NRAs to offer broadband access in rural areas but could be slowed down in many countries due to the distribution and fragmentation of the 900 MHz spectrum between the main players.
� The refarmed 900 MHz band will be mainly used by 3G technologies but some operators are considering using the 900 MHz band for LTE (in Sweden, for instance).
� 900 MHz refarming has already begun in Finland and is planned in many other countries.

4G spectrum
� The continuous and exponential growth of data traffic on mobile networks will increase the need for new spectrum.
� LTE is going to dominate the 4G field; our projections show that there will be more than 350 million LTE subscribers at the end of 2015. LTE commercial growth is expected to start in 2011 in the USA and in Japan and from 2012 on in Western Europe.
� LTE needs larger bandwidth (typically 10 and 20 MHz) to deliver all its benefits in terms of large data rate and spectrum efficiency.
� 4G mobile networks will use various combinations of frequency bands in the different regions of the world. In the USA, LTE is first going to be implemented in the 700 MHz band.
� We expect the 2.6 GHz and 800 MHz bands to be the most widely used in Western Europe for 4G deployments. The 900 MHz band will be subject to refarming and spectrum arrangements between operators.
� 2.6 GHz status in Europe: no harmonisation in terms of FDD/TDD distribution is expected. This could slow down the availability of terminals and increase their cost.
� In the long term, the 3.5 GHz band will become available for mobile applications and could be used in the cities to provide very high data rates. Technical compatibility between fixed and mobile networks and competition issues could prove to be a problem though.
� The S-Band was allocated in May 2009 by the European Commission to Inmarsat and Solaris. It could be used as a complement to terrestrial mobile networks but the regulatory conditions still have to be clarified.
� The 2.6 GHz and 800 MHz bands will be auctioned in the years to come in Western Europe. We expect prices for the 2.6 GHz spectrum to be in the � 0.02-� 0.5 per MHz per pop and for the 800 MHz spectrum in the � 0.1-� 1 per MHz per pop range.
� TDD spectrum is less attractive to operators than FDD spectrum as shown by its valuation in Sweden and by the lack of interest in Hong Kong.

N�491 - Les r�seaux hybrides -

2009-11-10

Dans sa derni�re �tude consacr�e aux r�seaux hybrides, Maxime Baudry, Chef de projet, note que � les r�seaux hybrides satellite/mobile permettent de d�ployer de nombreux services, dont les plus prometteurs sont li�s � l'Internet mobile et � la TV mobile. Le contexte semble en effet favorable :

� Apr�s l'octroi de spectre aux Etats-Unis il y a quelques ann�es, l'Union europ�enne a accord� cette ann�e deux licences paneurop�ennes en bande-S : une � l'op�rateur Solaris Mobile qui r�sulte d'un joint-venture entre Eutelsat et SES Global, deux des quatre plus gros op�rateurs mondiaux, et une � Inmarsat, lui aussi un poids lourd du secteur.

� Via le lancement de ces services hybrides, les op�rateurs satellite comptent bien profiter des futurs march�s porteurs du secteur des t�l�communications, et tenter de se positionner en compl�ment incontournable des acteurs terrestres, voire en concurrent lorsque cela leur est possible.

Les op�rateurs satellite se pr�parent au d�veloppement exponentiel de l'Internet mobile...
Au niveau mondial, et plus particuli�rement dans les pays d�velopp�s, le renouvellement du parc des terminaux en faveur des smartphones, terminaux haut de gamme permettant d'acc�der aux services multim�dias mobiles, favorise l'usage de l'Internet mobile. Selon Cisco, un terminal de type smartphone g�n�re plus de trafic IP que 30 terminaux mobiles standards, tandis qu'une carte PC g�n�re plus de trafic que 450 mobiles standards.

� L'�mergence de tarifs � taux fixe coupl�e avec une couverture �tendue des r�seaux mobiles et des nouveaux smartphones sans cesse plus puissants laissent entrevoir un d�veloppement fulgurant de l'Internet mobile dans les ann�es � venir.

� Qui plus est, certaines zones g�ographiques d�pourvues d'infrastructures terrestres haut d�bit cons�quentes, notamment en Europe de l'Est, semblent d'ores et d�j� miser sur ces nouvelles technologies, comme en t�moigne le d�veloppement en tr�s forte croissance de la 3G/3.5G via les cl�s USB int�gr�es aux PC.

...et de la TV mobile
En Europe, la TV mobile a �t� lanc�e en Italie en 2006 juste avant le d�but de la coupe du monde de football en Allemagne. Suivant la m�me logique, l?Autriche et la Suisse, pays organisateurs du championnat d?Europe de football en 2008, ont d�ploy� leurs offres peu avant le lancement de la comp�tition.

� En Italie, en Suisse ainsi qu?aux Pays-Bas, les services de t�l�vision mobile sont d�ploy�s � discr�tion par les op�rateurs de t�l�phonie mobile. Ainsi les taux de couverture des services varient en fonction des r�seaux des op�rateurs ; la composition et la tarification des bouquets diff�rent d?un op�rateur � un autre. Les offres sont payantes et se composent en g�n�ral d?un bouquet basique que les abonn�s peuvent �toffer de packages premium avec plus de cha�nes th�matiques, des programmes adulte, du sport (r�sum�s, �missions hebdomadaires, matchs en direct) ou encore des contenus � la demande. Suivant la nature des programmes, la tarification s?effectue � la journ�e, � la semaine ou au mois.

� En Autriche, une licence de t�l�vision mobile broadcast a �t� attribu�e par le r�gulateur � Media Broadcast, filiale hongroise de l?op�rateur de r�seau TDF. Media Broadcast a ensuite nou� des accords avec les op�rateurs mobiles Orange, A1 et 3, distribuant �galement chacun une offre particuli�re.

� En Finlande et en Hongrie, des services de t�l�phonie mobile DVB-H ont �t� d�ploy�s par des op�rateurs de r�seaux, respectivement Digita et Antenna Hungaria (tous deux filiales de TDF) donnant lieu au lancement de services free-to-air comportant peu de cha�nes.

� Ailleurs en Europe, des tests d?une diffusion en DVB-H dans diff�rentes zones au sein d?un m�me territoire national ont �t� men�s ou sont en cours.

L'octroi de deux licences paneurop�ennes va permettre le d�veloppement prochain de tels services
Apr�s avoir lanc� un appel � candidatures en 2008, la Commission europ�enne a annonc� en avril dernier avoir accord� deux licences paneurop�ennes en bande-S (2 GHz) de 30 MHz chacune (15 MHz Terre-espace, 15 MHz espace-Terre).

Les deux soci�t�s retenues, Solaris Mobile (issue d'une joint-venture entre Eutelsat et SES Astra) et Inmarsat, doivent respecter les obligations suivantes :

� engagement � couvrir 60% du territoire communautaire lors des premiers lancements commerciaux ;

� engagement � rendre ces services disponibles pour au moins 50% de la population de l'UE 27 ;

� engagement � couvrir l'ensemble du territoire communautaire avant 2015.

Ces syst�mes MSS-CGC/DVB-SH pr�sentent des avantages significatifs, en termes de couverture, et de co�ts
Les mod�lisations de d�ploiement de r�seaux terrestres, r�alis�es dans le cadre de ce rapport, d�montrent que le satellite est une solution �conomique pour assurer les compl�ments de couverture pour les r�seaux mobiles terrestres. Ainsi, il appara�t que les op�rateurs mobiles auront de grandes difficult�s � d�ployer leurs infrastructures � haut d�bit mobile au-del� de 90% de population couverte.

M�me s'ils mutualisent leurs efforts, sc�nario le plus probable, ils ne devraient pas parvenir � couvrir efficacement 3 � 5% de population, ce qui laissera un march� de niche pour la technologie satellitaire.

N�490 - Vid�o 3D -

2009-10-13

La vid�o 3D, m�me si elle occupe le devant de la sc�ne, est un march� en devenir porteur d'innovation et de croissance pour les acteurs de la t�l�vision et du cin�ma. Le rapport publi� par l'IDATE dresse un �tat des lieux complet de ce march� � travers la pr�sentation des solutions techniques, des exp�rimentations en cours et des premiers d�veloppements commerciaux. Il propose des sc�narios de d�ploiement de la 3D � l'horizon 2015.

Principales conclusions
� La st�r�oscopie, le standard 3D actuel, est consid�r�e comme la technologie de premi�re g�n�ration de la vid�o 3D native. L'autost�r�oscopie, permettant de s'affranchir du port de lunettes de visionnage, est pr�sent�e comme le prochain format 3D.

� Avec l'arriv�e de la 3D, la cha�ne technique audiovisuelle devra s'adapter. Le principal point en suspens reste le format d'image retenu en l'absence de standard dans l'industrie. De plus, pour appr�cier la 3D, le consommateur final devra s'�quiper d?un nouvel �cran (t�l�viseur/moniteur) compatible.

� Facteur de d�veloppement positif, l'industrie devrait b�n�ficier des efforts consentis lors de la transition � la HD, puisque la 3D r�utilisera l'infrastructure HD en postproduction mais �galement en distribution.

� Le d�veloppement du cin�ma 3D semble irreversible, l'ensemble de la cha�ne technique semble r�pondre aux probl�matiques pos�es par la 3D, de l'accroissement du nombre de films produits � l'�quipement des salles. Qui plus est, un mod�le �conomique semble proche, avec un revenu par titre sup�rieur dans le cas des sorties 3D.

� L'avenir de la t�l�vision 3D semble moins clair, les contenus sont rares, les mod�les �conomiques non �tablis et un facteur exog�ne � la fili�re reste probl�matique, � savoir le niveau d'�quipement des m�nages en �quipements terminaux compatibles avec le visionnage en 3D. La mise en place d'un standard commun au plus t�t semble critique. Il est �galement souhaitable que les synergies 3D/HD soient maximales pour assurer le d�veloppement de la 3D.

� Le march� du jeu vid�o va b�n�ficier de sa facilit� de transfert vers la 3D, dans un premier temps pour une consommation sur PC. Il pourrait ensuite �tre un levier crucial pour l'�quipement des foyers en t�l�viseurs 3D, ce qui en retour faciliterait le d�ploiement des services de t�l�vision � ce format. Un dilemme de la poule et de l'oeuf s'annonce n�anmoins avec des incertitudes du c�t� des consoliers Nintendo, Sony et Microsoft quant � leur lancement de consoles de nouvelle g�n�ration sans qu'un march� des t�l�viseurs 3D se soit install�.

Les sc�narios de d�veloppement de la 3D
� Un march� de l'�v�nementiel cin�ma - Ce sc�nario, centr� sur l'exploitation de la 3D dans les cin�mas, permet un d�veloppement rapide de l'offre 3D, la cha�ne technique �tant pr�te. N�anmoins, le march� 3D reste cantonn� � une consommation �v�nementielle et � une audience restreinte.

� La 3DTV - Ce sc�nario est centr� sur l'usage TV, au travers d'une consommation lin�aire (cha�ne TV3D) et/ou non lin�aire (du Blu-Ray � la VoD). Pour atteindre un march� de masse � long terme, l'industrie devra absorber les diff�rentes g�n�rations de 3D, st�r�o-, auto-, multiscopique.

� La 3D multi-supports - C'est le sc�nario le plus favorable au d�veloppement d'un march� "de masse" de la 3D � l'horizon 2015. Le march� s'inscrit dans un cercle vertueux o� l'exposition maximale des contenus 3D favorise la consommation, elle-m�me facilit�e par la mise � disposition d'une offre riche et vari�e de contenus 3D, disponibles via de nombreuses plateformes.

N�489 - VoIP Mobile -

2009-10-16

"La VoIP Mobile est tr�s souvent per�ue comme une menace par les op�rateurs de services mobiles. Elle risque d'entamer leurs revenus issus de la voix. Elle est �galement susceptible de les cantonner dans un r�le de simple gestionnaire de r�seaux. Elle est aussi souvent pr�sent�e comme la prochaine grande �volution du march� des services mobiles", commente Soichi Nakajima, Chef de projet de ce rapport.

Cette derni�re �tude publi�e par l'IDATE analyse les mythes et r�alit�s de la VoIP Mobile, les avantages et inconv�nients de la VoIP manag�e ; elle pr�sente ses pr�visions de taux de p�n�tration de la VoIP Mobile.

Principales conclusions

� Dans la plupart des cas, les tarifs les plus avantageux de la VoIP mobile concernent les appels internationaux.

� Skype domine le march� de la VoIP sur le cr�neau des appels low cost. D'autres acteurs ind�pendants int�grent l'offre de Skype � leur propre offre afin de survivre sur ce march�.

� Google, qui est le dernier grand nom � �tre entr� sur le march� de la VoIP Mobile, a les moyens de bouleverser le march� en s'appuyant sur son approche des communications unifi�es et la puissance de sa marque.

� Actuellement, les MNO leaders �tudient les mod�les �conomiques de la VoIP ou sont en train d'�valuer les conditions de profitabilit� et de QoS de tels services d�ploy�s � grande �chelle, tandis que leurs challengers utilisent la VoIP comme un outil de diff�rentiation.

� La question est plut�t de savoir quand les op�rateurs commenceront � offrir des services de VoIP mobile. Les premi�res offres devraient d'abord s'appuyer sur des partenariats, pour ensuite �tre propos�es par des pure players.

� Les facteurs cl�s du d�collage de la VoIP Mobile sont les suivants : comp�titivit� du march� mobile, d�veloppement de la VoIP fixe, p�n�tration des abonnements illimit�s, disponibilit� de terminaux compatibles, acceptation par les MNO des applications de VoIP Mobile.

� Il existe une r�elle opportunit� pour que la VoIP permette d'augmenter les revenus donn�es, tout en compensant les pertes des revenus voix.

Les pr�visions de l'IDATE

L'IDATE d�finit un utilisateur de VoIP Mobile comme un utilisateur qui utilise une application de VoIP � partir d'un terminal mobile sur un r�seau d'op�rateur mobile, au moins une fois par mois. A partir de cette d�finition, l'IDATE pr�voit que le Royaume-Uni fera partie des pays les plus avanc�s tandis qu'en France le d�collage sera plus lent avec une acc�l�ration attendue � partir de 2013.

La part des utilisateurs de VoIP Mobile sur le nombre total d'abonn�s mobiles pourrait atteindre 13% dans les pays �tudi�s. Finalement, lorsque l'on traduit ce pourcentage en nombre d'abonn�s, l'IDATE estime qu'� fin 2014, on comptera 75 millions d'utilisateurs de VoIP Mobile aux Etats-Unis, au Royaume-Uni, en Allemagne et en France.

N�488 - The rise of Connected Devices -

2009-10-06

Following the success of smartphones, dedicated to mobile internet browing and data exchange, a new category of connected devices has emerged, in which netbooks have been the most successful to date, and it has radically changed the dynamics of the mobile telecom market.

The report, published by IDATE, provides a thorough analysis of the Connected Devices market up to 2013 and its impact for players of the mobile value chain.

� Prospects for this market are bright. Based on our estimates of the Connected Device market for each category of devices (Netbooks, MIDs, Electronics readers), IDATE forecasts that the Connected Devices market will rise from a 1.5% of total handset volumes shipped in 2008 (~18 Million Units) to around 11.1% in 2013 with 166 Million Units shipped. Netbooks will account for the main part (62 million Units shipped in 2013).

� This prosperous market has attracted the interest of major players from IT and the Mobile sector, who are trying to propose hardware and software products at the convergence of the fixed and nomad worlds. A strategic battle is thus taking place between hardware providers, such as Intel and ARM, and software providers, like Windows as well as Google (Linux based solution) , to conquer these new nomad platforms.

� In this growing market, Mobile Operators provide an entry point to the mobile web and have to broaden their devices portfolio. The value proposition has been increasingly attractive for netbooks and their associated data plans. Whereas MID and electronic book traction has been limited for now, most operators worldwide are now proposing netbooks offers bundled with a data allowance. However, these offers are still largely experimental with uncertain profitability and sustainability due to the lack of any incremental service strategy: operators are still trying out different levels of upfront subsidisation/monthly plan level combinations and limiting the number of authorised subscriptions for each plan.

� New challenges and opportunities are emerging for operators. Providing connected devices could add complexity: based on the success of netbook sales bundled with data plans, hopes are put on the possible transformation of mobile operators business into a new distribution channel for consumer electronics devices, but this also means customer support and product handling. On the other hand, the development of Mobile Cloud Computing services could become an important opportunity for operators proposing software as a service for this new range of connected devices.

N�487 - Enqu�te PME 2009 -

2009-10-05

Sur la base d'un �tat des lieux chiffr� des niveaux d'�quipements et des projets TIC des TPE/PME, cette enqu�te propose une analyse d�taill�e des usages et services innovants en entreprise. Cette 5�me �dition est ainsi l'occasion de faire un point pr�cis sur le niveau de diffusion de la VoIP/ToIP, de la convergence fixe-mobile, des acc�s distants, du SaaS ou encore des outils collaboratifs traditionnels et avanc�s...

Le champ des activit�s marchandes hors agriculture en France m�tropolitaine compte 2.9 millions d'entreprises priv�es de 0 � 250 salari�s et emploie pr�s de 13 millions d'actifs, soit respectivement 85% du tissu industriel et pr�s de 50% la masse salariale globale.

Les investissements TIC des PME dans la crise
Dans un contexte de crise g�n�ralis�, une TPE/PME sur deux d�clare ne rien envisager de changer � ses projets IT � court terme. Pour les autres, deux profils de r�action se d�gagent :
� un premier profil plus � attentiste �, dont le mot d'ordre est "report et rationalisation"
� et un second profil � �conome �, davantage ax� sur l'anticipation des projets susceptibles de g�n�rer des �conomies imm�diates : ren�gociation des contrats, et mise ne place d'outils IT susceptible de r�duire les co�ts de transports notamment.

La diffusion des usages innovants s�acc�l�re
L'int�gration des TIC n'est pas homog�ne sur cette cible de march�, particuli�rement entre TPE -0 � 9 salari�s- et plus grosses PME. Ainsi, les premi�res, dont la taille des parcs d'�quipement est r�duite, ont une approche des TIC essentiellement "fonctionnelle" (i.e. motiv�e par les services) quand les secondes, doivent �galement int�grer une approche infrastructure, plus fortement contrainte par les cycles de renouvellement d'�quipement r�seau, n�cessitant de lourds investissements initiaux.

Au-del� du clivage central de la taille, certains secteurs d'activit� s'illustrent �galement par des comportements primo-adoptants vis-�-vis des solutions innovantes : c'est notamment le cas des Assurances, Organismes financiers, SSII et Bureaux d'�tudes.

VoIP
En mati�re de VoIP/ToIP, les tendances se confirment au cours de l'ann�e �coul�e sans bouleversement fondamental. Ainsi, la migration de tout ou partie du r�seau t�l�com traditionnel vers l'IP est aujourd'hui effective chez pr�s d'une PME connect�e sur 2. Apr�s une phase de forte croissance port�e par le succ�s des Box ADSL particuli�rement chez les TPE, le relai de croissance se d�place actuellement vers le haut du march� PME et les solutions full IP, de type Centrex ou IPBX. La diffusion de ce type de solution reste n�anmoins fortement conditionn�e par le cycle de renouvellement des autocoms, lequel se poursuit sur un rythme tendanciel en d�pit des nouvelles offres commerciales du march�.

Mobilit�
Les PC portables continuent d'investir le march� des TPE/PME � la faveur � la fois de primo-�quipement et d'accroissement du parc en place. Le parc de laptops d�ploy� b�n�ficie aujourd'hui d'une forte connectivit� mobile en Wifi mais de plus en plus �galement via cl�s USB 3G/3G+. Les attentes des TPE/PME vis-�-vis de la data mobile se traduisent aussi au niveau de leur flotte mobile, avec pr�s de 15% de mobiles b�n�ficiant effectivement d'un acc�s distant � Internet et/ou au syst�me d'information de l'entreprise.

Convergence Fixe Mobile
Si la diffusion de l'IP en environnement professionnel est une tendance in�luctable, elle reste encore contrainte par les cycles de renouvellement des �quipements (aujourd'hui seulement 1 t�l�phonique fixe sur 4 est un poste IP et les PABX traditionnels restent majoritaires) et par la n�cessit� de s'approprier les nouvelles fonctionnalit�s qu'elle permet : toutes les PME/TPE, et particuli�rement les plus petites, ne sont pas encore matures pour les communications unifi�es et la convergence fixe mobile.

Les outils collaboratifs
Au del� de la t�l�phonie sur IP les fonctions plus avanc�es sont encore mal appr�hend�es par une majorit� de TPE/PME. N�anmoins, le haut du march� marque les tendances de demain : avec notamment une app�tence soutenue pour les de solutions de Groupware et de messagerie unifi�e (respectivement 40% et 34% d'entreprises utilisatrices chez les 10 � 250 salari�s). La Messagerie Instantan�e plus en retrait au global, a cependant trouv� un march� chez les plus petites TPE. Les employ�s des TPE/PME ont encore une approche traditionnelle des outils de collaboration et font tr�s massivement confiance au t�l�phone, mails et r�unions en face � face dans leur �change entre partenaires. Le Web 2.0 est tr�s encore peu utilis� avec 5% des TPE/PME familiaris�es � l'usage des blogs, wiki, r�seaux sociaux en environnement professionnel.

Les applicatifs off et online
L'environnement applicatif des PME/TPE ax� sur le mail et les logiciels de bureautique, offre �galement une place centrale aux logiciels m�tiers ainsi qu'� la sauvegarde/s�curit� (plus de 50% de TPE/PME �quip�es pour ces deux applicatifs). L'achat de licence reste le mode d'acquisition dominant sur un march� ou les services en mode h�berg� se heurtent �galement au d�veloppement de l'Open source. Aujourd'hui, hors messagerie Internet, seules 10% des TPE/PME ont souscrit un service en mode Saas. En outre, lorsque ce type de solution est adopt� il est rarement g�n�ralis� � l'ensemble des applicatifs ; ce sch�ma ouvre la voix � des formules modulaires par brique applicative, plut�t qu'a des formules globalis�es.

N�486 - FMC -

2009-09-23

Les revenus g�n�r�s par des offres de Convergence Fixe Mobile : 900 millions EUR en 2013 pour les cinq principaux pays d'Europe de l'Ouest.

Ainsi, � l'horizon 2013, l'IDATE estime que le march� de la convergence fixe mobile, segment du march� des services mobiles, pourrait g�n�rer 900 millions EUR de revenus dans les cinq pays �tudi�s, soit une contribution de 4% aux revenus des services mobiles. Cette tendance permettrait aux op�rateurs d?amoindrir l?�rosion de l'ARPU, constat� ces derni�res ann�es par un effet de la concurrence sur les prix.

Un �ventail d'offres large et disparate

L'�tude des catalogues d'offres des op�rateurs des cinq principaux pays d?Europe de l'Ouest montre une grande diversit� des services de convergence fixe mobile (CFM). Ils peuvent diff�rer soit au sein d?un m�me op�rateur qui couvre plusieurs pays et qui n'a pas la m�me strat�gie selon les march�s, soit au sein d?un pays o� les op�rateurs se positionnent diff�remment pour des raisons strat�giques, techniques et �conomiques. Les op�rateurs peuvent en effet int�grer dans leur catalogue d?offres un ou plusieurs types de services de convergence fixe mobile :

� convergence de tarifs : un m�me plan tarifaire pour les fixes et les mobiles ;

� convergence de services : un m�me ensemble de services accessibles depuis le fixe ou le mobile avec une optimisation des co�ts de communications ;

� convergence de terminaux : un terminal mobile dual-mode avec des fonctionnalit�s avanc�es pour les communications fixes et mobiles.

Les offres de convergence fixe mobile constituent, pour les op�rateurs, un outil permettant principalement :

� la r�tention du client, en prenant en charge tous ses acc�s fixes et mobiles, ainsi que les services voix et donn�es dans le cas des op�rateurs int�gr�s ;

� dans le cadre d'une strat�gie de "win back", la capacit� � regagner la confiance des clients partis � la concurrence ;

� la diminution de l?effet d?�rosion de l?ARPU des services de t�l�phonie fixes et mobiles ;

� la possibilit�, pour des projets importants destin�s aux grandes PME ou grands comptes, de proposer des prestations d?int�gration, d?exploitation et de maintenance afin de valoriser l'ARPU global par client : c?est surtout le cas des op�rateurs int�gr�s offrant une large palette de services associ�s � leur c?ur de m�tier de fournisseur de solutions t�l�coms.

Pr�visions de march�

Les revenus g�n�r�s dans les cinq principaux pays d'Europe de l'Ouest sur des offres de convergence fixe mobile pourraient atteindre 900 millions EUR en 2013.

Ces offres pourraient permettre aux op�rateurs d?avoir un l�ger effet positif sur la baisse de l'ARPU constat�e ces derni�res ann�es.

Mais le march� de la convergence fixe mobile en entreprise peine surtout face aux surco�ts, (en termes d'investissements en �quipements mais aussi au niveau des co�ts d'exploitation) que peuvent repr�senter ces offres pour l'entreprise au regard des b�n�fices que les utilisateurs peuvent en tirer. En ces temps de crise, la rationalisation des investissements n?incite pas les entreprises � adopter ce type de services.

Si l'entreprise peut percevoir un r�el avantage dans une vision mono-fournisseur t�l�com (une seule facture, un seul interlocuteur pour l'ensemble de ses solutions voix voire donn�es, un seul centre de support?), il n'en demeure pas moins que les n�gociations pour le renouvellement des solutions seront plus difficiles. Changer d'op�rateur sera tr�s difficile lorsque l'entreprise est mono-fournisseur. Cette vision est encore renforc�e chez les grands comptes : il existe bien souvent une volont� d'avoir plusieurs fournisseurs pour les diff�rentes solutions t�l�coms de l'entreprise. La position de mono-fournisseur peut donc constituer un frein pour l'adoption des solutions de convergence fixe mobile.

Guillaume Goudard
Project Leader
g.goudard@idate.org

Cette �tude dresse un �tat des lieux des services de convergence fixe mobile � destination des entreprises, � travers l'analyse des catalogues d?offres des principaux op�rateurs de cinq pays d'Europe de l'Ouest (France, Allemagne, Espagne, Italie et Royaume-Uni).

Sur la base d'une enqu�te r�alis�e en France en 2008, elle fournit un certain nombre d'indicateurs sur les march�s de la convergence fixe mobile et de la VoIP en entreprise, pour aboutir � une estimation du march� de la convergence fixe mobile en entreprise.

N�485 - eHealth -

2009-09-23

�The major question on eHealth is a matter of �when�, not �if��, says Steven Andlauer, �assuming that state-of-the-art implementations can drive operational and financial efficiency�.

Key findings
________
� The market is still in its infancy and will take two more years to attain serious growth. Issues of regulation, language, investment and training need to be resolved first.
� IT systems in hospitals and for physicians will most probably be the first to grow, quickly followed by home monitoring solutions.
� Healthcare systems differ greatly from country to country, with a multitude of stakeholders in each: insurances, physicians, nurses, the pharmaceutical sector, regulator, schools of medicine and more. Only country-by-country strategies will work.
� Consolidation of the market is likely; the eHealth market is scattered at present, with a few, leading Health IT firms (mainly US-based) and many SMEs.
� The telecom industry, and in particular network operators, have potential business cases in the eHealth market. For these, key assets are secure connectivity and sales channels.
__________

IDATE has segmented eHealth into three relevant markets, whilst acknowledging that some large companies are active in more than one of these segments:
� Healthcare IT systems
� Home Healthcare
� Transactional services, supporting the two previous segments.

Of those operating in these three segments, IDATE has identified the following five main types of players:
� Health solution developers
� Medical-grade hardware vendors
� Telecom operators
� IT giants
� Web giants.

This market has two characteristics typical of an early market with intense competition: it is very fragmented, and no player has yet reached a global scale on its own. In consequence, companies rely heavily on partnerships to deliver globally across the value chain: whilst some of the Health IT heavyweights offer a large set of solutions all packaged by themselves (including datacentres, outsourcing and patient portals) in most cases partnership deals are struck so that specialists in each fields handle part of the solution.

This fragmentation is likely the result of the complexity of the eHealth market mentioned above: learning how to address a market, developing ad hoc products, can be a matter of years and is not totally replicable to another geography and/or product. Moreover, with medicine being an art in constant evolution, its tools change, its cures evolve and systems must be adapted accordingly. This leaves little headroom for specialised players to focus on other matters than simply keeping their products up to date. Large generalist IT players, on the contrary, are well-positioned to bring this industry to the next level, focusing on integration and maintenance rather than on product development.

The perspective of telecom operators

From the perspective of the telecom industry, eHealth can be considered a growth driver, either by providing direct services to hospitals and patients including portals, devices and eHealth 3G data plans or through indirect services to eHealth solution vendors such as connectivity and authentication APIs and billing. Practically, the prime elements that telecoms can bring to this industry include sensors and communicating modules integrated within mobile handsets, ad hoc secured connectivity services and end-user training capacity.

However, there are also factors which may hinder telecoms entry in this market:
� Reluctance of end-users, including physicians, to embrace new technologies
� Medical data security hurdles: ethical and legal requirements
� Potential health hazards from wireless communication technology
� Management of a number of partnerships for products and/or specific areas.

Market potential: The addressable market for operators

The market of connected healthcare is still at a very early stage. However, caution is called for with regard to how fast it will evolve, due to the intrinsic barriers in the healthcare industry, which is thoroughly regulated and generally operates under difficult financial conditions.

The addressable market for operators is by no means limited to just the transactional connectivity segment. The addressable market for telecom operators will include some overlap between the home healthcare segment and the transactional segments, and Health IT systems (considered separatly in this report), for operators with Business Services operations :

� Telemedicine solutions - These solutions encompass remote patient condition management for patients with chronic conditions. These platforms are provided through such links as home television and broadband connections directly in the patient�s home.

� Health portal information - Online health portals, such as the Revolution Health portal, were created as a sort of �wellness portal� where users can assess their health risks, set personal goals for physical health and trade information on local physicians. These sites can be viewed as a combination of medical information and social networking sites.

� Personal Medical Devices - Devices integrating sensors able to detect, process and transmit physical parameters are introducing new services and usages. Few devices are available for now, but this segment constitutes a major opportunity in the healthcare market for ICT players.

� Electronic Health Records - Depending on existing policy coordination for EHR, operators might be able to capture a share of the EHR market.

N�484 - Mobile Network Outsourcing & Sharing -

2009-09-22

Today, network sharing and outsourcing are not confined to challengers in the mobile market anymore but have become widely adopted among all kinds of mobile operators. This report presents different flavours of outsourcing and sharing and what drives mobile operators to do so. The analysis also sheds light on the long term impact on the industry, including equipment vendors.

Network sharing and outsourcing have gathered significant momentum in recent years and became mainstream even for tier 1 operators in major markets. Today, network sharing and outsourcing are not confined to challengers in the mobile market anymore but have become widely adopted among all kinds of mobile operators. The question is, whether this trend will be a temporary hype, as the spin-off of incumbents' mobile operations in the early 2000s or whether the increasing popularity of infrastructure sharing and outsourcing marks the dusk of the era of integrated network operators/service providers. In the latter case, today's MNOs will ultimately evolve into ServCos, something very similar to full MVNOs; having full customer ownership and a marketing focus but no radio access network of their own. The increasing momentum of the trend towards sharing and outsourcing seems to indicate that MNOs have indeed embarked on an evolution towards an infrastructure-light business model. A number of factors will continue to push MNOs into this direction.

Network outsourcing and sharing at the core of MNO strategies

Network outsourcing and network sharing has been observed for several years already. Following the UMTS licence frenzy, infrastructure sharing became an economic necessity for a number of operators to meet 3G coverage license requirements.. For instance, the most important reference for network sharing in the EU is the deal struck between T-Mobile and O2 to share infrastructures in Germany and the UK, the countries with the most expensive licences in Europe by far. Mobile network outsourcing first appeared towards the year 2004. Mobile challengers were the first players to adopt the model while multinationals were still reluctant to opt for outsourcing. Over the last 2 to 3 years, however, a real boom in the number of infrastructure outsourcing and sharing deals can be observed worldwide. Challengers as well as tier 1 players have multiplied deals in their different worldwide markets and have broadened the scope of the agreements.

Different Flavours of network outsourcing and sharing

"Network sharing" is not necessarily the same thing as "network sharing"; there is a variety of network sharing options and scenarios. The same holds for network outsourcing, where MNOs can opt for different degrees of outsourcing their networks.

� Network outsourcing: The "lightest" form of outsourcing concerns maintenance. Although the MNO keeps full responsibility for running the network operations centre, field maintenance is delegated to the service provider. Such deals may include spare parts management. In the case of network operations and maintenance outsourcing the service provider is in charge of running the infrastructure. The MNO keeps control of network planning and build out. In a full network outsourcing setting all network related tasks are delegated to the service provider.

� Network sharing: The main distinction to be made is between passive and active infrastructure sharing. Passive infrastructure sharing refers to the case where MNOs share assets like sites, power supply or masts but no active elements of the network. If MNOs agree on active network sharing, the deal includes elements such as antennas, Node-B, backhaul capacity or even core network elements. So far, the majority of sharing agreements concerns passive infrastructure only. One important aspect is whether network sharing takes place in a brownfield or greenfield setting. Efficiency gains from sharing will be significantly higher in the latter case, where the infrastructure can be designed from the outset to meet multiple MNOs' demand instead of adjusting existing networks.

Equipment vendors' positioning

Infrastructure services have been the fastest growing segment of telecommunications markets. Network outsourcing is one of the most dynamic elements of these infrastructure services. Competition among vendors is intense as the market is of strategic importance to them. Securing deals with MNOs in an early stage of the market will open the door for further contracts across their international footprints. Multiplying the number of deals also not only allows the vendor to gain expertise but also to generate economies of scale and scope. At the same time, the number of potential clients is shrinking as more and more MNOs share their networks. Providing the additional value of network outsourcing services may therefore be vital to a vendor's long-term viability.

Market size

� Mobile network outsourcing market size: the market generated by this activity reached 3.1 billion EUR in 2008 that represented 8% of the total addressable market estimated to reach 13% by 2012.

� Mobile network sharing market size: the estimated potential savings for passive sharing and active sharing were 39 billion EUR and 49 billion respectively in 2008.

N�483 - Pay TV -

2009-09-22

Dans le contexte de crise que traverse � l'heure actuelle le secteur de la t�l�vision dans son ensemble, le segment de la t�l�vision � p�age jouit d'une situation relativement pr�serv�e.

Le chiffre d'affaires total de la t�l�vision devrait ainsi baisser de 1.3% au niveau mondial entre 2008 et 2009, alors que les revenus g�n�r�s par les offres de t�l�vision � p�age devraient quant � eux progresser de 4.7% sur la p�riode :

� G�n�rant un chiffre d'affaires de 110 milliards EUR en 2008, le march� de la t�l�vision � p�age repr�sente 41.7% des recettes totales du secteur de la t�l�vision dans le monde. Pr�sente dans pr�s de 540 millions de foyers � travers le monde, la t�l�vision � p�age fait quasiment jeu �gal avec la t�l�vision en clair (publique ou commerciale : 48% des foyers TV paient pour regarder une offre de t�l�vision enrichie).

� De plus, le secteur demeure en croissance ; plus ou moins forte selon les zones g�ographiques concern�es, que ce soit en termes d'abonn�s (+4% entre 2008 et 2009) ou en termes de revenus (+4.7% sur la m�me p�riode).

� Avec 23% des foyers TV et 25% des foyers TV � p�age, l'Europe est le second march� en volume derri�re l'Asie/Pacifique et devant l'Am�rique du Nord. Pesant 83 milliards EUR (dont 30 milliards EUR de revenus � p�age), l'Europe est �galement le deuxi�me march� en valeur derri�re l'Am�rique du Nord et devant l'Asie/Pacifique.

La poursuite de la num�risation du c�ble, le d�veloppement d'offres � p�age sur les r�seaux num�riques terrestres encore en cours de d�ploiement, ainsi que les diff�rents lancements d'offres de t�l�vision sur les r�seaux IP, expliquent principalement cette bonne tenue du march� du payant.

N�anmoins la concurrence de l'Internet, qui donne acc�s � une large palette de contenus professionnels et amateurs, et l'�volution rapide des usages de consommation (en mobilit�, en diff�r�) constituent une menace r�elle pour les acteurs traditionnels de la t�l�vision � p�age.

Ces acteurs ? �diteurs de cha�nes, op�rateurs commerciaux et/ou techniques ? sont d�sormais engag�s dans une course � la diff�renciation et � la revalorisation de leurs offres afin de renforcer leur attractivit� et esp�rer enrayer le ph�nom�ne de fuite des abonn�s auxquels certains d'entre eux commencent d'ores et d�j� � �tre confront�s.

N�482 - Le march� mondial de la t�l�vision -

2009-09-22

Le march� publicitaire global n'est �videmment pas �pargn� par la crise �conomique mondiale qui s'est d�clench�e au cours de l'�t� 2008. Cette ann�e-l�, le march� �tait encore en croissance mais se r�v�lait d�j� � bout de souffle, avec une hausse par rapport � 2007 de 0.5% seulement. Si la t�l�vision et Internet enregistraient un ralentissement de leur croissance au niveau mondial, la radio et la presse accusaient d�j� des baisses respectives de -4.3% et -5.1%.

Il est � noter que les investissements publicitaires en presse et en radio ne disposaient avant la crise que d'un faible r�servoir de croissance. En effet, l'�coute de la radio hertzienne arrive � saturation tandis que la presse assiste, impuissante, � la migration de ses lecteurs - et en parall�le de la publicit� et des petites annonces - vers Internet, dans une proportion dangereusement d�favorable pour la survie de son activit� papier. En effet, la presse est incapable de facturer son inventaire en ligne � des tarifs comparables � ceux de l'inventaire papier ; elle g�n�re des recettes publicitaires en ligne dix fois si ce n'est vingt fois inf�rieures � celles du papier?

En revanche, 2009 marque une ann�e de retournement du march� publicitaire global, probablement de l'ordre de -7.2% par rapport � 2008. A l'exception d'Internet, tous les m�dias subissent une contraction des investissements publicitaires allant de -7.5% pour la t�l�vision � -11.4% voire -11.6% pour la radio et la presse. Le Web progresse n�anmoins toujours dans ce climat morose, mais seulement de 11.4%, soit plus de 5 points de croissance en moins par rapport � 2008. Mais, tandis que le Web captait au niveau mondial moins d'investissements que la radio avant 2007, il s'est d�sormais durablement impos� comme troisi�me support m�dia, derri�re la t�l�vision et la presse.

La contraction g�n�ralis�e du march� publicitaire ne devrait pas se prolonger en 2010. L'IDATE pr�voit une stabilisation du march� et anticipe une croissance globale de 3.2% pour 2010. Le march� devrait ensuite profiter d'un certain rebond les ann�es suivantes et retrouver des taux de croissance sup�rieurs � 4% pour les ann�es 2011 et 2012. N�anmoins, le march� publicitaire global, en valeur, ne devrait pas recouvrer son niveau de 2008 avant 2012. En effet, t�l�vision, radio, presse et Internet attiraient 308.4 milliards EUR en 2008 contre 307.7 milliards EUR fin 2011. Fin 2012, le march� global en valeur devrait d�passer son niveau de 2008 � 321.9 milliards EUR. Mais ce chiffre masque en fait de profondes disparit�s entre les supports.

Le march� global devrait en effet �tre essentiellement tir� par le dynamisme d'Internet, avec un CAGR 2010-2012 de 15.5%. La bonne tenue des investissements publicitaires en TV, avec un CAGR de 3% sur la m�me p�riode, devrait �galement contribuer � la relance du march� publicitaire. Plus faible en valeur, le march� de la radio devrait enregistrer un CAGR de 1.9% entre 2010 et 2012 alors que les investissements publicitaires en presse devraient stagner en 2010 avant de b�n�ficier d'un certain effet de rattrapage se mat�rialisant par une l�g�re croissance d'environ 1% en 2011 et 2012.

N�481 - LTE: Roadmap and Forecasts -

2009-09-21

According to its latest report dedicated to Mobile Broadband, IDATE predicts that, by 2015, a total of 380 million subscribers in the USA, EU5, Scandinavia, China, Japan and South Korea will have access to mobile data through LTE networks.

With virtually all big-name operators, handset manufacturers and network vendors on board, the LTE ecosystem is healthy in the extreme - The LTE/SAE Trial Initiative (LSTI) and the Next Generation Mobile Networks (NGMN) Alliance both demonstrate a strong commitment to LTE. The former includes 23 equipment vendors and nine operators, and the latter includes 19 operators and 33 equipment vendors.

Earliest LTE deployments announced for end-2010; many more operators are set to follow - The forerunners of LTE deployment are NTT DOCOMO of Japan and Verizon Wireless of the USA. A host of other big-name MNOs is committed to deploying the technology from 2011 onwards.

Handset vendors still poised to deploy LTE, despite the financial crisis, first through laptops, then high-end phones and on to the mass market - All major handset vendors gave recorded negative YoY shipments due to the financial downturn. This will not stop LTE devices, however, and the first terminals will be aimed for use with laptops, gradually moving on to high-end phones and then to the mass market.

With advent of LTE, many MNOs could become enthusiastic about VoIP and adopt managed-VoLTE - LTE does not support circuit-switched (CS) services, but current mobile networks primarily uses CS for voice services. LTE can utilise VoIP together with an IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem) network to deliver delay-sensitive, real-time voice services. Presently, operators see VoIP as a threat to their 3G networks, but VoLTE brings benefits to both operators and users. Initial LTE deployment is likely to see CS fallback for voice services, but in the long run managed-VoLTE could be a real possibility.

By adopting LTE, operators can hope to maintain current ARPU levels and stay being a smart pipe - LTE will certainly enhance the mobile experience, but monetising it will be difficult. Consumers are accustomed to free services from the world of Internet, and many LTE services will duplicate them. The realistic aim for operators would be to maintain current ARPU levels by offering premium services, and to keep being a smart pipe by staying at the core of the ecosystem by means of controlling the network and specific activities on top of it.

LTE will likely accelerate FMC, network sharing and strategic partnerships, especially in current financial climate - One potential downfall of LTE is its coverage, especially in its early days. Together with the expanding cellular backhaul traffic, LTE is a driver for adopting Fixed-Mobile Convergence (FMC). Network sharing and partnerships can already be seen throughout the LTE ecosystem, for a variety of reasons; for greater buying power, stronger influence over standards or to gain a foothold in a new market, to name but a few. In the current financial climate, cost-saving is also a key driver.

The cost of LTE deployment for an MNO operating both GSM and UMTS/HSDPA networks amounts to 2.1 billion EUR for coverage of the urban and suburban population. This is the figure to be considered for a territory of 50 million inhabitants with the population density characteristics of a Western European country.

Innovative services and business models, such as VoLTE which can bring benefits to both operators and subscribers, need to be deployed if operators are to maximise the potential of LTE deployment, maintain ARPU levels and continue to be a smart pipe.

N�480 - Le march� mondial des Services T�l�coms -

2009-09-21

La reprise pourrait venir de pays �mergents comme la Chine qui, outre le fort potentiel de croissance �conomique, commence � montrer les signaux positifs d'une situation globale en phase de stabilisation gr�ce � des mesures de relance massives. Fin juin, l'OCDE a ainsi relev� ses pr�visions de croissance du PIB de plusieurs pays �mergents par rapport � mars dernier. En Chine, la croissance du PIB devrait �tre de +7.7% en 2009 et de +9.3% en 2010 (ces pr�visions �taient, en mars, de +6.3% et +8.5%). Au Br�sil, l'OCDE estime qu'il faut s'attendre � un recul de l'activit� �conomique de 0.8% en 2009, puis � un rebond � +4% en 2010 (pr�visions de mars : -0.3% et +3.8%). En Russie, l'activit� �conomique devrait baisser de 6.8% en 2009 d'apr�s l'OCDE avant de se redresser en 2010 � +3.7% (pr�visions de mars : +4.3% et +5.8%). En Inde, la croissance estim�e par l'OCDE ralentirait � +5.9% et acc�l�rerait de nouveau en 2010 pour atteindre +7.2% (pr�visions de mars : +4.3% et +5.8%).

L'Europe pourrait conna�tre en 2010 une ann�e de reprise molle et sem�e d'emb�ches. En effet, il n'y a pas encore de signes nets de reprise dans la zone euro, d'apr�s les derni�res perspectives �conomiques de l'OCDE � fin juin 2009, m�me si les pr�visions ont �t� �galement relev�es et apparaissent moins n�gatives. Le PIB devrait se replier de 4.8% sur cette zone cette ann�e et conna�tre une croissance nulle en 2010. Les pr�visions de mars annon�aient une baisse de 4.1% en 2009 et de 0.3% en 2010.

L'activit� �conomique aux �tats-Unis devrait se ralentir cette ann�e de 2.8%, alors qu'on pr�voyait en mars une baisse de 4%. La pr�vision de croissance pour 2010 est de 0.9%, contre 0% auparavant.

Un ralentissement au niveau mondial plus important que pr�vu

La croissance annuelle en valeur du march� mondial des services de t�l�communications s'est �lev�e � 3.7% en 2008, soit un niveau l�g�rement inf�rieur � celui anticip� (+4%) lors de notre derni�re publication en janvier 2009. Apr�s la reprise observ�e depuis 2005, l'ann�e 2008 a marqu� un ralentissement net de la croissance du march� des services de t�l�communications. � 1 404 milliards USD, la progression annuelle est estim�e � 3.7% : c'est la plus faible progression du march� mondial depuis 2002, juste apr�s l'�clatement de la bulle Internet. Les ann�es 2009 et 2010 devraient conna�tre les croissances les plus faibles des dix derni�res ann�es, � moins de 4%. Si nous continuons d'estimer que la crise financi�re, accentu�e � compter de l'automne 2008 et dont nous avons reconsid�r� les effets, est bien s�r un facteur conjoncturel aggravant, cette d�c�l�ration est avant tout le r�sultat de pressions plus structurelles pesant sur le march� mondial des t�l�communications : arriv�e � maturit� de certains march�s historiquement porteurs (march�s mobiles dans les pays avanc�s notamment), effets de substitution et/ou d�mon�tisation d'applications, pressions concurrentielles et/ou r�glementaires? Globalement, un retour sur nos pr�visions initiales montre combien nous avions concentr�, parfois exag�r�ment, les effets de la crise sur la fin de l'ann�e 2008 et le d�but de l'ann�e 2009. Mi-2009, nous estimons que la crise devrait �tre plus durable et impacter les r�sultats 2009 sur la totalit� de l'ann�e.

Les tendances par march�

Sur les march�s fixes, le d�veloppement de l'Internet et du haut d�bit compense � peine le recul de la t�l�phonie fixe, tandis que la croissance du march� des services mobiles a perdu plus de 4 points en 2008 par rapport � 2007. Avec un chiffre d'affaires total estim� � 709.2 milliards USD en 2007 et 763.0 milliards USD en 2008, les services mobiles continuent de g�n�rer la totalit� de la croissance du march� des services de t�l�communications. Leur poids dans l'ensemble des services t�l�coms ne cesse d'augmenter. Depuis 2006, les services mobiles repr�sentent plus de la moiti� du chiffre d'affaires consolid� des services t�l�coms dans le monde. En 2008, ce poids est estim� � 54% ; il pourrait approcher 57% � l'horizon 2012. La croissance du march� des services mobiles repose essentiellement sur la croissance des parcs de clients, qui ont encore progress� de 19% en 2008. Parall�lement, le revenu moyen par abonn� diminue r�guli�rement.

La t�l�phonie fixe poursuit un recul entam� en 2002, et le d�clin s'est acc�l�r� en 2008. Sur fond de crise �conomique, le march� a diminu� en valeur de pr�s de 6% au niveau mondial, sous l'effet conjugu� de la diminution du nombre de lignes fixes et d'une baisse sensible du revenu moyen par ligne.

Les services de donn�es et acc�s Internet jouent un r�le de plus en plus important dans la croissance mondiale des services t�l�coms. En 2008, ils ont g�n�r� plus de 19 milliards USD de chiffre d'affaires suppl�mentaire par rapport � 2007, pour un total de 264 milliards USD. Leur poids dans l'ensemble des services t�l�coms augmente r�guli�rement. Il est pass� de moins de 15% en 2001 � pr�s de 19% en 2008. Leur contribution � la croissance compense toutefois � peine la perte enregistr�e dans les services de t�l�phonie fixe.

Sur le march� des services de transmissions de donn�es aux entreprises, nous avions pr�vu initialement une d�gradation plus forte (croissance l�g�rement r��valu�e en Europe de l'Ouest comme en Am�rique du Nord). Le segment Internet, et plus pr�cis�ment celui du haut d�bit, conna�t un remarquable d�veloppement. Le nombre d'abonn�s haut d�bit a n�anmoins �t� revu � la baisse, � 401 millions fin 2008 au lieu des 415 millions anticip�s dans notre publication pr�c�dente, traduisant un fl�chissement de la croissance de la base d'abonn�s haut d�bit.

N�479 - The World Telecom Equipment Market -

2009-09-17

The worldwide investment spending by telecom operators (except cable operators) continued to increase in 2008 by +9.4%, reaching �175 Billion, and at a faster pace compared to 2007 (+1.4%). Fixed capital expenditures (CAPEX) grew in 2008 by 2.9%, the average of fixed network investments growth slow down compared to 2007 (+4.7%). Mobile CAPEX levels were higher in 2008 as mobile investments grew by 15.4 %, and growing faster than the year before (+9.9%).

Guidance for 2009: Slow CAPEX Evolution Predicted: Overall, we expect market growth rate to be constricted by the grim economic climate in 2009. Still, major investments from Asian service providers, such as China Mobile or Bharti in India will keep investing significantly to increase coverage and capacity in underserved areas. Also, Chinese service providers are expected to invest about $3 billion for their 3G networks in 2009. In the Philippines, Digitel, said Monday, it plans to spend around $350 million in 2009, compared to $300 million in 20085, to upgrade and expand its network.

In the Middle East & Africa region, we expect Turkish mobile service providers to boost the CAPEX growth in 2009 as Turkcell's CEO Sureyya Ciliv�s announced that their "total CAPEX investment is going to double from year 2008 to 2009�. MTN, South Africa-based mobile group claimed it grew its subscriber base by 48% in 2008 and seems optimistic about the subscriber addition they will make in 2009. Therefore, this major player in the African market will keep rising its CAPEX in 2009. Du from UAE, another main service provider in the Middle East & African region, is also expected to allocate a significant amount of its revenues to its CAPEX in 2009 and says it would spend up to �390 million by the end of the year.

In other regions, mobile service providers already announced that they would be cautious in 2009 and delay major spending. It is the case in the US, for instance, where AT&T announced that their "network upgrades are slated to begin later this year, with completion expected in 2011".

In Western Europe, Deutsche Telekom CAPEX was about �100 million to increase broadband coverage. The German operator initially wanted to allocate about the same amount for its network expansion in 2009 but might just review its plan and reduce significantly this figure. Elsewhere, Portuguese service provider, Portugal Telecom, decided to increase its optical fibber CAPEX by 10% in 2009.

In Latin America, service providers might also slow down their investments in 2009, but they will probably rise again in 2010, especially if Chile and Peru governments award 3G licenses towards the end of the year.

N�478 - RFID & Internet of Things -

2009-09-16

Montpellier, France � September, 16 2009 � RFID has gone beyond its initial positioning as an ID access solution, to provide advanced applications like supply chain management, and will progressively become mainstream. While still suffering from some major technical imperfections (especially for read rates in metal and/or water environments), the major issues that need to be addressed before greater deployment of RFID are related to business models. RFID has proven to have higher value in environments that can take full advantage of this technology: high levels of automation (no line of sight), large volume simultaneous reading, real-time modification or management of objects with complex characteristics. But achieving ROI with RFID is still challenging, as set-up costs are still prohibitive with physical tags and integration processes, and as benefits are not sufficiently shared along the entire value chain.

The Internet of things, in which any objects and items could connect to the Internet to retrieve information to enhance its intrinsic value, is still years away. Using RFID to tag an object with a virtual label remains the best option (compared with barcodes) for easy-touse solutions that are combined with NFC devices. Beyond tags, the Internet of things requires a completely new infrastructure to handle the large databases that have to be deployed to allow for open loop solutions. In the medium term, as with similar initiatives in the past, most IOT solutions will remain, in fact, internal B2B projects.

The market for RFID and IOT is mainly benefiting hardware providers (tags and reader manufacturers). However, the RFID market will really become significant and reach another order of magnitude if tags become commodities. Major long term opportunities will first concern IT services and then IOT services based on platforms and middleware that enable the numerous information exchanges between all the vertical players involved. Key players should emerge as aggregators around services similar to those of the web.

Despite attempts to develop a set of shared technologies, RFID and IOT are vertically-driven markets. Therefore the pace of development will vary significantly between all the vertical markets, depending on their technical and business maturity regarding the adoption of RFID. Textile and cultural goods industries have made most progress in this area, while the food industry is the most promising in terms of volume but has yet to find a business model to reach the item-level. The global downturn has clearly some impacts for RFID and IOT deployments, as these technologies are dependant on the underlying vertical markets, some of which, like the automobile industry, have been heavily impacted.

N�477 - M2M : Le march� Machine-to-Machine toujours en croissance malgr� la crise -

2009-09-16

Montpellier, France ? 16 septembre 2009 ? ?Le march� M2M connait une croissance soutenu en d�pit de la crise actuelle? commente Samuel Ropert, Chef de projet du rapport. En 2009, le march� M2M cellulaire devrait repr�senter 38 millions de modules au niveau mondial pour un total de 11.2 milliards EUR. Cependant, on s'attend en 2009 � ce que la croissance soit moins importante qu'attendue, de moins de 10% en valeur et de 25% en volume, en raison des difficult�s rencontr�es par les principaux march�s verticaux �galement les plus touch�s par la crise �conomique (automobile, �quipements industriels). La situation est identique pour le M2M satellite, qui repr�sente 1.03 milliard EUR en 2009, bien que les march� cibles ne soient pas les m�mes.

Tous les acteurs du domaine esp�rent que de nouveaux segment de march�s permettront au M2M d'atteindre un nouveau palier, comme l'indique nos pr�visions qui �valuent le march� M2M cellulaire � 27.3 milliards EUR et le M2M satellite � 2.1 milliards EUR en 2013. Les volumes attendus sont en effet tr�s importants dans la mesure o� ils d�pendent d'�quipements de masse (voitures, compteurs, �lectronique grand public, ?) qui devraient int�grer un taux de 6.5% de cartes SIM en Europe d�s 2013. La plupart de ces nouvelles solutions n'ont pas encore de business model bien d�fini et d�pendent de l'�volution des cadres r�glementaires des diff�rents march�s verticaux concern�s, qui pourraient d'ailleurs �tre difficile � mettre en place sans l'aide du M2M. Cela explique �galement le succ�s du M2M en Europe (la r�glementation sectorielle �tant plus d�velopp�e en Europe) alors que les solutions bas�es sur le satellite dominent aux Etats-Unis (notamment pour la s�curit� du territoire).

Alors qu'initialement les op�rateurs T�l�coms �taient peu enclins � intervenir directement sur ces march�s, la plupart d'entre eux ont d�sormais engag� la bataille afin de capter une part significative de ce march� et de se distinguer � travers des initiatives techniques innovantes (IPv6, cartes SIM durcies ou embarqu�es, portails?) ou certaines applications professionnelles (one-stop shopping international, leasing?). Le M2M peut leur offrir des opportunit�s tr�s int�ressantes, m�me avec un ARPU faible, gr�ce � des projets repr�sentants des milliers de cartes SIM et permettant l'am�lioration de la valeur clients et la r�duction du taux de churn. La Connectivit� � elle seule devrait repr�senter 4.3 milliards EUR en 2013 et plus de 4% des revenus de donn�es mobiles pour les op�rateurs t�l�coms europ�ens. Les MVNO sont �galement en train de s'engager pour favoriser le d�veloppement du march� en se positionnant comme des fournisseurs de solutions, alors que les fournisseurs de modules ont eux du mal � ce faire une place sur un march� pour lequel les prix unitaires baissent rapidement.

N�476 - March� mondial du FTTx -

2009-08-27

Montpellier, France, 27 ao�t 2009 ? IDATE annonce la publication d?un rapport faisant le point sur les principales tendances du march� � partir de ses derni�res analyses du march� mondial du FTTx.

Les d�ploiements FTTx progressent toujours :
A fin 2008, le march� FTTx global - qui inclut les architectures FTTH/B, VDSL, FTTLA et FTTX+LAN - repr�sentait un total de 48 millions d?abonn�s. FTTH et FTTB restent les architectures dominantes en raccordant plus de 61% des abonn�s connect�s via la fibre. Ces architectures, et plus particuli�rement celles bas�es sur le FFTB, sont en effet les plus �conomiques et les mieux adapt�es pour permettre aux op�rateurs d'augmenter leur bande passante dans la plupart des pays et notamment en Asie (zones particuli�rement denses) mais �galement dans de nombreux pays �mergeants.

FTTH/B, l'architecture dominante :
Le march� FTTH/B global connait une croissance rapide. A fin 2008, on comptait plus de 8 millions de nouveaux abonn�s (+39% sur les 12 derniers mois) qui ont permis de d�passer les 29 millions d?abonn�s FTTH/B au niveau mondial.

L'Asie-Pacifique toujours en t�te du march� FTTH/B, avec une acc�l�ration de la croissance en nombre d'abonn�s due � la Chine :
Ce n?est pas une surprise de voir la zone Asie-Pacifique dominer le march� FTTH/B et rester le principal contributeur avec pr�s de 5 millions de nouveaux abonn�s en une seule ann�e. La concentration la plus importante d?abonn�s FTTH/B est localis�e en Asie ? et plus particuli�rement au Japon et en Cor�e du Sud - avec pr�s des quatre cinqui�me de l?ensemble des abonn�s FTTH/B � fin 2008. Le nombre d'abonn�s FTTH/B en Asie-Pacifique est ainsi pass� de 17.9 millions � plus de 22.7 millions entre d�cembre 2007 et d�cembre 2008.

Les Etats-Unis anime le march� nord am�ricain :
Avec 5 millions d'abonn�s � fin 2008, le march� continu de progresser aux Etats-Unis, et particuli�rement en ce qui concerne le march� FTTH/B pour lequel on comptait 1.9 million de nouveaux abonn�s en une seule ann�e. Le march� US, qui se classe ainsi en troisi�me position derri�re le Japon et la Cor�e du Sud, totalise 16% des abonn�s au niveau mondial. Mais avec un taux de progression de 90% en 2008, les Etats-Unis s?imposent comme le march� FTTH/B � la plus forte croissance.

Le march� Europ�en prend de la vitesse :
Bien que loin derri�re les march�s asiatique et nord am�ricain, le march� d'Europe de l'Ouest semble en pleine acc�l�ration. A fin 2008, il pesait 5% du march� FTTH/B mondial avec plus de 1.5 million d'abonn�s, � rapporter au million d'abonn�s de fin 2007 (une croissance de +60% en un an). Cependant, le march� est caract�ris� par de fortes disparit�s puisque 6 pays totalisent � eux seuls 81% de la base d?abonn�s de la zone : Su�de, Italie, Norv�ge, France, Danemark et Pays-Bas. Pour l'Europe de l'Est, c'est la Russie qui fait figure de march� en fort d�veloppement avec 630 000 abonn�s FTTB et 6.3 millions de foyers raccordables � fin 2008.

Evolution des �quipementiers FTTx :
La base install�e de ports FTTx est estim�e au niveau mondial � 83.3 millions � fin 2008. A fin juillet 2009, nous pouvons pr�senter une premi�re �valuation des parts de march� globales � mi 2009 : dans un march� fragment�, le top six mondial est d�sormais domin� par des �quipementiers originaires d'Asie, ZTE prenant le leadership suivi par Huawei en seconde position et par le constructeur japonais Mitsubishi � la troisi�me place.

Pr�visions de croissance du march� FTTx en 2014 :
L'acc�s tr�s haut d�bit (FTTH/B et VDSL5 ensemble) devrait conna�tre une croissance continue durant les prochaines ann�es, pour atteindre les 140 millions d'abonn�s au niveau mondial en 2014. Bien sur, les taux de progression resteront tr�s diff�rents en fonction des pays dans la mesure o� chaque march� national restera marqu� par ses propres sp�cificit�s et par les dynamiques des acteurs en pr�sence.

Le rapport complet est disponible librement sur simple demande aupr�s de l?IDATE

N�475 - L'IDATE signe un partenariat strat�gique avec Centris, un cabinet nord-am�ricain -

2009-07-10

Le partenariat strat�gique sign� avec Centris, un cabinet nord-am�ricain d'intelligence marketing, permettra � l'IDATE de d�velopper ses activit�s d'�tudes et de distribuer ses rapports aux Etats-Unis.

Montpellier, France - 10 juillet 2009 : L'IDATE annonce la mise en place d'un partenariat strat�gique avec Centris, qui permettra � ses �quipes de renforcer leur pr�sence aupr�s de clients-cl�s. Avec l'appui op�rationnel des �quipes de Centris, l'IDATE va pouvoir �tendre la distribution de son catalogue d'�tudes et de bases de donn�es.
L'IDATE int�grera dans ce catalogue les rapports r�alis�s par les analystes de Centris afin de fournir � ses clients des r�sultats s'appuyant sur un outil original et puissant d'analyse de la demande des consommateurs nord-am�ricains en termes de voix, vid�o et donn�es.

L'IDATE s'est impos� comme l'un des tout premiers centres d'�tudes et de conseil en Europe, dont la mission est d'accompagner les d�cisions strat�giques de ses clients sur les secteurs T�l�coms, Internet et M�dias. Centris est un cabinet d'intelligence marketing qui s'est sp�cialis� dans l?analyse de la demande et des usages des technologies de l'information et de loisirs.

"Ce partenariat permet � l'IDATE de disposer d'un ancrage renforc� aux Etats-Unis", d�clare Yves Gassot, Directeur G�n�ral, "qui donnera une occasion de rapprocher nos �quipes de consultants d'acteurs-cl�s des T�l�coms, de l'Internet des M�dias que nous suivons depuis tr�s longtemps."

"Cette nouvelle �tape dans nos relations avec l'IDATE repr�sente une initiative strat�gique pour Centris. Cette collaboration nous permettra de proposer � nos clients U.S. une vision globale des march�s dans les domaines de la voix, de la vid�o et des donn�es", ajoute William J. Beaumont, Pr�sident de Centris. "Dans un premier temps, nous assurerons la commercialisation des rapports de l'IDATE en les int�grant dans nos offres group�es, augmentant ainsi la valeur que repr�sente pour nos clients l'acc�s � un ensemble d'analyses strat�giques et de donn�es-cl�s."

Pour plus d'information sur les rapports disponibles et les comp�tences des �quipes de l'IDATE,
rendez-vous sur www.idate-research.com ou contactez Isabel Jimenez, i.jimenez@idate.org

Les Etats-Unis � l'honneur du DigiWorld Summit 2009 - 18-19 nov. 2009 (France)
Cette ann�e, les Etats-Unis sont le pays invit� de la conf�rence annuelle de l'IDATE, dont le
th�me-cl� est "Open Innovation".
> Programme complet sur www.digiworldsummit.com

A propos de Centris
Centris fait parti du AUS Group, l'une des organisations d?�tudes leaders aux Etats-Unis. Centris est un cabinet d'�tudes disposant d'une expertise lui permettant d?accompagner ses clients dans leurs analyses des march�s voix, vid�o et donn�es aux Etats-Unis. Cr�� en 1997, � partir d'un programme d'enqu�te omnibus aupr�s des consommateurs de produits et services de communication, Centris propose aujourd'hui un ensemble complet d'�tudes destin�es aux groupes m�dias, aux op�rateurs de r�seaux et aux fournisseurs d'�quipements.
Plus d'information sur www.centris.com

A propos de l'IDATE
Depuis 1977, l'IDATE s'est impos� comme l'un des premiers centres d'�tudes et de conseil en Europe dont la mission est d'accompagner les d�cisions strat�giques de ses clients sur les secteurs T�l�coms, Internet, M�dias,
� travers deux domaines d'activit�s : Consulting & Research (un conseil ind�pendant et la publication d'un catalogue d'�tudes de march�), DigiWorld Programme (un programme annuel support�es par ses membres : DigiWorld Club, DigiWorld Summit, DigiWorld Yearbook, Communications & Strategies,...).

N�474 - VoIP sur Mobile -

2009-07-03

L?essor tr�s rapide de l?usage des donn�es mobiles, favoris� par la disponibilit� croissante de r�seaux 3G, par l?augmentation des vitesses de t�l�chargement et par la disponibilit� de terminaux de type smartphones mieux adapt�s comme l?iPhone, ont �t� autant d'�l�ments favorables dans un contexte de saturation des march�s des services mobiles dans les pays avanc�s d'Europe et d?Am�rique du Nord. De nombreuses applications populaires de l?Internet fixe (moteurs de recherche, messagerie instantan�e, jeux ?) ont �t� transpos�es avec succ�s � l?environnement mobile, favorisant le d�veloppement usages. Mais c?est la voix sur IP (VoIP) qui sans conteste est au c?ur du plus grand nombre d?attentes et interrogations tout en �tant l?objet des sp�culations les plus folles.

La note compl�te (t�l�chargeable gratuitement sur votre droite) se propose d?analyser cette question br�lante. Notre sentiment est que l?heure de la VoIP sur mobile n?a pas encore sonn�, et ce pour un certain nombre de raisons.

1. VoIP mobile et fixe sont de faux jumeaux.
M�me si l'on peut tirer des le�ons int�ressantes sur les conditions de succ�s de la VoIP fixe, en particulier les facteurs d?acceptation par le march� (exp�rience utilisateur simple et universelle, qualit� de service acceptable, prix attractif), il reste que les r�seaux fixes et mobiles ont des caract�ristiques intrins�ques tr�s diff�rentes. Les contraintes de l?environnement mobile en termes de bande passante et de capacit� imposent de r�els d�fis d�s lors qu?il s?agit de mettre � disposition � grande �chelle la bande passante, la latence et la qualit� de service n�c�ssaires � la fourniture de services aussi sensibles que la VoIP mobile.

2. La VoIP mobile en est encore � ses balbutiements.
Les solutions de VoIP mobile actuellement propos�es pr�sentent de r�elles contraintes pour les utilisateurs en termes de facilit� d?usage et de disponibilit� du service. En effet, le service ne fonctionne que dans un environnement 3G semi-nomade ou dans des zones couvertes en Wifi en l?absence de m�canismes de handover 3G � 2G, 3G � Wifi ou entre op�rateurs. Ces solutions provoquent �galement une utilisation plus intensive des batteries des t�l�phones mobiles et ne fonctionnent pas nativement sur de nombreux terminaux.

3. Les offres actuelles de VoIP mobile : une solution � la recherche d?un probl�me ?
Les r�seaux 3G ont �t� � l?origine con�us pour fournir des services de transport de donn�es sur une base "best effort" ainsi que des services voix bas�s sur l?approche �prouv�e de circuits commut�s (d�riv�e du GSM). Introduire la VoIP mobile dans cet environnement sous contrainte impose : i) de surmonter des probl�mes techniques et de qualit� de service que les services voix sur mobile classiques ont �vit� par construction, ii) de bouleverser les �quilibres complexes mis en place par les op�rateurs pour assurer la fourniture de services au plus grand nombre et avec un niveau de qualit� de service suffisant, iii) alors que dans le m�me temps les b�n�fices tant pour les utilisateurs que pour les op�rateurs n?apparaissent pas clairement.

4. La VoIP mobile devrait se g�n�raliser lorsque trois conditions seront r�unies : (i) l?existence de solutions manag�es de VoIP optimis�es et stables, (ii) la g�n�ralisation des acc�s HSPA et (iii) le d�veloppement des r�seaux LTE en zone dense.
La tendance de long terme d?une unification des communications voix et �lectroniques (email, messagerie instantan�e, r�seaux sociaux?) capitalisant sur les fonctionnalit�s de pr�sence et de localisation produira de vrais b�n�fices utilisateurs mais aussi pour les op�rateurs. Cela sera rendu possible par l?�mergence de solutions manag�es de VoIP qui permettront, gr�ce � la priorisation des paquets voix (i) d?adresser les d�faillances des offres actuelles de VoIP Mobile, (ii) d?optimiser l?utilisation des ressources r�seau afin de ne pas faire peser de contraintes sur l?essor d?autres services de donn�es mobiles et (iii) de capitaliser sur les plus hauts d�bits rendus possibles par la g�n�ralisation du HSPA et l?essor du LTE en zone dense.

N�473 - New challenges for the Video Game Industry - 11 september 2006

2009-03-31

This issue of Communications & Strategies is above all an issue devoted to one sector, namely video games, and correlates to some degree to previous issues dedicated to the media (no. 62 & 71), to Web 2.0 (no. 65) and to the payment systems industry (no. 66).

The choice of video games as the central theme is justified by the growth of its various markets. It is no longer a marginal sector in terms of size, nor limited to only a niche population. It is expanding in several directions which are both enhancing it and intertwining it with a number of ICT markets (digital entertainment, Web services, mobile services, e-training, �) � and so helping to further spur the momentum.

Examining the video game sector and its underlying trends also provides a good cross-section of a great many of the economic issues that we regularly explore in our dossiers, whether analysis of two-sided markets (no. 61), the impact of bundling (no. 63) or vertical integration strategies (no. 68).

Anticipating the central theme of our next issue, I will add to that the topic of open innovation. As with previous dossiers, time and space restrictions prevented us from being able to address every aspect of this sector, so we will no doubt revisit this topic in future articles or future dossiers. In the meantime, I should like to extend my heartfelt thanks to our deputy
editors, Edward CASTRONOVA and Laurent MICHAUD, for their work on this issue.

It only remains for me to wish you happy reading, and to remind you that any comments and suggestions regarding this or future issues are most welcome, and should be addressed to our editorial coordinator.

Please find additional informations about this issue of C&S by following this link.

N�472 - Trois sc�narios pour la TV en 2020 -

2009-06-18

L'IDATE vient de publier une �tude sur l'avenir de la T�l�vision, en conduisant une analyse prospective prenant pour point de d�part un diagnostic approfondi de l?industrie en 2008 et 2009 et combinant une estimation des tendances macro-�conomiques, pour aboutir � l'�laboration de sc�narios d'�volution et leur chiffrage pour l'Europe et les Etats-Unis.

"Ce rapport, qui fait suite � une pr�c�dente �tude prospective r�alis�e il y a maintenant plus de quatre ans et � de nombreux travaux men�s depuis sur les nouvelles formes de t�l�vision (TV mobile, Pay TV, Internet TV, TVHD, TV 3D, ...)", commente Gilles Fontaine, Directeur Adjoint de l'IDATE, "permet de faire la part entre les effets de la crise actuelle qui fragilise les groupes m�dias et la lame de fond qui est en train de modifier durablement l'industrie de la t�l�vision dans son ensemble."

En effet, les conditions de la migration de l'industrie de l'audiovisuel vers l'Internet sont aujourd'hui r�unies :
- des consommateurs habitu�s � la consommation d'image sur le Web ;
- des solutions techniques qui donnent acc�s sur le t�l�viseur aux contenus Internet ;
- un acc�s � l'Internet ouvert depuis le t�l�phone mobile ;
- des contenus premium disponibles sur Internet ;
- une qualit� de service qui s'am�liore pour la vid�o sur Internet ;
- la conjonction des strat�gies de nouveaux acteurs issus de secteurs connexes de l'audiovisuel.

Cette migration sera progressive, mais elle aura des impacts fondamentaux sur l'industrie :
- le mod�le d'exploitation exclusive ne sera plus la r�gle ;
- certains consommateurs abandonneront les r�seaux manag�s traditionnels ;
- un mouvement de mondialisation s'amorcera au b�n�fice des grands d�tenteurs de droits.

A la diff�rence des industries de la musique et de la presse, l'industrie de l'audiovisuel prend fortement position sur le Web. Elle peut donc y occuper une place centrale pour l'exploitation des services vid�o. La strat�gie offensive qu'elle poursuit, prometteuse pour le futur, ne la met pas � l'abri de la destruction de valeur. Celle-ci a en effet des raisons structurelles : forte intensit� concurrentielle sur le march� publicitaire Internet, non-contr�le de la circulation des programmes.

La crise 2009-2010, loin d'�tre uniquement conjoncturelle, marque l'entr�e dans une d�cennie de restructuration de l'industrie de l'audiovisuel, marqu�e dans un premier temps par une baisse globale des ressources du secteur avant que des usages d�multipli�s permettent une nouvelle croissance. La d�cennie 2010-2020 sera aussi celle du contr�le des co�ts, par l'industrialisation d'une production audiovisuelle d�finitivement coup�e de son mod�le historique, le cin�ma.

L'industrie europ�enne est particuli�rement menac�e par la migration vers l'Internet. Une r�vision de la strat�gie r�glementaire dans le domaine de l'audiovisuel semble donc n�cessaire et urgente : elle implique notamment la cr�ation de groupes int�gr�s paneurop�ens.

Dans ce contexte, le rapport de l'IDATE pr�sente trois sc�narios contrast�s :

- Le sc�nario � My Video Web�, sc�nario de r�f�rence retenu comme le plus probable par l'IDATE. Il s'inscrit dans un contexte o� la crise acc�l�re la mutation Internet, syst�me nerveux de la vie sociale. Il se caract�rise par un nomadisme g�n�ralis�, le d�veloppement du stockage en ligne, de la connexion universelle et gratuite, et par une pr�dominance des r�seaux sociaux.

- Le sc�nario � Broadcast as Usual � s'inscrit dans un contexte o� la crise �conomique perdure et pour lequel le d�ploiement du tr�s haut d�bit fixe et mobile reste limit�, avec un Internet qui ne mute pas vers un outil de divertissement. C'est un sc�nario qui reste assez favorable aux groupes m�dias dans la mesure o� la destruction de valeur par Internet resterait limit�e.

- Le sc�nario � Community TV � d�crit un contexte d'instabilit� sociale et de contr�le des Etats sur le r�seau, se combinant avec une m�fiance des citoyens vis-�-vis des risques sanitaires et du contr�le de la vie priv�e et une mont�e des communautarismes. Ce sc�nario est le moins favorable au d�veloppement d'un march� qui restera fragment� et peu solvable.

N�471 - Femtocells - 15 May 2006

2009-06-11

The global Femtocell market will generate � 875 million in revenues for Service Providers by 2013 for 9.7 million shipped units. The market is not as promising as expected since the added value a Femtocell solution offers is too low in the eyes of endusers.

IDATE is publishing the second edition of its Femtocells Report. This report provides an overview of the latest trends in the emerging Femtocell market and examines how mass market deployment levels will be reached and what hurdles must first be overcome. It provides an analysis on roll out strategies, Femtocell standards, network connection methods and the strategies to reduce operator costs and increase revenues.

�Our market forecasts are quite cautious�, says Mathieu Limousi, Project Leader of the report, �because Femtocell mass market adoption conditions are not fulfilled yet and we also have to take into account big regional discrepancies�

� In total, integrated and mobile service providers will spend over � 734 million by 2013 for femtocell equipment. Integrated service providers are best positioned to offer Femtocell solutions as in addition to extending mobile network to the household, Femtocell is a fully convergent solution.

� The most dynamic market will be the USA as it will account for about 50 % of CPE shipped at the end of 2013. Asian operators will hold 26% of the market while the 23% remaining will be shared among some of the Western Europe service providers.

� Regional disparities are due to different expectations associated with Femtocell. North American users see strong value in the indoor coverage capabilities of the solution. But consumers in Asia and Western Europe expect more than just a better quality network: for them, the added value of Femtocell is in its convergence features.

Femtocells World Summit 2009 - June 23rd - June 25th, 2009 London, UK
IDATE is Analyst Partner of this major event and will take part in
Track A, June 24 at 11:30 on the topic of �Femtocells: Market Drivers,
Geographical Discrepancies, Consumer Demand� � presentation by IDATE
Femtocells expert, Mathieu Limousi.

Conference details

N�470 - Practices - 12 june 2006

2009-06-22

Plus d'information sur les comp�tences des �quipes de l'IDATE en cliquant sur ce lien

N�469 - FTTx: global operator rankings - 6 March 2006

2009-06-08

On the whole, the global FTTH/B market continues to make strides. Growth in 2008 was steady, with close to 8 million new subscribers (+37% over the past 12 months) bringing the number of FTTH/B subscribers around the world to just over 29 million at the end of 2008, of which close to 80% are located in Asia.

Asia is the continent with the largest number of FTTH/B subscribers (22.7 million). Among the ten countries with the biggest FTTH/B subscriber bases, five are in Asia (Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China), one is in North America and four are in Europe.

Two Asian countries in particular, namely Japan and South Korea, stand out and are rivalled only by the US in terms of users: they are the only three nations with over a million FTTH/B subscribers.

Thanks to its large population, the United States is expected to eventually catch up, especially if we include VDSL systems. According to IDATE, FTTH/B subscribers in the United States will outnumber South Korean subscribers by 2011 � although Asia will remain the biggest market, in large part due to a huge upswing in users in China around 2012.

In terms of operators, the gap between Asia and the rest of the world is still considerable: among the globe�s ten largest FTTx operators, six are Asian, two are North American and two are European.

Only six operators in the world have a base of more than a million subscribers, four of which are Asian operators and the other two are based in North America. NTT is the largest FTTx operator with a base of 10.6 million subscribers or a 73% share of the Japanese market and a close to 37% share of the global market.

� 3rd Assises du Tr�s Haut D�bit � 9 June, Paris (Senate)
For the third consecutive year, IDATE is organising a one-day conference devoted ultra-fast broadband, in partnership with Aromates. This year�s topic is: �Towards a digital New Deal�.

� FTTx Summit 2009 � 10 June, Munich, Germany
Renewing its partnership with this important event, IDATE will take part in Session 2 at 2 p.m. on the topic of �Market Analysis � Developing accurate cost models for FTTH�.

N�469 - A propos de l'IDATE - 9 March 2006

2009-06-22

Plus d'information au sujet de l'IDATE en cliquant sur ce lien

N�468 - Les enjeux du monde num�rique - 23 December 2005

2009-05-12

A round-up of the state and challenges of the digital world

IDATE is releasing the 9th edition of its DigiWorld Yearbook which provides readers with a single volume round-up of outstanding analysis of the globe�s telecom, Internet and media markets from IDATE specialists from the past year, along with supporting data and a look at innovations to watch in the months ahead�

The DigiWorld Yearbook is published in English, French and Spanish (in collaboration with the Enter foundation). Launch ceremonies with special guests will be held in Paris (on 12 May, with a talk from Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet), in London (on 11 June, with Michel Combes, CEO Vodafone Europe), in Brussels (on 23 June with Fabio Colasanti, Director-General InfoSoc EC) and in Madrid�

The 2009 edition reveals that the combined growth rate for DigiWorld sectors last year dropped to 4.8%, while generating 2,740 billion EUR and representing 6.5% of global GDP in 2008. According to the Yearbook�s coordinator, Didier Pouillot, this decline is only partially due to the economic downturn, and can be attributed chiefly to the maturity of certain markets.

The report nevertheless illustrates the intensity of the changes at work in the different sectors, underscoring the growing weight in the equation of Asia and emerging economies, and by exploring the main issues and trends that emerged in 2008. It provides the latest IDATE data on mobile markets, broadband market growth, optical fibre network rollouts and video game markets. Also included are analyses from the Institute�s experts on topics such as the challenges being faced by TV networks as online video continues to gain momentum�

In his introduction, IDATE CEO, Yves Gassot, comments on Apple�s ongoing influence, having followed the successful launch of the iPhone in 2007 with its app store model which has taken hold as the point of reference for all of the mobile Internet�s existing and potential players. He points to social networking and the extraordinary user base acquired by players such as Facebook and Twitter which, despite their ongoing struggle to monetise their audience, are steadily becoming the decisive drivers of service innovations and shapers of new communication habits. He introduces the notions of open innovation and open platform as embodiments of the paradigm shift: no digital industry leader can afford to ignore the potential for innovation and value creation that the other players in the digital ecosystem represent, including the customers themselves. The key now is to know at what point to open their platforms up, and in what way�

In his foreword, IDATE President, Francis Lorentz sees in this crisis, which this time did not start inside the DigiWorld, as a real threat if public authorities do not take account of the central influence of these sectors in their recovery plans, but also as an opportunity to take advantage of a new innovation cycle that is opening up with the mobile Internet and cloud computing.

Order the 2009 Edition

N�466 - Publicit� en ligne - 27 April 2009

2009-04-27

Dans sa derni�re �tude consacr�e au march� de la publicit� en ligne, l?IDATE confirme que le march� mondial de la publicit� en ligne a atteint 30.6 milliards EUR nets en 2008 et s'�l�vera � 58.8 milliards EUR en 2012, soit 15% des d�penses m�dias totales des annonceurs

� La crise �conomique va globalement �tre b�n�fique au Web �, d�clare Sophie Girieud, Chef de projet de l'�tude, � En effet, la croissance du march� de la publicit� en ligne se nourrie des transferts de budget des annonceurs des m�dias traditionnels et du hors m�dia offline (national mais aussi local) vers le Web, et plus sp�cifiquement vers le marketing direct en ligne. Ce ph�nom�ne de report budg�taire devrait �tre acc�l�r� par la crise �conomique qui incite les annonceurs � arbitrer en faveur du Web. En 2009, Internet devrait ainsi �tre le support publicitaire en plus forte croissance, m�me si celle-ci devrait ralentir � (selon l'IDATE : 12.1% en 2009 contre 20.7% en 2008 � l'�chelle mondiale).

� Les revenus de la publicit� sur Internet progresseront � un rythme annuel moyen de 19.6% entre 2009 et 2012, soutenus � la fois par la progression continue des usages et du nombre d'internautes, et �galement par les transferts de budget des annonceurs des m�dias traditionnels et du hors m�dia offline (national mais aussi local) vers le Web, et plus sp�cifiquement vers le marketing direct en ligne (liens sponsoris�s notamment). Ce ph�nom�ne de report budg�taire devrait �tre acc�l�r� par la crise �conomique qui incite les annonceurs � arbitrer en faveur du Web.

� Internet constitue avant tout un support de communication hors m�dia : le search marketing repr�sentera ainsi la moiti� du march� mondial de la publicit� en ligne en 2009, soit 17.2 milliard EUR. Son poids atteindra 53% en 2012 pour des revenus estim�s � 31.3 milliards EUR.

� Les revenus mondiaux nets du display progresseront de 12.3 milliards EUR en 2009 � 21.2 milliards EUR en 2012. Sa part de march� � l'�chelle mondiale se maintiendra aux alentours de 36% gr�ce au d�veloppement des formats rich m�dia et vid�o. La publicit� vid�o devrait en effet devenir le format le plus dynamique du march� de la publicit� en ligne dans les prochaines ann�es.

N�465 - FTTx Forecasts - 6 April 2009

2009-04-06

L?IDATE confirme que le march� du tr�s haut d�bit devrait conna�tre une croissance importante malgr� le contexte g�n�ral de crise auquel doivent faire face la plupart des �conomies. On devrait ainsi atteindre les 140 millions d'abonn�s Tr�s Haut D�bit dans le monde d�s 2014. Les technologies FTTH/B domineront largement, avec quelque 114,4 millions d'abonn�s contre environ 25,6 millions d'abonn�s VDSL.

En effet Plusieurs indicateurs confirment l'int�r�t de d�ployer des infrastructures Tr�s Haut D�bit, notamment ceux relatifs au march� de l'�lectronique grand public; de plus en plus connect�e. L'ensemble des �quipements multim�dias connaissent encore un succ�s notable, en partie li� � la baisse des tarifs qui devrait perdurer dans les prochaines ann�es ; leur multiplication continuera � g�n�rer des besoins grandissants en bande passante.

Dans la lign�e des ann�es pr�c�dentes, 2008 a vu se concr�tiser de multiples projets de d�ploiements d'infrastructures FTTH/B. Dans certains pays, comme en Europe de l'Est, il s'agit de tous nouveaux projets, lanc�s par des op�rateurs d'envergure nationale voire internationale (Vimpelcom par exemple en Russie et en Ukraine). Bien que le haut d�bit y soit encore souvent immature, on peut imaginer que le passage au FTTH/B se fera encore plus rapidement, justement parce que les op�rateurs pourraient anticiper sur les besoins et d�ployer directement des infrastructures plus p�rennes et performantes.

Parall�lement, en 2008, les d�ploiements ont parfois �t� moins rapides que pr�vus pour certains op�rateurs, en France par exemple, m�me si aucun ne remet en question sa strat�gie � long terme.

N�anmoins, de notre point de vue, ces ralentissements auront un impact sur la croissance du nombre d'abonn�s et pourraient g�n�rer, en fonction de la zone consid�r�e, un retard d'environ un an sur les pr�visions pr�c�dentes.
�Finalement �, d�clare Roland Montagne, Responsable de la Practice Broadband/FTTx, � le d�veloppement du FTTx dispose d?un fort potentiel, avec un pic de croissance qui devrait se situer entre 2010 et 2012 pour un taux pouvant atteindre jusqu'� 30% d'une ann�e sur l'autre. A l?horizon 2014, les technologies FTTB/H devanceront largement les d�ploiements VDSL�. En revanche, la r�partition des
abonn�s � travers le monde ne conna�tra pas de r�el changement :

? l'Asie demeurant la r�gion o� le FTTH/B est le plus d�ploy� et devenant m�me la r�gion phare du VDSL au regard des strat�gies actuelles de certains op�rateurs asiatiques.

? Les Etats-Unis, qui ont connu une croissance l�g�rement plus importante que pr�vu en 2008, devraient conserver environ un an d'avance sur l'Europe de l'Ouest.

? Ailleurs dans le monde, le FTTx sera un levier de croissance du secteur des t�l�coms notamment en Europe de l'Est mais restera plus confidentiel dans d'autres r�gions comme le Moyen-Orient. En effet, malgr� le potentiel que repr�sente ce dernier, en particulier dans les Pays du Golfe, il reste que pour l?instant les annonces des op�rateurs de la zone ne confirment pas un d�veloppement FTTx d?envergure � court terme.

> Lire la suite

Discover our ?FTTx Watch Service? specifically designed to provide with a global FTTx projects database, a comprehensive analysis of the issues affecting this promising market:

? Database: a unique, continually updated FTTx market database, providing market data by country and by technology, along with forecasts for the coming months and years

? Insights: Monthly views on key issues

? Market reports: Quarterly

N�464 - Media companies� e-Commerce Strategies - 18 March 2009

2009-03-18

In this note IDATE examines media companies� relationship to e-commerce. For most of them, advertising alone is not enough to finance their online operations, added to which they are having to contend with a growing field of competitors: pure players, content aggregators, other media UGC (User-Generated Content).

CPM is lower online than off: an online consumer generates five to 10 times less ad revenue than an offline consumer. E-commerce is thriving and offering media sites a potential source of added income, particularly if they have been involved in sales activities offline for a long time (shopping channels, licensed products, co-branded and special editions).

� Media companies are having to contend with greater competition on the Internet than in the physical universe: pure players, content aggregators, other media UGC (User-Generated Content). CPM is lower: an online consumer generates five to 10 times less ad revenue than an offline consumer.

� At the same time, the e-commerce market is growing steadily, added to which media companies are already veterans of offline sales (shopping channels, licensed products, co-branded and special editions).

� The media now have the opportunity of developing into veritable media stores by incorporating e-commerce offers into their editorial content.

� Depending on their size and how qualified their audience is, traditional media companies� websites can roll out different e-commerce strategies:
- simple affiliation to monetise audience,
- price comparison service,
- licensed products,
- specialty e-commerce,
- e-commerce incorporated into editorial content.

The different models can be combined depending on the product involved, and the cohesion with the company�s core business and audience. Media companies� websites would also do well to develop a two-sided business model, whereby each side � namely ad revenue and their media store business � feeds the other.

N�463 - Broadband via Satellite - 17 March 2009

2009-03-17

This report examines recent developments in the United States, Asia and Europe, analyses the issues involved in rolling out these services and assesses the opportunities tied to the deployment of fixed satellite access services in residential markets in Europe and North Africa.

Broadband via satellite back in the news

According to Maxime Baudry, the report�s Project Leader, �Two-way solutions have been developing for several years now, allowing users to do away with the need for a telephone connection. While traditionally using the Ku band, the Ka band was introduced in 2005 as an added alternative�. Despite certain technical restrictions, the introduction of the Ka band helps drive a �revival� of high-speed satellite access thanks to a much more appealing business model than the one tied to the introduction of the Ku band several years back. Overall, the current price per Mb for the Ka band is four to ten times less than for the Ku band, which has been made possible by a satellite capacity that has increased by a factor of 70 in a matter of years, for the same price. The price of the user terminals, which is also key to the success of high-speed Ka-band satellite access, has dropped by a factor of six in five years, going from 2,000 EUR in 2004 to 350 EUR at the end of 2008.

Main conclusions of this IDATE report

� IDATE estimates that there were still over 30 million households in Europe and North Africa that were not covered by a terrestrial broadband solution in 2008, or 16% less than in 2007. More than half of these households are located in North Africa.

� After having emerged in North America and Asia, satellite broadband in the Ka band was introduced in Europe in mid-2007 and has since proven a popular solution for several European telecom operators looking to cover the several thousand customers still cut off from the digital world.

� The market expected to enjoy the highest rate of growth in the coming years is the Ka-band satellite market, especially thanks to wide-reaching government plans to reduce the digital divide.

� The revival of the satellite broadband market has been enabled by a massive drop in the price of terminals, combined with the introduction of the Ka band which has helped bring down the price of bandwidth considerably.

� In the battle with terrestrial technologies, and particularly wireless ones (3G and WiMAX), satellite technology needs to leverage its assets, the main one being immediate availability at a reasonable cost.

IDATE�s analysis includes four strategic scenarios based on four geographical zones defined according to key criteria that allow us to establish the most suitable positioning to adopt for marketing a satellite broadband service in each.

N�462 - e-Paper face � la presse et l'�dition - 12 March 2009

2009-03-12

Dans son rapport consacr� aux perspectives de le-Paper, l'IDATE analyse les enjeux autour des technologies de papier �lectronique et dresse un �tat de l'art des technologies et des enjeux autour des grands march�s verticaux, notamment pour la presse et l'�dition.

Le march� du papier �lectronique (ou e-Paper) est d�sormais en phase de d�collage, autour de quelques applications cl�s. Le papier �lectronique, appel� encore parfois encre �lectronique, n'est pas � proprement parler une technologie, mais un ensemble de technologies d'affichage modifiables �lectroniquement et reproduisant l'apparence du papier. L'e-Paper est donc un concurrent du papier (feuille, carton) mais aussi des technologies d'�cran (LCD, OLED). Le march� de l'e-Paper est encore modeste, mais devrait atteindre les 2 milliards USD d'ici 2012, avec un v�ritable d�collage en 2010, autour de seulement quelques applications, bien que l'e-paper puisse � terme concerner de tr�s nombreux secteurs.

� Dans un contexte de d�mat�rialisation des contenus et de diminution des revenus sur la plupart des segments (hors presse gratuite) du fait de la concurrence d?Internet, le secteur de la presse se penche logiquement vers cette technologie comme un support compl�mentaire, offrant une nouvelle approche de l'information (plus r�active). Le passage � l'�lectronique permet aussi la r�duction des co�ts de mati�res premi�res, de fabrication et de distribution (jusqu'� 60% des co�ts).

� Les initiatives purement propri�taires, comme celle des Echos ou du Yantai Daily en Chine, restent toutefois encore modestes, du fait du co�t �lev� du terminal. En revanche, les offres de kiosque autour du Kindle d'Amazon aux Etats-Unis (avec les plus grands quotidiens internationaux) ou d'Orange et SFR en France (avec les quotidiens majeurs fran�ais) se multiplient. Les performances sont souvent jug�es insuffisantes (temps de r�ponse, couleur), notamment par l'association de grands groupes de presse IFRA, du fait de la comparaison avec les ordinateurs portables ou les t�l�phones mobiles. L'investissement dans un �quipement d�di� au seul usage presse semble difficile � envisager. Mais un m�me terminal pourrait aussi adresser le monde de l'�dition.

� Le march� de l?�dition est en faible croissance dans la plupart des pays industrialis�s. Contrairement aux autres contenus, la num�risation des livres est encore peu d�velopp�e, en dehors du Japon (autour surtout des mangas). Le monde de l'�dition s'attend toutefois � un basculement progressif vers le num�rique, profitant des atouts de l?�lectronique (indexation, stockage, �volutivit�, interactivit�, bonus type DVD) et des grandes initiatives de num�risation.

� L'�dition g�n�rale avance lentement, notamment pour ne pas d�stabiliser ses canaux de distribution habituels (libraires). Le produit e-Paper souffre aussi du rapport affectif au papier du livre (lecture plaisir) et des habitudes des lecteurs, ce qui limite l'e-Paper � un march� de niche c�t� grand public. Toutefois, les �diteurs sont d�j� nombreux � se positionner autour du Kindle d'Amazon, qui propose un reader connect� en 3G (connectivit� incluse), quelques services int�gr�s (dont l'acc�s gratuit et illimit� � Wikipedia) et une plate-forme de distribution de contenus avec notamment un prix standard de 9.99 USD pour la liste des best sellers du New York Times (soit des prix cass�s). Cette approche s'apparente � celle d'Apple sur la musique avec iTunes/IPod. Malgr� des contraintes encore fortes (interop�rabilit�, design minimaliste), Amazon a d�j� attir� pr�s de 300 000 acheteurs, ciblant surtout les technophiles et les grands consommateurs de livres.

� Un d�collage via des applications sp�cialis�es : l'e-Paper semble en fait plus adapt� aux contenus �ditoriaux professionnels ou industriels, qui suivent une logique de lecture savante ou encyclop�dique. Le terminal e-Paper peut en effet embarquer des contenus volumineux et �tre utilis� en situation nomade (faible consommation, faible poids), m�me en environnement extr�me. L'e-Paper est ainsi d�j� employ� dans l'a�ronautique et test� dans le secteur juridique et dans diff�rents secteurs industriels (manuels de maintenance). Enfin, pour des aspects plus grand public, l'e-Paper devrait percer d'abord sur des applications de type guide de tourisme.

N�461 - DigiWorld Summit 2009 - 4 March 2009

2009-03-04

Next IDATE's DigiWorld Summit
18 & 19 Novembre? Montpellier (France)

Que recouvrent r�ellement les concepts d'ouverture ("open source, open API, open mobile, open internet, open t�l�vision", ...) ? et que nous disent-ils sur les innovations de rupture, l'organisation future des industries num�riques, ses leaders, les nouveaux "business models", l'�volution des pratiques de normalisation et d'IPR, les r�gles de concurrence, les priorit�s des politiques publiques, ...?

� Open Innovation et Web 2.0 : comment les acteurs du "social networking" et de l'UGC g�rent-ils
l'innovation sur leurs plates-formes ? Quels sont les diff�rents mod�les suivis ? Quelle place pour les telcos ?

� SAS, Cloud computing, ... : la place de Linux dans les nouvelles architectures applicatives

� Open Mobile et la cha�ne de valeur de l'Internet Mobile : les enjeux de l'ouverture dans les OS, les API, les espaces de t�l�chargements ("stores"), l'acc�s au spectre, ...

� Open IPTV : quel est le futur de la TV manag�e face aux offres sur le Net ?

� Open DRM, licences globales, ... : les pistes face au piratage des contenus audiovisuels

� Open Net / Open Access : faut-il une l�gislation sur la "Net neutrality" ? Avec quel impact sur les incitations � investir dans les nouvelles infrastructures � haut d�bit fixe et mobile ? Quelle est la place des investissements publics ?

� Open telcos : quels sont les mod�les (int�gration verticale, mutualisation, s�paration fonctionnelle, ? ) qui peuvent g�n�rer une nouvelle croissance profitable ?

� "Openness" et concurrence : quels sont les probl�mes nouveaux de concurrence qui doivent �tre trait�s ?

Plus sur : www.digiworldsummit.com

> Le t�moignage des leaders de l'industrie num�rique (t�l�com, Internet, m�dia)
> L'analyse des experts de l'IDATE
> Un focus particulier sur le pays invit� en 2009 : les Etats-Unis

> The views of digital industry leaders (telecom, Internet, media)

> Analysis from IDATE?s experts

> Close-up on the Guest Country for 2009: USA

Contacts
> Programme & speakers : Sophie Monjo, +33(0)4 67 14 44 13 - s.monjo@idate.org
> Sponsoring & Organisation : No�lle Sulmoni-Laborde, +33(0)4 67 14 44 08 n.sulmoni@idate.org

N�460 - Telecom equipment - 3 March 2009

2009-03-03

Increased pressure

The global telecommunications equipment market grew by close to 5% in 2008: a moderate rate of growth that involved a shift in the contribution made by handset components and infrastructure hardware. From a geographical standpoint, Asia was the prime source of growth � specifically China and India � which accounts for two-thirds of the increase in sales worldwide, while representing only just over 40% of the total market (and China and India combined accounting for less than 20%).

Indian operators� investments have increased by close to 50% a year since 2003, on average, or by seven times in five years. From a broader perspective, the Asia-Pacific region�s contribution to global spending on telecom networks increased by four points during that time, while Western Europe and North America lost six and five points, respectively.

Bleaker outlook

In the world�s advanced regions, where the situation in an already lifeless services market has been worsened in recent times by the prospect of a looming economic crisis, operators are tightening their belts further still to be able to maintain their margins, and are being particularly cautious about their investments. For equipment manufacturers, this means added pressure on sales, especially since the handset market, of which mobiles represent 90%, is also suffering a downturn after three to four years of double-digit growth.

The rise of Asian manufacturers

In the infrastructure equipment segment, it is Chinese companies that are enjoying the strongest growth momentum by far and which no doubt have the best prospects when it comes to exports, as much to emerging markets as to mature ones. Huawei�s revenue increased six times between 2003 and 2008, during which time ZTE�s quadrupled. Among Western companies, Cisco and Ericsson have fared particularly well, thanks to growth in IP routing hardware sales for Cisco � helping the company multiply its sales by a factor of 2.5 in five years � and to the success of infrastructure-based services for Ericsson, whose sales nevertheless dipped in 2008.

The big mergers, on the other hand, have translated into mediocre performances for their protagonists: Nokia Siemens and Alcatel Lucent reported sales in 2008 that were only just equal to 2003 levels. These results, and particularly the downwards slide since 2005-2006, can be seen to be due to the sluggish momentum in Europe and North America in particular. Meanwhile, the lack of critical mass has increased the pressure on smaller players such as Motorola and Nortel, in an environment where price wars are heating up � claiming Nortel as their first victim, with many expecting the firm to file for bankruptcy.

Handset market also feeling the squeeze

The economic slowdown is also likely to increase its impact on mobile phone sales. IDATE remains �quite optimistic� over the outlook for 2009, and states that the mobile phone market has progressed by 5% in 2008 reaching 1,200 units sold over the year. Mature markets where sales are driven by replacement should feel the greatest impact, with the possibility of negative sales in North America, Western Europe and Japan. Over the longer term, sales in 2010 will likely remain low (<6%) but with a renewed interest from users for innovative models. Sales could begin to gain traction once again starting in 2011, depending on how the current crisis plays out.

Opportunities for 2009

At a time of economic crisis across the globe, combined with structural difficulties in the telecom equipment market, IDATE nevertheless asserts that there are still a number of opportunities to sustain equipment makers willing to rise to the challenge:
� large scale 3G mobile network rollouts in China and India;
� the drive to continue to reduce the digital divide in other emerging countries, with extensions of wireless networks;
� investments in ultra-fast broadband networks, particularly by governments;
� increasing ubiquity of managed services, especially outsourced networks.

The telecom equipment market is nonetheless likely to suffer a downturn in 2009, with its growth rate slipping to around 1% compared to the year before.

Discover our "Telecom Equipment Watch Service" specifically designed to provide readers with a global telecom equipment database, along with comprehensive analysis of the issues affecting this market:
� Database: a continually updated market database, providing market data by country and by technology, along with forecasts for the coming months, Subscribers base, Capex and Contracts (Monthly tracking)
� Insights: Monthly views on key issues
� Quarterly market reports

N�459 - Inventory of FTTH in Europe - 11 February 2009

2009-02-11

As in previous years, IDATE has been commissioned by the FTTH Council Europe to provide an overview of the status of FTTH rollouts across Europe at the end of 2008.

To date, FTTH/B was still making real strides in Europe in terms of coverage, with some 11.2 million homes passed. Subscriber numbers are also on the rise, even if users are still concentrated in only a few countries.

In Eastern Europe, Russia has taken the lead in FTTH/B deployments and is now home to around 630,000 FTTB subscribers. If player involvement increases, the country will soon become one of the globe�s largest FTTB markets. Rollouts in the Middle East are still limited but there is real potential for FTTH/B to develop � the key driver there being massive new housing programmes.

Discover our "FTTx Watch Service� specifically designed to provide with a global FTTx projects database, a comprehensive analysis of the issues affecting this promising market:

� Database: a unique, continually updated FTTx market database, providing market data by country and by technology, along with forecasts for the coming months and years

� Insights: Monthly views on key issues

� Market reports: Quarterly

N�458 - Mobile World Market - 5 February 2009

2009-02-05

IDATE provides regular analyses of the world mobile markets' main trends - networks, terminals and services. On the occasion of the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona (16-19 February 2009), IDATE and ENTER have teamed up to publish the third edition of the special white paper: Mobile 2009: Markets & Trends taken from several IDATE market reports.

Mobile services growth decreases by 4 points and the decline of fixed telephony becomes more acute

The world telecom services market is estimated at 1,365 billion USD in 2008 � a 4.2% increase over the year before � and is expected to be worth over 1,416 billion USD in 2009. With a total turnover estimated at 742.2 billion USD in 2008, mobile services account for 54% of the telecom services market and singlehandedly deliver all of the sector�s growth. But the annual growth rate has dropped from more than 12% in 2007 to 8% in 2008. The mobile customer base worldwide grew by another 17% in 2008, but is offset by a steady decline in average revenue per user (ARPU) which dropped to 17.50 USD a month in 2008. Meanwhile, fixed network services are stagnating.

The revenue generated by data services � whose growth is being spurred chiefly by broadband access � rose by 20 billion USD in 2008, while fixed telephony revenue dropped by as much, even if the impact on the base is still limited: the number of fixed phone lines shrunk by just over 10 million during the year, i.e. by just under 1%. The number of broadband connections grew by close to 20% to 415 million at the end of 2008: with an average density of 6.4 broadband connections per 100 inhabitants, this market still has considerable room to grow, especially in emerging economies. In more advanced markets, broadband density is over 30%, i.e. between 70% and 80% of households are already equipped.

> Read online

> Download the Report

N�457 - FTTx Business Models - 19 January 2009

2009-01-19

Starting with a model of the different expense and income items, based on data culled from deployments both currently underway and announced, this report measures the sensitivity of a number of variables that factor in to ultra high-speed network rollouts. As of mid-2008, there were 28.2 million FTTx subscribers worldwide, most of them equipped with FTTH/B (25.6 million) access and located in Asia (80%) � chiefly in Japan and South Korea. North America is home to only 3.6 million subscribers (15% with VDSL-based access) compared to a base of 2.1 million for Europe (36% via VDSL) where progress has been slow, despite some increased momentum since the start of 2008. Investments in particular remain prudent and are still concentrated in small, highly populated areas, generally city centres � at least for FTTH/B rollouts. �For a great many configurations�, says Didier Pouillot, Project Leader of this report, �economic constraints continue to be the main obstacles that operators across the board are struggling to overcome.� > Read Online

N�456 - The Challenges of New Gen CE - 17 January 2009

2009-01-17

This study initially outlines the primary new gen CE (or internet-connected CE) solutions on the market today. Devices for the home (TVs, video equipment, gateways, storage units, audio equipment, videogame consoles, computers and portable devices) are analysed, along with the services connected to them. The report then moves on to look at the central challenges facing new gen CE, by posing a range of questions. Where is the value of new gen CE? What is the role of the television in new gen CE? Is the electronic provision of digital content accelerating the development of new gen CE? What are the most innovative services in the new gen CE sector? What links are there between fixed new gen CE and mobile new gen CE? What are the new gen CE business models? How is the market expected to look in 2012? A number of key elements are behind the rise of new gen consumer electronics (CE), or internet-connected CE. � Devices now feature internal storage capabilities, or can be easily connected to external standard or multimedia hard drives, via Wi-Fi or USB. � Devices are now able to communicate with each other, and are increasingly interoperable. This interoperability facilitates the transferral of content and simplifies its modification. � Devices increasingly offer internet connections, though these are still largely optional. � Devices combine telecom capabilities with an associated digital content distribution service. � Devices increasingly have a community aspect to them, include synchronous and asynchronous communication functions, and offer content sharing and exchange. For Laurent Michaud, Head o the Digital Home & Entertainment Practice, �The two first elements have laid the foundations for the development of internet-connected CE. The latter three elements characterize the added value of internet-connected CE. New gen CE is thus a package made up of a device + an internet connection + a content distribution/dissemination service.This package is generally offered together by one or two companies. There are numerous examples in terms of fixed and mobile devices, and these will be analysed, or at least cited, in this report�. > Read Online

N�455 - Mobile Internet Services - 16 January 2009

2009-01-16

The mobile Web services market has become a central preoccupation for Internet players, mobile operators and handset vendors, all of which are working to forge a toehold before the market takes off. This report analyzes the market�s growth momentum up to 2012 and the strategies being rolled out by the players, factoring in technological challenges and expected developments in new services adapted to the mobile Internet. �Despite its allure�, says Vincent Bonneau, Head of the Internet Services Practice at IDATE, �the mobile Web market will not become significant until closer to 2012, except in Asian markets where it is already well developed (South Korea and especially Japan)�. � Only 7-15% of mobile subscribers in Europe (led by the United Kingdom and Italy) and the United States in 2007 are active mobile Web users (i.e., they connect at least once a month). � In 2012, with annual growth near 30%, Europe is expected to have close to 163 million active mobile Web users, the US nearly 110 million. This would represent 20-30% of all mobile phone users or 25-40% of the population (due to the overpenetration of mobile phones, as high as 140% penetration). � The number of users in these markets will finally exceed the Japanese market, the unchallenged leader since the launch of mobile Internet in 1999, in 2010 for Europe, 2011 for the US. However, they will still be unable to compete in terms of use, with mobile Internet penetration in the Japanese market over 80%. The other major mobile Web market is South Korea, with close to 70% penetration in 2012. > Read Online

N�454 - World Telecom Services Market - 15 january 2009

2009-01-15

IDATE�s �World Telecom Services Market� report delivers an analysis of the sector by examining the way in which the telecom industry�s main segments (fixed, mobile, data and Internet) have evolved in 45 markets, along with forecasts for the next five years. �The world telecom services market is estimated at 1,365 billion USD in 2008 � a 4.2% increase over the year before � and is expected to be worth over 1,416 billion USD in 2009,� says the report�s Project Manager, Didier Pouillot. After having increased by an average 6% annually over the past three years, i.e. from 2005 to 2007, the globe�s telecommunications services market suffered a downswing in 2008, with growth dropping to 4.2% � generating a total turnover estimated at 1,365 billion USD. The structural pressures that have been weighing on the sector for several years now (decline of the fixed voice market, advanced mobile markets reaching maturity, etc.) are being compounded by the first effects of the global economic crisis and the worsening financial climate. > Read Online

N�453 - Green Telecom - 6 January 2009

2009-01-06

In the strategic imperative of reducing global carbon emission, the telecoms industry has a central role to play: not only can the industry show the way in reducing its carbon footprint but it will serve as a central enabler of reduced emissions for other industries and society as a whole. This report assesses the current status of the telecoms industry's carbon emissions and the strategies implemented by companies across its value-chain to reduce emissions. It also considers the carbon savings enabled by telecoms across other industries. Environmental impact of telecommunications The worldwide telecommunications industry is currently responsible for 183 million tonnes, or 0.7% of CO2 emissions, a very reasonable amount considering that it represents around 2% of global GDP. The average European mobile phone user is responsible for around 17 kg of CO2 emissions per year, equivalent to a journey of 111 km ride in an economy car. The average fixed and Internet user will emit 44 kg, as much as a 289 km trip. These remarkably sober performances are only slightly influenced by the desire to be green: mobile phones are very power-efficient in order to have longer battery life, and power savings in fixed networks are mainly driven by the desire to control costs. The telecoms industry could easily promote itself as an environmentally sane one, this would lend itself to much criticism, but there is still room for significant improvement in its own behaviour. Each part of the value chain is responsible for important CO2 emissions, and in all cases, much can be done to them. Figure 1 illustrates the responsibility of each link in the European telecommunications value chain for CO2 emissions. As the telecommunications market grows, so will its emissions, unless specific measures are implemented by all players in the carbon chain. Four carbon �hotspots� have been identified where significant CO2 savings can be made: � Datacentres: the vast amounts of IT equipment necessary for operators to run their networks effectively and manage their client-bases are incredibly energy-hungry. IT equipment vendors now offer much greener equipment and overall datacentre management solutions (including cooling and recycling) which could help operators to save substantial money and CO2. � Radio base stations: millions of mobile radio base stations run at full power 24/7 around the world, when there are clear patterns in traffic and power consumption that can easily be adapted to real needs. Equipment vendors are developing smart solutions to save power in the base station, by managing progressive switch-offs, or by radically rethinking base station design to generate huge potential economies. � Fixed network access equipment: The routers, switches and modems oper ated by corporate Internet users are inefficient machines that could be significantly greener if more thought was put into power management. Household broadband modems, built at the lowest possible cost, are true power guzzlers. They too could incorporate simple power management features, but in the meantime, users must take the responsibility to switch off their equipment manually when it is not in use. � Mobile handsets: although they consume very little electric power, mobile phones are a threat to the environment because of their numbers. Each year, millions of phones are produced, and almost as many are disposed of. Produc ing so many handsets is harmful to the environment; particularly as recycling practices are very poor (only 5% of discarded handsets are properly disposed of). Users must slow their renewal rates and ensure that their old equipment is properly recycled. > Read Online

N�451 - ICT Update - 3 January 2009

2009-01-03

Despite an increasingly gloomy economic climate, the ICT market has held up rather well until now, even if several signs of weakness are visible. In the United States, for instance, although the volume of productive investment (excluding ICT) had dropped by close to 20% during the year by Q3 2008, spending on computers and software was still up by 7% over 2007. In the same vein, global semiconductor sales were up 1.6% over the year before by September, spurred by a +9.2% growth in the Asian market. The economic downturn is nevertheless likely to reach the ICT market, not only in businesses but in households as well � especially in those countries where the markets have already reached real maturity. �As with IT�, says Didier Pouillot, in charge of the ICT Observatory for IDATE, �the telecommunications sector is likely to be affected by the current economic crisis � the impact being all the more acute for industry players given that the situation was already strained, with competition and technical progress contributing to the decline in the market�s value for several years now�. Europe�s services markets are among the hardest hit, and some have even fallen into recession. The German market in particular is reporting a 2.4% drop in value in 2007, with the decrease in fixed line revenue that most mature markets are already experiencing being compounded by lesser performances in the mobile services market. The drop in voice call prices over the past two years has been only partially compensated by the substantial rise in traffic and the growing use of non-voice services. The trend carried over into 2008 and could even become more pronounced: Deutsche Telekom reported a 6.8% decrease in revenue in the first half of 2008, while Vodafone suffered a 4.8% drop in its foreign sales in Q2 2008 (its strongest fiscal quarter!). At the same time, the market�s volume continues to increase massively, in terms of both users � going from 91 million mobile customers in mid-2007 to 103.4 million in mid-2008, and from 17.3 million broadband subscribers to 21.5 million during that same period � and even more so in terms of traffic: 20% rise in mobile voice traffic in 2007. On the flipside, the French market remains one of the Old Continent�s most dynamic in terms of value, being sustained by an extremely healthy broadband segment (16.2 million subscribers as of mid-2008, or 18% more than one year earlier, with household penetration now exceeding 50%) and by a mobile segment which, after a sharp dip in 2006 (+1.9%), is back on track (+4.8% in 2007). The French telecom services market thus grew by 3.2% in 2007, followed by a 3.5% increase in the first half of 2008. Growth is expected to be virtually nil in Europe�s five largest markets (Germany, the UK, France, Italy and Spain) in 2008 (+1.7% in 2007), followed by a decline in current value in 2009. The situation is deteriorating on the other side of the Atlantic as well, with telcos reporting a 1.8% drop in their fixed line operations in the first half of the year, and a 6.4% increase in their mobile revenue � which translates into an overall growth rate of 1.9%, compared to over 4% in 2007. In light of the economic situation, growth in the second half of the year will likely have remained meagre, and possibly dropped lower still. Over in Asia, the situation still differs a great deal from country to country � between advanced markets, and Japan in particular, where growth is at a standstill, and the large emerging markets, starting with China and India, where growth remains high. Recent months have nevertheless been marked by a sizeable downturn, particularly in China where the average growth rate for the country�s four main operators dropped by three points in Q3 2008, going from close to 10% in the first half of the year to less than 7% during the last three months! As a result of this slump in the services market, operators are implementing cost-cutting programmes to allow them to maintain their margins, and limiting their investments in particular. For equipment manufacturers this means more pressure on sales, especially given that the handset market (of which mobiles account for 90%) is also suffering a decline after three to four years of double-digit growth. The growth rate for mobile handset sales dropped to 5% in Q3 2008, and is expected to be virtually nil in 2009, which means a decline in value given the still high pressure on prices. The mid-range handset market has been the hardest hit while sales of smartphones in mature markets will continue to climb, as will low-cost handset sales in emerging markets. On the infrastructure equipment front, the impact is particularly acute in Europe where investments, which are more in upgrades than in new builds, can be more easily spread out over time. This particularly concerns ultra high-speed rollouts (FTTx) in Europe, for which operators� enthusiasm seems somewhat dampened, despite the announcements made over the course of 2006 and 2007. As to mobile broadband, a large portion of investments in 3G networks in Europe was made over the past several years and the major operators have either begun to scale back their spending (France Telecom, Deutsche Telekom�) or have recently lowered their investment forecasts (Vodafone). Meanwhile, the markets in the United States and Japan enjoyed a slight uptick, handsets excluded, after having suffered a setback in 2007. And, finally, the outlook for emerging markets is still relatively good. > Read Online > Download the ICT Update Letter

N�450 - Local Authorities & FTTx - 11 December 2008

2008-12-11

The role played by local and regional authorities in FTTx network rollouts varies a great deal from one part of the world to the next. Over the past several years their involvement has been particularly strong in the countries of northern Europe.

Northern Europe and Scandinavia remain the regions where local authorities have had most impact on FTTx network deployment. On other European markets, uncertainty about the maturity of technologies, market potential, financial constraints and regulatory issues (in view of the legitimacy of local authorities to fund networks that, to some degree, compete with those of operators) has somewhat curbed initiatives, even though we are currently witnessing a rise in the number of public FTTx projects, particularly in France.

In the United States, optical fibre has already been deployed for a number of years by some local authorities, but in cities today, Verizon and AT&T are the main investors, rivalling cable operators.

> Read Online

N�449 - e-Paper -

2009-01-02

IDATE�s study analyses the issues surrounding electronic paper technology. It addresses the technology's state-of-the-art and its major vertical markets, notably presenting nearly one hundred projects (in deployment or technical testing). It also analyses the potential for the expansion of the new generation of screens.

The electronic paper (or e-Paper) market is just now taking off, based on a few key applications. Electronic paper, still sometimes called electronic ink, is not really a single technology but a set of display technologies that can be manipulated electronically to reproduce the appearance of paper. e-Paper actually competes with paper (sheets, cardboard) as well as screen technologies (LDC, OLED). The e-Paper market is still small, but should reach 2 billion USD by 2012, really taking off in 2010, based on just a few applications, even though e-Paper could be used in a myriad of sectors.

N�448 - The Sustainable City & ICT - 1 January 2009

2009-01-01

More than half of the world�s population is urban and 80% in Europe. The city is central to the major challenges on the horizon: controlling energy and resource consumption, a changing urban infrastructure and meeting society�s expectations. The sustainable city is an expression of today�s aspirations to rethink urban development in terms of sustainability. The goal of this study is to better understand the role and contribution of ICT in sustainable urban development. How can ICT contribute to the development of sustainable cities? What ICT infrastructure and services can help achieve sustainable urban development? What are some recommended approaches to integrating ICT in a sustainable city project? These are just a few of the key questions examined in this study. �The sustainable city needs ICT to meet its goals and manage its changes�, says Philippe Mathonnet Leader Project of this report, �Getting the sustainable city up and running relies in part on managing, utilizing and sharing various data that work together for urban development that balances the three pillars of sustainability: environment, economy and society�. > Read Online

N�447 - Near Field Communications - 5 December 2008

2008-12-05

NFC is a very recent technology and as a new technology, it needs an infrastructure to work. So far, the process of adaptation has been slow. If, in Asia, there have already been non-standard payment and ticketing schemes in public use, in North America and Europe, the services have more or less only been used in different piloting schemes. The NFC-embedded mobile handsets market is emerging and in 2007, shipments reached 32 millions units, i.e. a 3% penetration. �However,� says Micheal Nique, Project Leader of this report, �following the several NFC projects led by European and American carriers, the drop of NFC chipset cost and the increasing number of NFC enabled handset, the trend of adoption of NFC within handsets should be on the rise from 2010, with a generalization of the technology from 2012. By 2012, penetration should reach around 14% of handsets, with North America and Western Europe being heavily equipped with NFC technology�. > Read Online

N�446 - Internet Video - 2 December 2008

2008-12-02

This report examines the changes that are causing an upheaval of online video distribution and analyses content provider strategies, the evolution of associated costs and revenue and the impact of new TV programme formats. It also provides an operational model that lays the groundwork for discussion on the conditions of profitability for each type of service. �IP video consumption is skyrocketing in all of the major markets covered by this report (USA, the UK and France)�, says Jacques Bajon, Project Leader of the report, �and around the globe. Video will continue to drive the increase in Internet traffic as consumption rises, as TV services migrate to the Web and with the expected improvement in picture quality � the turning point here being the increased consumption of high definition programmes�. > Read Online

N�445 - Mobile Internet Services - 2 December 2008

2008-12-02

The mobile Web services market has become a central preoccupation for Internet players, mobile operators and gear manufacturers, all of which are working to forge a toehold before the market takes off. This report analyzes the market�s growth momentum up to 2012 and the strategies being rolled out by the players, factoring in technological challenges and expected developments in new services adapted to the mobile Internet.

� In 2012, � says Vincent Bonneau, Leader Project of this report and Internet Services Practice Leader at IDATE with annual growth near 30%, Europe is expected to have close to 163 million active mobile Web users, the US nearly 110 million. This would represent 20-30% of all mobile phone users or 25-40% of the population (due to the overpenetration of mobile phones, as high as 140% penetration)�.

> Read online

N�444 - World FTTx market development - 1st December 2008

2008-12-01

The inventory completed by IDATE on 30 June 2008 confirmed that Asia continues to dominate the globe�s ultra-broadband market by a healthy margin, but that Europe and especially North America are making real strides. In Europe, countries such as France and Norway were reporting a sizeable increase in FTTH/B subscribers in the first half of 2008. The globe�s FTTx market, which in-cludes FTTH/B, VDSL and FTTLA, rep-resented 28.2 million subscribers as of 30 June 2008. FTTH and FTTB are still the most prevalent network architec-tures, accounting for more than 90% of the world�s optical fibre subscribers. VDSL does appear to be making strides, and accounted for 4.5% of the FTTx market as of 30 June of this year. This is due in part to the state of the European market, and particularly to Swisscom in the Swiss market and Belgacom in the Belgian market. Meanwhile, over the in the United States, AT&T�s VDSL base continues to grow as well. > Read Online

N�443 - Does the current crisis threaten the Internet of the Future? - 21 November 2008

2008-11-21

in Les Echos, 21 November 2008 The Internet has by now become a regular part of everyday life � to such a degree that we forget the profound transformations that went along with the emergence of the Web, and later the explosion of broadband, the interactivity of social networks and the massive traffic generated by UGC video sites, etc. But this precious momentum that makes the Net a veritable laboratory of innovative uses is a fragile one, and the future of the Internet involves a number of challenges. First it will need to handle the 60% annual rise in traffic driven by the expanding user base and by increasingly bandwidth-hungry applications. The quality of service constraints of the different applications � which demand that the packets that make up a video sequence be sent in the right order, for instance � are not compatible with the Net�s �best effort� approach. The cooperative principles that govern a substantial portion of the interconnection agreements between the elements of the network of networks are undermined by traffic asymmetries. The legal peer-to-peer download protocols, such as Napster, are creating clots in operators� networks. By no mean cataclysmic problems. Countermeasures have been developed to optimise routes, to deliver the most popular content by deploying local servers closer to users, and even to discriminate between packets according to the type of application� Financing the mobile internet and optical fibre access But beyond these issues of day-to-day operations, of the evolution of its protocol and its rules, the internet will face a new series of challenges. Starting with the mobile internet, after exaggerated reports of its birth, the mobile Web has gradually taken shape thanks to cellular networks that deliver speeds comparable to early incarnations of ADSL, to handsets with advanced interfaces and to ultra-portable laptops, combined with more affordable subscription prices. But its development will require more spectrum, considerable investments to deploy new generation wireless technology (4G with more bits per hertz) and stepped-up convergence with fixed broadband networks (which will serve much more numerous micro-stations). This is not a simple equation for operators � and is comparable to the new paradigm that broadband imposed on telcos. We should also add that if, in mature markets, the mobile internet will likely mean the arrival of new applications (geolocated services), in emerging markets it will be the dominant means of accessing the Web. The second expected wave of development will bring with it connections of an infinite nature as it will involve equipping objects (cars, shipping containers, meters, etc.) more and more with RFID tags that will help build an internet of things. Meanwhile, another major telecommunications adventure has begun. ADSL over the telephone network�s copper local loop is gradually revealing its limitations. Half of all phone lines are too long to deliver the 10 Mbps required to route a high quality high-definition TV programme, while leaving enough bandwidth for other applications, hence the need to deploy optical fibre access. Having to contend with powerful cablecos, telcos in the United States have understood this: Verizon has already invested as much as the largest oil companies. The same is true of Japan�s market leader, NTT. Rollouts have begun in Europe and in France. Here too, investments involve major risks as there is no guarantee that consumers will be willing to pay a lot more for a higher speed connection, and it will be difficult for operators to find another product or service that would help shore up their margins� Will these challenges and investments be affected by the crisis? Most analysts view telecom operators� business as a resilient one. They generate a health cash flow and have recurring revenue. They were hit hard by the crisis in 2001-2002 caused by the dotcom and 3G licence bubble which forced all but a very few telcos to tighten up their management and devote a substantial portion of their revenue to restructuring and alleviating their debt. As a result, over the past few weeks, most operators have outperformed market averages, but it still seems hard to believe that the repercussions of the credit crunch will not have an impact on mergers and on investments in the internet of the future. Plus the market�s short-term growth potential is limited: in both Europe and the United States, broadband market growth is down while mobile operators� revenue � which has been the sector�s chief driving force � is not likely to translate into growth over 2% or 3% in Europe�s major markets. Meanwhile, American operators whose mobile business developed later than in Europe, have enjoyed double-digit growth up until this year and, on the whole, have invested more in their fixed and mobile networks. But cellular market growth will take a serious downturn this year � in other words, it is right at the time when operators should be investing more to prepare for a new growth cycle that investments will likely be scaled back. It also seems likely that the overall deterioration of the economy, combined with the housing crisis, will have an impact on households� and businesses� consumption. We have already seen an acceleration in the declining number of fixed phone lines in the US (9% last quarter, on an annual basis) � with those consumers forced to make a choice between landline and mobile likely to opt for the latter. What to expect from public authorities? This is the question that dominated the round table in New York in late October that was organised by CITI (Columbia University) and IDATE. At first glance, nothing really new was said. The president of Verizon reiterated that regulation could only be viewed as an impediment to investors. This statement was met with some amusement from the Europeans, as Verizon and AT&T have, in fact, been freed from any obligations to open up their infrastructure to the competition, whether copper local loop or new FTTx network. As to antitrust policies, they did nothing to stop a spectacular series of mergers and acquisitions which led to the current telecommunications market of which two thirds is controlled by only four carriers. It is nevertheless true that telcos are having to contend with powerful cable companies which have been stealing away broadband and telephone market share for some time. In Europe, where cable does not have that kind of power, operators have accepted the principle of opening up their local loop to the competition, but they have not accepted that their investments in fibre be subject to the same unbundling obligations as the copper local loop � something that Brussels has not imposed, per se� But the real news came from elsewhere! And what if what has just happened in the financial sector were to affect the mindset of the telecom and internet sector. Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz drew a lengthy parallel with finance, reminding the audience how he had repudiated opposition to regulation in the past, and viewed soft regulation and self-regulation as oxymorons. It was Stiglitz�s view that, like the financial sector, telecommunications are dominated by externalities, �club� effects that require a regulator�s intervention and vigorous antitrust measures, more so than other sectors. His talk left the audience baffled, even if it did encourage the other America to remember the dangers of the digital divide for ultra-fast broadband, and Barak Obama�s position on increasing regulation that would ensure net neutrality. As a preliminary conclusion, it is certainly important to take better account of the cyclical nature of this industry, especially when accompanied by a financial and economic crisis. The Internet of the Future is of sufficient import to our economies and our societies that, as Professor Eli Noam said in his call for a regulatory overhaul ('Policy 3.0'), what is needed are provisions adapted to market realities and careful identification of the various options (fiscal incentives, more efficient management of ducts and cable paths, support for rural zones, etc.) capable of stimulating investment. Yves GASSOT CEO, IDATE

N�442 - DigiWorld Summit 2008, F. Lorentz - 20 November 2008

2008-11-20

In this time of crisis, the DigiWorld Summit comes modestly on the heels of the G20. As we all know, every crisis constitutes both a threat and an opportunity. The threat this time around is one of the most severe that we have seen since the second World War. But it also opens up the possibility of reshuffling the deck and inventing new growth models. It seems to me that the role of the digital world in this new order should be at the heart of our discussions over the next two days. > PWP and Video Online But, first, a word about the crisis. I�m not a soothsayer but it does appear that all the elements point to a long and deep crisis ahead. The model on which we built our growth over the past 10 years was founded on artificial consumption stimulated by accumulated debt, on unbridled inflation of assets and the creation of false value. What we�re experiencing now is a brutal return to reality. In some respects, the digital world seems rather well prepared to weather the storm ahead. The burst of the tech bubble back in 2001 forced the sector�s leading companies to purge and pare down their structures and finances drastically. They helped limit over-exuberant speculation over fuzzy concepts, shaky technologies and adventurous teams. Even so, we will not be spared the consequences of the loss of trust that is inflating the effects of the financial crisis, and weighing as much on consumer purchasing power as business financing. Predictions now are that, in 2009, the volume of the world mobile phone market could shrink by 1% to 2%, and even more in value. Ad-funded models are threatened by advertisers� tightened budgets. Investors are concentrating on businesses that are already profitable, and they are no longer interested in audience figures but the ability to monetise. There are already signs of panic in Silicone Valley, which will be quick to amplify market fluctuations. This crisis could be a long one, lasting a year, a year and a half, two years? Nobody knows. But what does appear certain is that the readjustments that will be needed will go well beyond just reining in hedge funds, rating agencies and, more generally, players from the financial world. What we have is a need to establish new balances between the desire for short-term financial or budgetary gains and the need for long-term investments, between free market and regulation, between the economic areas of East and West. In this depressing environment and with an uncertain future ahead, IDATE and I are more certain than ever that the technologies and services of the digital world will be at the heart of the restructuring that�s getting underway and of the recovery when it comes. The healthy momentum of Web 2.0 is proof of technologies� capacity to spur economic and social change. Social networks, mass individualisation, the self- and interactive expression of the blogosphere, collective creativity� all are having a profound influence on behaviour, consumption habits, working habits and business models. The role that the Internet played in the presidential election in the US and the success of Barack Obama provided a dazzling illustration of the changes at work. This is not to say that there has not been collateral damage. The difficulties that the media, and particularly print media, are having in undertaking the needed changes offer a particularly vivid example: of the top 10 American news sites, only one belongs to a member of the traditional media, namely the New York Times. I am convinced that these changes will only get bigger and faster, spurred by a major technological leap forward, following through on those that brought us big computers, mini-computers, PCs and PCs connected to the Web. This new cycle will not be confined to the Internet, but will pervade the entire digital universe and combine mobile access to the Net with the exponential increase in the power and efficiency of computing tools via cloud computing. Thanks to the performance delivered by 3G, 3.5G and soon 4G, the mobile Internet opens up an unlimited arena of new uses that incorporate images, location-based applications and social networking. The mobile phone is becoming a multimedia device that�s cheaper, faster and easier to use than a micro-computer, and that you can carry it around in your pocket. It offers billions of users around the globe interactive access to a stunning array of information, services and connections. At the same time, cloud computing, which Google, Amazon and others have put into place, makes it possible to harness the processing and storage capabilities of innumerable computers and their peripherals on a planetary scale. Combined with the development of search tools and online applications, what is taking shape is an extreme concentration of storage, data and knowledge exploitation capabilities, ushering us into the petabyte age. As foreshadowed by the recent project launched by the NSF, interconnecting 16,000 computers to simulate the human brain, this new stage leads to an astonishingly more effective use of the global informational capital and to the development of radically new tools and methods for mastering the complexity. The Internet of things, or M2M, will no doubt constitute an additional element in this new stage of the game, even if standardisation issues and consumer reluctance could hamper its development in some areas. One of the major features of this new cycle is that it is consumer driven: consumer traffic on the Web exceeded business traffic in 2008 and predictions are that, by 2010, individual users will account for 70% of the digital universe. This growing dependence on consumers does create an added vulnerability, but it is also a major asset. First, because the global market for first equipment is far from saturated, with emerging markets still constituting huge growth pools. In the more mature markets, having access to communications and the services delivered by the Web is now perceived as a priority. Proof of this can be found in the lack of elasticity with respect to income: in France, for instance, people spend an average 8% of their income on digital products and services, while those who earn under �15,000 spend 17%. Last but not least, digital world consumers are becoming producers more and more � making active and independent contributions to the ebb and flow, to the Internet�s dynamic and the exponential growth of interacting streams. This is particularly true of �digital natives�, those generations who have grown up with the Internet as a natural way of accessing knowledge, a preferred means of socialising and an unparalleled playground. Images are at the heart of everything they do, thanks to improved definition and the ability to access them from any device, whether mobile and not. These consumer-producers are highly demanding and highly creative, continually dreaming up new applications and contributing to the ongoing stream of new ideas, services and business models. Even if it cannot all be monetised, this momentum is nevertheless contributing to the roughly 60% annual increase in traffic on these networks. The new cycle of information and communication services and technologies clearly represents a huge surge of value creation and growth. Of course, we have to hope that the credit crunch, the paralysis of the stock markets and the preference for liquidity do not impede the ability to capitalise on this momentum. Infrastructure and innovation are particularly vulnerable in the current financial juncture. The capacity of communication networks needs to keep up with the exponential rise in consumption and traffic. The growing ubiquity of high-definition images, and of 3D ones down the road, make ultra-fast broadband a necessity. Just as a reminder: in France only 50% of ADSL lines make it possible to achieve a speed of 10 Mb/s, which means that we have a massive investment ahead of us which, according to IDATE, for the whole of Europe could reach as much as 300 billion euros. In the current climate, the ability to earn a return on this investment could seem meagre, too far off or too risky for the companies and the investors struggling to raise capital. There is no guarantee that competition, which proved an extremely efficient engine for putting our country among the leading ADSL populations, will be enough to create the needed momentum. There has been a singular increase in the responsibilities put on European, national and local regulators and public authorities. As concerns France, the directions taken by telecom regulator ARCEP, the measures contained in the Law on modernising the economy and Eric Besson�s action plan are steps in the right direction. But will they be enough? Will their implementation be in sync with the tightened belts and resources that the situation has forced upon us? Another area that is being threatened are the innovation pools, potential creators of wealth, contained in the digital universe. While these innovations are often technological in nature, they can also concern marketing, distribution modes or business models. They know no frontiers and the best among them can find a market immediately, or create new behaviour patterns on a global scale. Their promoters are driven by creativity and the desire to innovate, precious commodities in a world of doubt. They have become more numerous and some have matured from the lessons learned by the burst of the high tech bubble. This very positive evolution is due, in part, to the measures taken in France and Europe over the past 10 to 15 years, working to provide financing and support. It has also been helped by major corporations, equipment manufacturers, content providers and operators which became aware of the common interest of developing ecosystems that could enhance and stimulate their own capacity to innovate. These key players in the digital dynamic, these creators of the Dibcoms, the Business Objects, the PriceMinisters and, why not, the Amazons and Googles of the future, could be among the victims of a crisis that discourages risk-taking. Of course it is up to them to rise to the occasion, to overcome the increased but legitimate demands of return on investment and customer satisfaction. But it is up to public authorities to ensure that, more than ever, the fiscal, financial and regulatory environment provides support for those who have the courage to innovate and boldly go. The Internet and the digital arena that it encompasses are at the heart of the new world order now taking shape. It enables the exponential growth of information accessible to everyone, anywhere, anytime. And now more than ever before the challenge is to transform this informational growth into economic growth and an improved standard of living. The technological cycle we have entered into, of the mobile Internet and cloud computing, offers us an opportunity. The crisis could, paradoxically, accelerate the changes at work, spur the use of new generations of tools and applications, stimulate the emergence of new behaviour patterns and business models. Facebook, Meetic, Dizzer, Wikipedia, and Dailymotion all provide a partial response to the individual and collective expectations that have been exacerbated by the economic woes and fears about the future. What we call the digital economy cannot replace the traditional economy, any more than the virtual world can replace the real world. But it is upsetting existing balances, opening up new frontiers and inviting initiative. France has made real progress in its adoption of and immersion in the digital universe. But it is still far from being a global leader if the rankings of the World Economic Forum are any measure. Aside from the brilliant exceptions in the northern part of our continent, the whole of Europe needs to work harder to capitalise on the opportunities opened up by this digital new deal. And so it is particularly serendipitous to have with us our Korean friends who can share the lessons of their particularly rich experiences in these areas. I would like to extend my heartfelt thanks to them for being here today, and for sharing their knowledge with us. Francis LORENTZ Chairman, IDATE

N�441 - New Communication Trends - 7 November 2008

2008-11-07

Use-IT Europe - Survey among young early adopters IDATE has released the fifth edition of its market report devoted to analysing consumers� ICT consumption habits � published as part of its Use-IT programme. Based on an exclusive survey of over 1,500 young Internet users (18 to 25 years old) in Europe, the report provides forecasts on future communication trends as these young consumers enter the workforce. �For over five years now, IDATE has been developing a unique analysis of new convergent application consumption patterns,� reports Sophie PERNET-LUBRANO, the Use-IT Programme�s Project Manager. �This year, we wanted to take a closer look at the habits of young consumers in Europe to be able to assess how their new behaviour patterns will spread to the rest of the market.� Based on an exclusive survey, this report analyses the different forms of communication being used, and the various choices and trade-offs involved. Among the many findings in this report is the emergence of several clear trends: � �Standard� mobile configuration: mobile phone + laptop computer � Voice still the dominant communication mode, as mobile calls are replacing landline calls � New forms of communication: wall-to-wall communication, micro-blogging, ... > Read on line

N�440 - Mobile TV Solutions - 7 October 2008

2008-10-07

The Mobile TV market is a myriad of consolidation, and solution vendors are running hard to adapt. Their services can be based on linear TV channels, on-demand contents or rich media applications. The delivery vector could be existing cellular mobile networks, dedicated broadcast solutions or alternative provisioning, notably through open systems. And they have to deal with a variety of standards and formats. No wonder, then, that mobile video delivery solutions often seem closer to best-of breeds than uncluttered end-to-end kits. It is indeed a complex ecosystem, occupied by wary Tier 1 vendors of equipment and solutions along with specialized companies and new entrants. �The delivery of a mobile video content, with assurance of good quality experience, involves technologies from both the telecom world (for the network) and the content world (for content technology)�, says Jacques BAJON, Project Leader of this report, �It is still early days for mobile TV delivery solutions. Building partnerships is often necessary for creating solutions in a very fragmented market and still complex ecosystem�. This report describes the technical options available for mobile video delivery, and the challenges in the delivery chain. Focusing on the Content Delivery Solutions/platform, it presents an overview of key player positioning and major world-wide mobile TV deployments and contracts. A discussion on smoothening the path to a surer market, along with profiles of upcoming delivery solutions and services, completes a full, if complex, picture. > Read online

N�439 - Managed Services - 9 october 2008

2008-10-09

This market report carried out by IDATE seeks to answer the following questions: What are managed services? Why are managed services gaining momentum? What are the different business-models existing for Managed Services? Who is the best positioned to address the Managed Services market and each segment of the market? �In a fast-moving environment and to counter fierce competition from new entrants�, says Mathieu LIMOUSI, Project Leader of this report, �telecommunications service providers have to transform their traditional business models by focusing on customer-oriented activities. There has been a switch in carriers� core skills: Service Providers regard Customer Relationship Management, Customer retention, and other marketing activities as their new core activities. To be able to allocate sufficient resources to these activities, carriers outsource non-value added operations�. Managed Services can be described as a service which is process-based and which generates recurring opportunities. These Managed Services differ from traditional services which are product-dependent or project-based. They encompass a variety of outsourcing activities from Network outsourcing to Hosted Applications through Middleware outsourcing. > Read on line

N�438 - Data Roaming - 8 October 2008

2008-10-08

�With the rapid deployment of 3G / 3.5G networks and mobile devices, and the decrease in mobile data tariffs, a rapid growth of mobile data services is expected in the coming years.� says Julien Salanave, Telecom Managing Director at IDATE, �Data roaming represents between 6% and 10% of mobile data services revenues, i.e. around 2.3 billion Euros for E.U. countries in 2008, two-thirds of which is GPRS / UMTS traffic. IDATE forecasts a 47% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for data roaming traffic from 2007 to 2012.� This new report presents the trends of the emerging market of international roaming for data services on GSM / 3G mobile networks, the services and tariffs offered by European operators and their evolution. It also analyses the technology involved to provide data roaming services and the relations between the different players: mobile network operators, international transit carriers and clearing houses. > Read on line

N�437 - NGA Regulation - 7 Octobert 2008

2008-10-07

This IDATE report examines the challenges that arise from the transition from PSTN to Next Generation Access Networks. The study illustrates different types of fibre-based network architecture and their specific implications in the competition arena. The issues identified are further presented in a European regulatory context. �Next Generation Access networks are the biggest regulatory challenge in the wireline industry since market liberalisation in 1998� says Christoph PENNINGS, the report�s project manager �In the medium-term timeline, regardless of which type of NGA one considers, competitive rollout of several infrastructures in the same region will be limited to areas that are densely populated and ideally have some kind of ducts readily available. In other areas, competition will need to take place at bitstream level.� > Read online

N�436 - LBS - Location Based Services - 3 0ctober 2008

2008-10-03

The LBS (Location-Based Services) market is increasingly successful, driven by navigation applications and equipment: the selection of services available is growing and navigation is paired with local searches. However, LBS players are often confronted with the fragility of their business models and must face market consolidation. According to Val�rie Chaillou, the Project Manager for the study, "With sales of about 175 million EUR in Western Europe expected for 2008, the LBS market will experience rapid growth and may exceed 560 million EUR by 2011." This new IDATE study presents the different positioning technologies, including GPS, Cell-ID, and triangulation. Starting with a detailed study of the types of services (navigation, locating people or vehicles, local information and services, safety and emergency services, community services, billing), it analyzes the organization of the market and the strengths and weaknesses of its players: PND manufacturers, LBS specialists, mobile phone players (manufacturers and operators). This is also an opportunity to consider the stakes of the Galileo project, whose arrival, late though it may be, is likely to impact a still fragile ecosystem. > Read on line

N�435 - Broadcast Mobile TV - 2 October 2008

2008-10-02

While the number of effective launches and announced broadcast mobile TV solutions is multiplying, great uncertainty still surrounds the business model and expectations for profitability from this type of service. Partisans of both free and fee-based solutions are putting up their arguments, while each player�s role in the value chain (whether a TV channel or mobile operator, etc.) has yet to be defined. "With this new report", states Sophie Girieud, its Project Leader, "we are looking to provide all stakeholder-players in the development of broadcast mobile television with a solid base of analysis that uses detailed modelling for the operating accounts of operators choosing to launch such a service. Our findings lead us to the conclusion that while a basic package costing more than an average 5-6 EUR per month has little chance of attracting enough subscribers to generate revenues that outweigh the operating costs, a free service aimed at drawing a wide audience to fund itself with advertising, will also be unable, in the medium term, to make sufficient profit to ensure service durability�. > Read on line

N�434 - The Geoweb and Hyper-local Internet Markets - 29 September 2009

2008-09-29

This new IDATE report provides an overview of the geospatial internet market, commonly referred to as the geoweb: supplying an in-depth analysis of the value chain for online mapping services, a presentation of the main applications emerging around the geoweb, the strategies of the market players, along with analysis of the possible means of monetising these services and of the development outlook for the geoweb. �As the internet becomes more and more local�, says Maxime Baudry, the report�s project manager �we are seeing a growing body of digital data being attached to actual locations, the link being provided by geographical coordinates, and made legible by mapping interfaces. Roaming and mobile applications only help spur this hyper-local trend, sustained by users� need to obtain information that corresponds the where they are at any given moment." > Read on line

N�432 - Radio spectrum - 22 September 2008

2008-09-22

This new IDATE report focuses on three main topics: the outcome of the World Radio communication Conference (WRC-07), the digital dividend and the new frequency bands and their associated valuation. According to Pierre Carbonne, Project leader of this report, "The explosive growth of mobile data services will impact spectrum usage and valuation in the coming years". > Read on line

N�431 - Online business services - 22 September 2008

2008-09-22

The software industry is in the throes of deep-seated change, with the looming prospect of a possible end to the dominance of the business model based on licence sales and the emergence of business applications services that can be accessed online. According to Philippe Mathonnet, Project leader of this report, "the SaaS model has become a reality in businesses. In Europe, the ASP/SaaS market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 30% to reach 3.3 billion Euros by 2011, while annual growth forecasts for the classic software publishing market (based on licensing) are between 5% and 6%. This new IDATE market report examines the ASP/SaaS/Cloud Computing phenomenon: solutions typology, advantages of SaaS solutions, different business models, main player strategies and a Market outlook up to 2011. > Read on line

N�430 - Casual Gaming - 10 September 2008

2008-09-10

A market worth 9.2 billion euros in 2008, or a third of the video game industry�s worldwide revenue Casual gaming is triggering a revolution in the core video game industry, as well as in the sectors of edugaming, communication applications and media applications. It offers new sources of revenue with a much larger gamer base than that of the hardcore gaming sector. According to Project leader, Laurent Michaud, �the casual gaming sector � made up of content created by casual game companies and accounting for a portion of traditional video game publishers� catalogues � will be worth 9.2 billion euros at the end of 2008, around one third of the entire worldwide industry�s sales�. This new IDATE market report examines the casual gaming phenomenon (consumption, marketing and content), analyses how the sector is organised (key players, value chain, business models) and provides detailed forecasts up to 2012 for the globe�s video game market (issues and outlook) as a whole, and for casual games: on disc for PC, online PC games, mobile games, handheld console games and home console games. > Read on line

N�429 - Web 2.0 and social networking - 28 august 2008

2008-08-28

This report provides analysis of the recent outstanding phenomena on the web, namely video sharing and social networks whose community aspects are spreading to most corners of the Internet, well beyond the confines of Web 2.0. It provides details on current usage levels, key Web 1.0 and 2.0 player strategies, pioneer initiatives to monetise the community and the development of a new paradigm, based on the social graph and interoperability tools, which will likely have an impact on Internet services across the board. Web 2.0: massive usage and new giants emerging The term Web 2.0 does not have any single definition but, in its social sense, it refers to applications that are based on the principles of collaboration and sharing information and content (in many cases through virtual communities), putting users and social interaction at the heart of it all. � Growing at a tremendous rate, the main poles of attraction on Web 2.0 are social networks, whose top two players worldwide are MySpace and Facebook, with a user base that now spans across the generations. The most popular social networks nevertheless vary in the different corners of the globe, and the two titans have serious challengers that enjoy tremendous popularity in certain parts of the world. � The veteran internet giants caught the Web 2.0 train while it was already on the move. Having missed out on pioneering the phenomenon, they made up for lost time through a series of takeovers and partnerships, gradually forging themselves a place in the participatory Web, and keeping up with the latest trends. � Icons of the second generation, MySpace and Facebook are thus proving serious competitors for older players, as their success is spilling out well beyond the 2.0 sphere and putting them at the top of traffic rankings in the United States and other countries around the globe, notably in Europe. Read on line �

N�428 - Ultra-Broadband - 9 september 2008

2008-09-09

After years of talk over the various technologies and architectures, ultra-broadband (FTTH/B and VDSL combined) is expected to experience steady growth in the coming years, to reach close to 128 million subscribers around the globe by 2013. Naturally, the rate of progress will not be the same across the board, as each national market will be shaped by the country�s intrinsic features and its players. Roland Montagne, Head of the Broadband Practice at IDATE, adds �Growth of the number of FTTH/B and VDSL subscribers around the world has increased significantly in recent months, with forecasts up to 2013 indicating a steady increase across the globe for all ultra-broadband systems�. >Read on line World FTTx Markets These are just a few of the conclusions drawn from the ongoing monitoring of the globe�s ultra-broadband markets by IDATE�s FTTx Watch Service: � Database: a unique, continually updated FTTx market database, providing market data by country and by technology, along with forecasts for the coming months and years � Insights: Monthly views on key issues � Market reports: Quarterly � Analyst Access: consulting hours, analyst briefs, presentations

N�427 - TV distribution in Europe and North Africa - 25 august 2008

2008-08-25

This report identifies the major changes currently taking place in the TV broadcasting market which, over time, risk eroding satellite�s share of the market. Such erosion will occur either through mounting competition from terrestrial technologies or via the emergence of new TV viewing habits, which are likely to call into question the traditional model of mass television broadcasting in the long term. Based on an analysis of the main issues at stake in the TV broadcasting market, the report identifies the main areas in which satellite can further expand and claims which market positions hold the greatest long-term potential in the different geographical zones targeted. Five-year market forecasts on the satellite capacity required to broadcast TV over the zone are also provided. Changes likely to affect the traditional TV broadcasting model New ITC usage, especially the Internet, is gradually changing the order of things: the shackles of traditional television are now being shaken off, with viewers seeking to break out of the broadcasting model and its inherent passive viewing. Their first preference is for time-shifting, choosing precisely when they view content, and for younger viewers, in particular, VOD, personalised content and even interactivity (when a direct extension of the programme), are now what viewers aspire to. Younger people are spending less time watching live TV broadcasts, and more time viewing recorded programmes and using the Internet. Aware of the changes in TV programme viewing habits, channels and packages are striving to tailor their solutions to meet viewers� expectations. This primarily involves increasing the number of channels they use to distribute programmes. Most have thus adopted a multiple media approach, with conventional TV still the main vehicle for airing programmes, while Internet becomes a more attractive medium for exposing consumers to content. Read on line �

N�425 - New Music Markets - 21 August 2008

2008-08-21

The various segments of the music market are evolving under the impact of the shift to digital formats. This study analyzes the various online music distribution models and the associated pricing and business models using case studies. It describes the evolution in the music industry, both upstream (creating and producing music) and downstream (distribution, tie-in merchandise, live performances), and establishes the conditions for a new economic equilibrium. Finally, a five-year market forecast is provided. The decline of the CD market in the context of the global music market The global music market represents 67 billion USD, divided into three segments: recorded music (33.5 billion USD), live performances (25.6 billion USD), and music publishing (8 billion USD). Directly or indirectly, the shift to digital formats affects all of these segments: � The partial shift from physical sales to digital music sales impacts the associated revenue from music publishing; � The increase in the number of Internet distribution services implies an increase in corresponding publishing rights; � The decline in the global recorded music market increases the importance concerts hold in the music economy. Read on line �

N�423 - Mobile Broadband - 19 August 2008

2008-08-19

Telecommunications equipment suppliers and operators see in mobile broadband the growth driver that is indispensable for their expansion. But implementing data services on mobile networks poses a series of both technical and economic problems for players in the ecosystem. This study analyses the issues in mobile broadband for these players, notably with services aimed at moving fixed Internet into a mobile environment. Explosion in capacity needs and data traffic Operators� revenue from data services is growing rapidly. But the growth in capacity needs and data traffic are even stronger. There are several reasons for this: � increase in the number of mobile subscribers, � increase in the share of 3G subscribers, � specific impact of mobile Internet access services for lap top computers. Operators must provision an average of 40 kbps downstream in peak times for a user who connects using his lap top computer on an HSDPA network, but only 0.3 kbps for a user connecting using a telephone type terminal. In fact, operators who have developed mobile Internet access offers note that: � mobile data traffic is increasing rapidly, even more so when mobile Internet access services for lap tops are expanded. � Traffic generated from computers represents most of the mobile data traffic when attractive offers are available. � The traffic profile generated by computers much larger than that generated by mobile telephones or smartphones. Equipment suppliers and operators expect sustained and consistent growth in mobile data traffic in the years to come. Read on line �

N�420 - Evolution of Web Architecture - 1st August 2008

2008-08-01

CDN, P2P: an estimated market of US$ 3.3 billion by 2010 Current trends in Web architecture provide the basis for Internet service players to leverage Internet infrastructure to deliver powerful new services. This report analyses traffic trends and the new challenges of video, APIs and Web 2.0 and reviews the datacentre strategies of Internet giants, their offerings now accessible to third parties. It examines how the evolving CDN and P2P markets are enabling new services for smaller Web players, and the initial telco reactions to traffic growth. Traffic management: a major issue to providing scalable services on the Internet Traffic is often taken for granted for Web services, but ensuring a decent quality of service and keeping bandwidth costs as low as possible are still major concerns. � Quality of service can be affected by two major, concurrent, dynamics. The first issue coming to mind is, logically, the overall traffic volume. A Web server can only handle requests up to a certain threshold of bandwidth. The second issue is the number of simultaneous connections that can max out the Web server, even with limited volume of traffic per request. While standard partitioning of the servers can help to manage the load, it is only a very rudimentary answer to these two issues. It will remain an inefficient option for Websites with huge growth. � Beyond those technical aspects, traffic is also a financial issue. Contrary to general belief, IP traffic is not free, even though typical transit prices have decreased sharply in recent years and are now very low (10 USD per Mbps on some routes). The rapid development of the Internet has been thanks to peering agreements, in which players exchange traffic between their autonomous systems, for free. Even peering is not really free, as both parties have to install and operate the servers necessary to handle peered traffic. Some traffic, such as video, may also not benefit from peering agreements, as it is too asymmetrical to be included. � Web players with huge amounts of traffic are facing these technical and/or financial issues. They then have to take steps to make sure they can scale in a context of fast growth of usage, but often limited revenues -- there is almost always a time gap on the Web between service consumption and its monetization, especially with advertising. Read on line �

N�418 - Serious Games - 30 june 2008

2008-06-30

Advergaming, edugaming, training and more: and accounting for nearly a quarter of the video game industry already

By analysing in detail the characteristics, uses and different genres of serious game, thii study outlines the challenges involved with the design, development and distribution of various types of title. Similarly, the report examines the outlook for the industry and its probable growth drivers.

The serious gaming market is of considerable importance. As the link between traditional video games and practical software, serious games offer a genuine opportunity to develop a sector that is all too often considered a niche. Furthermore, they offer huge potential for growth: "In 2008,� comments Laurent Michaud, project leader of the report, �the number of potential users worldwide stands between 600 million and one billion.� This number includes purchasers and non purchasers of video games, and though the under 25s represent the key target audience, serious games are aimed at all age groups.

N�416 - Smart machines and connected objects - 11 june 2008

2008-06-11

This report addresses the next major disruption for the Internet, coming from the potential connection of billions of machines (with M2M) and trillions of objects (with RFID and the Internet of things). It assesses the key technologies to accelerate such a development, the applications that are or will be the most relevant in a connected mode and the early positioning of the industry players on this promising market.

"There are countless opportunities in the markets of both M2M and the Internet of Things" says Vincent BONNEAU, Project manager of this report, "initially in terms of cost reduction, and then through the emergence of new services, especially around improved customer service."

Internet is gaining a new life with billions of machines connected
The Machine-to-Machine (M2M) revolution has meant that machines in communication with each other become just a bit more intelligent. Humans are no longer alone in being able to connect to the Internet: now any kind of machine can do so.

� It is a sizeable market indeed, with more than 2 billion potential machines in the world, 630 million of them in Europe. Thus far, it has developed primarily in the fields of internal, wired applications, but the most dynamic surge will come from wireless M2M where cellular, satellite and other solutions are opening up new, otherwise impossible opportunities for roaming modes and in open environments.

� In 2007, the cellular M2M market was worth EUR 6 billion in Western Europe, comprising more than 11 million active modules. Its rapid growth rate will sweep it to 61 million modules by 2012, worth some EUR 38.5 billion.

� The market will develop in large-scale vertical segments, once the proper sector organisations have been put in place (standardisation, ecosystem).

N�415 - Use-IT 2008 - 9 june 2008

2008-06-09

IDATE has published the 4th edition nof its reports devoted to analysing consumer behaviour with respect to ICT services. Drawing on an exclusive survey of over 1,000 French house-holds, this report delivers consumer demand modelling based on IDATE analyst forecasts up to 2011.

Household ICT budgets stagnating, though vary depending on the service
The average household ICT budget (mobile phone, landline, internet, music, video, video games) is esti-mated at 113 EUR, including VAT, a month, and not expected to evolve a great deal. "The ICT services mar-ket will grow by 1.8% a year, on average, at current prices" says Sophie PERNET-LUBRANO, Head of pro-ject of the Use-IT Programme "to reach 121 EUR per household in 2011, with over half of the budget going to mobile services".

� Mobiles account for around half the family budget, as many families have more than one mobile � a pro-portion that is expected to increase slightly as data services become more popular.

� The other growth markets are pay-TV and internet access, thanks to an expanding customer base.

� Other markets are on the decline, however, notably fixed calling as VoIP becomes increasingly popular.

� Video (DVD and VOD) and music markets are still being undermined by illegal downloads, and their share of household budgets is expected to go on shrinking.

The future of these markets will be shaped by changes in distribution models: with new channels (online, on mobiles), new vendors (ISPs, top brands) and new price plans based on global licensing model.

Key trends in the Digital Home
� The digital home: spurring chan-ges in the TV market
� Home networks: still being cob-bled together
� Internet: the quiet revolution
� Entertainment on the web still youth but not community-centric
� The PC has not replaced the TV, but couch potatoes are becoming more interactive
� Senior citizens and pre-teens: partially untapped mobile markets
� Data services market reacting well to unlimited flat rates

N�414 - The day after switch-off - 29 may 2008

2008-05-29

While debates intensify on using the digital dividend, with the switch-off due date approaching in several countries, this IDATE report focuses on the opportunities that these additional resources could offer to terrestrial TV channel producers to establish their strategic position, strengthen their competitiveness and grow their revenue, in an increasingly competitive environment.

Based on an overview of new TV services introduced on the digital terrestrial network in Europe, the United States and Japan � services that could be greatly expanded using frequencies released by ending analogue signals -, IDATE assesses the terrestrial network�s role and advantages, just as it sees growing competitive offers from alternate broadcasting infrastructure. IDATE then analyses foreseeable strategic options for DTT players to optimise using the digital dividend in a continuously expanding audiovisual scene.

"Using frequencies from the digital dividend that will be allocated to the audiovisual sector", said Sophie GIRIEUD, Project Leader of this report, "television services which were previously unavailable or partially existent on the terrestrial network will be able to expand on DTT". The report identifies several of these services: free or paid multi-channel, Pay-per-view (PPV), VOD, HD, mobile TV and even interactive TV.

N�412 - The future of the press - 15 may 2008

2008-05-15

IDATE provides in this new report a figure-backed examination of the press�s migration to the Web, analyses the lessons learned so far and how the written press in Europe and the United States is adapting to the transition, and identifies the options available to print publications.
"Rising revenues from online advertising are failing to offset the fall in revenues from newspapers� print editions: press agencies, aggregators and other media are capturing a substantial portion of Web migration" says Gilles Fontaine, the report project manager.

Limitations of the paywall model
The paywall model is restricted to a minimum amount of premium content (like the Wall Street Journal). A switch to advertising financing is thus unavoidable for most press websites (such as the New York Times).
The market potential for selling news direct to new aggregators (Business to Business strategy) is limited, confined to just some content distributed by syndicators on the business market.
Print publications, which depend on search engine Web listings, cannot impose payment for their news. Furthermore, there is a rising tendency for major Web aggregators to join forces with newspapers to sell advertising space (Google Print Ads).

N�410 - VoIP in the French SME market - 14 may 2008

2008-05-14

At the start of 2008, 46% of SMEs had subscribed to VoIP

VoIP is enjoying swift take-up amongst small and medium businesses in France: at the start of 2008, 46% of French SMEs had subscribed to a fixed telephony service based on VoIP, compared to only 7% in 2006.

"IDATE forecasts that, by 2011, 75% of phone lines will operate over IP ports and data connections, with the remaining 25% still via TDM " analyses Guillaume Goudard, project leader.

IDATE provides an inventory of available VoIP solutions, looks at the offers and player strategies, and examines the state of demand through quantitative and qualitative analysis, in addition to exploring the market outlook for both supply and demand.

N�409 - Functional separation in telecoms - 8 april 2008

2008-04-08

IDATE, the leading European telecoms market research company, contributes to the lively regulatory debate in Europe with an empirical assessment of functional separation involving:

� an in-depth review of the (few) existing examples in the UK and Australia and the (several) projects under consideration in New Zealand, Italy and Sweden for functional separation in telecoms,

� an initial impact assessment on the functional separation case in the UK which has now been operational for two years and

� a comparison with the lessons learned from older examples of functional and structural separation in other network industries.

1. Functional separation cannot be held as a panacea for solving the telecoms industry woes and holds the risk of causing more damages than the illnesses it aims to cure. Functional separation has been invoked to address very distinct and non comparable situations, some of which have elsewhere been efficiently tackled through less radical and irreversible approaches.

There is no unique coherent set of market and competition conditions under which functional separation has been implemented or considered, raising questions as to which disease exactly is the cure suited for. For lack of a clear answer to this question, functional separation has been held by some as a panacea for any competition-related disease. Nevertheless, the market issues (e.g. modest unbundling in the UK) that functional separation has been called upon to solve in certain countries have in other geographies been addressed through other less radical regulatory tools.
In our view, this is the root cause behind several national regulators and directorates of the European Commission publicly voicing concerns, prior to the final proposal, as to the validity of the functional separation solution in telecoms, pointing to its significant implementation costs, irreversible and potentially disproportionate effects for the problem it is aiming to solve compared to less radical and intrusive, yet result-proven approaches of the currently available remedies.

2. An effective functional separation requires consent from the separated company only achievable under specific circumstances in a "win-win" deal with the regulator. Conversely, a unilaterally imposed functional separation is hardly enforceable and can lead to lasting standoff situations damaging the industry as a whole.

Because functional separation cannot exclusively be enforced through adhoc external regulatory scrutiny but requires proper internal procedures and more importantly execution to the letter and the spirit from the separated entities, it can only truly work through an active consent from, and with worthwhile incentives for, the parties involved. This has been the case of most cases of functional separation considered in telecoms so far which have moved forward beyond initial
declarations. Indeed, functional separation can be acceptable to some incumbent operators in certain sets of circumstances because it can be a catalyst for a transformation of their operations and thereby be an integral part of a corporate strategy.

We nevertheless observe that the main rationale behind voluntary functional separation being the hope for superior shareholder value creation, it is most likely to be an interim solution towards a more radical separation of activities decided by an operator making an industrial bet on a sustainable split between pipes and content. This unstable and transitory dimension of functional separation is evidenced by cases in other network industries where functional eventually gave way to structural separation (e.g. British Gas).

We also note that cases of negotiated functional separation are predicated upon a regulatory "New Deal" approach between regulators and incumbent operators which is radically different from the traditional unilateral obligations imposed upon operators. A conflictual remedial approach on this topic can on the other hand lead to standoff situations highly harmful to the telecoms sector because of as the Australian case blatantly shows. While separation can be voluntarily endorsed by some operators, unilaterally imposed functional separation is likely to create standoff situations damaging for the industry as a whole and making the scheme inoperative.

3. All in all, the risk/reward ratio of mandated functional separation remains particularly unfavourable for the telecoms industry at a time of unprecedented transition

The nature of functional separation is highly ambivalent: it can neither be considered as a panacea for regulatory reform (because of its significant implementation costs, unstable nature and irreversible effects while more predictive, proven yet less radical substitutes exist) nor dismissed as a plague when voluntarily decided or negotiated on equal terms by an integrated company. Being neither the perfect cure nor the worst of diseases, could functional separation in the end be a placebo?

We do not adhere to this view considering the profound and overall negative impacts mandated vertical separation has had in other network industries. We also believe that these risks are exacerbated in a fast-moving industry under transition. The telecoms industry is presently at a crossroads, facing an unprecedented accumulation of challenges resulting from new usage patterns (less metered voice, more non monetisable electronic communications), disruptive technologies which are creating new forms of service (e.g. VOIP) and infrastructure (e.g. Wimax) competition. Operators are in the process of adjusting their organizational and business models to adapt to these challenges. In this context, mandated functional separation holds the paramount risk of disrupting market-required and driven evolutions of industrial strategies and potentially on investment and deployment decisions for new broadband access networks.

The full research report is freely available upon request from IDATE.

N� - IDATE and PAC to partner with the EITO - 27 March

2008-03-27

Pierre Audoin Consultants and IDATE have joined their expertise in order to provide EITO with essential and up-to-date analyses of the Western and Eastern European Information and Communications Technology (ICT) markets. As part of this collaboration, EITO launched its renewed website on March 4th, 2008.

Pierre Audoin Consultants, the leading European market research and strategic consulting firm for the Software and IT Services Industry (SITSI), and IDATE, the leading European market analysis and consulting firm for the Telecom, Internet and Media industries have recently won a one-year market research project with Bitkom Research, the market research arm of Bitkom e.v, the largest information and communication technology association of all of Germany and Europe.

Bitkom Research hosts the European Information Technology Observatory (EITO) project, whose aim is to provide the most essential and up-to-date analyses of the Western and Eastern European ICT markets, including detailed statistics by country and by market segment.

As part of this project, Pierre Audoin Consultants (PAC) and IDATE lead a research consortium also composed of Context Worldwide and NetConsulting.
� PAC provides data and analysis for software and IT services markets and, in cooperation with Context Worldwide, for IT equipment markets,
� IDATE provides data and analysis for telecommunication markets including both end-user devices and network equipment and carrier services,
� Context Worldwide provides information on shipments and prices of IT equipment,
� NetConsulting is an Italian market research institute providing - in co-operation with PAC and IDATE - data and analysis for the Italian ICT market.

As part of the project, the research consortium provides detailed qualitative and quantitative information on 25 countries in Western and Eastern Europe, as well as benchmarking information with 7 of the most important ICT countries worldwide: Canada, China, India, Japan, Russia, Turkey, and the USA.

The segments covered by the research consortium include:
� IT Equipment
� Software
� IT-Services
� Network Equipment
� Telecommunication end user equipment
� Carrier Services
� Consumer electronics

This unique ICT market information is available through the www.EITO.com portal that was launched by Bitkom Research on March 4th 2008.

N� - Satcom2010 Symposium -

2010-06-02

L'IDATE et le CNES (agence spatiale fran�aise) ont le plaisir de vous inviter au Symposium Satcom2010 qui se tiendra lors du Toulouse Space Show les 9 et 10 Juin 2010.

� Ce colloque, co-organis� par l'IDATE et le CNES traitera pendant deux jours de l'avenir de l'�conomie num�rique, des compl�mentarit�s entre la technologie satellite et les r�seaux terrestre et du r�le jou� par les satellites de t�l�communications dans l?�laboration d?architectures hybrides satellite/terrestre.

� D'�minents orateurs venants du secteur du monde des t�l�communications (�quipementiers, op�rateurs de satellites, op�rateurs t�l�coms, g�ants de l'Internet, fournisseurs de services, ...) viendront donner leurs points de vue sur ces questions.

� De nombreux conf�renciers d?entreprises comme Cisco, Akamai, SFR, SES, Orange, l'ARCEP, Intelsat, Iridium, Inmarsat, Eutelsat, Globalstar, Thales Alenia Space, EADS Astrium, O3b Networks, ESA, ... ont d�j� confirm� leur participation.

Le site www.toulousespaceshow.eu/satcom2010 vous fournit des informations d�taill�es sur le Toulouse Space Show 2010 et le symposium Satcom2010 en particulier.

Nous esp�rons avoir le plaisir de vous rencontrer en Juin � Toulouse pour Satcom2010 !

N� - Digiworld Yearbook 2010 -

2010-06-02

La 10�me �dition est l?occasion de proposer l?ouvrage dans diff�rentes versions.

Aux c�t�s de l?�dition papier disponible en versions fran�aise et anglaise, plusieurs versions num�riques, sont d�sormais propos�es : une version eBook, permettant un acc�s dynamique et une lecture sur ordinateur ou certains readers et les versions d�di�es � l?iPhone et l?iPad.

> www.digiworld.org : toutes les informations sur le site d�di� au DigiWorld Yearbook 2010