IDATE News

N�650 - World Telecom Services -

2013-05-07

Digiworld by IDATE reveals the findings of its world telecom
services watch. After a setback in 2009 and very slight growth in 2010,
the global market has been inching back to a more solid recovery since
2011, growing by a modest 2.7% in 2012. This translates into telecom
services revenue of �1,115 billion for the year.

�We have observed that, overall, telecom services are recovering more slowly than the economy as a whole,� reports Carole Manero, head of IDATE�s Telecom Players & Markets report.

Read the full article about World Telecom services

N�649 - Residential LTE vs. Satellite broadband -

2013-04-15

How does residential LTE compare with satellite broadband offers?

Just as they did with 3G, telcos started to propose residential offers based on LTE. It�s notably the case of Verizon Wireless in the United States who proposes �Home Fusion� since May 2012, a service that allows households to access broadband via an outdoor LTE antenna installed on one of the walls of the building. The antenna is billed 200 USD but the installation is free. How does it compare with satellite broadband offers?

This insight is part of our latest status report on Satellite Ultra-Broadband in Europe & Africa which gives a broader outlook on the residential market and identifies the latest developments ans major trends in broadband and ultra-fast broadband markets.

Read the full article about Residential LTE vs. Satellite broadband

N�648 - LTE Baseband Market -

2013-04-12

Following Mobile World Congress 2013: the main trends regarding LTE chipsets and devices

Qualcomm is by far the unchallenged leader on the LTE baseband market with more than 80% of the market; it is followed by Samsung and its home-grown chipset strategy. Behind, the race is rather more toward the second position than the first. Major baseband vendors seem ready to embrace the market with multimode FDD/TDD LTE solutions, showing that the market has been entering a second phase:

A situation of oligopsony due to mobile phone market concentration

Entrance of Chinese and Taiwanese vendors splits the market between high and low end

Lack of baseband certifications discredits promising technology developements

LTE Devices compatibility: new standards emerging

Read the full article about latest changes for LTE chipsets device landscape

N�647 - Pay-TV vs SVoD -

2013-03-28

IDATE newest market insight offers an overview of the pay TV market in the main European countries and in the United States. It describes the different models of subscription-based video on demand offerings (SVoD): supply-side strategies and description of main players� services. It lastly analyses the SVoD services developments compared to the pay TV global market.

Find the main results about Pay-TV vs SVoD here

N�646 - Privacy, Openness and Trust -

2012-11-22

COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES No. 88, 4th Quarter 2012
Privacy, Openness and Trust

Summary : Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), and the Internet in particular, offer companies the ability to collect large amounts of data about their users, and to use this information as a key input for value creation. New business models based on gathering and aggregating personal data and leveraging big data technologies, lead to innovative market offerings. To become successful, they depend on disclosure (openness) and trust on the users' side. Though the disclosure of personal information might benefit consumers via, for example, better tailored services, openness also creates risks of abuse of personal data, ranging from increasing market power (e.g., due to price discrimination) to privacy breaches by the data holder, or even cybercrime from initiatives of rogue third parties.

Exclusive:
Interview with Isabelle FALQUE-PIERROTIN
President, CNIL, France
Conducted by Vincent BONNEAU (IDATE, Montpellier)

> Read the full interview on our blog.

> To follow, the interview with Hal VARIAN Chief Economist at Google (available next week)

N�645 - LTE Pricing Strategies -

2013-03-07

Through the analysis of global leading telcos LTE pricing strategies, our team of IDATE analysts have identified four main trends happening in Q1 2013: Multi-device connectivity strategies, Emergence of new high-speed data services, A greater and manageable quality of service resulting in new price plans and the apparition of LTE Advanced, a faster and less costly band for operators.

Read more about our latest LTE Pricing Market Insight ->

N�644 - Global LTE forecasts -

2013-02-25

IDATE provides regular analyses of the main trends shaping the world�s mobile markets: networks, devices and services. Our Mobile team have teamed up to publish the new edition of its special White Paper: �LTE 2013 - Markets & Trends� to coincide with the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona (25-28 February 2013).

LTE is gaining momentum: IDATE predicts that, by 2017, there will be a total of 916 million LTE subscriptions.

� We expect that, by the end of 2013, a significant portion of LTE devices will support both FDD and TDD duplex modes. TD-LTE deployments in India, China and many other countries in the Asia-Pacific, Latin American, and Middle East regions and, to a lesser extent, Europe will fuel this growth.

� We anticipate that more than 80% of LTE devices will also support 3G and, in most cases, 2G in 2014.

� A limited number of LTE devices will support Mobile WiMAX in order to facilitate smooth transition for operators switching to TD-LTE.

> Download the White paper - LTE 2013: Markets & Trends

> Schedule a meeting with our Consultants in Barcelona: i.jimenez@idate.org

N�643 - Traffic management Solutions -

2013-03-19

Traffic management is a crucial topic at undergoing Broadband MEA 2013 in Dubai where Roland Montagne, our Director of Telecoms Business Unit speaks about FTTH solutions and Mobile Backhaul Network.

New solutions need to be implemented to meet the needs generated by growing traffic, especially at the fixed and mobile access layer.

Our latest study answers key questions for traffic management: strategies by operators, equipment providers and Internet giants, technology solutions that can be deployed, as well as the regulatory framework around traffic growth.

Read more about Traffic Management Solutions ->

N�642 - World Television Market: Satellite broadcast -

0000-00-00

Satellite broadcasting is currently being led by the explosive
development in emerging countries. According to IDATE�s findings, there
were at year-end 2012, 372 million satellite households with more than a
half located in emerging countries. As an example, the Indian satellite
pay-TV market registered a growth of 20 million households in only two
years, to reach an estimated base of 51 million subscribers at the end
of 2012.

More information on the Satellite Broadcast Trends

N�641 - Open Innovation 2.0 - Co-creating with users -

2013-03-25

COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES No. 89, 1st Quarter 2013
Open Innovation 2.0 - Co-creating with users

Summary :

Innovation has always been a central element of competition dynamics.
During the last decades, globalization, deregulation, internet, new
technologies, the digital revolution, and consumers' behavior have
radically modified the innovation process and the competition structure.
In many areas, the offer is rich and diversified: innovation is a
unique opportunity to create competitive advantages necessary for
growth. Among the general topic of open innovation, this special issue
focuses on users' involvement in the innovation process. It offers a
collection of papers providing interesting opinions, experiences,
advances and evidence.

Exclusive:
Interview with Henri VERDIER,
Director of Etalab, Services of the French Prime Minister
Conducted by Gilles Fontaine (IDATE, Montpellier)

> Read the full interview on our blog

N�640 - Publication de l'�tude IDATE sur l'offre commerciale de livres num�riques � destination des biblioth�ques de lecture publique -

2013-03-22

Le livre est en pleine phase de d�mat�rialisation et cela suscite de nombreux questionnements sur l'avenir des diff�rents acteurs de la cha�ne de l'�dition. De ce fait, le minist�re de la Culture et de la Communication (Direction g�n�rale des m�dias et des industries culturelles, Service du livre et de la lecture) souhaite amener les diff�rents acteurs � partager autour de la question de la possibilit� de rendre l'e-book disponible en biblioth�que. Le r�le de cette �tude est d'�clairer la concertation commune par une analyse et une synth�se de la situation du livre num�rique en France et � l��tranger (Etat-Unis, Canada, Allemagne, Espagne, Royaume-Uni, Su�de et Pays-Bas).

La m�thodologie de l'�tude, men�e entre juin 2012 et f�vrier 2013, s'appuie sur pr�s de quarante entretiens avec des professionnels et des experts des pays �tudi�s ainsi qu'une �tude documentaire, le tout pilot� par un comit� de pilotage regroupant le minist�re de la Culture et de la Communication et des repr�sentants de l'�dition et des biblioth�ques.

Voici un synth�se des principaux r�sultats de l'�tude :

La p�n�tration du livre num�rique dans les biblioth�ques fran�aises est modeste m�me si l'offre est en g�n�ral plus �tendue que dans les autres pays europ�ens �tudi�s.

Les pays anglo-saxons, notamment les Etats-Unis, sont plus avanc�s dans l'offre de service de livres num�riques gr�ce � une offre de t�l�chargement cons�quente coupl�e � un fort taux d'�quipement de e-readers.

Les n�gociations entre biblioth�ques et �diteurs portent encore sur les modalit�s de transposition du pr�t traditionnel, il n'y a donc pas encore un mod�le �conomique dominant.

La question de la plate forme est centrale dans un contexte o� la diffusion du livre num�rique s'effectue, de fait, sans libraire.

> Plus d'informations sur le site du Minist�re de la Culture et de la Communication

N�639 - Social Gaming -

2013-03-07

Social Gaming: Market trends

By 2016, social games will account for nearly as 50% of the video game market

IDATE has just released its new study about social gaming:
In 2012 the social gaming market accounted for 36% of the online gaming market and 13% of the overall video game market. In 2016 its share is expected to rise to 46% of the online gaming market and 18% of the overall video game market. This video game market segment is entering the maturity phase. Its estimated revenues in 2012 were EUR 5.4 billion, which is expected to reach EUR 10.7 billion in 2016. Facebook is by a long shot the leading social gaming platform, with 235 million active gamers in August 2012.

Read the full article about the Social Gaming Market

N�638 - Tele-Communications vs OTT Communications -

2013-01-29

In 2020, for the USA and EU5 combined, OTT communication service revenues will have increased to 15 billion EUR from 7 billion EUR in 2012. Yet they will still only account for 6% of total communication service revenues, with telcos accounting for the remaining 94%. The total market will decline, mainly due to the telcos� devaluation of the market, rather than the OTTs taking their revenues.

Drawing on IDATE�s extensive work on the latest trends in communication services, this latest study, �Future of Communication 2020: Telco & OTT communication - market forecasts� delves deeper into our analysis and forecasts the paths which the market is expected to take between now and 2020.

The six key trends shaping the market

In this study, IDATE outlines the 6 key trends happening in the communication services market which will shape the market through to 2020.

1. The aggregation of communication types : IDATE notes that most communication service providers are aggregating and providing several communication types to the market. For example, Facebook is primarily a social network (which is a communication tool in itself), but also offers voice, messaging and file sharing services too. In the case of operators, they of course traditionally offer voice and messaging as their core product, but are now looking to diversify into file sharing too, either through cloud products or the GSMA-led RCSe (Rich Communication Suite enhanced) initiative, marketed as �joyn�.

2. Beyond traditional communication for telcos : The telcos are now looking to offer more than simply voice and messaging, in order to remain competitive in the market and to remain more than a dumb pipe. IDATE sees three main ways in which telcos are striving to achieve this : providing their own OTT communication service (such as Telefonica with their TU Me app and Orange with their Libon app); partnering with OTT communication service providers (such as Verizon and H3G UK with Skype and H3G HK with WhatsApp); and joining the GSMA-led �joyn� initiative, launched by the three principle operators in Spain (Orange, Telefonica and Vodafone), which aims to offer enhanced communication services across all mobile phones in the same simple way as traditional voice and SMS today.

3. Voice and messaging becoming a telco commodity : The need for telcos to offer more than the traditional voice and messaging service is largely due to the commoditisation of such services. These services are today taken for granted, and virtually all telcos offer them in abundance; that is to say for a certain fee, users get massive amounts of minutes and messages that in reality are hard to use all up, and there are also many cases of unlimited offerings. This means that the value of such services is decreasing. Another trend for telcos is bundling, from double to quadruple play. Whilst such marketing strategies are intended to increase user appeal and also reduce churn, the fee itself is normally reduced and hence further devalues the standard voice and messaging services.

4. Mobile data and WiFi makes strong case for OTTs : For OTT communication services to work on mobile, there needs to be Internet connectivity on the mobile. Especially with the exploding popularity of smartphones, this Internet connection is increasingly provided by both mobile data plans and WiFi. Unlike voice and messaging, unlimited mobile data packages are relatively rare with at the very least throttling usually involved. Especially in the case of messaging there are only small amounts of data involved and thus this poses no problem. Video communication, on the other hand, is often banned by operators, but is possible through WiFi; and in many situations where one wants to use video communication, the user is stationary anyway (such as calling loved ones far away).

5. The rise of video communication : IDATE also notes the increased interest in the market for video communication. The concept is hardly new since operators have in the past tried to market the service, but with limited success. In particular, one of the demerits of operator video-calling propositions was the high cost for users, but now OTTs have come in with a free proposition using WiFi, including the likes of Apple and Facebook. Further, the concept of WebRTC, which allows video calling directly from the browser to any other browser could potentially boost video calling; there is no need for users to download software as WebRTC is an API for developers.

6. Genuinely free OTT offers in exchange of user data : One of the obvious advantages of OTT services is that it often comes for free, or in some cases, a very low fee. As an overall trend in the Internet market, the advertising model is becoming standard and the advertising market is set to grow with better tools and analytics, especially for mobile. The communication market is no exception, and is set to profit from advertising. However, generally speaking, users see advertising as a nuisance, and there is also a market for low-cost services with no advertisements, as demonstrated by the highly successful WhatsApp application.

Soichi Nakajima
Senior consultant at IDATE

> Visit our blog to read the full article.

N�636 - Telco CDN -

0000-00-00

Facing the growth in Internet traffic, especially video, the major telecom operators are now deploying CDNs in their networks. They could potentially upset the entire video distribution ecosystem. However, technical deployments are complex and the commercial challenges are daunting in a market that is already very competitive. IDATE recently published a study providing its readers with the status of this new market and with information on the positioning of the various players in the value chain.

"Telco CDN, or the deployment of a Content Delivery Network (CDN) in an access operator's network, is a major technical and economic response by operators faced with the growth in Internet traffic, especially video. Telco CDN is essentially being driven by the major incumbent operators (especially AT&T, BT, Orange, Telefonica, KPN and Verizon) with fixed video CDN", says Vincent Bonneau, Head of the Internet Business Unit at IDATE. He insists: "Operators can achieve several objectives with this solution: improve QoS, reduce network costs and traffic using caching servers and generate new revenue streams, especially from OTT players, while continuing to capture revenue from end users (through managed services) in a two sided approach to the market. Some of them can reduce deployment costs of some services using hybrid infrastructures."

Telco CDN highlights
The operational positioning of telco CDN for operators is still relatively complex. There are several options, even though some of them have limited potential. However, transparent caching (which creates the equivalent of a telco CDN without agreements with OTT players) is growing in popularity as it is easier to implement. Actually, telco using telco CDN or caching have some decisions to make on setting the right price to attract enough traffic without setting a too aggressive price, as well as on revenue generated from managed services. Telco CDN is actually also a wholesale service which competes directly with operators' managed services for retail VOD.

Telco CDN developments by operators can upset the value chain, especially for traditional CDN players. The arrival of operators introduces additional competition in an already very competitive market, which is also undergoing heavy consolidation. The threat of competitive confrontation with telco CDN leaves room for co-opetition, with all the traditional CDN still looking to sell CDN services to operators as basic reselling of production, technology licenses or outsourced services.

CDN challengers (Edgecast, JetStream) were the first to position themselves like this with the major operators (Deutsche Telekom, KPN), joined in late 2011 by CDN leaders. Competition is stiff, and traditional CDN must adapt to interconnection imposed by the operators (especially paid peering). Operators compete mostly with the Internet giants (Google, Netflix), who have their own infrastructure (and even their own CDN), and who represent the majority of the traffic, and are not inclined to use telco CDN. Nevertheless, the impact of telco CDN is very small, due to the current lack of a federation that would provide larger coverage than the natural boundary of a telco CDN (i.e. more than only the operator's subscribers).
Telco CDN will remain a very small market in the short term.
But the opportunities in the medium and long term certainly exist, with enhanced offers beyond video, mobile development (in which traditional CDN are not competitive) and coverage of poorly served geographical regions. The potential for 2017 is estimated at 5.5% of the total CDN market. In addition, operators view this as strategic positioning in this market, as the benefits are much greater than direct profits (cost savings, improved QoS/QoE, ability to segment offers, two sided business model, etc.).

Vincent Bonneau
Project Manager & Head of the Internet Business Unit at IDATE

Visit our blog to read the full article

N�635 - Best Wishes 2013! -

2013-01-31

2013 with IDATE to understand the Digital World

Discover the original card designed by Pascal Garcin

Pascal is a young artist living in Montpellier, who makes collages from the world of Comics. One of his works was chosen by Marvel for the cover of their special edition celebrating 50 years of Spider-Man.

N�634 - NGA deployment costs -

2011-12-10

In May 2010, the European Commission adopted its Digital Agenda policy programme. It was one of the first flagship initiatives of the EU 2020 strategy. It sets ambitious targets to provide all European households with ubiquitous coverage of 30 Mbps as a minimum and half of them with a subscription of 100 Mbps by 2020. IDATE has published recently a report providing different possible cost scenarios � with a breakdown by technology and by population density (urban, peri-urban, rural).

Today, some voices are raising concerns that the goals of the Digital Agenda (DA) will not be reached in many Member States as the necessary expenditure is beyond reach, especially in the current European economic situation. This is why this report focuses in particular on the cost of the Digital Agenda in reaching the ambitious goal of coverage of 30 Mbps and 100 Mbps, and further tries to clarify, per country, what it will be. It puts forward a theoretical model with the distinction of various scenarios involving distinct technologies, namely fixed and wireless.

"In several European countries, the rollout of FTTH networks has started and the European Union disposes already of a 40% NGA net coverage amongst all its member states. Indeed, copper local loop will ultimately be replaced by fibre, it being the medium that can guarantee an almost infinite bandwidth capacity for the future. Nevertheless, good quality copper, especially in Western Europe, and the current economic situation, could lead some telcos to consider other alternative scenarios involving VDSL, LTE or even satellite in Ka band", says Roland Montagne, Director of the Telecom Business Unit at IDATE. He adds: "The adoption of a FTTH-oriented scenario by telcos will not only depend on the amount of capex necessary but also on a viable business model. On this, telcos should be innovative not only with the services they propose but also on their pricing approach (tiered pricing) and their strategy regarding smart access."

Deployment costs by scenario

Four scenarios in different constellations have been modelled, including a full FTTH/B coverage scenario. Depending on the mix of technologies deployed, these scenarios will cost between 51 billion EUR and 229 billion EUR.

These amounts, whilst certainly substantial, are within the expected range and therefore come as a confirmation of the ambitious nature of the broadband objectives of the DAE.

NGA Costs model

In order to build our theoretical model of the costs of reaching the DA goals, IDATE started by drawing up several assumptions about �overlapping� in each country with the aim of establishing the �net� number of FTTx homes passed, and thus the effective level of NGA coverage. Consolidating this in the EU27 gives a net NGA coverage rate of 41% of European households in late-2011. Among the four fixed NGA architectures considered (FTTH/B, FTTLA+DOCSIS 3.0, FTTN+VDSL and FTTx/LAN), regarding our estimates at that time, FTTH/B accounted for 22%, FTTN+VDSL for 25% and FTTLA+DOCSIS3.0 for 50% of the European NGA coverage.

Using these coverage estimates as a baseline, IDATE modelled the investment required for each of the 27 Member States to reach the broadband objectives of the Commission's DA. We also took into account, nevertheless, for each Member State, the national broadband or ultra-fast broadband plans already launched, with their associated objectives of coverage up to 2020.

We then considered no duplication of infrastructure in our cost model. Indeed, the model's output shows the minimum cost of reaching the DA targets by rolling out one single network per coverage area.

Roland Montagne
Director of the Telecom Business Unit at IDATE

Visit our blog to read the full article

N�633 - Crises and rebounds in the games industry -

2012-12-11

Each year IDATE conducts studies on video games and accompanies enthusiastic project developers who rub shoulders with a market that will make them no concessions.

It is now nearly 12 years that I have observed the sector with the eyes of a player and economist. We have dealt with all the issues that have made the news: we are going to cover our third home console marketing campaign, in the early 2000s we studied massively multi-player games, the advent of video games on mobile phones, then Occasional Gamer, in-game advertising, the App Store phenomenon, Serious Gaming, cloud gaming, games on smart TV, social gaming... In the background, dematerialisation remains the common denominator for all of them.

Alongside these studies, we have helped nearly forty project carriers by providing expertise regarding the techno-economic feasibility of their games, the industrial positioning of their company, their internationalisation strategy, construction of their business model, design of their outline business strategy...

These 12 years in practice enable me to draw some conclusions on what we are experiencing today as a crisis in the growth of the on-line games sector and a more acute crisis that could become a reality for certain traditional actors (those who develop games on physical media).

Video gaming is in crisis and the companies affected are not the least known: Gameforge, BigPoint, Zynga, but also THQ, Sega, Turbine to name only those... and I am not mentioning the myriad of small companies not really known for the big hit, which were formed to develop games for mobile phones, tablets or on Facebook and which are struggling to obtain a return on quite modest investments in a market where supply is abundant and it is difficult to differentiate oneself.

What are the causes of this crisis, beyond the effects of increased competition? I count four:

1.   The video game evolves in phases of growth and decline determined by the life cycle of the hardware. Game consoles register their activity in physical cycles of at least six years. We are currently experiencing a downward cycle, a transition phase between two generations of home consoles characterised by income from the sale of games for these machines down by 12% between 2011 and 2012 and by 20% for the turnover generated by console sales.

2.   We observe massive player support for Free2Play on smartphones, tablets, social networks, in games on browsers or MMOs and soon on smart TVs. Controlled inflation of the price of games for home and handheld consoles maintains the income for this segment but basically players demonstrate to us that the model of the future is Free2Play, of which these are some eloquent examples:
�   The British studio BossAlien published CSR Racing and quickly recorded a monthly turnover of $12 million,
�   According one of its directors, the Norwegian studio Supercell recorded a turnover of $500,000 per day with Clash of Clans,
�   When there is no income, there is always the level of "monthly active users" that shows the attractiveness of games carried by the F2P model - 32 million for League of Legend from Riots Games (no profit conversion rates available), 50 million for Farmville 2 (with, according to observers, a conversion rate of around 2%).
�   An unprecedented wave of MMO games is passing from a subscription payment model to Free2Play: Aion from NC Soft, Age of Conan from Funcom, Star Wars, The Old Republic from EA, Gotham City Impostors from Warner Interactive, DC Universe from SOE, City of Heroes Freedom from NC Soft�
Not to subscribe to this model supported by a large majority of players may constitute a medium-term risk for publishers.

3.   In the on-line games market segment the crisis generates its effect on the first generation of developer-publishers. After a successful first game, these companies have recorded considerable and sometimes dramatic growth as regards their income and size of workforce. They now encounter difficulties with their "second game" which struggles to achieve the support of players who had been seduced by the first. However, the on-line games market segment will continue to record a two-figure growth up until 2016. IDATE estimates that the on-line games market will increase from �15 billion at the end of 2012 to more than 23 at the end of 2016 and will eventually represent a little less than 30% of the global market which could rise to �60 billion. If the market continues to grow at that rate it is value creation that will very largely make up for value loss. This observation underlies reasoning on the, as yet inexhaustible, capacity of the Internet to allow innovative game experiences.

4.   In the on-line games environment, the operational risk of a game rests synthetically on four elements: content, business model, technical services, marketing and communications. These four pillars necessary for success rest themselves on new skills: community management, collection, processing and analysis of usage data, business and pricing strategy, industrial intelligence... These tasks are often underestimated by development studios more inclined to create content than conceive its publishing, marketing etc.

Thus, the economic rule "adapt or perish" was never more true than today in the games industry, and never has this rule applied as rapidly as today. Production times for terminals are being reduced on many platforms (mobile phones, tablets, social networking and browsers): as a result, the "time to market" is very short as, at times, is the time that separates the developer from failure.

This statement is difficult to hear: the developer, as Peter Molyneux said so well in a recent interview on Games Industry International, "is not supposed to make games for money. He is also reluctant to talk about monetisation." The games sector is recent and, since the industrialisation of the development market segment in the mid-90s, the job of the studio has been to create a games experience, not to take on board its commercialisation, carry out its marketing or pricing. This role is still regularly seen as falling to the editor. Today you, large and small developers, should know that that era is past and that your job also consists in selling, if not in integrating upstream of the production chain some thoughts relative to the marketing of the game.

A few reasons for bounce-back

If the crisis is real, the video games sector knows how to rebuild its declining segments, renew entertainment experiences, innovate; blaze a trail beyond the beaten track. This character trait offers some grounds for hoping to see the sector rebound in the very short term.

Here are four good reasons for bounce-back:

1.   The next generation of home consoles

I am not dealing at length with the arrival of new home consoles that will boost the industry and, in 2015, hardware included, represent 40% of its income.

2.   The promise of games on mobile platforms

Neither am I referring in detail to what games represent on mobile platforms, smartphones and tablets that seem particularly well-behaved in terms of market and complementary, even symbiotic, uses. This segment will hold a share of some 15 % of the market up until 2016 as against some 11 % of the income accruing to games on handheld consoles.

I will, on the other hand, insist on my two crazes:

3.   The smart TV game

The arrival of the television connection changes the conditions of use for this terminal. Potentially it introduces a level of interactivity that makes it no longer a passive-consumption device. The connection promises enriched experiences regardless of the nature of the content - audiovisual, social, commercial, entertainment or informative.
In this context, the video game could be an accelerator for the market development of interactive applications on smart TV. It will demonstrate its effectiveness by providing a convincing user experience (with an interaction-immersion accessory, voice recognition and motion detection), based on a viable business model.
Games on on-line TV already seem to be taking five directions:
i) The downloading of occasional games on the set-top box from the ISP. In France, Free offers such a service on its Revolution box in partnership with TransGaming:
ii)    Games synchronised with live-broadcast audiovisual programmes. Visiware, (through its PlayAlong offer) synchronises the television viewer, who can be a virtual contestant, with more than 800 games and live-broadcast programmes worldwide.
iii)    The deployment of an application used by the television manufacturer or by a third party such as Google: EA has just announced, and it went more-or-less unnoticed, that two of these occasional games were available on Samsung's smart TV and controllable by the South Korean company's Galaxy phones. These are Game of Life and Monopoly.
iv).   Cloud gaming is a technology that can home-deliver streamed games via the Internet on a connectable TV. The games consoles were also quick in response as Gaikai, one of the most promising cloud gaming service providers was acquired by Sony Computer Entertainment in early July for 380 million USD.
v)    Access to games via social networks: Facebook is a platform of omnipresent coverage, found on most connectable devices (tablets, smartphones and computers). It is also available on smart TV and will provide access to the games catalogue that it offers on computer.

These guidelines lead to or induce convergence, better collaboration between the television actors (channels, programme producers), telecommunications and Internet actors (Internet access and service providers), consumer electronics manufacturers and video games actors. It operates at the technological, content and economic level and in any event it opens a new market segment, especially with the arrival of EA.

4.   The ubiquitous or continuous game

Today, one can distinguish three types of ubiquity in video games.
�   The first is a ubiquity of service: the ranking, challenges, friends' games list etc. are ubiquitous. We find this feature on Game Center or Facebook.
�   The second is a ubiquity attached to games. Boostr, developer and publisher of the Urban Rivals game with 25 million players, sets its strategy on ubiquity. This game is available on social networks, tablets, smartphones and on its website. I have single access available, which gives me the possibility of playing indiscriminately on any one of these four single platforms that I pick up according to my wants and the terminal that I have at hand. I also play Football Manager quite a lot, but I open a different game on each platform, which breaks the continuity of the game experience.
�   The third is a ubiquity carried by connected objects. This ubiquity took shape in October 2011 under the game name Activision Skylanders. This game is based on action figures equipped with NFC technology and interacting with the home console and the game. These small figures are placed on a pedestal and are recognised and displayed on the screen. They keep in memory the experience gained during the game until the next connection to another console. 30 million figures have been sold to date worldwide.

In conclusion, video gaming is experiencing successive crises, which, in the end, are technological and industrial adjustments related to its strong ability to innovate and recreate: to me these adjustments seem necessary for a sector that, finally, seems soon set to reach economic maturity.

Laurent Michaud
Head of Consumer Electronics & Digital Entertainment at IDATE

Download the full article here or read it on our blog

N�632 - 1OAK Financial Group -

2012-11-26

In the wake of the DigiWorld Summit held in Montpellier last week, 1OAK Financial Group - �1OAK� � a fast growing alternative asset manager, announced its membership of IDATE�s DigiWorld Institute

By joining the 40 companies that are already members of IDATE, 1OAK plans to actively participate in the discussions and debates on the annual DigiWorld Institute programme that take place in Brussels, London and Paris. 1OAK also aims to draw on the expertise of IDATE�s specialist teams of consultants and analysts, particularly on the topics of �game changers: Mobility everywhere and Mobile data - Social network technologies - Big data - Smart cities and Digital living.�

Fran�ois Barrault, Chairman of IDATE sees the membership of 1OAK as "a clear indication of the attractiveness of IDATE�s DigiWorld project, which includes the internationalisation of the institute and the enhancement of its think tank activites for digital players.� Yves Gassot, CEO, welcomed �this membership, which should be accompanied by fruitful exchanges and collaboration with IDATE teams, strengthening our presence in the eyes of international investment players."

Emmanuel Lumineau, 1OAK Founding partner, is looking forward to engaging with IDATE, its team and its members �to exchange and debate with the technology leaders on the fast-changing digital environment that requires a new business model and a new investment approach.�

About 1OAK Financial Group

1OAK Financial Group is a fast-growing Alternative Asset Manager founded in 2009 by an innovative and experienced team of European Investment Bankers and Private Equity CEOs. The group operates in Europe through its London-based Offices. As part of its growth plans and diversification from the strategies launched in 2009-2010, 1OAK has been raising Private Equity funds focusing in Internet/Mobile Late Stage Pre-IPO (the �New Digital Age �) and Green Real Estate / Renewable Infrastructure (�Green Capital�).

www.1oakgroup.com

N�631 - NFC & mobile Payment -

2012-11-23

Recently, IDATE has published its report on "NFC & mobile payment" which presents the current situation of the mobile payment and mobile NFC technology markets. It analyzes the prospects for the market from a technical and economic point of view, by looking at challenges facing the economic models in key areas, including: automation, commerce, advertising, public services and transport.

"One of the major problems for NFC on mobile devices is how to define viable business models for a particular type of application in which the different stakeholders can find some level of financial balance", comments Julien Gaudemer, project manager for the NFC study. He insists:"In numerous initiatives, obstacles often lie in the difficulties local stakeholders encounter in defining a stable cooperation framework for offering services to users."

Complex business models

A different business model often exists based on application type (essentially payment and transport) and geographical region. Relations between stakeholders can vary from region to region. The types of stakeholders may also vary (different operators from one country to the next, for instance).

For transport applications, the business model seems relatively balanced between the costs incurred by NFC on mobile devices and the direct revenues that carriers can generate from NFC. These revenues are first used to cover the costs of NFC for mobile usage. Since the different transport networks do not all have standardized NFC infrastructures, each carrier must, in principle, develop its own NFC mobile transport application.

For payment applications, the business model may be more complex since, unlike the transport ecosystem which is relatively closed (a single entity manages the various transport activities), payment applications require many different players who must cooperate in order to offer an NFC payment service. While most already maintain relations to offer traditional card payment services, NFC incurs new costs, particularly for banks (application, TSM, operators where necessary). These costs may then be passed on to customers (particularly private users), although this may be dissuasive. However, other strategies can be adopted to cover the technology cost, such as advertising on mobile
devices.

For other applications, the business model is simple, in which service providers invest in a mobile application and tags, and then recover the revenues, usually indirectly.

An overcrowded ecosystem

Compared with traditional payment methods and transport ticketing (credit/debit cards or NFC travel cards), the business model for NFC applications is different. More stakeholders are present in the ecosystem. This is explained by the fact that mobile usage requires the presence of certain players: manufacturers of mobile devices, mobile operators and SIM card manufacturers, primarily. Alongside these are other stakeholders, such as TSMs, most of which were previously smart card manufacturers who converted the value of a physical product into an intangible service. This ecosystem mainly differs from non-NFC mobile payment in that there are fewer technical issues and the conflict between stakeholders is not as fierce. Some players, such as chip or mobile device manufacturers, do not even enter the arena.
The NFC mobile ecosystem therefore comprises a multitude of stakeholders, each jostling to get ahead in a particular application. This is mainly the case with payment applications which can generate substantial revenues and consequently attract many businesses. Some stakeholders in this ecosystem have invested fully in NFC technology and in rolling out initiatives, while others seem more cautious, particularly Web giants such as Apple, Facebook and Amazon.

Competing technical architectures

The fact that the ecosystem comprises a multitude of stakeholders, and since some have some clearly chosen a technical architecture (SE type) that is most financially viable for them, conflicts arise between them. These technical architectures only affect so-called �secure� applications such as payment and transport.

Operators fully support SEs in the SIM card since it enables them to generate revenues from renting secure space on the SIM card. Service providers are more opposed to this architecture since they are seeking to minimize costs and have as few intermediaries as possible. This is the case for Google, which bases its Google Wallet on an SE built into the mobile device.

Manufacturers of mobile devices are caught in the middle:

on the one hand, they want the built-in SE they have inserted in their devices to be
promoted via applications (and initiatives);

on the other hand, they must satisfy the demands of operators who prefer the SIM card
and are mostly responsible for selling the mobile devices of manufacturers.

The same is true for manufacturers of NFC chips and SIM cards who are looking to please all of their potential customers, and who must therefore support initiatives based on the SIM-card, as well as on other types of SE to avoid focusing on a single market segment.

Julien GAUDEMER
Consultant at IDATE
j.gaudemer@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article.

N�630 - M2M -

2012-11-22

Recently, IDATE has published its annual M2M in-depth market report which analyses the overriding trends and changes taking place in the M2M market around the globe. It explores the driving forces behind the market�s growth and transformation, including an examination of the chief market trends, plus volume and value forecasts up to 2016 by geographical area, by country (China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK and USA). It also presents the quantitative evolution of the cellular modules, by application and by networking technology.

"The M2M market is growing very fast but its development is not spread out homogeneously over the verticals markets", says Samuel Ropert, project manager and senior consultant at IDATE. He adds: "Take the automotive industry worldwide: in volume we predict an average growth rate (AGR) of 40% until 2016. In parallel, the Consumer Electronics industry has an AGR of 15% and will represent barely a third of the M2M volume for the automotive industry in 2016"

Principal findings

The M2M market is growing very fast. In 2012, the cellular market is expected to represent 140 million modules worldwide for a total market of 22 billion EUR (of which 5.1 billion EUR for connectivity). The annual growth of the M2M market was around 14% in value and 36% in volume. Most revenues will come from software and IT services (around two-thirds of total market value). The world M2M market should grow by 30% in volume, to represent almost 370 million modules in 2015. Asia-Pacific should dominate Europe and North America in volume only. Europe should still lead in value, followed by North America.

Over the next few years, the M2M market will clearly be driven by the three key verticals of automotive, consumer electronics and utilities. However, while they will theoretically drive the market, some barriers could obstruct growth in the M2M automotive and utilities sectors. The global downturn does not explain the trend entirely. In the short term, some applications in these key verticals are recurrently delayed (as with the eCall regulation in Europe, and high-scale utilities deployments) and have a potential impact of the traditional M2M market. Moreover, the utilities market is now seen as less attractive with business opportunity being somewhat limited. In fact, most smart meters will be connected to the cellular network through a concentrator and large utilities players will try to leverage their negotiation power (quasi-monopsonic positioning) to drive down the unit price. Finally, multiple M2M users are adopting a �wait and see� position regarding the world economic situation.

The embedded SIM (known as eSIM) has animated the debate on M2M and beyond. The principle of the embedded SIM refers to SIM cards welded into the modules at manufacturing and the capacity for remote activation and provisioning over-the-air (OTA). It provides overall the possibility of switching from one carrier to another one. It has been designed for meeting client expectations (industrial performance improvements) but some hurdles exist to the eSIM implementation in the M2M industry. The eSIM could be a strong driver for market development but also a shoot in the telcos� arm.

The telcos are still looking for business opportunity beyond connectivity. M2M offers
them attractive opportunities, as, despite low and declining ARPU, projects offer high lifetime value, reduced churn rate and average deals representing thousands of SIM cards. Connectivity alone should represent 8.2 billion EUR in 2015 worldwide (3 billion EUR in Europe) and more than 5.7% of mobile data revenues for European telcos. MVNOs are being pushed out of the market and are therefore repositioning themselves as tool providers (platform providers), while module providers are challenged to break even in a market where unit prices are falling.

Samuel ROPERT
Senior Consultant at DigiWorld IDATE
s.ropert@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article.

N�628 - Radio Spectrum -

2012-10-31

The continuous explosion of mobile data traffic is fuelling demand for more mobile spectrum, the world over. IDATE has just published the 6th edition of its study �Radio Spectrum� which provides its readers with an overview of major trends in radio spectrum management in Europe, the USA and Asia-Pacific, this report reviews the main issues raised in WRC-12, the regulatory environment, spectrum refarming and new bands, and spectrum valuation. It features the spectrum database with details of the regulatory situation and updates on spectrum auctions.

�The World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC) which is the place for international negotiation of spectrum allocation took place in Geneva in January and February 2012", says Fr�d�ric Pujol, Head of the Mobile & Spectrum practice. He adds: "At WRC-07, the band 790-862 MHz had been allocated to the mobile service in Europe and Africa (ITU Region 1) and was identified for IMT (International Mobile Communications) at worldwide level. The decision of WRC-12 to launch studies for a second Digital Dividend in Region 1 (Europe, Africa) is good news for the mobile broadband sector in Europe. This new frequency band could match with the 700 MHz Digital Dividend identified for the Asia-Pacific region. Harmonisation with other geographical areas would enable significant economies of scale for LTE devices and would facilitate international roaming."

Spectrum trends and critical issues

Regulatory trends
The European Commission together with all Members States will work on the following concrete actions up to 2015: ensuring that at least 1200 MHz spectrum is identified to address the increasing demand for wireless data traffic and that the need for additional harmonised spectrum bands is assessed.

New spectrum sharing schemes should be used in the coming years as they can enhance the overall spectrum efficiency. The FCC and the European Commission are pushing for more spectrum sharing: either through more unlicenced bands or through more sharing of frequency bands between users. Solutions such as Authorised Shared Access (ASA) represent an interesting evolution of the regulatory framework and could accelerate the use of frequency bands with limited harmonisation such as the 2.3 GHz band.

We consider that white space technologies today represent niche markets and that they cannot be used to provide mobile service on a commercial basis in the UHF band. The concept could be extended to other frequency bands where sharing with incumbent users could be easier.

Existing spectrum for mobile broadband
In Western Europe, spectrum allocated to mobile broadband is generally 590 MHz covering multiple harmonised frequency bands: 800 MHz (FDD � 2 x 30 MHz), 900 MHz (FDD - 2x35 MHz), 1800 MHz (FDD - 2x75 MHz), 2100 MHz (FDD - 2x60 MHz), 2100 MHz (TDD - 15+20 MHz), 2600 MHz (FDD - 2x70 MHz), 2600 MHz (TDD - 50 MHz).
In the USA, a total of 413.5 MHz of spectrum is available for mobile use.

Spectrum refarming is accelerating
In order to maximise the use of the scarce resources, more frequency bands are being refarmed in order to be used by the LTE technology and replace 2G or 3G systems. AWS (Advanced Wireless Spectrum � 1.7/2.1 GHz) and 1900 MHz in the USA, 1800 MHz across Europe and Asia-Pacific are being used by LTE. This process will lead to accelerated shut-down of 2G networks, as has been recently seen in South Korea.

Spectrum needs
Regulatory bodies and ministries around the world are looking for freeing spectrum used by public users to provide additional capacity to mobile broadband. The objectives are close to 500 MHz of additional spectrum for mobile broadband in the five coming years. In the USA, the FCC has defined a spectrum deficit of 275 MHz in 2014 based upon its mobile traffic growth estimate.

LTE spectrum fragmentation and the importance of band plans
Spectrum aggregation and Supplemental Downlink (SDL): supplemental downlink uses additional unpaired spectrum to enhance the downlink capability of mobile broadband networks. Mobile operators such as AT&T and Orange are currently investigating SDL as a solution to meet traffic demands.

Digital Dividend
In Japan, the 700 MHz band has been awarded by the Ministry of Communications to KDDI, NTT DOCOMO and eMobile, enabling them to roll out LTE in a sub-1 GHz frequency band.
The Asia-Pacific Telecommunity (APT) has finalised a harmonised band plan for 698-806 MHz for the Region 3 (Asia-Pacific). It is expected to be approved by ITU shortly. As in the APT band plan, 2x45 MHz of spectrum will be available.
The APT band plans include two versions, the first one compatible with Europe and the second one which would allow for worldwide operation.
The allocation of the 800 MHz band is going on in Europe with LTE commercial services expected grow quickly in 2013.

New resources for mobile broadband
New frequency bands are currently being or will be allocated in the years to come to mobile services and IMT technologies. In Europe, the new bands for mobile terrestrial systems, identified during WRC-07, are 450-470 MHz, 790-862 MHz, 2300-2400 MHz and 3400-3600 MHz.
New frequency bands for Mobile Broadband: L-Band, 2.3 GHz, 3.6-3.8 GHz�

The L-Band (1452 MHz to 1492 MHz) is widely available today across Europe as well as in other such countries as Canada or Brazil and could provide SDL for inter-band carrier aggregation.

2.3 GHz: this frequency band is used by TDD networks in Asia and could be used as a supplemental downlink resource in Europe

3.4-3.8 GHz: currently used by WiMAX networks which will migrate to TD-LTE.

Spectrum/licences valuation
The latest auctions confirm the trends identified last year with digital dividend spectrum (800 MHz band) sold for EUR 40-80 cents per MHz per pop.
For the 2.6 GHz spectrum, the valuation ranges from EUR 0.2 to 4.6 cents per MHz per pop.

Fr�d�ric PUJOL
Head of Mobile & Spectrum Practice at IDATE
f.pujol@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article.

N�627 - Satellite Ultra-Broadband -

2012-10-29

IDATE has just published its study �Satellite Ultra-Broadband in Europe & Africa� which explores the latest developments in broadband and ultra-fast broadband markets in Europe and Africa. After a detailed examination of the dynamics of these areas, in both fixed and mobile markets, the report delivers strategic and figure-backed responses to the question of the current and future role of satellite in the race to deploy broadband and ultra-fast broadband. The report comes with its own database including the set of indicators analyzed for all the areas studied.

Maxime Baudry, project manager of this study and co-header of the satellite practice at DigiWorld IDATE, shares his point of view about the actual situation of the Satellite Ultra-Broadband:

�Satellite technology has made enormous progress in recent years, boosting the average downlink speed from 3 Mbps in 2008 to 10-18 Mbps in 2012, and raising traffic caps from 2 GB to 10-20 GB (in some cases even unlimited). It thus seems set to even tackle DSL gray zones, which only a few years ago seemed inaccessible.�

He adds: �On the ultra-fast broadband front, however, satellite is lagging behind: while large-scale rollouts of FTTx and LTE, and even LTE-Advanced between 2012 and 2020 will offer observed download speeds of 30-70 Mbps (and even 200-300 Mbps with LTE-Advanced), the most advanced satellite developments make it possible to supply �only� 50 Mbps, and even then not before 2015 at the earliest. To be able to offer such speeds, satellite technology may well switch to frequency bands even higher than the Ka band.�

Africa, a new growth opportunity?

Africa�s fixed broadband market is still extremely limited, with an average density of 3.4% of households in the region at end-2011.

With limited fixed infrastructures, operators are focusing all their efforts on mobile broadband, often only deployed in the most profitable urban areas.

Over the past three years, however, the region has seen major rollouts of underwater cables, boosting subscriber speeds. Africa�s capacity at end-2011 is estimated at 22 Tbps versus 4 Tbps at end-2009.

Satellite ultra-broadband remains a tough market in most countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, where barriers to entry remain very high, such as low ARPUs, poor literacy rates (30% to 40% of the population), low electrification (10% of the rural population) and low PC penetration (often below 5% of households)

Extremely high equipment prices caused by high customs barriers remain a major handicap.

Against this backdrop, only a few countries seem to present any real short-term potential: South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria and countries in North Africa.

Promising market outlooks

IDATE estimates that between 2012 and 2016 the number of satellite broadband subscribers in Europe will increase by 29% annually.

Africa will post the sharpest growth, a region where the telecoms infrastructure is much more restricted than in Europe. We estimate that the launch of solutions costing 20-30 EUR a month in Africa, such as YahClick and IP Easy, are likely to attract a tier-one clientele with incomes well above the majority of the population, eager to acquire a fixed broadband access solution that is superior to traditional landline connection and often at a cheaper price (excluding the expensive equipment cost which, at around 600 EUR, is inflated by customs barriers). However, areas of uncertainty remain in this market, especially over the future technical and economic performance of fixed infrastructures after the deployment of numerous underwater cable and terrestrial backbone projects funded by the World Bank.

Eastern Europe, the market that seemed to offer most potential at the outset, has failed to take off, with subscriber bases remaining very limited. Several reasons explain this failure: it is a tough market with extremely low ARPUs, making it hard for satellite services operators to make sufficient profits. Also, most countries have invested in mobile infrastructures (LTE already deployed in many countries, including Hungary, Lithuania and Poland), sidelining satellite. Lastly, operator distribution networks revolve around small business operations, while in Western Europe they usually rely on major operators such as Orange, SFR, Swisscom and Deutsche Telekom.

Western Europe has not seen very high growth either. Two countries, France and Germany, continue to make up most of the subscriber base, while operators have managed to boost subscriber numbers quickly via government programs to reduce the digital divide, such as Avanti in Scotland and Eutelsat in Italy. The German market though does now seem to be losing subscribers to other technologies, particularly LTE deployed in rural parts of the country.

Maxime BAUDRY
Project manager
m.baudry@idate.org

Visit our blog to read the full article.

N�626 - Smartphones in Business -

2012-10-24

On the occasion of the R�seaux & T�l�coms Expo 2012 in Paris, IDATE unveils the latest results coming from its exclusive field survey on smartphones uses in business. The smartphone has become a must-have digital device for the public, and has also taken over the business world, both directly (employer provided) and indirectly (with Bring Your Own Device). Our exclusive survey, conducted simultaneously in the three largest European markets � France, Germany and the United Kingdom, examines the extent of direct and indirect smartphone usage for business purposes and analyzes usage, requirements and employees' perceptions of their smartphones at work.

" We took this initiative after having observed a lack of accurate data on smartphone usage in the corporate world, unlike the consumer market for which a growing number of surveys, observatories and indexes exist � and so provide solid figures on trends in that market", comments Anne Causse, Director of studies project manager for this survey. She adds: "If this new survey is focused chiefly on the business market, in the traditional sense of the term , the current Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) phenomenon requires us to adopt a broader view."

Business market momentum masked by personal equipment

Consumers� desire for the latest smartphones has translated into personal equipment levels that are now double business equipment levels.

Equipment rates in the business market are nevertheless progressing at a very healthy pace and, in 2012 alone, 10% to 15% of employees in Germany, France and the UK are expected to be equipped with a new smartphone by their company.

The UK, which is home to the highest equipment levels and the most advanced hybrid mobile strategies, is proving a veritable living lab for developments that are likely to catch on in neighbouring markets in the near future.

BYOD: acceleration in overlaps of the business and personal spheres

Because many users began with a personal smartphone before having one supplied or required by their company, BYOD (bring your own device) is now very prevalent � involving half of all those with their own personal smartphone, and this in all countries.

Whether supplied directly by the company or indirectly through the development of BYOD, depending on the country, between three and four out of 10 employees report using a smartphone (business and/or personal) for business purposes.

Equipment: top consumer market brands benefiting from BYOD

The surveys enables to:

To identify the share of brands and OS for the business market and for the BYOD

To compare the growth momentum for smartphones and tablets

IDATE�s classification distinguishes key applications

We have translated the different ways in which smartphones make it into the workplace into three usage profiles: �business subscribers� whose company pays their subscription, "combiners" who, although they have an enterprise smartphone, also use their personal smartphone for business purposes, and "unofficial users" who compensate for the lack of company-supplied equipment by using their own resources, both hardware and subscription plan, either occasionally or all the time for business purposes.

Productivity and security: central to changing behaviour in the workplace

More than 8 out of 10 users report direct and indirect productivity gains thanks to the use of a smartphone at work� but one in two also complain about the stress and invasive nature of being �always on�.
Although very much in demand, smartphones in the workplace nonetheless remain a real security risk for sensitive business data (need for greater awareness, protection mechanisms weak or lacking, etc.).

Anne CAUSSE
Consultant at DigiWorld by IDATE
a.causse@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article.

N�625 - Inventory of FTTH/B in Europe -

2012-10-18

Europe (EU-35)[1] reported a solid 16% increase in the number of FTTH/B subscribers during first half 2012. FTTH/B coverage continues to progress fast in Europe with a growth of 16% in the period. There were nearly 5.95 million FTTH/B subscribers in the EU-35 at mid-2012, and around 32 million homes passed.

Main European economies are now on tracks for FTTH/B: Turkey presents a 82% growth in terms of subscribers in first half 2012, and other countries, even considered as mature markets show very interesting growth rates (+31% in the Netherlands, +23% in Norway). Spain is progressing with 44% increase in the number of subscribers and then entering the FTTH Global Ranking[2]. Another country is entering this ranking at mid-2012: Luxembourg, where the government have very ambitious objectives that will probably be reached on time (80% of the households passed with 100 Mbps at end 2013, 100% at end 2015).

Among CIS countries, because of its specific demographic features, Russia leads the way in terms of FTTH/B subscribers and homes passed � and the potential of the Russian market is huge, with 5.2 million FTTH/B subscribers and 15.8 million homes passed at mid-2012. Ukraine is also home of more than a million FTTH/B subscribers (+85% increase during first semester 2012), and we expect to see new players becoming involved in FTTH/B deployments in the near future.

As in previous years, IDATE has been commissioned by the FTTH Council Europe to provide an overview of the status of FTTH/B rollouts across Europe at mid-2012. To date, IDATE has identified around 260 FTTH/B projects in the EU-35.
The first type of player to become involved in FTTH/B deployments was alternative carriers which singlehandedly account for 51% of FTTH/B homes passed in Europe. Alternative carriers have performed rollouts in France, Italy, Germany, Sweden and in Eastern Europe (Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, and Bulgaria).

We include cable companies in this category as they are often involved in large-scale FTTB network rollouts � with examples that include Numericable in France. Cablecos have the advantage of not having to negotiate building-by-building to access homes since the coaxial outlet is already installed plus, in a great many instances, the civil engineering to pull the fibre to the foot of the building has already been performed.

Another category of stakeholder is local authorities and regional power companies (which are often owned by public authorities). While this category represents only 11% of homes passed for fibre at mid-2012, it accounts for the largest number of FTTH/B projects, most of which are small scale ones � covering only a local territory. Their involvement will probably increase in other countries such as Italy and France.

The other category of player worth mentioning is incumbent carriers which account for 37% of FTTH/B homes passed in Europe. Virtually all of Europe�s incumbent carriers are either now involved in FTTH/B rollouts, are gearing up to it or are in the planning stages. The increase in the part of incumbents in the number of homes passed is partly due to the involvement of Spanish Telefonica. Even those who originally opted for an FTTN+VDSL solution, such as KPN, Swisscom and Deutsche Telecom, are turning their attention to FTTH � in many cases as a result of the growing competitive pressure created by cable companies� and local authorities� fibre initiatives.

In the UK, BT has changed its FTTH strategy several times. After having announced in 2011 a very ambitious objective in terms of FTTH coverage (2.5 million HP at end 2012), it finally turned back afterwards and decided to expand FTTN to FTTH only "on demand". This solution will be available in Spring 2013, after a two-phases pilot.

There has been a noticeable change in the list of leading countries during first half 2012: France is now ahead from Sweden. Indeed, excluding Russia and Ukraine, which lead the FTTH/B market in terms of subscribers and homes/buildings passed thanks to their demographic make-up (respectively 5.2 and 1 million FTTH/B subscribers), France now counts more than 764,000 FTTH/B subscribers (+15% between December 2011 and June 2012) when Sweden stand at 688,000 subscribers (+6% in the same period). The Swedish market is beginning to show signs of large maturity and the potential for further growth is less and less important from one semester to another in the country.

However, Scandinavian countries, and notably Sweden and Norway, still lead the way in Europe in terms of penetration rate � with 40.3% and 67.1%, respectively. Nevertheless it is now in Eastern Europe where we found also high penetration rates: Czech Republic with 45.3%, Hungary with 37.4%, Russia with 33.3% and Lithuania with 29.5%.But the situation across Europe as a whole is still quite disparate as countries like Italy or France are still reporting low penetration rates (12.7% and 12.2%, respectively, lower than the EU-35 average which reaches 18.6%).

Regarding the technology deployed, Ethernet is still players� first choice across the EU-39, and represented 78% of all FTTH/B rollouts at mid-2012.

As concerns network architecture, FTTB still accounted for 62% of rollouts at mid-2012. Players are favouring an FTTB configuration as it allows them to avoid the issues that come with installing fibre on private property, and especially MDUs � i.e. having to negotiate with each property owner.

Valerie CHAILLOU
Director of Studies, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE
v.chaillou@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article.

[1] The term EU-35 refers to the EU-27 countries �Cyprus + Andorra, Croatia, Iceland, Israel, Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland and Turkey.
The EU-39 refers to the EU-35 + the four CIS Countries: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Russia.

[2] The FTTH Global Ranking is based on the FTTH Council's definition of FTTH/B. It includes both Fiber to the Home (FTTH), and Fiber to the Building (FTTB). The Ranking covers all countries with at least 200,000 households where the penetration of FTTH/B has reached 1% of the total number of homes.

N�623 - Focus on the US telecom market -

2012-10-15

The United States� telecommunications services industry posted consolidated sales of EUR 239 billion in 2011. Compare this figure to those of the related television services industry (116 billion) and the European telecommunications sector (248 billion for the EU-27). For the past two years or more, mobile services revenues (126 billion) have surpassed those from broadband and data (53 billion) and the shrinking fixed telephony segment (60 billion) combined.
Like most Western countries, the industry has experienced major upheavals in recent years. For decades US telephony had been essentially structured around a private monopoly. In 1982, as the result of an antitrust lawsuit, AT&T agreed to divest itself of its regional companies. It preserved its domestic and international long-distance activities but then had to fend off aggressive competition in those markets from MCI and WorldCom, while the regional companies remained very dominant in their local markets. Ultimately the heightened competition in long distance and the overinvestment that led to the bursting of the bubble (and the historic collapse of WorldCom) in the early 90s paved the way for the Baby Bells. After multiple mergers, including the ultimate absorption of MCI and AT&T, the Baby Bells grew up into the two market leaders: Verizon and AT&T.

While both American and European markets are hemorrhaging landlines (-9% per year in the US) and the related phone revenues, there are at least two differences on the US side:

The influence of cable, which is available to some 90% of households: In just five years, cable�s market share of new broadband subscribers has leapt from 40% to more than 80%. AT&T and Verizon are only competing where they have made massive investments to rebuild their access networks (U-verse for AT&T, mainly with hybrid FTTN technology, and FiOS for Verizon, with FTTH/B). Note that ARPU for these two operators� triple play bundles in these areas is over USD 140, in stark contrast with the ARPU of triple play offerings in Europe . It is possible that the difference in television spending between the two regions is one of the particular challenges European operators face in achieving a satisfactory return on their FTTH investments. For many years Europe seemed ahead of the rest in broadband development with the success of ADSL, but cable�s ability to offer ever-higher data speeds (thanks to Docsis 3.0) and Verizon�s and AT&T�s newly built FTTx networks have turned the tables when it comes to super-fast broadband.

Strong mobile revenue growth: For a long time the mobile segment in the United States seemed to lag behind its European counterpart in terms of penetration rates, handicapped by the presence of multiple competing standards (CDMA, GSM, iDEN). But here too the tables have turned over the past two to three years. Verizon Wireless has established itself as the world leader in 4G (with more than 10 million LTE users as of Q2 2012), followed by AT&T, Sprint and MetroPCS rollouts now. Plus, while Europe�s revenues are shrinking by 3% to 4% per year, the US market continues to grow in value at a pace of about 5% annually. Several factors can explain this difference. First is the impact of the macroeconomic situation on the markets in the south of Europe, which has resulted in plummeting revenues in Greece, Spain and Italy. In France, the more recent entry of low-cost operator Free has further accentuated the downward trend in that market. But even in Germany revenues have slipped the past several years. In the States, on top of a strong subscriber growth rate (+6% per year), the increase in data revenue spurred by the smartphone boom has more than offset the drop in per-minute prices for mobile calling. This is much less true in Europe, where competition is much more competitive and the attrition rate is much higher , driving down prices. Thus in the one case we see ARPU continuing to trend upward (especially for Verizon and AT&T), while in the other case ARPUs seem doomed to slide further.

In these differences we can see why the markets� valuation of telecom securities varies depending on whether they are looking at the big European operators or the North American market leaders.
Are US operators benefiting from a lack of competition, while Europe is handicapped by its more than 90 active mobile operators (EU-27)? This is a much-discussed point. According to the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) the US market, which has four national operators and a handful of others with more limited coverage , is less concentrated than most national markets in the Old World, and much more so than the European market as a whole (if the entire 27-country Union were considered a true single market). Furthermore, if you consider the advantage of the economies of scale in a market as large as AT&T and Verizon have (each with more than 100 million customers), the absence of any truly pan-European operators seems to be a handicap.
Overall, though American operators too must face the major changes of an all-IP world where services and applications are shifting to OTT players, this market�s leaders appear to be in the best position to deal with these challenges.

Yves GASSOT

> Visit our blog to read the full article.

N�622 - Edito by Yves Gassot -

2012-10-12

The sixth annual Trans-Atlantic Telecom Dialog was held in New York City as part of CITI�s State of Telecom 2012 conference (see the CITI's website). The theme of this year�s edition of the gathering proposed by the IDATE DigiWorld Institute was �Facing the Over-The-Top.� Crossing the pond to participate alongside IDATE included representatives of Alcatel-Lucent, Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Swisscom and Telecom Italia. But it was the number of luminaries among us that made the event a stand-out.

What are the takeaways?

First, a clear contrast between the situations of operators on the two sides of the Atlantic. Though they are all dealing with the paradigm shift to "IP everywhere" and the migration of applications to OTT, Verizon Wireless�s and AT&T�s indicators (revenues, ARPU) are trending in the opposite direction from their European counterparts�. This momentum is riding on the smartphone boom as well as the massive success of mobile broadband (first HSPA+ and now LTE[1])�among consumers, resulting in a steady increase in data ARPU[2].

The US carriers� lead can also be attributed to their more advanced form of tiered pricing[3], structured mainly around data use and adapted to multiple devices (PCs, tablets, dongles, etc.). Of course, Verizon Wireless and AT&T are number one and two players[4]� in a country whose consumers generally have the choice between four or five operators, but they seem to operate largely in a separate market from the other national (Sprint and T-Mobile) and regional (Leap, MetroPCS) competitors.

However, just as in Europe, the fixed portion of AT&T�s and Verizon�s activities shows continued loss of lines and erosion of revenue. And in the sections of their�territories where they have deployed fiber networks (FTTH for Verizon and FTTN/VDSL for AT&T), the Bernstein analyst considers there has been no real return on investment. The main cause of this in the United States is cable, which is far and away the dominant player in broadband[5] and which can increase its consumer access speeds at a minimal cost. As a result, the Bernstein analyst like many other experts foresees more consolidation in the wireless market[6], and perhaps between major cable operators and telcos. The deal between Verizon and several leading cable companies�recently accepted by the FCC, with conditions�trading spectrum for a commitment from the telco to market cable subscriptions, is seen as the first anticipation of this next step.

With the difficulty operators are having counting on a return on their investment in NGN rollouts, we know that the Europeans are inclined to try to pool infrastructure resources, perhaps even opting for a separation regime. This topic was discussed by European speakers but not by the Americans, although plans for wholesale operators are frequently mentioned in the US mobile industry.

Expanding the scope of this transatlantic encounter, two Australians (including the minister) presented the features of the system their country had chosen: a government-led national plan for a super-fast broadband network worth nearly 35 billion USD, and the purchase of traditional operator Telstra and its infrastructure. It is hard to imagine a similar approach in the US. And while the European markets may be tempted, the macroeconomic conditions make this an unlikely option for the time being.

But the most memorable part of this Trans-Atlantic Dialog was none of these. It was the discussion of the next ITU world conference (WCIT-12) in Dubai in December. The NTIA administrator (who is also assistant secretary at the commerce department) and George W. Bush�s former ambassador to ITU sounded the charge against any attempt to change the International Telecommunication Regulations in such a way as to give ITU even a small amount of power over the Internet. Naturally this effort is targeted at countries such as Russia and China, which might seek refuge behind ambiguous security considerations. But it also applies quite explicitly to the position of the European association of traditional operators, ETNO, which decided to propose an amendment to the regulations to take into account some operators� desire to make the "sender party" pay for certain Internet interconnections.

The Deutsche Telekom representative, ETNO�s spokesperson on this matter, did his best to relativize the impact of the proposed modification, and the ITU secretary-general, also present, reminded the guests that every idea must be discussed, and that at any rate he would seek a consensus among the members, but you get the sense that the pressure will remain over the coming weeks. Naturally, the representatives of Google/Motorola and Netflix advocated for the continuation of direct negotiations between content suppliers (or their transit operators) and telecom operators, without the intervention of governments or any kind of intergovernmental body. And AT&T and Verizon do not look like they want to align their position with their European colleagues of ETNO, although they also have reasons to lock horns with the Internet titans.

Join us as we further explore the challenges of �Telcos Facing OTT� at our next DigiWorld Summit, "Game Changers" on November 14 & 15. Visit www.digiworldsummit.com�to register! �

[1] The United States has become the unchallenged leader in LTE with first Verizon (+10 million subscribers in Q2), then AT&T, Sprint and MetroPCS.

[2] Bear in mind the difference in rates: while Vodafone was offering plans at just over 8 USD for 500 MB at the end of 2011, AT&T was offering a 200 MB plan for 15 USD.

[3] Though it is worth noting Swisscom�s innovative approach to reforming its mobile rates based on speed.

[4] With 33% and 31% of US subscribers respectively, for many years. It is especially interesting to note the relative partitioning of the markets between the two leaders (together), who can raise their rates, and the rest, in particular the second-tier (prepaid-focused) operators such as Leap and MetroPCS, who are lowering them.

[5] Cable�s share in winning new broadband subscribers leapt from 50% to more than 80% in just five years.

[6] AT&T�s failed attempt to acquire T-Mobile generated recurring rumors of combinations between Sprint or T-Mobile and second-tier mobile players such as Leap or MetroPCS. As we write these lines, we have just learned that T-Mobile and MetroPCS plan to merge.

N�621 - e-Health, e-Government and finance -

2012-10-10

IDATE has just published its report "Vertical markets: Health, Government and Finance: What potential for operators?�. Capturing vertical markets is clearly an objective shared by many operators. In fact, for Christoph Pennings, Project Manager for this report, "Telecom operators increasingly favour a targeted approach to vertical markets, which they see as a means of developing their activities, in a context of eroding margins, by positioning themselves in new market segments, through greater customization of the services they offer." While vertical markets are certainly not the only remedy to the strong pressure on telcos, they can still provide a considerable boost."

The international benchmark set up in this report is based on a selection of 25 operators, offering services that target specific vertical markets: incumbent operators and new entrants as well as cable operators, operating either fixed and mobile networks or one of the two. This systematic analysis of offers shows that operators consider financial services, health and e-government as the most promising vertical markets and by far the most coveted. This is partly due to their appeal as an area of investment and transformation, but each of these markets also offers specific opportunities for electronic communications services.

"Vertical markets" are a useful concept to describe a move from generic offers to more tailor-made solutions designed to meet the specific needs of 'an industry'. However, customers' requirements within a given industry segment vary almost as much as those of different industries. Within healthcare, services range from remote monitoring to the transmission of critical high-resolution video in real-time or infotainment solutions for patients and staff in hospitals. POS payment solutions are very different from bulk data transmission in finance and so on. Hence, targeting the 'government vertical' is too broad to describe an operator's business and will need further detail. In practice, further segmentation is required and, in order to be successful, operators will need to be very clear about which niche in a given vertical they plan to address and how.

The vertical offers that are available in the market today or under discussion do not imply an entire re-invention of telecom operators' product portfolios. Instead, most vertical offers centre on traditional connectivity but ideally add a few QoS features that make them appealing to the targeted industry, like low latency or security. One of the telecom operators interviewed during the study actually confirmed that about 80% of its healthcare division's revenues come from connectivity. For vertical products somewhat further from their core business, telecom operators with a strong ICT-branch are in a better position to develop the necessary added value to make a product successful in the targeted vertical than players which cannot tap into this kind of resource in-house.

The question is how much impact on revenues (and margins) offers aimed at vertical markets can ultimately have? Clearly, verticalisation of communications solutions is not going to transform the industry as for instance the arrival of mobile did. A match of great innovation and huge market opportunity such as in the case of the M-Pesa service (money transfer service by mobile at Safaricom in Kenya), will remain an exception and a successful replication of such services across different countries will be even more challenging. Yet, the added value of smarter offers, customised to a vertical's requirements, will allow telecom operators to charge a premium over generic plans. The magnitude of this premium will vary widely and depend heavily on the product and the vertical. All in all, vertical markets are most likely not a game changer for the industry, but if operators succeed in addressing the right markets and provide truly differentiated services, vertical offers can collectively deliver a meaningful contribution to set the industry on a more upward sloping growth path.

Christoph PENNINGS
Head of Regulation Practice, DigiWorld by IDATE
c.pennings@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article.

N�619 - World Television Market -

2012-10-04

Publication of the twenty-fifth edition of the �World Television Market� report, is an opportunity for IDATE�s Media team to put into perspective the fundamental changes in the audiovisual industry, in France, in Europe and worldwide. For Florence Le Borgne-Bachschmidt, "It is particularly important to put into context the transformational movements in television, which have never been greater than they are today, in order to measure the revolution taking place�. This report, founded on a very detailed database, provides key information (terrestrial TV, satellite, cable, IPTV, pay-TV etc.), for nearly 40 countries and 5 geographical areas.

TV access modes
According to IDATE, the number of TV households worldwide will reach 1.502 billion in 2016 (+9.4% in 5 years).

Cable will the remain the chief access channel but will gradually lose ground to satellite and IPTV which will account for 30.0% and 7.3% of TV households, respectively, at the end of 2016.

Despite the development of hybrid TV solutions, terrestrial TV will continue its decline and drop down to number three spot by 2016, with a roughly 26% share of the global market.

The development of hybrid solutions that combine live programming on broadcast networks (terrestrial and DTH) and OTT video services over the open Web is a key variable in the future development of the various TV access modes.

Digital inroads
According to IDATE, the penetration of digital TV households worldwide will come to 77.6% of TV households in 2016. Three factors in particular will shape the development of digital TV:

Governments� ability to steer the digital switchover of national terrestrial broadcasting networks

Cable companies� investments in upgrading their infrastructure

How popular IPTV and satellite pay-TV services are with TV households.

TV revenue
According to IDATE, the global TV industry�s revenue will come to �340.1 billion in 2012:

Pay-TV revenue will grow by 12.1% between 2012 and 2016, or by an average 2.9% annually.

Ad revenue will enjoy even stronger growth of 21.2% between 2012 and 2016.

Public financing/licensing fees will continue to increase significantly (+7% in 5 years).

Pay-TV providers going international

Pay-TV is nearing saturation in the world�s more developed TV markets. The emergence of new OTT video services on televisions and other connected devices increases the threat of cord-cutting.

For a great many pay-TV providers in the West, emerging markets therefore represent vital sources of future growth.

Florence LE BORGNE-BACHSCHMIDT
Head of the TV & Digital content Practice
f.leborgne@idate.org

> Executive seminar "Content in the Cloud" within the frame of the DigiWorld Summit 2012 � 14 November 2012

> Visit our blog to read the full article.

N�618 - IDATE�s 2012 DigiWorld Yearbook -

2012-10-03

IDATE present in Moscow the 12th edition of its DigiWorld Yearbook which provides readers with a concise portrait of the digital world. The Yearbook begins with a look back at the trends that shaped 2011, then goes on to explore the key issues in 2012 and, here, takes a looks at the map of the digital universe.

The presentation by Didier Pouillot, Project leader of the DigiWorld Yearbook edition, takes place during a special session, at "Telecom Networks 2.0: Sharing Engineering International Forum" organized by SVM Media & Events Group (detailed programme http://sharing-forum.com)

Live Presentation of the session on:
Sharing Engineering International Forum
(Starting at 9:30am in Moscow, 4th October 2012)

This event will give us the opportunity to present you the latest edition of our DigiWorld Yearbook 2012, which has become an essential tool for digital professionals, providing a compact and accessible review of the main events of the past year, the latest data on the markets and market players, and the major technological and regulatory trends on the world stage. We will benefit from this occasion not only to focus on the key role of Russia in the telecom and ICT market, but also to show our willingness to position Russia at the heart of our European analysis and research.

Is this the beginning of the end for telcos in Europe?

While the Internet giants clearly have a starring role to play in this newly redrawn landscape, the same cannot necessarily be said of telcos. Emerging economies have been driving the global market for several years now while, in advanced economies, telcos are no longer enjoying the tremendous rates of growth brought by the 20 years of development of mobile telephony. This is forcing them to reinvent their business models to adapt to this relative state of maturity, to increased competition in the marketplace, to the disappearance of the minute as the base unit for billing, to competition from OTT players over their core applications, to financing imperatives created by the surge in traffic�

This reinvention process is only just beginning for telcos. It is going by way of changes in access billing schemes within two-sided ecosystems, offering a) customers tiered pricing based on quality (speed, latency, priority), usage, the connected devices and integrated applications and b) managed network solutions to players further down the chain: CDN, cloud, IaaS and API. Other more radical approaches, or ones born of impatience at the pace of FTTH rollouts, see outsourcing and network pooling schemes as the beginning of the end for the sector as it stands: on the one hand is infrastructure-sharing, enjoying a de facto monopoly, financed by utilities or direct public funding and, on the other, service providers� models and competition�

But what concerns us here is something else again: the gap between the North American and European markets during this time of difficult transition. The gap can be seen, first, in the way revenue is progressing, especially in the mobile market which grew by 4.5% in 2011 in the United States, while over in Europe (EU-27), telcos� consolidated revenue dropped by 0.5%. Of course this is due in part to the dire economic situation in Greece (-13.1% for mobile services in 2011), Portugal (- 6.2%), Spain ( 3.2%) and Italy (- 0.8%). But the situation is also bleak in France (- 2.2%) and the UK (- 0.6%). Although not necessarily a contributing factor, also worth mentioning is the four or five-point gap in the capex-to-revenue ratio between the top American telcos and Europe�s incumbent carriers (in domestic spending).

Plus, we cannot help but wonder about a policy that is proving incapable of promoting innovation and investment in the new superfast infrastructure that Europe needs, or competition and price control policies. The third gap results from the sector�s relative fragmentation in Europe, compared to the consolidation we have seen over in the States � even if American authorities� denial of the AT&T/T-Mobile merger put things temporarily on hold. Meanwhile Europe�s telecommunications� industry, like Europe as a whole, continues to struggle to create the much sought-after single market.

Didier POUILLOT
Responsable Telecom Economics and Business Modelling
d.pouillot@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article.

> More information about the DigiWorld Yearbook 2012

N�617 - Google TV must prove its worth -

2012-10-03

Sony has been marketing a Google TV Box in France since end-September, providing access to Web content, music & video entertainment and apps on its TV sets. This bid follows the first launches mid-year in the USA and roll-outs in the United Kingdom, Netherlands and Germany.

Google TV is adopting an original stance with a value proposition that focuses on Internet access and applications (few still available for TV) on the television set, within what is heralded as a seamless interface. Yet early feedback from the USA seems rather ambivalent on this latter point.

In terms of entertainment services, and despite the combined content offered by Google and Sony, the resistance of TV channels to give access to their content could be a burden. Unfortunately for Google, it cannot fully lean on its basic DNA, that of being a search engine, for exploitation on all video streams. Web/TV content indexing (linear or not) in unison with a transverse search engine would indeed change our consumption patterns. This is rather the revolution that is now anticipated, although such change does not depend on Google alone. Google TV's open approach is both its strength and its weakness. By nudging open the door to a world of convergence and unprecedented modes of consumption, it is also, for these very same reasons, warding off content rights holders.

Costing 200 EUR, twice as much as Apple TV and more within the price range of the XBOX 360 or PS3 game consoles, Google TV's current value proposition will be a real challenge to overcome, particularly in France where more than 10 million households subscribe to digital cable and IPTV.

Consumers will be the frontline judges, either endorsing or not endorsing Google's promise to deliver a revolutionary and user-friendly browsing system. This wide-scale endorsement will either open or close future windows of opportunity for incorporating TV channel content in the service, and even opportunities for forming integration partnerships with triple-play operators. This is where the future market really lies.

Jacques Bajon
Head of the Video distribution practice
j.bajon@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article.

N�616 - Smart Cities -

2012-10-02

IDATE has just released its report "Smart Cities: Digital technology behind the smart city". Smart cities, and the digital technology behind them, hold much promise and offer interesting opportunities for new markets, services and practices to the cities� stakeholders. Using a broad range of digital project models of various scales and exploring the different themes surrounding smart cities, this report looks at the issues facing urban centers that are increasingly seen as areas of open innovation.

The precise contours of the smart city concept are still unclear. They are inextricably linked to the stakeholders who drive it (local authorities, IT companies, equipment manufactures�). Whatever the approach or chosen theme(s), digital technology plays an essential structuring role in developing services and applications, and in consumption habits, by combining three complementary and interconnected layers: physical architecture, information system(s) and applications.

If consensus seems to point toward unification of the city's information systems to ensure an efficient and interoperable technical backbone, then achieving this will undoubtedly involve just as much technical consideration (migration of existing systems) as organizational (partnerships to be defined) and economic (economic model to be built). Despite the complexity that such change and transformation will always entail, smart cities offer some very promising possibilities for the future. The report is based on the analysis of many examples of projects conducted at various scales and on all themes related to the smart city, grouped into five areas of applications that cover all of a smart city's needs:

Smart governance: modernization of city administration, public involvement, open data
Smart environment: optimize the management of energy, water and waste.
Smart mobility: help relieve congestion, encourage users to use their own cars less and upgrade existing transport infrastructure.
Smart economy: implement economic strategies based around digital technology to attract the sector's leading businesses.
Smart people: use digital technologies to improve living conditions in cities, in areas such as health, culture and education, tourism and cultural heritage.

For Philippe Baudouin, Project manager for this report, "While Smart cities are still very much in the pioneer phase, the multiplication of major projects enables us to draw lessons and identify avenues for future projects". The concept is sometimes promoted by institutions and sometimes by industry but always based on partnerships to build a wide range of services aimed at a market which is still largely unquantified, in which cities have not yet fully structured their needs, while citizens are increasingly becoming direct players.

Philippe BAUDOUIN
Director of Studies - Head of Digital Plan Practice
p.baudouin@idate.org

> Executive seminar "Smart Cities & Digital Living" within the frame of the DigiWorld Summit 2012 � 14 November 2012

> Visit our blog to read the full article.

N�615 - Open data -

2012-10-01

IDATE has just released its report "Open data: IT and telecom positions in the Open Data value chain". Open data and its applications are a basic Internet movement based on Web 2.0 sharing and collaboration, in particular open innovation. This study provides an understanding of Open Data strategies in the public and private sectors. It also presents strategies followed by the various IT and telecom players involved in the Open Data value chain.

The Open Data phenomenon needs no introduction, the opening up of data and applications now being recognized as a basic Internet movement based on Web 2.0 sharing and collaboration, in particular open innovation.

Every week, there are announcements of newly launched services to release data produced, held or collected by organizations (public or private) that was previously reserved for internal use. This �open� data is freely accessible and reusable, and may carry license restrictions for use. "In reality," says Guillaume Goudard, Project manager for this report, �free access does not necessarily mean free of charge, and access to open data may require payment.�

The public sector is primarily involved in releasing data because it has a considerable amount of internal data available. Cities can directly benefit financially from open data while reducing the costs of making information available, specifically the cost of paper. But the model for public players is a little complex. The prospect of open data projects between public and private sectors usually relies on the co-existence of two worlds with relatively antagonistic views: �Public Sector = Free and /or contributory� and �Private Sector = Paid and market-based�. Among the various keys to understanding, IDATE has chosen to analyse the open data ecosystem in the private sector, by distinguishing four main groups of players, as presented in the figure below.

Guillaume Goudard
Consultant, DigiWorld by IDATE
g.goudard@idate.org

> Executive seminar "Smart Cities & Digital Living" within the frame of the DigiWorld Summit 2012 � 14 November 2012

> Visit our blog to read the full article.

N�614 - World CDN Market -

2012-10-01

During the upcoming CDN World Summit in London Vincent Bonneau - lead Internet analyst at the IDATE � will intervene as a speaker on the topic "Mobile CDN". Besides, IDATE ensures an ongoing research on CDN related topics and publishes regularly in-depth market reports as "Online Video", "Telco CDN" and many more. Below some key findings and figures relative to the world CDN market.

Telco CDN versus Global CDN

Delivering online video based upon current delivery architectures with the necessary scale and/or QoS will most likely become challenging, especially for the so-called �CDN last mile�. Today, the delivery of content from the last CDN node to the end-user is done over �best effort� only. With the expected increase in (mainly video) traffic and associated bit rates, there is a clear interest in extending the current �Global CDNs�, deployed within backbones and at the edge of core networks, with �telco CDNs�, deployed in access networks closer to end-users, to offer quality content delivery to end-users.

Telco CDNs still represent some major challenges, especially in terms of business models (which price, especially vis � vis traditional CDNs) and in terms of operational performance, especially in the case of CDN interconnection. To offer the appropriate QoS, interconnecting CDNs of traditional providers, telcos and content providers could be a good approach to solve some of the issues for QoS, whereby traditional Global CDNs would provide efficient global distribution and telco CDNs take care of efficient local delivery to end-users. Some basic form of interconnection is already offered with CDN brokering, targeting small content providers that cannot really implement multi-CDN strategies on their own in the same way that large content providers do. Any content Internetworking architecture or mechanism should take into account this complementarity of scope and the somewhat hierarchical relation between both types of CDNs. Interconnection could also occur directly between telco CDNs to offer one-stop shopping solutions. Many initiatives are developing, including a few ones within standardisation bodies. The CDN interconnection is also challenging technically with standardised interfaces to be defined between all involved players to manage data and metadata.
We expect telco CDN to develop progressively and become a real competitor to global CDN for some of the premium video content (and thus only a part of the OTT market), thanks to better QoS. This could be especially the case outside USA (as in Europe), as most global CDNs have limited capillarity network outside USA and often offer low QoS for local customers compared to local providers. The impact will be really significant only by 2014/2015.

Hybrid architectures

CDN will develop not only for OTT, but also for managed services, allowing for mutualised spending through hybrid architectures. This will accelerate the development of telco CDN solutions, as a telco will have direct incentives to improve their distribution for their own contents � Comcast is a case in point.
On-net and off-net services co-exist and partly converge, with some gateways between the two solutions. There are still some differences in terms of last-mile access. With these architectures, whereas current CDN solutions being researched stop at the POP, potential solutions would in the future be end-to-end managed CDN solutions, up to STB.

CDN versus Cloud

Global CDN are expected to limit their commercial efforts on OTT video to targeting such other more attractive markets as e-commerce and professional software services (SaaS). A few players are indeed specialising on non-video traffic (Cotendo, Edgecast), whereas large providers such as Akamai and Limelight are now offering cloud computing solutions, following the footsteps of Amazon and other players which came first from cloud computing before entering the CDN market.
There is no doubt that the Cloud represents a very interesting market for CDN players which can leverage their infrastructure of datacentres to provide similar services to markets with better monetisation schemes and expectations in terms of QoS/speed/acceleration.
The Cloud is also key in fact for consumer video, as a potential for multi-screen delivery. CDN can indeed be seen as some form of cloud computing with a virtual infrastructure to scale on any IP network through a single source for content acquisition, Storage and/or transcoding virtualised and aggregation/linkage in the core for content management and metadata management. There would be then some dynamic adaptation of contents to the various devices and subscribers rights, which could be done very deep into the network on-the-fly, and which be easier to implement with adaptive streaming with multi-protocol management.

> Visit our blog to read the full article.

Vincent BONNEAU
Director of the Internet Business Unit
v.bonneau@idate.org

N�613 - World Internet Markets: online search -

2012-09-28

Our ongoing tracking of the main Internet markets � Search, Social Networking, Video, e-commerce, Mobile apps, Online advertising � for fixed and mobile access is a very helpful source for a better understanding of the World of Internet. You can find some of our results for the Search market below.

Fixed search: saturated

The vast majority of countries already have 90%+ penetration levels, so there is little room for further growth
Italy, Spain and China are slightly behind as the internet has been slower to develop there. But penetration is expected to reach close to 90% by 2016.
Local players tend to be strong in Asia: Naver in South Korea, Baidu in China and Yahoo! Japan in Japan.

Mobile search: the new growth engine

With the rise in mobile Internet penetration, the number of mobile searchers is also expected to grow.
Japan, and to a lesser extent South Korea, already have high mobile Internet penetration, and so high penetration for mobile search.

US dominates search market

The US has traditionally been strong in the field of advertising, and since search revenue is based 100% on advertising, America leads the way in search revenue.
The highest growth will come from China, however, with an expected CAGR of 28.6% from 2012 to 2016 �compared to a 10.9% CAGR for the same period in the US.

The UK dominates in terms of per-user revenue

If the US also has high per-user revenue, the UK�s was slightly higher in 2012. They are expected to be neck and neck by 2016.
Behind these two leaders come France, Germany, Japan and South Korea, although their per-user revenue in 2016 will still be below that of the US and the UK in 2012.

> Visit our Blog to read the full article.

Soichi NAKAJIMA
Senior Consultant at IDATE
s.nakajima@idate.org

N�612 - Internet of Things: A new avenue of research -

2012-09-24

IDATE has published its latest COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES No. 87, 3rd quarter 2012 Internet of Things: A new avenue of research

Summary : The Internet of Things (IoT) endows objects with intelligence and ability to communicate, connecting people and machines anywhere, anytime. IoT applications exist in various domains: health, domotics, security and control, the supply chain. IoT exemplifies - and is driven by - major changes in technological convergence, pervasiveness and ubiquity, increases in mobility, traceability, and so on. This special issue aims to develop a better understanding of what the Internet of Things is and what its potential impacts may be. This Dossier includes contributions from different fields of research in order to grasp the various dimensions of IoT in a multidisciplinary perspective (law, economics and management, political science, etc.).

> More information (contents, abstracts, author biographies) here

Exclusive:

Interview with Rudolf van der BERG
Economist & Policy Analyst, OECD
Conducted by Martin CAVE (Imperial College Business School, London)

> Visit our blog to read the full Interview

COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES is an international journal that publishes every quarter peer-reviewed papers focusing on the industry's key issues, and offering a forum for the finest socio-economic analysis of the telecoms, Internet and media sectors.

> For more information about the DigiWorld Economic Journal: www.comstrat.org

Contact
COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES
Sophie NIGON
Managing Editor
s.nigon@idate.org

N�611 - Wolrd LTE Market -

2012-09-18

IDATE publishes regularly market insights, data & forecasts for the World LTE Market. On the occasion of the LTE Asia 2012 conference in Singapore on 18-19 September, we present some of our recent research results for the Asian LTE market.

Asia-Pacific � recent LTE industry moves

Japan: NTT DOCOMO plans to provide LTE services to 50% of the population by 2014 using 20,000 base stations. Their competitors, eMobile and Softbank, launched LTE services earlier this year.

South Korea: the two leading operators in South Korea, SK Telecom and LG U+, launched LTE in 2011. Their peer, KT, was barred by a class action related to the switch-off of its 2G network in the 1800 MHz band. We have adjusted our end-2012 forecasts upwards, with rollout and take-up of LTE services being quicker than expected.

India: The first TD-LTE service was launched by Bharti Airtel in April 2012. The auction of the 700 MHz band, however, has not yet been confirmed by the Department of Telecommunications (DoT). Administrative issues linked to spectrum and availability of TDLTE devices will be key to the take-up of LTE technology in India.

China: whilst there is a likelihood that the Government might award LTE licenses in 2014, the same deep cloud of uncertainty lingers above its green light for TD-LTE deployment. The Government is still obliging China Mobile to continue its TD-SCDMA deployment; the operator is heavily committed to TD-LTE and building its TD-SCDMA network so that cell sites and other network elements may be re-used for the LTE network.

Hong Kong: CSL launched its dual-band LTE network (1800 MHz/2.6 GHz) in March 2011, with dongles provided by ZTE. Take-up has been in line with expectations with 60,000 subscribers by the end of Q3 2011. China Mobile launched its LTE service in Hong Kong in April 2012 using FDD spectrum in the 2.6 GHz band.

IDATE predicts 375 million LTE subscriptions at the end of 2016 in Asia-Pacific.

> Visit our blog to read the full article.

Fr�d�ric PUJOL
Head of Mobile & Spectrum Practice at IDATE
f.pujol@idate.org

N�609 - DigiWorld Summit 2012: Subscription now open! -

2012-08-02

To get your early bird price pass and save up to � 500, visit our new website and register online now!

They will be represented at the DigiWorld Summit 2012:

Accenture - Alcatel-Lucent-Amazon-AT&T-BBC-BT-Ericsson-Google-IBM-Microsoft-Mozilla-Orange-

Samsung-SFR-TiVo-Verizon-Vodafone- �

They have already confirmed their participation:

Luis ALVAREZ SATORRE, EMEA and Latam President BT Global Services, BT
L�o APOTHEKER, Former CEO, HP, SAP
Anne BOUVEROT, Director General, GSMA
Kendrick BROWN, VP IBM Worldwide Center of Competencies Telecommunications, IBM
Pascal CAGNI, Former Apple Managing Director, VP EMEIA (Europe, Middle-East, India and Asia)
Andy Green, CEO Logica
Fleur PELLERIN, Minster of Digital Economy (France)
Ben RENDA, Global Head of Policy, Enforcement and User Operations, YouTube
St�phane RICHARD, President and CEO, France Telecom � Orange
Ted SARRANDOS, Chief �. Netflix
Carsten SCHLOTER, CEO, Swisscom
Ryan Shuttleworth, �Amazon
Jean-Ludovic SILICANI, President, ARCEP
�

> Stay connected! Discover our other speakers at the end of August!

N�608 - World Connected TV Market -

2012-07-10

The television sector is facing a profound restructuring, as players from formerly disparate sectors, such as TV, Internet and equipment vendors converge on the market. IDATE has decided to monitor the market trends affecting the market through a three level approach providing end user devices & video services market data, highlighting innovation pulses and key players� moves. The following analyses are excerpted from of one of our monthly World Connected TV Market Insights.

�The most influential element comes from the popularity of OTT products in the US, whether Netflix with its 22 million streaming customers in Q1 2012 (up 9% from Q4 2011 and generating revenue of $500 million during the quarter) or Hulu which regularly reports more than 1.5 billion ad views a month for its streamed videos, while its Hulu Plus paid offer had a base of two million subscribers in Q1 2012, which is 33% more than in Q4 2011,� says Jacques Bajon, Head of IDATE�s Video Distribution Division.
He goes on to say that, �there is nothing comparable as yet in Europe. The early days of CanalPlay Infinity, for instance, appear quite tepid in France, attracting only 25,000 paid customers in Q1 2012, while American players� weight in the global OTT market is increasing and, by extension, in the TV connected market as well�.

Global market for video services on connected TV

We believe that the global market of services on connected TVs will reach EUR 2.5 billion in 2016. This market will represent 16.8% of the OTT video market and about 1% of the global fixed video services market. These figures correspond to our overall analysis of the deployment of connected TV services, which concluded that the right conditions for rolling out new services were not yet entirely there in early 2012, so we do not expect to see the market really take off until 2015.

Breakdown by service

We anticipate that paid services will play a leading role in the development of connected TV services. We are indeed currently nearing the end of a double phenomenon known as cordcutting (in which consumers will combine free access to linear television via digital terrestrial and satellite with a fee-consumption via OTT services) and cord-shaving (in which consumers will scrap their paid cable and IPTV plans for low cost OTT offers or a limited consumption of VOD services). Globally, we believe that the paid services will represent 59% of the market for video services on connected TV.

With respect to advertising revenue, we believe that they will be primarily derived from the operation of premium programs. Consumption of short programs and of UGC contents is likely to remain largely limited to PCs, smartphones and tablets.

Geographical distribution

Given the pioneer position of the United States with respect to attractive OTT service offerings, we believe that they will remain the largest market for connected TV services, harbouring up to 61% of the total market.

The impact on the global broadcasting market

We believe that the overall development of OTT offerings, in particular on connected TV, will significantly affect the linear TV market, and in different proportions depending on the region.

In the US, we anticipate a decrease of this market, due in particular to the reduced rates of pay television in the wake of competition from OTT services. However, over the period, we expect a growth of the global market (both linear television and new services) at current currency values, but probably a decrease in real terms. We believe in particular that the market could shrink towards the end of the period.

We anticipate a more favorable development in Europe. On the one hand, in developed European markets, we believe there is still some growth potential for pay TV and that the level of prices will limit the impact of competition on linear TV offers. On the other hand, Central and Eastern European countries offer a high growth potential.

Outside these areas and Japan, the development of OTT offers, which will come later, will not weigh on the growth of the traditional broadcasting market over that period.

Jacques Bajon
Head of the Video distribution practice
j.bajon@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article.

N�607 - FTTH vs LTE -

2012-07-09

Although there were only 9 million LTE subscribers worldwide in late 2011 compared to 220 million FTTx subscribers (88 million for FTTH/B and VDSL alone), momentum is rapidly growing in favour of mobile. In 2016, IDATE predicts that the number of LTE subscribers will exceed 900 million, compared to nearly 230 million for fixed ultrafast-broadband (FTTH/B and VDSL).

During the Ultrafast- Broadband Conference, co-organised each year by IDATE and the Aromates agency, IDATE teams will present perspectives on ultrafast-broadband (UFB) expansion. These forecasts are based on our team's worldwide continuous monitoring of investments being made by operators, country by country, project by project, and the current number of subscribers by technology. The debate can therefore be based on objective data, on this day of exchange between all parties developing these key technologies aimed at growth in new digital uses.

LTE, acceleration

Although there were only 142,000 LTE subscribers worldwide in 2010, by late 2011 that number had already increased to 9.3 million. "We expect that a significant share of LTE devices will support FDD and TDD by the end of 2013," stated Fr�d�ric Pujol, Director of IDATE's "Mobile Network" Practice. Growth will also be stimulated by TD-LTE deployments in India, China and several other countries in Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Middle East, as well as in Europe, though to a lesser extent.

Overall, there is definitely an acceleration in deployments that we are following, which will result in a higher than expected number of LTE subscribers, as we now expect to reach the goal of 900 million subscribers by 2016.

For Europe, the situation is different:

Take-off is taking longer than expected in Western Europe due to the late arrival of LTE smartphones and tablets using European frequencies. According to our forecast, Europe should have 150 million LTE subscribers by 2016.

Smartphones for 800 MHz and 2.6 GHz frequencies have been available since March 2012 in Germany and Sweden. Sweden already had nearly 100,000 LTE subscribers by late 2011. The anticipated arrival of smartphones in early 2012 should certainly drive growth in LTE subscribers in Germany.

For Spain, France, Italy and the United Kingdom, it has been confirmed that the first deployments will take place by the end of this year for commercial release in 2013.

FTTx, still very different growth

The global market for FTTx access continued to grow in 2011. There were more than 220 million FTTx subscribers worldwide by the end of the year (with nearly 56% using FTTx/LAN architecture in China) with sustained FTTx growth of more than 25% in the second half of 2011.

Roland Montagne, Director of IDATE's "Telecom" Business Unit underscored the fact that "FTTH/B architecture remains by far the most common in Europe but not in North America (6.2 million VDSL subscribers but nearly 78 million households covered by cable FTTLA + Docsis 3.0) or Asia/Pacific (124.5 million FTTx+LAN subscribers in China). In late 2011, there were 77 million FTTH/B subscribers worldwide compared to a total of about 250 million homes passed by FTTH/B."

Changes in the UFB market over the course of 2011 was marked by divergent trends demonstrated by the number of FTTx subscribers compared to the number of homes passed by FTTx. Priority remains with ultrafast broadband coverage, to meet a potential significant change in demand. This worldwide trend, however, varies from country to country.

Japan remains the world leader in terms of FTTH/B subscribers, followed closely by China. But in terms of growth, these two countries are experiencing distinctly different situations. China appears to be much more active, with a growth rate of 44% compared to 6% for Japan between June 2011 and December 2011. And this trend will only get stronger because, in the preceding half, the respective growth rates were 14% and 5%. This trend could soon result in China and Japan reversing positions in the worldwide ranking of countries with the most FTTH/B subscribers.

Even though the majority of countries in this ranking come from Asia/Pacific, the United States remains in fourth place, with nearly 8 million FTTH/B subscribers. For FTTH/B, a few European countries are holding their own alongside Russia, the leader in this region with 4.5 million FTTH/B subscribers in late 2011.

France is climbing in the rankings and is now higher than Sweden, a leading country but now having difficulty convincing the remaining households to convert to FTTH. Nevertheless, France remains a country where UFB commercial policy is still relatively unconvincing.

Roland Montagne
Head of the Telecoms Business Unit at IDATE
r.montagne@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article.

N�606 - D�ploiement des r�seaux Tr�s Haut D�bit par les collectivit�s -

2012-07-09

A l'occasion des Assises du Tr�s Haut D�bit co-organis� chaque ann�e par l'IDATE et l'agence Aromates, les �quipes de l'IDATE font le point sur les projets en cours et les perspectives concernant les r�seaux Tr�s Haut D�bit (THD) mis en �uvre par les collectivit�s locales. Ces pr�visions reposent sur un suivi permanent que nos �quipes r�alisent au niveau national sur l'action publique en mati�re de technologies de l'information et de la communication et sur les missions de conseil que nous r�alisons pour les collectivit�s dans le domaine de l'am�nagement num�rique des territoires.

Le d�bat de cette journ�e d'�change entre toutes les parties prenantes pour le d�veloppement du THD sur les territoires permettra d'identifier les attentes des acteurs publics et les facteurs susceptibles d'acc�l�rer les d�ploiements des r�seaux optiques sur les territoires.

2012, la prise de conscience par les collectivit�s des enjeux li�s au THD

En 2012, les collectivit�s ont une pleine conscience des enjeux li�s au THD pour leurs territoires. Elles ont compris que les r�seaux en fibre optique, de par leur impact sur des pans entiers de la soci�t�, dans les domaines par exemple de l'�ducation, de la sant�, ou encore du logement constituent une infrastructure essentielle pour le 21�me si�cle, au m�me titre que les infrastructures mises en �uvre au 20�me si�cle dans les domaines de l'eau ou encore de l'�lectricit�.

A ce titre, le d�veloppement des r�seaux THD r�pond tr�s clairement � des probl�matiques classiques d'am�nagement des territoires, qui sont de la comp�tence directe des acteurs publics, et notamment des collectivit�s locales, qui ne peuvent donc en �tre exclues.

Mais au-del� de la probl�matique d'am�nagement des territoires, le d�ploiement des r�seaux � tr�s haut d�bit est per�u comme une v�ritable source de croissance pour l'ensemble de l'�conomie ainsi que de cr�ation d'emplois, pour l'essentiel non d�localisables, dans un contexte national et europ�en de crise �conomique o� l'on recherche pr�cis�ment des moyens de cr�er de la croissance.

Investir pour le long terme dans les r�seaux � tr�s haut d�bit, c'est donc � court terme pour les acteurs publics renforcer la croissance et l'emploi.

2012, l'ann�e pour les collectivit�s de la structuration n�cessaire, pr�alable � un large d�ploiement THD sur les territoires

L'ann�e 2012 a �t� l'occasion pour les collectivit�s de mettre en place les fondations qui leur permettront de passer � une phase de large d�ploiement du THD sur les territoires :

Les Sch�mas Directeurs Territoriaux d'Am�nagement Num�rique (SDTAN), documents prospectifs �tablis par les collectivit�s et instaur�s par la Loi Pintat de d�cembre 2009 relative � la lutte contre la fracture num�rique, portent d�sormais sur 95 d�partements et 43 d'entre eux sont d'ores et d�j� achev�s.

Les collectivit�s r�fl�chissent sur la meilleure structure de portage possible pour la mise en �uvre du THD : elles ont bien compris la n�cessit� de se regrouper pour �tre plus efficaces sur un m�me territoire et avoir la plus grande capacit� financi�re et nombre d'entre-elles devraient s'engager dans la mise en place d'une structure de regroupement de type syndicat mixte ouvert.

Les collectivit�s rentrent dans une phase op�rationnelle en lan�ant des �tudes d'ing�nierie pour avoir une vision fine des conditions technico-�conomiques du d�ploiement du FTTH sur les territoires.

Bref, les collectivit�s ont pass� ces derniers mois � se structurer et � se doter des outils pour �tre en mesure de d�ployer largement le THD sur les territoires, en passant d'une approche "artisanale" � une logique industrielle de masse.

A fin 2017, des projets des collectivit�s locales qui pourraient repr�senter 6 millions de prises FTTH pour 4,5 milliard � d'investissement �

En tenant compte des premiers projets ayant fait l'objet d'une proc�dure d'appel d'offres, voire d'une attribution de march� ou de d�l�gation de service public et qui repr�sentent plus de 2 millions de prises � r�aliser, c'est un total de 6 millions de prises FTTH qui pourraient �tre r�alis�es par les collectivit�s locales � l'horizon 2017, pour un investissement global de 4,5 milliards �.

� sous r�serve d'une amplification des cofinancements nationaux et europ�ens et d'une meilleure pr�dictibilit� des revenus sur les r�seaux

Si les collectivit�s ont pass� ces derniers mois � se structurer et si le "rouleau compresseur" du d�ploiement public va �tre disponible, il reste cependant � trouver le "carburant" n�cessaire pour faire marcher la machine, en l'occurrence � trouver les financements pour les projets et � s�curiser les revenus qui pourraient �tre g�n�r�s sur les r�seaux Tr�s Haut D�bit.

Clairement, la concr�tisation des projets identifi�s par les collectivit�s suppose une amplification des cofinancements de l'Etat et de l'Europe et davantage de pr�dictibilit� sur les revenus, qui pourrait �tre atteinte gr�ce � une r�elle volont� des op�rateurs de basculer leurs abonn�s ADSL vers les nouveaux r�seaux optiques et une action politique forte visant � programmer � terme une extinction ordonn�e des r�seaux cuivre, gage de visibilit� pour les investisseurs.

L��quipe D�veloppement de l'IDATE, une expertise reconnue aupr�s des collectivit�s et des Pouvoirs publics locaux et nationaux.

Les consultants de l'Unit� D�veloppement de l�IDATE interviennent sur l�ensemble des probl�matiques TIC en offrant une palette de prestations r�pondant aux attentes de ses clients, dans les domaines des r�seaux � tr�s haut d�bit, des observatoires et de l'�valuation, du d�veloppement �conomique, et des sch�mas directeurs d'am�nagement num�rique.

Dans le domaine de l'am�nagement num�rique des territoires, l'IDATE a notamment r�alis� les SDTAN de la R�gion Alsace, des Conseils G�n�raux de l'Essonne, du Gers, de la Loire, du Territoire de Belfort, du Val-de-Marne, du Val-d'Oise, du Syndicat mixte de l'Aire Urbaine Belfort-Montb�liard.

L'IDATE est �galement conseil dans la strat�gie THD et assistant � ma�trise d'ouvrage du Grand Lyon, des Communaut�s d'Agglom�ration de Montpellier et Rennes M�tropole, ou encore de l'Etablissement public Debitex qui porte un projet de 120 000 prises FTTH sur 27 communes de la Seine-Saint-Denis et du Val-d'Oise.

Pierre-Michel ATTALI
Responsable du P�le R�seaux et collectivit�s, IDATE
pm.attali@idate.org

N�605 - Next Gen TV 2020 -

2012-07-03

IDATE has published a report that draws on our various works on new forms of TV. It provides readers with a more in-depth analysis of what the future likely holds for television markets between now and 2020, and allows them to identify the core disruptions and innovations that will alter the TV/video market as we know it.

�We will see three distribution models emerge: that of packager (like what cable and satellite do today), the digital store (an open platform that makes all content available to viewers) and self-supply (thanks to the destruction of the exclusive link between the access network and the TV set),� says Gilles Fontaine, IDATE�s Deputy CEO and Project Manager for this report.

He adds that, �New on-demand services will increase their share of the global video market from 3% in 2011 to 12% in 2020 � enjoying an especially high share in developed countries. By 2020, connected TV will be a significant market and will account for 63% of the new OTT services market, with viewing on the PC taking a backseat. The upshot, then, is that managed networks� share of the new services market will be in decline�.

Between 2011 and 2020, the global videos services market will grow by an average 4.7% a year

According to our modelling, the global TV services market will total �355 billion in 2020, compared to �233 billion in 2011, which translates into an average annual growth rate of 4.7%.

Growth will vary from region to region: the top five European markets, along with Japan and the United States together represented 80% of the global video services market in 2011, but their share will drop to 60% by 2020.

Growth rates in developed countries will also vary:
In the United States (CAGR for 2011-2020 of 0.3%), the maturity of the pay-TV market and fierce competition between OTT services will weigh on the sector�s revenue.

In Europe, we believe that Italy and Spain�s live TV markets still have more room to grow than the French and British markets. We also posit that the structure of Germany�s cable market will continue to hinder the development of a national pay-TV market there.

Gilles FONTAINE
Deputy CEO, IDATE
g.fontaine@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article.

N�604 - The DigiWorld Yearbook on IPad -

2012-06-29

The new application DigiWorld by IDATE is now available on IPad ! It already provides a free version of the DigiWorld Yearbook 2011 and allows to purchase and consult the DigiWorld Yearbook 2012 on your IPad. It will soon propose new analyses and publications from our consultants.

> Download for free the Application for IPad on the Apple Store.

N�603 - DigiWorld Summit 2012 unveils the pre-program and its new website -

2012-06-29

In continuity with IDATE's Yearbook 2012 presentations in London, Brussels, Paris and Casablanca, it is now time for us to present you the DigiWorld Summit 2012 Pre-program and brand new website.

Discover the new website of the DigiWorld Summit! www.digiworldsummit.com

Follow the digital markets burning issues,

Learn more about IDATE and the event,

Find out our 2012 speakers soon

Stay connected! The website will be updated every week

Many thanks to Bient�t La P�niche (website & graphism), Let's Comm To The World (digital communication) and Weezbe (referencement) for this new website!

DigiWorld Summit 2012 program

Most of the tendencies that are currently impacting the digital world can be highlighted by three major disruptions, three real Game Changers: Mobile Everywhere, Content in the Cloud, and Big Data.

Taking place on 14 & 15 November 2012, in Montpellier, South of France, the DigiWorld Summit Plenary Sessions will be devoted to the transversal exploration and study of the current changes and their consequences on the ICTs sectors, while the Executive Seminars will focus on a specific market. Telecom, Internet and Media markets will be analysed by the most influent decisions makers and the keynotes speeches, panel sessions and round-tables will help us understand the future of the digital world.

Plenary Sessions

Smart Devices vs. Open Cloud?
The smart devices ecosystems in the Cloud era

NextGen Access vs. Next Gen Telcos
Telcos emergent business models and strategies

Content facing distribution in the Cloud
Impacts of the Cloud on content delivery

Platforms and shovels of the next Gold Rush
Competitive advantages of the leading platforms providers and strategic enablers

Executive Seminars

NextGen Access Networks : Fixed/Mobile convergence & competition

Content in the Cloud

Internet Economics, Big Data and Privacy

Smart City and Digital Living

DigiWorld Game Summit : Games in the Cloud (in association with MIG by Montpellier Agglom�ration)

The DigiWorld Summit in brief

The place to be To understand the next disruptions and their impacts on the Telecom-Internet-Media markets To benefit from an international benchmarks and open visions To enjoy opportunities of stimulating debates and networking outside of Brussels, Paris and London day to day activities	The right mix between Overviews and analysis by the DigiWorld institute by IDATE�s experts teams Visions of few Top level Executives Large commitment of the digital sectors and public players Original contributions from high level academics and economists
Associate Events DigiWorld Business Convention � B2B meetings by Sud de France D�veloppement Montpellier In Game by Montpellier Agglom�ration S@tcom by CNES and IDATE	2011 key data 1 400+ participants 175+ speakers 25+ nations 60+ journalists

Contact
Christine Barre
Head of projet DigiWorld Summit
c.barre@idate.org

N�602 - Communications & Strategies No. 86: Development of ICT in Africa -

2012-06-19

COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES No. 86, 2nd quarter 2012
Development of ICT in Africa

Summary : While the very rapid, although uneven, expansion of mobile telecommunication networks on the African continent is supporting a variety of services including voice, text messaging and Internet access, there is great variety in market structures, regulatory arrangements, and the way applications and services are being rolled out. This special issue is concerned with the way these technologies are contributing to economic and social development and with the barriers that countries in the region face as they seek to reap the benefits of increasing connectivity for their business communities, entrepreneurs and citizens. The papers analyse the challenges and barriers, as well as the opportunities, in the wake of the spread of mobile networks in the region based on experiences at the country level using aggregate data and at the within country level using qualitative data. Several papers show how infrastructure investment and regulation intersect with opportunities provided by voice services and data applications once networks are extended and offer affordable connectivity.

Exclusive Interview with Osei DARKWA
President of Ghana Telecom University College (GTUC)
Conducted by Anders HENTEN (Aalborg University, Copenhagen)

C&S: Let's start with the mobile development. How do you see the mobile development in the overall development of ICT and telecoms in Africa?

Osei DARKWA: I obviously think that it's a very positive development that we have seen in mobile communications. This has provided access to communications for much larger parts of society. People do not anymore have to wait for a communication line as they did previously with fixed line communications. One could say that we have leapfrogged fixed line communications.

But is there a need for fixed communications also to develop or is mobile communications the only important avenue? This issue pertains mainly to the development of broadband.
We have to differentiate here: whether we talk about the access or the backbone networks. Fiber is used in the backbones, but access is mainly mobile. But yes, broadband is the only reason for developing fixed line communications in the access network. Apart from this, it's not really necessary. Internet can also be accessed via mobile communications. It's only because of the quality of service of mobile Internet access and because the support system is not always reliable that fixed broadband has a role to play.

How is it then with the development of mobile broadband � for instance in your own country Ghana?
In Ghana there are presently 6 mobile operators and there is stiff competition. We, therefore, see a great many innovations. However, competition is not equally tough in all African countries. In other countries, there are fewer operators. In Ghana, all 6 operators actually offer mobile broadband. However, use of it is not that high yet. I'd say that around 80% only use voice and texting, but there is absolutely progress in the use of mobile broadband � a development which is primarily facilitated by the diffusion of smartphones.

Do you see Internet in Africa developing as mobile communications have done?
Internet is the next great wave of communication developments in Africa. It will, as I have already emphasized, mostly take place based on mobile networks. There are, however, pricing and reliability issues that need to be solved. But fixed network elements are also very important for Internet developments. We have in Ghana a national fiber backbone, and almost all mobile operators have their own fiber ring. This helps offering Internet at a sufficiently high quality also on mobile connections.

One of the characteristics of the mobile development in Africa is that it has quickly been coupled with broader societal needs and developments such as education and health. How do you see this development unfolding?
There is certainly a great interest in the applications of e-services in many different fields, especially e-health, e-learning and, of course, also e-commerce. And, as mobile is the preferred mode of communication, m-health, m-learning, etc. are important areas to be developed. Indeed, a large number of initiatives have been taken especially in the banking and money transfer area. But development in most African countries is still relatively slow � although some countries have taken a fast leap forward. The basic reason for the relatively slow development is the low take-up of broadband. When accessing Internet, most people will still do it from their workplace or at an Internet caf�. In Ghana, only a small percentage of people accessing Internet will do it from home. The many different potential societal applications of mobile Internet are, therefore, mostly at the planning stage. But the potential is there, and there is also a potential for leaping quickly forward to develop the many useful applications of mobile communications.

In spite of the impressive development of mobile communications, there are still segments of the population which are not yet connected. What needs to be done to reach these parts of the population?
Most African societies are predominantly rural societies. Some 60% of populations live in small communities doing farming in the countryside. This is a difficulty as the spread of populations raises the investment costs and as the ability to pay is rather low. This is, however, an issue which has been on the policy agenda for quite some time in the individual countries as well as internationally with initiatives from World Bank, ITU, the Economic Commission for Africa, etc. In Ghana, one percent of mobile operators' revenues are collected bi-annually to support the provision of infrastructure in rural areas. But I also think that creating awareness is important. Mobile phones are mostly used for voice communications, and there is also need to create awareness that mobile communications can be used for data as well. Another issue is related to the costs. Using mobile broadband services is costly for rural families. Also, the infrastructure needs to be in place. But mobile broadband is advancing � as mentioned. People moreover need terminals. But actually, mobile phones are often not bought by those who use them. For rural users, phones will often be bought by relatives in the cities and then sent to villages in the countryside. But to sum this up: awareness, costs, and infrastructure are crucial elements to look at when aiming at extending communications to remote rural areas.

A much debated topic has been the role of telecenters. How do you see the role of telecenters in reaching the poorest segments of society?
This is a notion that has been around for a long time and it has also been funded by international organizations in different countries. In Ghana, the Ministry of Communications has taken the initiative to construct more than 200 Community Information Centers. And, in for example Senegal and Uganda, there are significant telecenter developments. But I don't think this is the main avenue for the development of communications in Africa in general. The main avenue is the still wider diffusion of mobile communications and telecenters are only a supplement to this main development in reaching those that are still not connected.

Returning to the infrastructure issues: How has the international economic crisis affected the investments of operators in the infrastructural roll-out?
There may have been some effect, but it's not significant. African countries are to different extents linked to the international economy, but the crisis has not really affected the investment side of communication developments. One could say that the effects are more indirect in the sense that Africans living in other parts of the world send remittances to their relatives back home. Here, the crisis has affected the situation as far less money is being sent home. One could say that it's more on the demand side that the international economic crisis has impacted on the telecoms development. In other areas, in Ghana especially the oil area, there has been a great influx of foreign investments, and Chinese investments are all over. But in the telecoms area, the implications have mostly been indirect.

If we look at the regulatory framework, where do you see the greatest challenges for a continued development of the telecoms infrastructure? Are there any regulatory issues that must be addressed?
The situation of course varies in different countries. But yes, there are regulatory questions that need to be addressed. In my country Ghana, many of the telecommunication policies are obsolete. This applies to frequencies as well as infrastructure policies in general. They need to be reviewed. We have, for example, seen the development of VoIP, where there are regulatory obstacles, which set the country back. Technology developments have in different cases gone past the regulatory framework, and this needs to be looked into. The problem is that there is not sufficient pressure from advocacy groups. They are not strong enough and the pace of regulatory development is too slow.

How effective are the regulatory institutions?
For the regulatory institution that I know best, namely the one in Ghana, I'd say that it is relatively effective. But there are challenges regarding the general policy development related to fast changing technologies. The implementation of number portability has, as an example, worked well, and if we take the broadcast area, the transition to digital broadcast has also been successful. But the challenge is the general policy development in following up on new technology trends.

Is there a necessity for public investments in the infrastructure or are private investors/operators sufficient for a continued development?
Yes, I think that there is a need for public investments in the sector. The technologies are changing very quickly, and there is a need for countries to be on top of this development � so to say. In Ghana, a national fiber backbone was built from public money provided via a loan from China. There is also public money in the building of a national data center. In general terms, there needs to be a co-operation between the private sector and the public sector in this area. Most of the infrastructure will be built with private money, but there are specific fields where public investments are necessary.

How do you see the prospects in regional cooperation, for instance in the Ecowas area? Does such regional cooperation have any effect on ICT development?
There is a movement in that direction and there have also been initiatives to that effect for many years, for instance the ideas about creating a common currency in the West-African area. Ecowas is a good example of this. But one has to admit that this has often been more of a 'taking shop'. Many issues � also in the area of communications and IT � have been taken up. But it's more on the conceptualization level than the implementation level. But then again, there are common backbone initiatives, and the Economic Commission for Africa has also been pushing for regional initiatives.

When looking 10 years ahead, which will be the most important issues on the ICT and telecoms agenda?
The most important issue for the coming period will be the development of broadband. The access part of this will mainly be mobile, but the development of fixed backbones is part of it. So, mobile is the important development avenue, and here the crucial elements are the lowering of costs for the operators as well as the users. Quality of service is also a central issue. And then, there is the whole discussion concerning the many applications in health, education, banking, etc. I must say that I'm rather optimistic taking the last 10 years into account. It's been an impressive development in many ways.

Short Biography

Osei Kofi DARKWA was appointed first Principal of Ghana Telecom University College (GTUC) on November 16, 2004. He assumed this leadership position after more than two decades of higher education, administrative, consultative and managerial experience in Norway, the United States, and his home country, Ghana. Dr. Darkwa is an accomplished leader, an effective speaker, a writer par excellence, a true visionary and a holder of an impressive record of academic and research accomplishment. Notably he has written well over 120 articles on various ICT topics which have been published in the Ghanaian Times between May, 2006 and July, 2008. Dr Darkwa has published numerous papers and articles on the Internet and in peer-reviewed journals on ICT development in Africa. He has written on topics such as distance education, telematics, multipurpose community telecenters, and virtual institution building. He has participated in various television and radio programmes and delivered lectures on ICT that cut across various topics across the country and beyond. Dr Darkwa has played a leadership and pioneering role in the community informatics movement as well as a key role in ICT capacity building, education and training. He has membership with key ICT-oriented organization.

Contact COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES

Sophie NIGON

Managing Editor

s.nigon@idate.org

> For more information about our activities: www.comstrat.org

N�601 - FTTx World Market -

2012-06-08

IDATE proposes a watch service for the fiber market and publishes half-yearly the key data of this market for the world - including 70 countries, 150 key actors and forecasts until 2016. The global market for FTTx access continued to grow in 2011. The total number of FTTx subscribers by the end of 2011 was more than 220.8 million, with sustained FTTx growth of 25% in the second half of 2011.

�FTTH/B architecture remains by far the most common in Europe but not in North America (6.2 million VDSL subscribers) or in Asia/Pacific (124.5 million FTTx+LAN subscribers).

In late 2011, there were 77 million FTTH/B subscribers in the world compared to about

250 million homes passed by FTTH/B�, says Roland Montagne, Head of Telecoms Business Unit at IDATE. �Changes in the high-speed broadband market over the course of 2011 was marked by divergent trends demonstrated by the number of FTTx subscribers compared to the number of homes passed by FTTx. Priority remains with high-speed broadband coverage, to meet a potential significant change in demand. This worldwide trend, however, varies from country to country�

The FTTx key markets situation

Japan remains the world leader in terms of FTTH/B subscribers, followed closely by China. But in terms of growth, these two countries are experiencing distinctly different situations. China appears to be much more active, with a growth rate of 44% compared to 6% for Japan between June 2011 and December 2011. And this trend will only get stronger because, in the preceding half, the respective growth rates were14% and 5%. This trend could soon result in China and Japan reversing positions in the worldwide ranking of countries with the most FTTH/B subscribers.

Even though the majority of countries in this ranking come from Asia/Pacific, the United States remains in fourth place, with nearly 8 million FTTH/B subscribers.

For FTTH/B, a few European countries are holding their own alongside Russia, the leader in this region with 4.5 million FTTH/B subscribers in late 2011. France is climbing in the rankings and is now higher than Sweden, a leading country but now having difficulty convincing the remaining households to convert to FTTH. Nevertheless, France remains a country where high-speed commercial policy is still relatively unconvincing. Note that the Ukraine retained its 10th place position.

This ranking remained relatively the same as that shown in mid-2011, except for the change in rankings of Sweden and France.

Be aware that the strong growth of high-speed broadband in the United Arab Emirates could result in it breaking through into the top 10.

FTTx operators worldwide ranking

As Asia/Pacific largely dominates the FTTH/B market, with more than 75% of the total number of subscribers, the players also dominate. Actually, there are 7 Asian operators among the Top 10 players in terms of the number of FTTH/B subscribers worldwide.

The leader continues to be the incumbent Japanese operator, NTT, with more than 16 million FTTH/B subscribers in late 2011. It is closely followed by the two primary Chinese operators, China Telecom and China Unicom, who are also involved in the deployment of FTTx+LAN architecture. However, if you take into account all FTTx architectures, these two Chinese operators outscore by far NTT, which has seen relative stagnation in its high-speed broadband subscriber base. The Chinese market seems to offer very strong growth in fibre optic deployment. For example, between June and December 2011, China Unicom increased by 177% the number of homes passed by its FTTH/B network and its competitor saw a growth rate of 80% in homes passed by FTTH/B.

Nevertheless, leadership in Asia/Pacific is relative. Strong growth in China requires stable markets. For example, due to its lack of innovation in the services it proposed, SK Broadband in South Korea faced a churn rate for FTTH/B of 6% over the second half of 2011, compared to 15% between the end of 2010 and the end of 2011.

The leading American operator, Verizon, has more than 60% of FTTH/B subscribers in the United States. Its growth was relatively stable throughout the second quarter 2011 with an increase in its FTTH subscriber base of 8% but it still garnered a 5th place position of the top 10 FTTH/B players worldwide. In addition, Verizon is concentrating more on the acquisition of new subscribers instead of expanding it fibre optic network.

For Europe, only one country made the rankings list, Russia due to its ER Telecom and Beeline operators. Their fibre strategy is based on acceleration of their coverage as well as an increase in their FTTH/B subscriber base.

Roland MONTAGNE

Head of the Telecoms Business Unit

r.montagne@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article

N�600 - Mobile Location Based Services -

2012-06-07

IDATE publishes a report presenting the evolution of Mobile LBS which has now expanded from traditional maps and navigation services to social networking in the form of check-ins. The report provides detailed information about: the market structure, data & forecasts 2010-2017, competition structure and market trends.

�Mobile LBS on its own has limited competitive advantages, and thus ultimately it is a tool for the juggernauts to further enhance their pre-existing services and business models. Mobile LBS technologies in itself are readily available in the form of APIs and SDKs, and have no differentiating value on their own. In order to make the mobile LBS attractive, various other elements need to be added", says Soichi NAKAJIMA, Senior Consultant at IDATE and project manager of this study.

"This means that the Internet giants, who already have far-reaching and well-established businesses, are in a strong position to acquire innovative LBS start-ups to further enhance their services. On the other hand, start-ups are finding it hard to make the break through with such giants already in place. Recent acquisitions of leading innovative LBS start-ups, such as Gowalla and WHERE by Facebook and eBay respectively, show the destiny of mobile LBS; mobile LBS is best utilised as an enabling technology, in the form of tools for the juggernauts to enhance their services.�

Mobile LBS users of today have a wider definition

Today, the term �mobile LBS� can include different services depending on different people. Traditionally, LBS tended to refer to mapping and navigational services, very similar in form to the kind of services provided to drivers in their cars, through personal navigation devices (PNDs) or in-car navigation systems. More recently, however, especially with the rise of smartphones and associated application usage, mobile LBS can cover a much wider range of services, and can be more subtle too. Social networking applications offering check-in options, and services which allow users to search for information in their proximity (such as Yellow Pages, TripAdvisor�), all use geolocation services through the mobile phone and can be hence considered as mobile LBS.

Depending on the definition of mobile LBS used, the number of users will differ. Even when taking the narrower definition of traditional mobile LBS (mapping and navigation), IDATE expects the number of users to grow, primarily driven by the overall growth of mobile Internet usage, in turn driven by increased users of smartphones. Taking the EU5 as an example, traditional mobile LBS users are forecast to stand at 114 million in 2017, up from an expected 79 million in 2012. However, if one takes the wider definition of mobile LBS, for the same EU5, the number of users is forecast to be 178 million. The same pattern also applies for the USA and Japan, also covered in the database.

Mobile LBS revenues will be boosted by advertising, in the long term

In very much the same way as mobile LBS users as described above, the revenue source also differs depending on the traditional form and the newer form. Traditionally, the main (or indeed only) source of mobile LBS revenue came from direct user payment for navigation services. Whilst this model still exists, however, more services now use advertising, and it is this advertising model which is expected to drive revenue growth in the future. In particular, mobile advertising on social networks, very small today, is expected to become a force to be reckoned with in the years ahead.

In terms of figures, for the EU5, USA and Japan, IDATE forecasts for 2017 that revenues from mobile LBS will stand at 964 million EUR, 2.4 billion EUR, and 1.9 billion EUR respectively. Since the USA is the most advanced in the advertising market, it will have the largest ratio of advertising within this revenue, whilst Japan has a strong paid-revenue model and thus will have the largest ration for direct-paid revenue. The EU5 has the largest CAGR, at 54.5% from 2012 to 2017, largely due to the fact that the market as of today is yet to develop compared to that of the USA or Japan.

Soichi NAKAJIMA

Senior Consultant at IDATE

s.nakajima@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article

N�599 - Cloud & Big Data -

2012-06-05

IDATE publishes a report which explores the various technical and economic issues bound up with cloud computing and Big Data � giving readers a deeper understanding of these concepts that are the subject of so much talk today. Among the key points examined is the critical role that data centres play when implementing technical solutions. Readers will also get a detailed profile of the players, both public and private sector, who are shaping the market.

�The development of cloud computing is bound up with challenges primarily in the arena of infrastructure, using powerful data centres and the IaaS sub-segment that involves making distributed computing resources available on demand. This is the cloud computing market�s most diversified segment in terms of ecosystem, and populated by all players involved in infrastructure � not necessarily IT � as well as those that own their own networks (e.g. telcos) and/or server farms (hosting companies, CDN) and massive databases (service operators, integrators)�, says Julien Gaudemer, Consultant at IDATE and project manager of this study.

�Across the board, these players are leaders in their field, as barriers to entry are made colossal by the investments required (real estate, servers despite optimisation capabilities opened up by virtualisation) and operating costs involved, especially when it comes to power. Energy consumption is in fact a major source of concern. And the role played by public authorities is potentially a crucial one, both in their ability to stimulate market development, through financing, and in their regulation of sensitive issues such as data security, privacy, etc.�

The cloud: big data facilitator

Until the concept of Big Data emerged, data were treated locally in data warehouses composed of several structured databases. Little by little, data sources have diversified, become relatively heterogeneous in terms of format and, above all, have been located chiefly on the Web. Another important point is that they are being produced continually at a steady pace.

The massive computing capabilities needed to be able to make use of this trove of information and these data streams are often available only in large data centres. Cloud computing makes it possible to rent computing power in a storage/hosting space tailored to big data processing. Only a handful of players are capable of performing this process using their own infrastructure, in terms of the IT equipment needed to do so. So the cloud will make big data available to small and medium businesses and other players who have no expertise in data processing.

From a technological standpoint, because traditional datamining solutions were not adapted to these new types of data, innovative software solutions started to appear. And the concept of unstructured databases became increasingly common, as opposed to the traditionally employed structured data. These structured data refer to information that often has the same format, whereas unstructured data will often have very different formats. The term NoSQL (not only structured query language) covers all of the techniques associated with unstructured data. Google has created an applications development environment called MapReduce that makes it possible to break a problem down into sub-problems solved in parallel on different servers. This environment gave birth to the Hadoop solution developed by the Apache software foundation which is now widely employed in the arena of big data. Parallel computing is by now legion in a great many big data schemas, helping to reduce processing time considerably and to achieve real-time data processing.

There would seem to be a very large number of potential applications given the relatively wide array of data sources, and the growing number of open data initiatives that are making government and certain private sector companies� data available for public use. The Internet of things (connected sensors, RFID chips, etc.) will also be fertile ground for potentially major applications. This will be especially true in the areas of marketing and business intelligence, and in vertical domains such as medicine and geology which could be heavy users of big data solutions. Existing datamining applications are also concerned as they can be improved by the use of outside data, and by employing big data processing techniques.

For now, however, these solutions are only being offered, or explored, by a handful of players that specialise in data processing, have control over their own infrastructure and are expert in classic datamining solutions. Big data requires a very specific set of skills which is not yet terribly common in the IT world. Developers who are not skilled in treating data generally need to get special training to be able to develop big data applications.

So big data is still only nascent, and its technical aspects are not yet fully conceived or available. In the medium term, big data will likely benefit those players who are capable of gathering massive amounts of data and treating them in a meaningful way: Google and Facebook are the first that come to mind. Google thanks to the crawling techniques and infrastructures that fuel its search engine, and Facebook thanks to the information it has on its millions of users.

Julien GAUDEMER

Consultant at IDATE

j.gaudemer@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article

N�598 - Economics of the Digital Terrestrial Transition -

2012-05-29

IDATE publishes a report which proposes an international benchmark for DTT rollout and Analogue Switch-Off (ASO) practices and also presents guidelines for the ASO. It addresses the issues and prospects of the (Second) Digital Dividend and details business models for the overall process of transition to digital, including three country cases in the low- to mid-GDP/pop range.

�The terrestrial transition to digital is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity allow a country to launch new multimedia services, to narrow the digital divides (TV and telecoms), and to free and reorganise the (premium) spectrum which is such a scarce and valuable national resource.� says Jacques Bajon, Head of Video Distribution Practice at IDATE and project manager of this study.

Business model

A modelling exercise has been undertaken with three "typical" countries with the following characteristics: different levels of GDP (from below 1 500 USD per inhabitant to below 10 000 USD); different reach for digital terrestrial television (from 60% to 95%); a different number of multiplexes, from one to four; and different network design, namely legacy or reengineering. The model shows that the total investments and costs needed during the transition period vary from 52 million EUR to 320 million EUR. In each case, set-top boxes are the most important cost item.

There are strong variations between countries as regards the level of subsidisation of set-top boxes among TV households (from 90% down to 30%). Similarly, the revenues to be expected from the digital dividend spectrum fee vary (from 0.02 EUR to 0.1 EUR per inhabitant).

Matching costs and sources of funding shows that:

In very poor rural countries, the digital dividend spectrum fees cannot match the total amounts needed for subsidising the set-top boxes and the marketing plan. There is a gap of at least 20% of the total digital transition cost, but additional funding may be needed to help television channels in funding the simulcast network costs and in upgrading their facilities to digital.
In poor urban countries, the revenues from the digital dividend can match both the subsidisation of set-top boxes and the marketing campaigns for promoting the digital transition. However, as in the very poor rural countries discussed above, there may be a need for additional funding to support television channel in funding simulcast network costs and in upgrading their facilities to digital.
In semi-developed countries, the revenues from the digital dividend are significantly higher than the costs of both the subsidisation of set-top boxes and the marketing plans to promote the digital transition. Again here, at this level, there may be a need to assist television channels with funds for simulcast network costs and for the upgrade of their facilities to digital. Part of the surplus revenue from the digital dividend could be allocated to this.

Jacques BAJON

Head of Video Distribution Practice

j.bajon@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article

N�597 - What innovations are shaping the Post PC era? -

2012-05-24

IDATE publishes its new report �Next Generation Mobile Devices�. This study provides an overview of the next generation of mobile devices market, analysing technological evolutions and their associated uses, as well as their impact on the platform-based economy. It delivers innovation case studies, mobile device market data (in volume and value) for mobile handsets and tablets, along with an analysis of carriers� and manufacturers� strategies and challenges.

�Smartphones have radically changed the mobile industry and helped our network-based economy to move to a platform-based one�, says Basile Carle, device expert at IDATE. �Accounting for only 31% of all smartphone sales in 2011, they will account for 58% of total sales of mobile phones in volume in 2016. In absolute value, 1.2 billion smartphone units will be sold in 2016 as compared to 471 million in 2011. Meanwhile, the feature phone as we know them will be gradually replaced by low-cost smartphones with basic functionalities in emerging countries�

A selection of trends for Next Generation mobile devices

Depending to innovation and technological development in the mobile industry, the following trends have been identified:

LTE is currently driving competition in the US and worldwide as chipsets are improving and networks are being rolled out worldwide (US, Canada, South Korea, Japan, Germany, and Norway). While initial devices were primarily targeting the US market, the ecosystem is slowly starting to mature outside band 13. In the mid-term, the increased number of frequency bands to be supported will be an obstacle to the development of devices able to operate on all networks.
Augmented reality, the Internet of things and social networking are deeply linked and will be increasingly used in daily life. The ability of objects to communicate and actively or passively identify themselves will enable a greater interactivity between real life and social networks. Augmented reality will be improved by a better recognition of objects while sensors, in relation with geolocation technologies (indoor and outdoor), will enable a better service contextualisation.
Cloud services will make mobile devices more independent of computers and allow an ecosystem to grow around smartphone devices communicating with ever more numerous smart objects such as watches and televisions as well as non-smart ones such as sensors and NFC tags. Application and contents will be available for consumption whatever the devices and will remain synchronised in the cloud.
Artificial Intelligence as well as gesture recognition and interpretation will foster the development of natural user interfaces and the dissolution of user interface elements in favour of intuitive and direct contacts between the user and the content. The dissolution of technology in our daily life is a sign that a technology has been successful.

As far as evolution in form factors are concerned, the following trends have been identified:

Reductions in component size will enable more components (and functionalities) to be embedded while staying more or less with the same size and weight. Battery life will remain similar in absolute terms in the years ahead but will be improved in relative terms (as compared to the amount of services and functionalities provided)
Maximum screen size will not change significantly but devices within their categories will have a broader range of sizes to match with different price ranges. Innovation in the display will be achieved through increased resolution and connectivity. More and more functions (of which display) will be deported and the cloud will be central in the interface between mobile devices. Deported functionalities will use either larger equipment such as connected televisions in the home, or even more mobile and flexible devices such as smart watches or other wearable devices.
Wearable devices will be part of the digital ecosystem thanks to even thinner screen with bending capabilities and Body Area Network Radio technologies. The development of wearable non-smart �devices� will contribute together with the advent of new smart objects to the deportation of even more functions outside of the smartphone. In this ecosystem the smartphone will, however, remain the leading processing unit.
As a matter of course, devices will progressively become water- and dust- resistant at least to a minimum extent. This is a natural evolution for devices that follow us in our everyday life, indoor but also outdoor. Such devices have already hit the market but currently remain niche products. Changes in the manufacturing process could easily make them more resistant to the minor dangers of daily life such as sand or rain.
Together with this trend, wireless (but not contactless) charging capabilities will gradually penetrate mobile devices provided that wireless-charging infrastructures become available. Otherwise this will remain an option for higher-end devices

Basile CARLE

Senior Consultant Telecom Strategies at IDATE

b.carle@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article

N�596 - World LTE Market -

2012-05-23

IDATE provides regular analyses of the main trends shaping the world�s mobile markets: networks, devices and services. On the occasion of the LTE World Summit in Barcelona (May, 22-24) IDATE provides its latest analyses and forecasts for the world LTE market.

By the end of 2016, we forecast that there will be more than 830 million LTE subscriptions worldwide.
Of these, Asia-Pacific will represent 37.2% of the total, North America 23.8% and Western Europe 16.9%

Coming soon: �true 4G�

Relatively swift take-off and very healthy growth prospects

After the pioneer launch by TeliaSonera in Stockholm in late 2009 and the fi rst deployments in 2010, LTE rollouts picked up speed in 2011. By the end of the year, there were more than 9 million LTE subscribers � of whom more than half were Verizon Wireless customers in the United States � employing more than 30 LTE networks worldwide. The 4G ecosystem is spreading quickly, and over 200 cellular operators are now deploying the technology. There will likely be more than 800 million LTE accounts worldwide by the end of 2016, thanks to confirmed operator interest in long term evolution and in �true 4G�, LTE-Advanced. The tug will come with massive growth potential in Asia-Pacific � led by China and India with TD-LTE, but also South Korea and Japan � and increased competition in the United States now that Clearwire, Sprint and Dish have elected to invest heavily in LTE, to be followed by LTE-Advanced starting in 2013. The adoption of 4G in Europe has been slower, with mobile operators investing only gradually, apace with the increase in data traffic.

LTE bolsters technical performances and helps bring down mobile access costs

One of the main reasons mobile operators are deploying LTE is to deliver faster connections � up to a maximum 50 to 70 Mbps downstream � and to handle the tremendous surge in data traffi c. These fourth-generation systems are more spectrum-efficient than 3G, and with LTE-Advanced they are expected to reduce per-Gb prices by 10 times on wireless channels, while supplying even faster connections than LTE. In January 2012, the ITU announced that LTE-Advancedand 802.16m (or WirelessMAN Advanced, the evolution of mobile WiMAX) standards had been accepted as the standards for the next generation of mobile systems, referred to as �MT-Advanced� or �true 4G�. They enable bitrates of up to 1 Gbps in low mobility and 100 Mbps in high mobility, with low latency and the ability to use to large channels of up to 100 MHz.

No-one doubts that LTE will dominate the 4G landscape and will overshadow mobile WiMAX, especially since LTE TDD and FDD duplex schemes will cohabitate and complete one another on both networks and devices starting this year.

There are nevertheless still some stumbling blocks for LTE, not least the fragmentation of LTE spectrum and, of course, as is the way in the early days of every new generation of mobile system, the lack of compatible devices.

Even though a number of LTE-compatible devices have been available since early 2011 � smartphones, tablets, dongles, routers, M2M modules � manufacturers havingbeen concentrating on the American market, and on supplying Verizon Wireless in particular.

Upsets on the horizon

In terms of spending on mobile network, operators in Europe are working to minimise the impact of LTE, with expenditures that grew by a very slight 2.6% in 2010, whereas over in North America cellcos increased their spending on mobile networks by around 10 billion USD from 2009 to 2012. LTE could give operator income a boost, and new rate plans are being introduced that have raised both bitrates and monthly caps on traffic. In terms of services, telematic and HD video capabilities, along with services in the cloud such as online gaming, will make use of the increased bandwidth supplied by LTE. Further down the road, we can expect to see a broad range of LTE-enabled solutions such as smart metering, home automation and remote surveillance. The wholesale operator model appears bound to emerge with LTE in a number of countries. In developed countries, LightSquared, Dish and Clearwire in the United States, along with Yota in Russia, are all adopting roughly the same business model, with strategies that involve distribution via MVNOs and/or mobile operators. In developing countries, sharing a single LTE infrastructure will enable market players to earn a swift return on their investments.

Fr�d�ric PUJOL

Head of Mobile & Spectrum Practice at IDATE

f.pujol@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article

N�595 - Multi-play -

2012-05-09

IDATE has released a report that provides a detailed analysis of the global market for bundles and services sold with internet access. It will enable readers to deepen their understanding of game-changing developments � exploring key issues and current trends: bundles, content, smart access and segmentation.

�Smart access services are the services associated with ISPs� core solutions, such as rich communication, digital home and secure access. They all represent high-margin opportunities for vendors and involve services related to their core business, along with vital assets when going head to head with internet giants. Operators can draw on their existing customer base and network functionalities�, says IDATE consultant, Sophie Lubrano, the Project Manager for this report.

Smart access

Value-added services bundled with operators� core solutions

The smart access category of services includes those that create value-added for operators� core solutions: landline telephony, mobile services and internet access. They are relatively close to operators� core business and cover various arenas:

�Rich communication�: all services tied to telephony, mail/messaging and instant messaging on wireline and wireless networks, along with location-based services.
�Digital home�: all services that enable the various devices in the home (phone, PC, TV, etc.) to access wireline and wireless networks and customers� content. The digital home also includes home network and remote management systems.
�Secure access�: services tied to security and storage, along with insurance and payment, on both wireline and wireless networks.

Opportunities in services adjacent to their core business, with prospects for healthy margins and the ability to leverage assets when sparring with internet giants

�Smart access� services represent an opportunity for added income and solid margins for operators, and offer several advantages:

Unlike content, they do not require partnerships with market leaders, except for payment systems. This means that operators can enjoy a sizeable margin.
The margin can be relatively high on storage and security services, for instance, whose running costs are low.
Smart access services are a natural progression for an operator�s business and do not require any major upgrade of sales/marketing teams.
The billing tie is a crucial element: of all the major internet companies, only Apple and Amazon have managed to create a lasting billing relationship with users. The ability to invoice subscribers and have a relationship of trust with them is a vital part of operators� business.

Ultimately, then, operators have major assets when it comes to these services and can leverage the existing trust-based relationship they have with internet users, deliver solutions that are close to their core business and generate healthy margins. But they are having to compete with top internet players who are working hard to occupy these positions, especially when it comes to communication services, cloud computing and home network solutions.

Sophie LUBRANO

Project Manager

s.pernet@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article

N�594 - DigiWorld Yearbook 2012 -

2012-06-18

IDATE has published the 12th edition of its DigiWorld Yearbook which provides readers with a concise portrait of the digital world. The 2012 DigiWorld Yearbook begins with a look back at the trends that shaped 2011, then goes on to explore the key issues in 2012 and to map the digital universe. A quick summary of these three parts would be:

Digital economy scorecard for 2011: Digital market momentum calling existing models into question: usage exploding but revenue only inching slowly up

> More information on our Blog

Core issues in 2012: Beyond the battle of the devices�Mobility everywhere, services & content in the cloud and Big Data

> More information on our Blog

Economic map of the digital world: is this the beginning of the end for telcos in Europe?

> More information on our Blog

> Visit the DigiWorld Yearbook website and read the first chapter: www.digiworld.org/yearbook2012

Looking at the figures, �2011 confirmed the recovery that began the year before, but very meekly,� says Didier Pouillot, head of the DigiWorld Yearbook. With 4.3% annual growth worldwide, we are still below the growth rates posted before 2008 and, more importantly, this overall average masks even greater disparities between the regions and the different sectors than last year. Looking beyond the figures, what we find are profound changes taking place in the industries and the markets, with no shortage of challenges and unknowns on the horizon. Europe is slightly lagging behind including for its most advanced markets like the United Kingdom, which is struggling to get back on the recovery path following the sudden 2008-2009 downturn with only +0.5% in 2010 and +0.5% in 2011.

In his foreword, IDATE Chairman, Francois Barrault, says that, �A great deal of importance is given to the observatory aspect of the DigiWorld Institute by IDATE. We cannot promote our debate and interaction-centric activities or offer public and private sector players the resources of a think tank without creating a credible system for keeping tracking of the latest innovations and market developments, providing solid datasets and thought-provoking analysis. IDATE began this monitoring process 11 years ago, which has culminated in this yearbook of some of the highlights of the work performed by our analysts and consultants over the past 12 months. In this edition you will therefore find a condensed version of the analyses delivered throughout the year in some 40 specialised market reports, three market watch services and a host of support assignments for our clients.�

About the DigiWorld Yearbook:

193 pages that include the finest market insights from IDATE experts who�ve tracked the development of the globe�s telecom, Internet and media industries throughout the year, along with market figures and a look at the game-changers to keep your eye on.

The DigiWorld Yearbook is published in English and French and available in print and PDF format. An enhanced version for iPad, developed by Forecomm is also available.

> The 2011 edition can be downloaded for free

> Prices (incl. VAT) for the 2012 edition are: Print: �99.99 / PDF & iPad: �54.99

Public launch parties featuring special guest speakers are held:

in London on June 19, Olaf Swantee, CEO Everything Everywhere
and in Paris with a talk from Thierry Breton, Chairman and CEO of ATOS and in Brussels with special guests Didier Bellens, President and CEO of Belgacom, and Robert Madelin, European Commission, DG Infso.

N�593 - World Video Game Market -

2012-04-19

IDATE publishes every year a market report providing its readers with an analysis of the world video game market (hard- and software) that is currently changing shape, assessing the key technologies to accelerate such a development of this promising market, along with the key issues to be addressed and market forecasts up to 2015.

After growth stalled for a time in 2009-2010, since then the video game sector received a new boost, due to:

� two segments entering a new generation (home and handheld consoles),

� two segments now set to draw wide audiences (online games and games for mobile phones).

� the emergence of two highly promising segments (tablets and connected TV)

Over a period of five years, the video game software market will grow from EUR 41.9 billion in 2011 to almost EUR 60.6 billion in 2015. Two factors explain this performance:

� the market arrival of a new generation of handheld consoles in 2011 and emergence of a new generation of home consoles from 2012.

� the extraordinary growth of segments for games on mobile phones and online, particularly in Asia/Pacific and more specifically in China, where both segments combined will be worth EUR 8.6 billion by 2015.

�Growth of the video game market is still influenced by the life cycle of home consoles. As such, the commercial launch of new generation machines from 2012 on will inject renewed growth into the sector, with video game software generating potential revenues of some EUR 60 billion by 2015.� explains Laurent MICHAUD, project manager of this study and IDATE�s Head of consumer electronics & digital entertainment.

Seven key industry trends for 2011

IDATE has identified seven trends which marked the past year:

� In 2011, in the game software market, one out of every two euros is generated from digital distribution or income from online practices (item selling, etc.).

� 2012-2015: the advent of a new generation of home consoles. With the imminent release of Wii U next year, Nintendo�s competitors will clearly have to rethink their schedules for rolling out their next gen consoles.

� By end-2011, smartphones and handheld consoles will eventually converge, with the commercial launch of the Playstation Vita (PS Vita), available in two versions: with a wireless or 3G connection.

� Tablets: likely to take off in 2011-2012. A new device creating new usages within the digital home, the tablet provides an ideal interface for video games, now the most popular type of application on this device.

� Facebook, the most recent game platform to date! The social network has pursued its casual gaming endeavors, broadening the base of gamers and converting general consumers to video gaming. The gamble seems to have paid off, although only time will tell at what pace games will be exploited in this segment.

� The age of ubiquitous games: increasingly asynchronous access to the same game via several interoperable platforms. Gamers ultimately have just one centrally-managed account, regardless of whether sessions are played on Facebook, a smartphone, developers� websites or connected TV, etc.

� The emergence of games on connected TV: Onlive and Playcast Media are the most prominent companies to invest in games on this platform. However, this nascent segment is also drawing the interest of a wide number of Internet, TV and video game players, as well as ISPs, manufacturers of consumer electronics, smartphones and set-top-boxes, and telcos, etc.

Laurent MICHAUD

Chef de projet

l.michaud@idate.org

> Visit our blog to read the full article

N�592 - Cloud Ecosystem and Platforms Competition -

2012-04-11

Cloud ecosystem
and platforms competition

Edited by Jacques CREMER, Yves GASSOT,
Bruno LANVIN & Lorenzo Maria PUPILLO

Montpellier, April 02, 2012 � IDATE has just published its latest COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES dossier dedicated to "Cloud ecosystem and platforms competition".

Cloud computing is substantially changing the way computing is performed. Indeed, it allows for on demand self-services, resources pooling to serve multiple users using multi-tenant models, elastic provision of capacity, better control and use of resources through measured services.

Content in the cloud is opening the way for a vast array of content and innovative applications. However, the benefits of cloud computing, come along with additional challenges in the area of privacy, security, consumer protection, �

The papers selected for this special issue develop various thoughts on these issues. They provide original analysis of the platforms competition, and flexible and adaptable approach on the policy side as well as innovative technical and market solutions.

Exclusive:

Interview with Anne BOUVEROT,

Director General GSMA

Conducted by Yves GASSOT (IDATE-DigiWorld Institute)

C&S: Do we need to accept migration to the cloud as key to the mobile sector's development? Is there any element that is specific to the mobile cloud?

Anne BOUVEROT: I think that the cloud is certainly going to be associated with and have a significant impact on mobile telecoms in the years ahead, but we will use the term in many contexts to describe a number of different things. Defining the cloud is the hardest piece. I like to think of it as having the power of a million computers in the palm of your hand but it does not weigh anything and you do not have to worry about the IT. I like this definition as it helps you understand that the processing power and storage possibilities are almost endless.

Today in the mobile world, the cloud is typically seen as a place for remote storage, and for more advanced customers a source of remote processing power. Many of us have used consumer services like Apple's iCloud and business-oriented services like Google Docs already. These services will continue to develop and can offer users many benefits in a multi-screen world, with the automatic syncing of your content, documents and applications.

Our mobile operator members are also using cloud type architectures for their own internal services and platforms. A great example is NTT DOCOMO in Japan who are providing real time language translation services to their customers using the cloud infrastructure.

But I think that we are just at the beginning of an exciting development cycle. I don't believe we need to think of the cloud differently in the context of mobile versus fixed networks, but we do need to remember that the vast majority of the worlds population will access cloud type services only through mobile, so we should always think of the cloud through a mobile lens first.

C&S: In what ways would the ubiquitous use of cloud architectures alter the mobile internet as we know it? Is it likely to undermine the app store and download model for smartphones? Will HTML 5 play a major part in opening up the mobile internet ecosystem? Do you think this will do anything to shake up the current duopoly in the smartphone OS market?

A. B.: I am not sure I would say that the cloud will alter the mobile internet as we know it - I think its better to think of it as enhancing an already compelling proposition. Certainly mobile apps will continue to flourish, with billions already downloaded today. HTML 5 will not significantly change the nature or user experience of applications. It merely provides an alternative delivery technology that I think will become very popular.

The emergence of HTML5 has the potential to provide more competition in the OS space in the future, and this is always a welcome development for consumers. That said, there are a lot of trends that could develop out of the move to HTML5. For example how closely are the browser and OS integrated, and actually does the browser become the OS?

There is a possibility that in the HTML5 world, influence may balance out between the current application ecosystem providers, the handset makers and the mobile operators which I believe would be a welcome development, but the key as always will be to see who can provide the best user experience for the consumer. That is where the GSMA and its operator members are focused.

C&S: To what extent are mobile operators concerned by the spread of cloudoriented architectures, in terms of the evolution of their network infrastructure? What consequences might users storing data and hosting applications in the cloud have on traffic and signalling? On security and quality of service? What issues might arise around cellular operators' interconnection with the internet giants' infrastructures? Will cellular telcos be forced to invest in the cloud and, if so, for which functions or services?

A. B.: Mobile operators are not concerned about cloud services per se, as long as they are implemented in a responsible fashion. What is clear is that the proliferation of smartphones and tablets, and the rise of applications are driving massive increases in data traffic on networks. They are also driving a huge increase in application signalling traffic, in many ways as troubling as the data traffic. Our mobile operator community, through the GSMA, recently published a set of Application Efficiency Guidelines that aim to educate developers on how best to build applications that respect and conservatively use the network resources.

I believe that Security and Quality of Service (QoS) are certainly great strengths for the mobile operator community, and are areas that they can leverage in the future as competitive advantages. A consumer value proposition that says that an operator can provide you services with a guaranteed QoS in a secure fashion while protecting your privacy is a very strong offer.

In terms of the interconnection between the operators networks and the internet giants, it is fair to say that mobile operators will continue to push for a set of business terms that aligns the investment required to support new services, with the revenues that the services generate. Network traffic continues to grow at an exponential rate, and it seems impossible to me that we will not find a mechanism to share the costs of infrastructure investment with the over the top players that are offering the services. By doing this I believe we will have a sustainable industry and continue to invest in the network capabilities of the future..

C&S: Do you think the cloud will play a role in furthering the convergence between wireline and wireless broadband?

A. B.: The important thing to remember about cloud based services and applications is that it is not so much about the convergence of fixed and mobile networks - it's about the decoupling of applications from specific access methods and devices. As an example I want to be able to watch my TV at home, pause it, continue watching on my mobile device, and then maybe when I get to my end location watch the end of a program on my computer. These types of scenarios are attainable through the cloud. So I would say that the cloud is about agnostic access rather than convergence.

C&S: Is there anything that can be learned from telecoms that could improve the consumer's cloud services as a whole?

A. B.: A core pillar of the mobile industry is the interoperability of services across operators and countries. This is the foundation that made GSM technology the success that it is today. As we embark into a world of cloud services, the ability to provide services that are interoperable across different clouds will be equally key. These capabilities will come to the fore when customers want to leave one cloud service and move to another. For example, if you have mission critical content, some business applications and maybe other forms of data stored in one provider's cloud, you should have the capability to move it to another providers cloud. Or if as a consumer you have your music and pictures with one provider and you want to move to a phone with a different OS and cloud, you should be able to do so. Under the current vertically integrated and technically separated market for cloud services, it is not clear how this could take place and how the cost of the migration would be covered. I believe that in the future we will see a consumer push for a greater degree of interoperability and compatibility between cloud providers to enable consumer portability.

In the mobile world, this kind of commonality and portability of service has been in place for some time. Mobile operators realised the benefit of an interoperable ecosystem and have actively maintained and guarded this capability. SMS is a great example of the power of a globally interoperable service. Applying this in the cloud world, there could be distinct benefits at layers such as authentication, security and portability that would make your cloud service a much more dynamic offering, and perhaps more importantly, drive some good service based competition.

Short biography:

Anne BOUVEROT is Director General and Member of the Board of the GSMA. Before joining the GSMA, Anne was Executive Vice President for Mobile Services for France Telecom Orange, where she defined the strategic priorities and led transformation programmes for the mobile business and was also responsible for the selection of mobile devices sold to customers with mobile offers. She previously was responsible for international business development at France Telecom Orange, and her achievements include the privatisation of Telkom Kenya, new mobile licences in Armenia and Tunisia, and partnerships in Portugal and UAE. Prior to France Telecom Orange, Anne led a business unit of Equant and was responsible for developing IT services for Equant's multinational business customers. She began her career in telecommunications as project manager for Telmex in Mexico in 1991. Anne holds M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in mathematics and computer science from the Ecole Normale Sup�rieure in Paris and an M.S. degree from Telecom Paris.

Contact

COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES

Sophie NIGON

Managing Editor

s.nigon@idate.org

N�591 - Satellite M2M Market -

2012-04-05

IDATE just releases the first edition of its market report providing its readers with an analysis of the M2M market that is currently changing shape, assessing the key technologies to accelerate such a development of this promising market, along with an examination of the positioning of the top players, the key issues to be addressed and market forecasts up to 2015 by geographical area and by type of market.

M2M is a growing segment for the satellite industry, although satellite still has only a small share of the machine-to-machine market which is largely dominated by cellular systems: around 2% in terms of volume and 6% of revenue in 2011.

For most operators, M2M is still very much a niche market, but everything points to real growth potential for these applications.

�While it is sectors like fleet management and maritime security that have driven the sector�s development up to now, new markets have been emerging over the past several years, especially in the area of energy, but also in the homeland security/military arena.� insists Maxime BAUDRY, project manager of this study and IDATE�s head of the satellite practice.

Satellite M2M market growth/disruptive factors

There are several factors driving the growth of satellite M2M applications, starting with:

� Clear assets in terms of coverage: once classic and low-cost wireless solutions (chiefly GSM and 3G) are no longer available, satellite becomes the only possible solution for M2M applications. This is especially true of vast desert areas, and of oceans where demand for M2M solutions is high: for tracking fishing vessels, dangerous cargo, monitoring offshore wind farms, etc.

� Tremendous increase in applications requiring M2M. Examples here include smarts grids in the area of energy, tracking shipments � whether on land, sea or in the air � and for the military which are heavy users of M2M applications for tracking combat assets, in addition to having the means to pay for very high-end and so very expensive products.

� Complementary nature of terrestrial and satellite networks to deliver M2M links end-to-end. Manufacturers have been innovating over the past several years by rolling out hybrid equipment which is being used more and more by operators. Orbcomm was a pioneer in this field, and was then followed by players such as Iridium and Inmarsat.

� Stricter regulation. Recent developments in maritime regulation, notably the adoption of stricter regulations over monitoring commercial vessels, have been beneficial to satellite which is the only possible solution for this type of application outside of coastal areas.

Current satellite M2M market estimates

The satellite M2M market still represents only a small fraction of satellite services revenue. In the satellite M2M market came to 1.5 billion USD while the Satellite Industry Association (SIA) puts the entire satellite services market at an estimated 101 billion USD � giving M2M a 1.5% share of the market. IDATE estimates for 2011 indicate that this share will increase to 1.6%. The number of M2M modules in services stood at 1.3 million units in 2010.

The global satellite M2M market is forecast to reach 2.3 billion EUR in 2016. The highest rate of increase will be in the Asia-Pacific region thanks to developments in countries such as China, Indonesia, Vietnam and India.

Maxime BAUDRY

Project manager

m.baudry@idate.org

Visit our blog to read the full article

N�590 - Machine-to-Machine Market -

2012-03-28

IDATE publishes every year a market report providing its readers with an analysis of the M2M market that is currently changing shape, assessing the key technologies to accelerate such a development of this promising market, along with an examination of the positioning of the top players, the key issues to be addressed and market forecasts up to 2015 by geographical area and by type of market.

�The volume of connections and M2M SIM card shipments has attained a new level of significance with regulatory bodies starting to take them into account. For instance, the French ARCEP and Spanish CMT telecoms regulators now register the number of active M2M lines (M2M SIM cards). The Japanese regulator, TCA, is also providing estimates of active use on a regular basis.�

M2M cellular market

The M2M cellular market currently accounts for 90 million modules, in late 2011. It must be borne in mind that the number of communicating modules (also called �concentrators� or �hubs�) is significantly lower than the total number of machines. The ratio depends on the type of application, but it can reach up to 50:1 in energy and more than 200:1 for other utilities. In 2010, North America had already overtaken Europe with the consumer electronics M2M segment, growing strongly.

Connectivity revenues

The rapid growth rate of connectivity revenues is still holding firm, thanks to the soaring volume of modules, in particular consumer electronics devices. In fact, it is largely compensating the drop in ARPU. Cellular M2M connectivity revenues are over 1.5 billion EUR in Europe in 2011, slightly more than 1.1% of mobile operator revenues in 2011.

Market by geographical zone

The worldwide market for cellular M2M will reach 18 billion EUR by year-end, despite a lower growth rate in 2011 (20% vs. 32% in 2010). North America is the leading market in terms of volume but Europe is still the leader in value.

Samuel ROPERT

Consultant

s.ropert@idate.org

Visit our blog to read the full article

N�589 - World Connected TV Market -

2012-03-22

The television sector is facing a profound restructuring, as players from formerly disparate sectors, such as TV, Internet and equipment vendors converge on the market. IDATE has decided to monitor the market trends affecting the market through a three level approach providing end user devices & video services market data, highlighting innovation pulses and key players� moves. The following analyses are an extract of one of our monthly published World Connected TV Market Insights.

�In 2016, the VoD market for the TV will be dominated by Over-The-Top (OTT) offers. In Europe, we estimate the global market for OTT video services on connected TVs at EUR 2.4 billion in 2016, with Europe and North America representing respectively 17% and 54%�, says Jacques Bajon. �Managed network players - cable and IPTV providers, for instance � are holding one of the key drivers for the Connected TV market development. They can continue their strategy of service distribution or open massively their networks to over-the-top services giving a boost to their commercial offers.�

Global market for video services on connected TV
We estimate that the global market of services on connected TVs will reach EUR 2.4 billion in 2016. This market will represent 16.7% of the OTT video market and about 1% of the global fixed video services market. These figures correspond to our overall analysis of the deployment of connected TV services, which concluded that the conditions for the launch of new services are still not completely met in early 2012 and sets the likely date of the market take-off at 2015.

We anticipate that paid services will play a leading role in the development of connected TV services. We are indeed currently nearing the end of a double phenomenon known as cord-cutting (in which consumers will combine free access to linear television via digital terrestrial and satellite with a fee-consumption via OTT services) and cord-shaving (in which consumers will scrap their paid cable and IPTV plans for low cost OTT offers or a limited consumption of VOD services). Globally, we believe that the paid services will represent 57% of the market for video services on connected TV.

With respect to advertising revenue, we believe that they will be primarily derived from the operation of premium programs. Consumption of short programs and of UGC contents is likely to remain largely limited to PCs, smartphones and tablets.

Geographical distribution
Given the pioneer position of the United States with respect to attractive OTT service offerings, we predict that they will remain the largest market for connected TV services, harbouring up to 50% of the total market.

The impact on the global broadcasting market
We come to the conclusion that the overall development of OTT offerings, in particular on connected TV, will significantly affect the linear TV market, and in different proportions depending on the region.
In the US, we anticipate a decrease of this market, due in particular to the reduced rates of pay television in the wake of competition from OTT services. However, over the period, we expect a growth of the global market (both linear television and new services) at current currency values, but probably a decrease in real terms. We believe in particular that the market could shrink towards the end of the period.
We anticipate a more favorable development in Europe. On the one hand, in developed European markets, we believe there is still some growth potential for pay TV and that the level of prices will limit the impact of competition on linear TV offers. On the other hand, Central and Eastern European countries offer a high growth potential.
Outside these areas and Japan, the development of OTT offers, which will come later, will not weigh on the growth of the traditional broadcasting market over that period.

Jacques BAJON
Head of the Video Distribution Practice
j.bajon@idate.org

Visit our blog to read the full article

N�588 - Some thoughts on the new iPad 3 -

2012-03-08

The new iPad unveiled by Apple yesterday was much as expected. Rumors during the run-up proved fairly accurate when it came to the main features of this third version of Apple�s tablet (especially retina display and 4G) and we believe that this update is a fairly solid response to what competitors have been able to produce so far. No groundbreaking features but rather improvements aimed at strengthening Apple�s position in the market.

Basile Carle, our Senior Consultant about Mobile Devices & Platforms, gives his thoughts and opinions about this product launch and its impacts on the industry.

Read his article on our official blog

http://blog.idate.fr

N�587 - DigiWorld Summit 2012 - Game Changers -

2012-03-05

The next DigiWorld building up through today's Game Changers

How can we approach this new digital world, going beyond today's topical issues of the digital industries?
IDATE's teams sugest we could detect the key innovation and transformation factors of the markets, focusing the debate on 3 Game Changers' combined implications.

Mobile Everywhere (The Broadband Mobile Momentum)

- Is there a limit to the speed of the new cellular Gen?
- Broadband Mobile monetization: the revenues and pricing issues to face the investments
- Mobile Internet Ecosystem and the battle of the platforms: the migration to the cloud
- Mobile Internet & Big Data: who knows what about you in a Mobile World? The new business models and the privacy issues�

Content in the Cloud

- What online distribution scenarios are emerging for TV in the era of the cloud? What changes in viewer behaviour are driving these developments?
- What interplay between managed and cloud services?
- Is quality of service still a critical issue with fibre systems?
- How to manage a multi-screen environment, DRM, audience measurement and payment issues?
- What impact will all this have on the top video industry players?

Big Data

- From traffic to data explosion�
- Who knows what on the customers� habits and profiles?
- What is the usage and place of these data in the business models of the digital players (fixed and mobile telcos, apps & transaction platforms, search engines, social platforms, eCommerce and payTV�)?
- What is called to change with the �Big Data� era?
- Privacy: How the customers� perception is evolving? Is there room for value creation in the personal data monitoring and storage?

Stay connected!

DigiWorld Summit 2012 website opening soon

N�586 - World Internet Usages & Markets -

2012-03-01

IDATE has just published its new edition of �World Internet Usages & Markets� report. This report provides data and forecasts on Internet services markets � usage and revenue, by country and region. It covers Europe, North America and Asia, and analyses both the major trends in each segment and the market�s key players.

�The revenues of key services (online search, video-sharing, social networking and e-commerce) will experience double-digit growth, reaching more than EUR 108 billion for online advertising in 2016.� comments Soichi Nakajima, Project Leader and senior consultant at IDATE. �This solid growth will nevertheless be limited in 2012 by fears of a recession. E-commerce is another industry heavyweight, with smaller margins but with an estimated turnover of over EUR 1,300 billion by 2016�

The Internet economy

The revenues from the Internet economy considered in IDATE�s recent study are of three types:

1. Revenues related to advertising, which in 2011 accounted for almost EUR 53 billion worldwide

2. E-commerce, with a global turnover of EUR 717 billion in 2011, and operating margins obviously much lower than advertising

3. Revenues from fee-based services and content. This study focuses exclusively on feebased video services, which generated a turnover of EUR 3.7 billion in 2011.

1. The Online advertising market

The online advertising market is highly concentrated around a few support websites. Google accounted for nearly 50% of global income from online advertising in 2011 (almost EUR 27 billion). Facebook is still not terribly strong in this market, earning just over 3 billion EUR in 2001, only slightly less than Yahoo! whose income is tumbling. In order to better compete with Google, Microsoft and Yahoo! but also Facebook and Microsoft have in fact joined forces, strengthening the oligopolistic effect. Google, Facebook, Microsoft and Yahoo! are also major players in most national markets, with the exception of China � where Baidu and QQTencent reign supreme � and South Korea (NHN/Naver,

Daum�).

The online advertising market is more fragmented upstream of the value chain: the advertising segment is rather dispersed, and the search marketing solutions, made affordable through high automation, make this advertising medium accessible to a large number of advertisers, even modest ones (SMEs). All major support websites (portals such as AuFeminin, news portals, ISPs, etc.) seek to develop their own advertising activity on the fixed Internet.

2. The E-commerce market

The turnover of e-commerce will continue to grow steadily, with double-digit growth rates, reaching more than EUR 1,340 billion in 2016. E-commerce still represents only 1% to 8% of retail sales and its growth will be fuelled by several factors:

� An increasing number of Internet users (particularly in China);

� An increasing number of Internet users shopping and paying online, particularly in countries where e-commerce is still relatively incipient, such as Italy and Spain;

� An increase in the average annual purchase volume per buyer.

� On the other hand, new sales strategies, including the integration with social networks or localised bundled offers (such as the successful Groupon website, which offers attractive local discount coupons whose validity is subject to a sufficient number of buyers).

� Lastly, unlike advertising, e-commerce seems more immune to the financial crisis as consumers turn to the Web to find the best prices.

3.Revenues from fee-based services

Although the Internet economy is dominated by advertising revenues associated with free services, some players are able to charge consumers for value added services or digital content (as streaming or download).

Online video in particular is a major segment of online content, with a strong monetization potential through fee-based services, particularly with fixed access, and will continue to grow to represent a market of over EUR 12 billion in 2016 in OTT distribution (especially in relation to connected TVs).

The Emerging M-Commerce

Mobile commerce has emerged with the purchase of media content (ringtones, music, etc.). It will develop with other types of digital assets, such as travel and event ticketing. Physical assets are following, already representing more than 40% of m-commerce activities in Japan. M-commerce is particularly well represented in Japan, where it reached over EUR 10 billion in 2011. The other markets, still far behind Japan, should experience growth rates above 50% per year.

Market growth will be driven by different factors:

� Deployment of broadband mobile networks (3G and LTE);

� The spread of smartphones with easy browsing capabilities on mobile websites, and payment solutions adapted to the device;

� Commercial strategies of online merchants, promoting the use of mobile services as an extension of their standard (i.e., fixed) website. EBay reports EUR 2 billion in revenues from mobile consumers in 2010, or 1.5% of its total turnover.

Download Press Release

You can also visit our blog for more researches and results

N�585 - Apps & the mobile Internet -

2012-02-27

Mobile Internet is here and geared for growth, despite the global recession. For 2016 the worldwide penetration rate of Mobile Internet will reach 34.7% - or 2.89 billion users - generating service revenues (apps and advertising) of 43.3 billion EUR. IDATE has published a report dedicated to the mobile Internet providing its readers with detailed information about market's structure, data & forecasts 2008-2016, player profiles and strategies. It also spotlights the current and upcoming trends and the different kinds of mobile Internet usages.

�Since the introduction of the Apple App Store, the focus in the mobile Internet has been mainly on the �Battle of the OS�. This is now seemingly all but over, with Apple and Google in a victorious duopoly. The scenario has now shifted to the �Battle of the platforms�, with players such as FaceBook and Amazon, who do not own an OS, joining the fray, and who are providing alternative platforms which aim to bypass the native OS system�, says Soichi Nakajima, senior consultant at IDATE

Focus on the tablet market

It is just recently in 2010 that the tablet market started growing with the introduction of Apple iPad. In 2010, around 19 million tablets were sold, 16 million of them by Apple, which even in 2011 remained the clear leader.

Contrary to the smartphone market where Android has reached a leader position, the tablet market is still by far dominated by one manufacturer. Apple indeed has the advantage of being the first mover and different factors have hindered any significant growth by Android.

� Even when the Android Honeycomb was released, the Tablet OS was still a beta version, which found it difficult to compete with the already mature iOS. Because of this beta status of Android for tablets, Google only distributed the OS to selected partners. This resulted in some manufacturers launching products powered by the smartphone version of Android. This also led to voices being raised against Google for not respecting the Open Source agreement that tied it to the developer community. Although several improvements were gradually brought to Honeycomb, the next version of Android, known as Ice Cream Sandwich (Android 4.0), should bring more maturity to the system.

� The delayed and restricted release of Honeycomb along with its associated SDK did not help, leading to a lack of available apps adapted to tablets. While Apple App Store and Google Android Market are more or less on a par on the smartphone segment, they are still worlds apart in terms of tablet specific app catalogues. As of end Q3 2011, the App Store

referenced 140,000 different iPad specific apps while there were comparatively few of them on the Android market

� The fact that the tablet is a new segment has enabled other tablet operating systems to gain some visibility, such as QNX OS that powers RIM Playbook or WebOS which powered HP Touchpad devices. Although these tablets were not hugely successful, they brought differentiated user experience in a world where it is very difficult to differentiate oneself in the Android ecosystem

In the near future, it can be expected that Apple will gradually lose its market share as their competitors gradually come up with better counter-offers. What happened on the smartphone market will be repeated on the tablet market, although probably at a quicker pace. On the smartphone market, it took two years before competitors started having true �iPhone killer� products. For tablets we expect Android to pass iOS in terms of sales in 2013. One big question mark is related to legal disputes on the market for patent infringement issues.

You can also read our studies and researches on our official blog

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N�584 - Net Neutrality -

2012-02-22

DigiWorld Institute by IDATE has recently published its market report �Net Neutrality � Core issues and business models� which explores the technical-economic issues surrounding Net neutrality and its current status in markets around the globe. It also delivers analysis of the traffic management practices and technical measures needed to control costs. And, finally, looks at the new business models we are seeing emerge through an examination of stakeholders� models, along with synthesis of the state of affairs in each country.

�The many debates that have taken place over Net neutrality these past several years have now been whittled down to chiefly technical-economic questions over network financing, taking into account the increase in traffic and the need for on-going services. A host of players now make up the value chain (IP transit providers, CDNs, ISPs, service and content providers, users) all operating very different business models and all looking to capitalise on the basic rules that enabled the Web�s development�, says Vincent Bonneau, Director of the Internet Business Unit at DigiWorld Insitute by IDATE. �But when it comes to the Internet�s overall business model the status quo does seem hard to maintain. Some longstanding rules could be called into question, especially the system of settlement-free peering now with the rise of asymmetrical traffic, along with offers of unlimited traffic that are often extended to users.�

Status of Net neutrality around the world

The degree to which Net neutrality debates have progressed � as much in terms of identified issues (ISPs� traffic management measures, operators� and content providers� stated positions, etc.) as regulation (sector-specific or under general competition laws) varies a great deal from country to country. Even within each country we find disparate approaches being taken to fixed and mobile networks. The Netherlands is in fact the only country among those being examined here that has introduced specific Net neutrality legislation for mobile networks. It was joined by Chile which became the first country in the world to introduce Net neutrality into Law in July 2010.

The debate has picked up steam in Europe over the past several years, even if concrete instances of traffic management practices, notably on fixed networks, are still rare. But European regulators are not necessarily looking to introduce severe sector-specific regulation, and continue to work more on encouraging competition. In addition to intra-modal competition, regulators can also draw on the Telecoms Package for provisos concerning traffic management practices. Any identified problems are today being handled chiefly by soft laws or general competition law, as has been the case in Italy (P2P) and in Germany (mobile VoIP), with the Netherlands standing out as an exception, with Belgium due to follow suit.

An analysis of 13 countries in Europe, North America and Oceania reveals several similarities in:

� The content and services targeted by traffic management measures. Although the Net neutrality debate aims to be one of general principles, it often focuses on a few services and types of content, namely P2P file sharing and online video (UGC and catch-up TV) on fixed networks, and VoIP (or SMS over IP) and P2P on mobile networks. Discussions centre on who should finance the network (especially wireline ones), and/or on bottlenecks and, to a lesser degree, on operators� ability to favour their own managed services over services delivered on the open Web. Access providers that are introducing traffic management measures on P2P are endeavouring mainly to alleviate bottlenecks, while those applying differentiation measures to video are working to ensure financing for their network.

� Volume-based billing and bandwidth throttling and capping. Volume-based billing is virtually ubiquitous on mobile and cable networks. AT&T and Deutsche Telekom were among the first telcos to (re)introduce this approach on their wireline networks. So the issue of network financing becomes a different one since, in addition to there being a traffic cap, customers� will either see their charges vary according to the traffic they generate or their available bitrate diminished. Volume-based billing is applied across the board in Australia which, due to a geographical particularity � i.e. most traffic comes from the rest of the world and is routed in via costly undersea cables � cannot offer unlimited access plans. So the Net neutrality debate there is focused mainly on bottlenecks, even if network financing remains an important topic of discussion as well.

� Major local content and service providers� often heavy use of CDN solutions. All of the Web�s major players are working to improve the availability of their content and services through traffic optimisation solutions. The Internet�s titans are installing their own infrastructure, in particular to develop their own content delivery networks. Major telcos such as France Telecom, Telef�nica and AT&T are also becoming interested in content delivery networks.

� The European regulatory framework and various approaches across the EU. Aside from Norway and the Netherlands on the matter of mobile networks, all European countries are focused more on inter-modal competition for access provision than on Net neutrality, per se, as it creates a more competitive marketplace. This therefore creates a situation that makes differentiation impossible unless all operators apply it. Otherwise customers will naturally chose the operators who are not billing based on traffic or QoS. European players also have a common regulatory framework on transparency in traffic management practices with the Telecoms Package.

Project Manager

Vincent Bonneau

________________

Contacts

Vincent Bonneau

Internet Business Unit Director

DigiWorld Institute by IDATE

v.bonneau@idate.org

You can read his analysis and researches on our official blog

Download the official press release

Learn more about this new study

N�583 - Global LTE : 830 million subscribers in 2016 -

2012-02-21

IDATE provides regular analyses of the main trends shaping the world�s mobile markets: networks, devices and services. DigiWorld by IDATE have teamed up to publish the new edition of its special White Paper: �LTE 2012 - Markets & Trends� to coincide with the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona (27 February-1 March 2012).

- Download the complete report - LTE 2012: Markets & Trends

- Download press release

- More analyses and figures on our blog

Meet us at the Mobile World Congress

� Schedule a meeting with our Consultants in Barcelona b.sikanic@idate.org

� International Telecom Operators Meeting

28 February 2012, 5:00pm, Hall 4, nivel 9, Frederic Pujol (IDATE) presentation on �LTE 2012 and Forecasts�

Invitation and programme upon request: i.jimenez@idate.org

N�582 - FTTH/B in Europe -

2012-02-17

During the FTTH Council Conference in Munich, Germany (15&16 February), Roland Montagne - one of the world leading FTTx experts and Director of the Telecom Business Unit at IDATE � has announced the European FTTH panorama in behalf of the FTTH Council Europe this Wednesday.

�Main European economies are now on tracks for FTTH/B: France presents a 34% growth in terms of subscribers in 2011, and Spain is progressing fast being very near to enter FTTH Global Ranking� says Roland Montagne

You can read his analysis and researches on our official blog

Download the official press release

N�581 - Radio Spectrum -

2012-02-01

Montpellier, 27 January 2012 � IDATE provides readers of its yearly published market report �Radio Spectrum- 4G: the mobile broadband bottleneck?� an overview of the latest trends in the field of radio spectrum, which in 2011 included: Digital Dividend availability and prospects for a second Digitale Dividend, the deployment of LTE in the 1800 MHz band, allocation and use of the 2.6 GHz band, new frequency bands such as the L-Band and the advent of cognitive radios with the first white-spaces developments.

�The search for new spectrum is very active in Europe and in the USA in order to provide resources for the mobile broadband expansion as we observe fast-growing mobile broadband uptake�, says Frederic Pujol, Head of the Mobile and Spectrum Practice at IDATE.

The main radio spectrum trends in 2011

� Digital Dividend availability,

� deployment of LTE in the 1800 MHz band,

� allocation and use of the 2.6 GHz band,

� new frequency bands such as the L-Band

� and the advent of cognitive radios with the first white spaces developments.

Digital Dividend

� There is a growing interest in a �Second Digital Dividend� in Europe where mobile services could be introduced below the existing 790-862 MHz frequency band. This could provide benefits in terms of international harmonisation but is only a very long-term prospect.

� The analogue switch-off is under way in Europe and will be finalised by end-2011 in most countries. Auctions took place in Germany in May 2010 and in 2011 in Spain and Sweden. Other countries are following but timetables are fragmented across Europe.

� LTE commercial services in the Digital Dividend started in 2010 in the USA and in Germany.

� In the USA, the Digital Dividend spectrum was auctioned in 2008 and LTE services are developing as Verizon Wireless launched its LTE network in the 700 MHz band at the end of 2010.

� Interference issues with Digital TV and Cable TV networks and (Programme Making and Special Events (PMSE) still have to be solved.

Factors playing a role in spectrum valuation

The value of the spectrum depends on the following factors:

� Mobile traffic growth automatically increases the value of harmonised spectrum

� Frequency band: spectrum below 1 GHz has the best characteristics for mobile services. Spectrum in the 2.6 GHz band is likely to be much more expensive than in the 3.5 GHz band due to the ecosystem for 4G in this band and better propagation characteristics;

� In the 2.6 GHz band, the split made by the NRAs or spectrum agencies between FDD and TDD spectrum affects the valuation of the spectrum as it almost determines the technology that will be used (Mobile WiMAX in TDD spectrum and HSPA/LTE in FDD spectrum);

� Harmonised spectrum or not � degree of harmonisation;

� �Quality� of spectrum:

- Possibility of using 20 MHz duplex channels for broadband services using LTE for instance;

- Potential for interference: UWB or not, situation of adjacent channels, coordination necessary or not � such as at borders or with adjacent users;

- Type of radio planning, including traditional and �BEM� type;

- Middle-of-the-band or edge-of-the-band (for instance, in the 2.6 GHz band): has an impact on the potential for interference, on the cost of the base station filters for mobile operators;

- Timetable for real availability of the spectrum (some portions of the spectrum often need to be freed by existing users).

� Availability of new technologies: LTE will bring more flexibility with its ability to use channels from 1.25 MHz to 20 MHz. It will give more value to small frequency bands which could not accommodate the 5 MHz channels of UMTS;

� Spectrum aggregation: this technical innovation increases the value of isolated spectrum such as the L-Band which had a limited interest due to its �non-FDD� nature (a single and isolated frequency block is available). The supplemental downlink functionality will offer mobile operators the possibility to add spectrum for downlink traffic only.

� Geographical location/ National or regional licenses; the latter have a much lower valuation;

� External factors such as the state of financial markets in the world, which affects the possibilities of borrowing money on the markets;

� Regulatory constraints: too many regulatory constraints, such as the ones imposed on the �D� block of the 700 MHz auctions in the USA, reduce the interest of potential bidders.

Project Manager

Fr�d�ric PUJOL

N�580 - Hybrid TV Prospects -

2012-01-25

IDATE has published recently its market report �Hybrid TV Prospects, Impacts of Connected TV�. This study aims to position the hybrid solutions in this new context and to measure their impact on the "big" TV markets.

�Hybrid TV is now a reality. The appealing for OTT video content, amplified by the development of connected TV solutions, is further spurring this trend�, says Jacques Bajon, Head of Distribution Video Practice at DigiWorld Institute. �These developments are attracting the attention of the big Internet companies who will throw themselves into the trend and surely have an impact on the key segments in the video distribution chain.�

IDATE estimates the market for OTT video services on the TV at EUR 3.4 billion in 2015

The market for video services on connected TVs is still only taking shape, as we see the first hints of how players are positioning themselves and how they are structuring their service offerings. Though virtually non-existent in 2010, this market is set to explode. IDATE estimates the market for OTT video services on the TV will be EUR 3.4 billion in 2015, with the following geographic breakdown:

- United States: 40%

- Europe: 24%

- Rest of the world: 36%

Trends in hybrid�s development and positioning of hybrid solutions

Hybrid solutions seem to be positioned in one of four ways:

1. Two-way broadcast: The DTT/broadband or satellite/broadband hybrid network is becoming the leading network for distributing packaged on-demand and linear offerings.

2. Cable and IPTV extension: DTT/broadband or satellite/broadband hybrid solutions provide additional coverage to the TV offerings of managed network operators.

3. Competition with cable and IPTV: The DTT/broadband or satellite/broadband hybrid network offers an alternative to cable and IPTV services.

4. Optimization of wired networks: Hybrid solutions help alleviate congestion on wired networks, which prioritize Internet access quality over the distribution of managed video services. The potential of hybrid TV distribution varies by market:

�In the US, the trade-offs made by cable and IPTV operators will determine the directionthe hybrid market takes. Satellite may still capitalize on this solution to counter these operators� triple play offerings.

�In Germany, the hybrid TV landscape will primarily depend on how quickly cable migrates to digital and IP. If the current trend plays out, these operators will play a central role along the same lines as their American counterparts. If not, FTA satellite operators will have the trump card.

�In France, where IPTV penetration is extremely high, hybrid could take multiple forms, depending on operators� strategies. The situation could go one of two ways�cooperation between wired and broadcast operators to provide additional coverage or close competition between networks where the full IP migration of the wired operators would go up against hybrid�s vague efforts in the FTA DTT TV segment.

�The UK is the most advanced hybrid market today thanks to the broadcast/OTT combination. This trend will continue, and FTA TV operators will reap the rewards.

�In Spain, DTT will play a central role. The DTT + OTT combination will dominate, with additional opportunities for wired operators to expand their coverage using the terrestrial network.

�Italy is the country with the most potential for gain from hybridization. The "absence" of two-way TV networks clears the way for partnerships between OTT and broadcast (DTT and satellite) to dominate.

Project Manager

Jacques Bajon

For more news, you can also visit our blog

N�579 - E-Book -

2012-01-10

IDATE has released recently its report "E-Book� which takes an in-depth look at the e-book market, and provides industry figures for 2008 to 2015. It breaks down the new digital value chain, identifies stakeholder strategies through some 20 case studies, details their business models and analyses the core technical issues (formats and portability, DRM, electronic ink, etc.).

�We expect the worldwide digital books market to grow at an average rate of 30% per year between 2010 and 2015 to reach 5.4 billion EUR in 2015, some 12% of the total book market. E-Book readers will also develop fast from 3.3 million units sold in 2010 to 29.8 million units sold in 2015, representing a 24% growth rate per year,�says Sophie Lubrano, project manager at IDATE. �Currently electronic-ink displays are the only solution for a comfortable reading experience, but the hybridization of tablets or other portable devices with e-reader will clearly be the compelling answer in a near future.�

E-book markets are still on the rise

Digital book markets will continue to grow in the coming years:

� North America, a mature market, is expected to soon be reaching its cruising speed, with an average annual growth rate of 13% between 2012 and 2015. At that time, sales of e-books are expected to generate a turnover of around EUR 2.2 billion.

� Currently catching up, the five major European countries will experience higher growth on the same period, to reach in 2015 an overall turnover of about EUR 1.4 billion for an average annual growth rate of 30% over that period.

� Japan should experience a more chaotic development. While the annual growth rate of e-book sales appears to be stabilising around 12% in 2011 and 2012, the Japanese market should rebound in 2014, and even more in 2015. This dynamism can be especially explained by a rise in e-book sales on tablets and e-readers, in parallel to historical sales levels on smartphones. At that time, sales of digital books in Japan should total around EUR 1.7 billion, still ahead of the European top 5 market.

In addition, 2015 market share forecasts in terms of value and volume establish a clear distinction between two groups of countries in addition to the particular case of Japan, which corresponds neither to the North American model, nor to the continental European model.The most advanced countries in terms of market share are the US, Canada and the UK. In terms of value, these markets should range from 13% for the UK to 18% for the United States. In terms of volume, the 2015 market share should reach 35% in the US, against 21% in the UK.

Analysis of the growth/disruption factors

The development of digital book markets is determined by four major factors.

The digital book offer

The digital book offer reflects the mind-set of publishers with respect to digital works. Outside the US, the catalogues available in each language remain relatively modest in size and should increase significantly in coming years.
In general, publishers opt for providing an electronic version of their new releases before embarking on the digitisation of their back catalogue.What is more, new genres historically adverse to the digital world are now converted into e-books since the advent of color tablets. Examples include comics, art books, photo books and cookbooks.

The price difference between digital and paper versions

After the offer of available contents, the price is the second determining factor in the rapid rise in e-book sales. In the United States, where the price of digital books is not regulated, an average price difference between printed books and e-books of almost 50% was recorded in 2010. Conversely, the difference is only 20% in France and does not encourage consumers to migrate to digital media.By 2015, the various markets of the study should have reached a price difference of at least 44% (Italy, United Kingdom, Germany), and up to 60% in the United States.The average price of an e-book on a given market depends largely on the regulatory framework in place. In countries where the price is not regulated, retailers regularly offer significant discounts on the books sold under the wholesale model for the benefit of consumers. Conversely, in countries where the sales price of e-books is regulated, publishers are able to harness and control the market�s evolution, and prices fall more slowly.As a rule of thumb, to achieve mass consumption, an e-book should always be less expensive than the paperback version.

The presence of "big player" retailers

The take-off of a market also depends on the presence of powerful players able to cater their customers with attractive reading ecosystems. Globally, this highly competitive status is currently only coveted by Amazon, Apple and, eventually, Google. Although significantly smaller in size, Kobo has also opted for an international presence.Locally, the markets are developing under the influence of national players such as the major print booksellers also involved in e-book sales and a few large telecom operators.The digital book markets will be driven by the increasing penetration of connected reading devices: tablets and e-readers. On the one hand, the display technologies of tablets should improve, especially to reduce the backlight�s aggressiveness and the daylight reflections. On the other hand, e-readers based on electronic ink should gain in power and speed, and eventually offer color and video support. In addition, device prices should continue to drop (less than EUR 100 for e-readers), while the spread of connectivity (3G, Wi-Fi) will foster compulsive e-books purchases among consumers.

Project Manager
Sophie Lubrano

For more news about DigiWorld IDATE, you can also visit our blog

N�577 - Polish Mobile Telecommunications market -

2011-12-16

IDATE is proposing a market report on the booming Polish Telecoms market, with an analysis focused on polish mobile operators namely Orange, PTC, Polkomtel and P4.

At the end of 2010, there were 46.6 million mobile subscriptions in Poland, translating to a penetration rate of 121.3%, up from 117.2% a year before. According to the European Commission, the Polish market penetration is in the 7th bottom place among the 27 countries of the Community in 2010. The fixed network market was impacted by the rapidly growing segment of mobile telephony, which is a substitute for services provided at a fixed location. Therefore the segment is characterized by a steady reduction in its value in terms of revenue and in the number of subscribers. On another side, the Internet market in Poland was developing rapidly seen in the growing value of the segment and the number of clients. Nearly 6 million people had broadband fixed-line access and approximately 2,8 million mobile Internet access.

Prospects are bright for the next two years especially on the data segment. Indeed, mobile broadband services are flourishing and adoption rates are strong. The prospects for Poland telecom development reside in the ability to invest in solutions based on NGN. Particularly, the coverage of all inhabited areas of the country, will expand the availability of advanced services and will be a guarantee of high quality telecom infrastructure.

� Orange and PTC benefit from experience of their mother company respectively France Telecom and Deutsche Telekom and thus from the reputation brand. Recently, PTC has rebranded its post-paid offers to T-Mobil to take advantage of its German parent group's global image. Polkomtel has just been acquired by Polish media Zygmunt Solorz-Zak and was previously owned by Vodafone. On the other hand, P4 is planned to be divested by its owners.

� In terms of operational status, Orange, PTC and Polkomtel represent quite 90% of the global mobile market. They are established operators within the Polish market. Orange and PTC have strong footprints with their fixed and mobile integrated services and Polkomtel an enterprise network services.

� As a new entrant such as Yoigo in Spain or Free Mobile in France, the position of P4 is challenging as it has to conclude roaming agreements with its rivals (Polkomtel) to increase its network coverage. P4 also adopts an aggressive pricing strategy to size subscriber base and thus attracts middle and low end users unlike its high reputable competitors.

� P4 has decided to select a unique radio access network equipment supplier namely Huawei to deploy its infrastructure. Generally MNO prefers to rely on multiple suppliers. It needs to be mentioned that P4�s EUR1.1 billion network development program has been heavily supported by the China Development Bank (CDB).

Finally P4 is today in a challenging position. Indeed we have to point out their new entrant position and then a certain lack of telecom operation experiences as well as a small size of their current network and related subscribers base. Concerning their financial structure it has to be mentioned that their also depending heavily on vendor financing. Furthermore it is surprising that the current stakeholders planned to divest the operator since 2010 and that no major telecom players have shown interest not for the case of Polkomtel. All those factors make P4 position not comfortable today on the Polish mobile market.

>The report is available upon request.
Ask for a PDF free copy: Isabel Jimenez, i.jimenez@idate.org

N�577 - Internet of Things: Call for papers -

2012-02-16

Communication & Strategies has launched its new "call for papers"

for the September edition dedicated to "IoT"

The Internet of Things (IoT) endows objects with intelligence and ability to communicate, connecting people and machines anywhere, anytime. IoT applications exist in various domains: health, domotics, security and control, the
supply chain. IoT exemplifies - and is driven by - major changes in technological convergence, pervasiveness and ubiquity, increases in mobility, traceability, and so on. As a consequence, IoT impacts upon management, business models, the economy as a whole, social relations, public and private relations, the control and diffusion of information, the involvement of citizens in public debate, privacy, transparency,

More informations

N�576 - Net Neutrality : Act II -

2012-02-24

Net Neutrality : Act II

Edited by
Vincent BONNEAU, Nicolas CURIEN & Winston MAXWELL

Montpellier, December 01, 2011 � IDATE has just published its latest COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES dossier dedicated to "Net Neutrality: Act II".

What are the minimum regulatory tools needed to ensure an acceptable level of net neutrality while giving network operators flexibility to innovate and manage their networks? Act I of the debate resembled a war of religion, each side rejecting out of hand the other's philosophy. In Act II, market actors have understood that neutrality is not a binary topic and that the subject must be addressed in a collective and collaborative way for the sake of achieving economic and social efficiency. The debate has progressively shifted and focused on several key issues that are essential to the design of a well-functioning neutrality: (i) traffic management, (ii) IP interconnection arrangements, (iii) transparency, (iv) price differentiation and markets for enhanced quality, and (v) the setting up a suitable regulatory framework. Such are the main stakes of "Net Neutrality: Act II" and the focus of this special issue of COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES.

Exclusive:

The interview with Jean-Bernard L�VY,
CEO, VIVENDI
Conducted by Yves GASSOT (IDATE)

C&S: Does the fact that your company is involved in the telecoms sector (SFR, Maroc Telecom, GVT) as well as the TV (Canal Plus), movies (Studiocanal), music (Universal Music) and gaming industries (Activision Blizzard) give you a unique perspective and position on the Net neutrality debate?
Jean-Bernard L�VY: Vivendi is involved in numerous parts of the digital value chain: we create and publish content, we run service platforms that we make available to our customers and we deploy and operate infrastructure networks.
Every year, Vivendi invests over �5 billion (distributed equally) in content creation and acquisition, in platforms and network technologies.
Vivendi has a balanced approach to the net neutrality debate as we advocate both for the most diversified and innovative legal content offers and a robust and reliable network to provide a strong basis for content creation and interactive services.

C&S: You were personally involved, along with the CEOs of Alcatel-Lucent and Deutsche Telekom, in organising widespread discussions between ICT sector players, and in presenting recommendations for improving Europe's role in digital industries to Neelie Kroes in July. What part did the Net neutrality issue play in these discussions and the resulting recommendations?
J.-B. L.: Vice-President Neelie Kroes took the initiative to ask Ben Verwaayen, Ren� Obermann and myself whether we would accept a mission on behalf of the Industry to come forward with concrete proposals on how to address broadband investment.
As you know, the Digital Agenda for Europe aims to ensure that very fast internet access will be available to all European citizens thanks to the deployment of next generation networks. This Agenda sets very ambitious and specific targets in infrastructure deployment. One of the objectives is to provide basic broadband coverage for all EU citizens and businesses by 2013 and Internet coverage of 30 Mbps or above for all Europeans by 2020.
Nevertheless, Europe is far behind schedule on this target. As stated in the Commission Digital Agenda Scoreboard (published 31-05-2011):
"The deployment and take-up of ultra-fast broadband is still low, and only 5% of all fixed lines deliver speeds of 30 Mbps and above, although 28.7% of households could have access to such speeds if they wanted to".
To come forward with concrete proposals to achieve the Digital Agenda targets required intensive work during 4 months between more than 40 companies. The discussions focused around three main topics:
� Possible new business models for Internet development;
� Interoperability and standardization issues for next generation access and networks;
� Investment framework/models and financing sources to foster NGA roll-out.
In early July, we converged on 11 points, of which some touch on net neutrality discussions directly. In proposing a new ecosystem between over-the-top players and ISPs, we achieved a big step forward.

C&S: Vivendi has a great deal of experience in the American market. Do you think that the Net neutrality debate is being approached on the same terms on both sides of the Atlantic?
J.-B. L.: It is indeed relevant to compare Europe and the US on this issue, although there are significant differences.
On our side, we have seen the net neutrality issue being built and developed in the United States over the last three years by a coalition of Internet players, including Google. Until autumn 2009, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) limited itself to setting out four open-Internet principles listed in the 2005 Internet Policy Statement, according to which consumers:
- can access the lawful Internet content of their choice,
- can run applications and use services of their choice,
- can connect their choice of legal devices that do not harm the network,
- are entitled to competition among network providers, application and service providers, and content providers.
Since 2009, only 2 new principles have been introduced by the FCC, according to which broadband providers:
- cannot discriminate against particular Internet content or applications (non discrimination),
- must be transparent about their network management practices.
The FCC approach to the net neutrality issue echoes a situation in the United States where the broadband market has structured itself into a duopoly. Consumers can access the services of either a cable or ADSL operator. The relatively limited competition results in a comparatively high subscription fee of above 100 dollars monthly for the equivalent of a triple-play offer.
In France, contrary to the United States, there has been significant investment from alternative operators over the past ten years. This competitive situation translated into monthly triple-play fees of only 30 euros. Therefore the economic balance is very delicate for the handful of players who have been able to survive.

C&S: Although the intensity of Net neutrality discussions has not abated for several years now, we do get the impression of having moved past the staunchly ideological stage of conflict between the "libertarian" stance and the position taken by telcos. Discussions today seem to be structured more around specific points, such as the role and potential place of managed services vs. Best effort. What, for you, are the crucial points that need to be considered?
J.-B. L.: The main challenge ahead is to define how networks are able to handle the explosion of traffic on the internet and to design a framework that will create incentives for investment in networks and infrastructure.
In the short term, optimizing the use of bandwidth appears increasingly essential to manage networks effectively and avoid congestion, especially during peak hours. Traffic management techniques allow a better end-user experience regarding applications, content and services, notably through guaranteed quality of service and a more efficient use of the telecom operators' network resource.
Access to Best effort Internet is a service valued by the customers. Best effort internet is and should continue to be the "by default" option for all players, which means that consumers will continue to access all the content and applications they want. However there is a general desire for the market to explore other alternatives where all players might create more value out of content, applications and services.
That is why, at the July CEO Roundtable, the Industry recommended the creation of two-sided business models in the broadband market.
Two sided markets applied to telecoms would mean that, downstream, there is a relationship between ISPs and consumers, and, upstream, possibly but optionally, contractual relations between ISPs and content or online service providers to offer enhanced managed services.
The opportunity to develop upstream wholesale offers in the telecom market will enable very positive effect in leveraging the R&D of telecom operators to the benefit of content & service editors and, basically, allow some very specific services to keep working on the internet. It will also give ISPs stronger incentives to invest in next generation networks such as fibre, and thus ensure a better service for consumers.

C&S: Universal Music became a pioneer in bundling access and services when it rolled out a music service for SFR subscribers, while Canal+ has increased its presence on the open web by launching innovative new services. What lessons have you drawn from these innovations? From your experience, does the Net neutrality debate result in operational cooperation between telcos and the top content aggregators, in particular to improve the quality of over-the-top services delivered to internet users?
J.-B. L.: Yes, absolutely. One of the key ideas that came out of the CEO Roundtable was to develop new commercial relationships between ISPs and over the top / content / service providers.
In online music, SFR and Universal Music Group (UMG) have both been pioneers in launching innovative services. SFR was the first telecom operator in France to launch an online store to download music on mobile devices and to allow ADSL customers to stream music on a large catalogue of titles. UMG is the world leader for digital music and has signed, in France, over 40 partnerships with online music platforms.
What we see as a general trend is that the market is moving progressively from download to subscription offers. SFR recently signed a deal with Spotify and all record companies (including, of course, UMG) to integrate its unlimited streaming music service to SFR subscription offerings.
Spotify is an interesting example since it has built its service on a very low bandwidth consumption profile. In fact, the service has been designed to allow people to store their playlists locally so they are able to play their music even if the connection is low or not available. This partnership is an example among many others of the trend towards more sophisticated relationships between over-the-top players and ISPs.
In the audiovisual and movie industries, we are also witnessing significant changes under the influence of Internet and particularly connected TV. This is why, in addition to regular broadcasting, Group Canal+ has been developing IP-related offers for several years now. These provide multi-screen viewing experiences allowing customers to watch their favourite programs anywhere and on any device (smartphones, tablets, PC, game consoles, etc.). They also include new on-demand services such as catch up TV and transactional VOD, as well as enhanced viewing experience with customized Electronic Program Guides or streaming stats during live sport events.
Even more recently, Group Canal+ announced the launch of CANALPLAY Infinity, an ambitious subscription VOD (sVOD) offer that will be available over all managed networks, as well as over-the-top on XBOX and connected Samsung TV. At SFR, the service will be integrated directly in the box interface so that subscribers will have the easiest access to it.
This example shows that both best effort and managed services can coexist and serve various objectives.

C&S: Presuming that distributing services in the cloud is inevitable, how do you see the future of the home box? Is it a crucial asset for providers?
J.-B. L.: Network and customer relationship are both essential assets for ISPs. The box bridges these two components: it is the network termination point and it materializes the ISP presence at the customer's home.
The box is progressively enhanced and improved to reflect the technology shifts and to meet consumer demand. The NeufBox Evolution for example is compatible with Fiber, Femto, 3G and ADSL. Moreover, the NeufBox Evolution is "green": it has an economy-mode function, it is the smallest box on the market and has many functions that provide enhanced Quality of Service and problems diagnosis.
The future versions of the box will integrate new functions to adjust to cloud services and to satisfy the multi-device expectations both at home and when out and about.

C&S: France stands out as a special case when it comes to fibre rollouts, thanks to its system that combines a desire to promote private investment and infrastructure-based competition wherever feasible, with co-investment between operators in medium-density areas and public financing where necessary. What are your views on this system? Do you think it contains elements that could help accelerate the switch from copper to fibre-based access?
J.-B. L.: As a general standpoint, we are obviously willing to invest in fibre infrastructure. SFR is already investing and this investment is going to increase to become massive. However each decision must be driven by a strong sense of pragmatism.
That is why we believe the best way to achieve fibre-roll out in France and, more generally in Europe, is via co-investment. We strongly advocate this model since this is the only way for European actors (both private firms and public authorities) to pool their capital in the most efficient manner possible and share the investment risk.
We are about to take some important decisions in this field, so I guess it is not the best time to have a look at what has been done yet: we have to look forward and focus on how to give a boost to fibre rollout objectives.

Contact
COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES
Sophie NIGON
Managing Editor
s.nigon@idate.org

N�575 - Ultra-fast broadband : 198 million subscribers by 2015 -

2011-02-13

The ultra-fast broadband access market (FTTH/B and VDSL combined) is expected to grow steadily in the coming years, to reach 198 million subscribers around the globe by 2015. Naturally, the rate of progress will not be the same across the board, as each national market will be shaped by the country�s intrinsic features and its players.

Against a backdrop of pioneer rollouts and recent announcements, several questions emerge on the topic of FTTx:

� How is the FTTx market segmented (public vs private initiatives, telcos vs utilities�)?

� At what pace will FTTx networks be deployed, and using which technologies?

� What strategies will the different players employ post-rollout to enhance migration from broadband to FTTx?

� What regulatory measures could impede operators� investments?

� What impact will FTTH have on the current broadband market and competition?

� Which role are cable operators playing and how are they positioning themselves on the market?

Our FTTx Watch Service is specifically designed to provide operators, vendors, government bodies, regulators and local authorities with a comprehensive analysis of the issues affecting this promising market.

DigiWorld by IDATE is also a Partner of FTTH Council Europe and will particpate in its conference which will be held in Munich, Germany, on 14-16 February 2012. The main theme of this edition is �World of Applications�.

Click here to download our newsletter with more figures and analysis

Meet us at our stand during this event....

More informations on FTTH Council Europe website :

http://www.ftthcouncil.eu/

N�574 - IDATE creates the DigiWorld Institute -

2011-11-16

Montpellier, 16 November 2011 � IDATE announces the launch of the DigiWorld Institute at its 33rd annual DigiWorld Summit. The project marks a new stage in IDATE�s development, and aims to provide Europe with a top-tier centre for analysis and forward-thinking on the digital economy.

The difficulty that Europe is having in fully capitalising on the opportunities created by the telecom, internet and media economy is a major source of concern. It is with this in mind that IDATE, which has gained international recognition for its independence and the rigour of its analyses, has worked to create a European think tank that is capable of taking discussions to the next level � elevating them through active market monitoring and proposing new courses of action. For the Institute, this means developing a truly Europe-wide reputation, strengthening its ties with the industry and public authorities, and closely involving a wide circle of experts and academics in its efforts. These are the ambitions and requirements that form the core premises of the newly created DigiWorld Institute.

For IDATE Chairman, Fran�ois Barrault, the challenge is clear: �the next five years will undoubtedly be decisive ones. I am very glad to be rising to meet this challenge with IDATE, its staff and Institute members, to help create an interactive, independent, international forum that is open to all industry players and public authorities�.

There is a specific set of circumstances driving this new stage � as pointed out by Francis Lorentz who, in his former capacity of Chairman of IDATE, oversaw the creation of this new initiative: �while the digital economy is reaching a new stage in its development, despite its many strengths, Europe appears no longer to be among the frontrunners in new generation access network rollouts, in designing innovative devices, developing the mobile internet�s ecosystems or, more generally, in seizing the many opportunities that the digital economy has opened up.�

The core functions of the DigiWorld Institute

The DigiWorld Institute will be structured around three main courses of action:

� An independent observatory: the Digiworld Institute will keep a close and continual watch on digital world industries, collect relevant data and provide benchmark analyses on market developments and innovations in the telecom, internet and media industries. This is something that IDATE has been doing for some time now, through its DigiWorld Yearbook and the DigiWorld Economic Journal, along with its comprehensive collection of market reports and market watch services that are published and made available online throughout the year.

� A time-tested capacity for analysis and research: The Digiworld Institute must be able to identify the core issues the industry will be facing down the road, and to set up collaborative research programmes that will draw on the expertise of its members and in-house teams, in addition to calling out outside experts.

� A European forum open on the world: The Digiworld Institute will take existing IDATE initiatives, such as DigiWorld Summit, and the clubs in Paris, London and Brussels, to the next level.
The work performed will be centred primarily around four main topics: Next Gen Telecom, Next Gen Television, Internet Policy and Smart Cities. All of these topics will be broken down into specific issues, based on the latest developments in the digital economy (FTTH, LTE, Connected TV, NFC, mMoney, eHealth, Net neutrality�)

How the DigiWorld Institute works

An international Scientific Committee. To strengthen its influence in Europe and around the world, the DigiWorld Institute has set up an international Scientific Committee whose main purpose will be to ensure that its annual work programme meets the project�s high standards and targets.

Teams of specialised analysts and consultants. Under the stewardship of CEO, Yves Gassot, and Deputy CEOs, Gilles Fontaine and Jean-Dominique Seval, the teams of analysts and consultants in charge of the DigiWorld Institute�s annual programme, and the analytical work assigned to the Institute are structured into dedicated practices:
� Telecom practices: Telecom economics, Regulation, Mobile services & spectrum, Broadband & FTTx, Networks & equipment, Satellite
� Internet practices: Internet networks & technologies, Internet services, The Internet of things
� TV & Digital content practices: Television & digital content, Digital home & devices, Gaming
� Regional development practices: Networks & local authorities, Digital blueprints, Smart cities

An international network of consultants and partners. The DigiWorld Institute project also draws on a vast network of correspondents and independent experts to help shore up its international market watch and analysis capabilities, and on institutional partnerships to carry out joint projects, including WIK in Germany, KISDI in South Korea and CITI in the United States.

Institute financing. Ensuring its independence and future viability, the Institute is sustained by various sources of income:
� Founding and Corporate members� annual fees;
� Revenue generated by the Institute�s many initiatives: its journal (subscription), its conferences (sponsorship and tickets) and its overseas fact-finding missions;
� The sale of reports published as part of the DigiWorld Observatory,
� The Collaborative Research Programmes conducted every year on the major issues shaping the future of digital industries;
� Industry-sponsored research and consulting assignments for public authorities, and carried out as part of R&D programmes.

The DigiWorld Institute currently enjoys the support of the following companies:

Accenture ● Alcatel-Lucent ● Atos Origin ● AT&T ● Bouygues Telecom ● Bull ● Caisse des D�p�ts ● Capgemini ● Ciena ● Cisco ● Cable & Wireless Communications ● Deutsche Telekom ● Ericsson ● Eutelsat ● France T�l�visions ● Google ● IBM ● Ircem ● Iris Capital ● Maroc T�l�com ● Microsoft ● Motorola Mobility ● NTT-DoCoMo ● Orange ● PWC ● Qualcomm ● Samsung ● Sagemcom ● Serena Capital ● SES ● SFR ● Soci�t� G�n�rale ● Swisscom ● TDF ● Telef�nica ● Technicolor

N�573 - IDATE has a new Chairman -

2011-11-10

Montpellier, 9 November 2011 �, IDATE, one of Europe�s foremost think tanks covering the telecoms, internet and media industries, today announced the appointment of Fran�ois Barrault as its new chairman. Effective as of Wednesday, 9 November 2011, this appointment comes as the result of a decision by Francis Lorentz, who has been the Institute�s chairman since 2000, not to seek another term.

Operating as an association, IDATE brings together enterprises, local authorities and qualified experts, in addition to having a staff of some 50 specialists at its headquarters in Montpellier, France.
Fran�ois Barrault was elected Chairman of IDATE�s Board of Directors after having been nominated by the Management Board, which is composed of Bernard Brabet, Marc Fossier, Gabrielle Gauthey, Jean-Herv� Lorenzi, Francis Lorentz and Agn�s Touraine.
Fran�ois Barrault is currently the Chairman and founder of FDB Partners SPRL, an investment and advisory firm in media and telecom technologies, renewable energy and publishing. Fran�ois began his career at IBM as a researcher in robotics and artificial intelligence before going on to create a series of companies. He was a top executive with the firms Ascend Communications, Computervision, Stratus and Astria before occupying senior positions at Lucent Technologies, where he was a corporate officer and International President of their Mobile Division and CEO of Lucent EMEA. Fran�ois then joined BT as President of BT International and later CEO of BT Global Services, and served on the BT Group Board of Directors until the end of 2008. Fran�ois holds a post-graduate degree in Robotics and Artificial Intelligence, and a degree from the Ecole Centrale of Nantes.
�Over the course of these many years of collaboration with Yves Gassot and IDATE�s teams, I have been able to take the full measure of the tremendous quality of their work, the independence of their analysis and their ongoing dedication to matters of public interest,� says outgoing Chairman, Francis Lorentz. �This singular institution has an important role to play in enabling in-depth discussions and proposing courses of action in response to the challenges that today�s digital Europe is grappling with. This new stage in the Institute�s development, for which we have been laying the groundwork together for more than a year, now, is the embodiment of this ambition. I only regret that my commitments to my chief position (LD&A) prevent me from fully taking part. But, thanks to his professional experience, his understanding of the issues and challenges of the technology sectors, the international scope of his career, his independence and his human qualities, I believe that Fran�ois Barrault will be better equipped to steer the new Digiworld Institute successfully through this transition.�
�The past ten years, which have been particularly rich in innovation and disruptions caused by the growing ubiquity of the internet, have allowed IDATE and its team, led by Yves Gassot, to emerge as a centre for analysis, debate and experience-sharing that is recognised internationally for its expertise and its independence,� says Fran�ois Barrault. �I am especially glad to be taking over from Francis Lorentz at a time when the Institute is preparing to enter into a new stage in its development. Through a major overhaul of its programmes and the way it operates, the new �Digiworld Institute� aims to become a European benchmark in its field. I would like to thank Francis for his excellent work, and for all of the passion and energy that he has dedicated to IDATE since the year 2000.�
An independent market observatory, IDATE publishes in-depth reports on the development of digital technologies and services, their markets and business models, in addition to hosting collaborative research programmes, debates and conferences devoted to exploring the present and future of the digital world. Its annual DigiWorld Summit attracts more than 1,200 of the top internet, telecoms and media industry leaders and experts to Montpellier every November to discuss issues introduced by IDATE experts and talks from the sectors� leading decision-makers.

Francois Barrault � biography

Fran�ois Barrault has had unique and diversified entrepreneurial and corporate experiences in the technology sector.
He is chairman and founder of FDB Partners SPRL, an investment and advisory firm in TMT, renewable energy and publishing.
Francois started his career as a researcher in Robotics, Artificial Intelligence with IBM Corporation; then founded � and sold � several businesses. He then moved to senior positions in large global companies, in particular Lucent Technologies where he was President and CEO Lucent EMEA and then as corporate officer and International President of their Mobile Division ran all Lucent�s 38 acquisitions in the Internet sector. He retired at the end of 2008 from the position of CEO of BT Global Services and as a BT Group PLC board member. In BT Global Services he created a world leader in Networked IT services comprising 37,000 employees and operating in 176 countries, in four years acquiring 32 companies around the world. At the same time, he led BT Innovate, the advanced R&D and innovation team of BT Group and in this role chaired and sponsored numerous initiatives with the most prestigious universities in the world. Fran�ois has been very active at the WEF (Davos and regional forums) and created and then chaired the BT Global advisory board (60 world-class leaders from around the globe).
Fran�ois is also active in lecturing worldwide, is a member of various boards of public and private companies, advisory boards, private investment funds and foundations around the world.

N�572 - Online Video -

2011-11-08

IDATE has released recently its report "Online Video: Uses, Markets, delivery technologies/CDN� which spotlights both the online consumer and video delivery market with a segmentation of key services and key metrics on usage. It analyzes revenue models (ad, pay, freemium, bundling) and proposes key player and event case studies. It assesses the key technology for online video delivery (including CDN) and presents the main solutions regarding platforms, protocols and delivery solutions. It identifies the key drivers and provides forecasts.

�We expect the worldwide online video market to grow at an average rate of 35% per year between 2010 and 2015 to reach 21.7 billion EUR in 2015, some 6% of the total video market, whereas CDN should reach 4.7 billion EUR with a CAGR of 28%�, says Vincent Bonneau, IDATE�s Internet lead analyst. �Video CDN will even develop faster with 2.4 billion EUR at 33%, close to online video rates.�

The consumer online video market
IDATE estimates the world consumer online video market at 4.7 billion EUR in 2010. We estimate that 48% of the world online market derives from advertising revenues and 52% from pay-revenues, due to the peculiar structure of the USA market with strong sell-through on-demand revenues coming from Apple and Netflix, and to a lesser extent paid TV channels (especially from sport leagues). In most of other territories, the bulk of revenues originate from advertising.

Key online video services
The consumer online video services market can be broken down into five main segments, which differ in terms of content length, content quality (premium and therefore blockbuster/popular shows versus long tail), place in the media chronology and business models (free versus paid versus bundles):
�    Free short clips services
�    Streaming platforms (mostly illegal content coming from Megavideo)
�    Catch-up TV services (rerun but fresh content, only available for free for a short period of time)
�    Premium VOD offers (paid services on pay per view basis or subscription basis)
�    Live streaming services (all live video, especially sports, including also illegal contents).
The lines are less and less clear between the different providers of those services, as they tend to offer all services. The largest remaining differentiation is therefore the business model and to a lesser extent the quality of the content.

Online video is becoming mainstream
In developed countries, more than 80% of Internet users are watching audiovisual content via the Web. Short clips, such as provided by YouTube or DailyMotion, are the favourite online videos, with 78% of broadband Internet users watching them. Other popular short clip video services come from specialists (AlloCin�) or more recently from Facebook, as social networking is spreading on all Web services. Catch-up TV (coming from Hulu and from all popular TV channels such the BBC iPlayer) and streaming platforms such as Megavideo, and live streaming are also fairly used. TV series consumption is indeed growing fast thanks to streaming platforms (very high intensity per user) and catch-up TV services. The availability of streaming video services negatively impacts the use of P2P services. Other video services are still niche, as live is only emerging around dedicated platforms (Justin.tv) or for sport events around traditional broadcasters online video services, but often with a low quality. Premium VOD is developing, but is only being used online by a few users, even for Apple�s iTunes (most of VOD consumption being on managed services), except for the skyrocketing Netflix, whose future remains unclear. Adoption of online video remains higher among young people, but Pay-VOD is heavily used by middle-aged people. Unlike TV, Online video is often watched alone, except for pay-premium VOD which is mainly family entertainment. All the same, the bulk of the total time spent watching video is spent on TV. Consumers accept the trade-off between free content/lower quality and paid content/higher quality, which is currently reflected by the lower adoption of paid services (except for services relying on bundles as has been the case with Netflix or, more recently, HBO). A lot of users are still flocking to free content (legal or illegal), raising therefore questions around the business models. Multi-tasking is also an issue to be addressed in order to monetise online audience: people watching online videos surf on the Web or on Facebook at the same time, chat, or even watch TV.

Revenue models of consumer online video services
Online video benefits from traditional Web advertising formats, namely display, sponsoring and search marketing. Inserting video or non-video advertising inside the video programmes increases its impact and encourages the circulation of programmes. Pre-roll video ads are the most commonly used formats, but overlays, tickers and companion ads are also widely used. A key trend is to let the user personalise the ads he prefers to be offered. Implementing cost-per-click tariffs rather than cost-per-thousand is key for the adoption of online video advertising by advertisers.
Pay-revenue models are moving from pay-per-view patterns to flat-fee subscriptions, such as used by subscription video on demand services.
Services tend to combine the free and pay models into freemium services, where a subscription gives access to more recent content, higher quality and portability between terminals.
However, a significant share of online video consumption, bundled with other services, will not generate specific revenues: streaming services marketing their store and share offers (Megavideo); online free add-on versions of pay-TV channels (ESPN3, HBO Go); premium programming bundled with telcos triple-play services (Orange).

Project Manager
Vincent Bonneau

Please also visit our blog with the latest news about our research programme or read the full press release which you can download here.

N�571 - Future TV : 2020 -

2011-10-10

IDATE has released recently its report on the future of television, "Future TV: 2020 � Taking it to the Web" which confirms that, although the TV market (and video in its broadest sense) still enjoys sizeable growth margins, traditional networks will be facing increasingly stiff competition from new forms of distribution (OTT and Mobile).

�The migration to the Web calls existing revenue-sharing schemes into question, with channel operation being the weakest link in the chain and facing a dual threat: seeing new entrants win control of selling ad space, and seeing copyright owners and distributors form a direct alliance to market paid services,� says IDATE�s deputy CEO, Gilles Fontaine. �It is only by retaining their core functions on the Web that TV networks, in a not terribly dynamic market, will be able to enjoy even slight growth. To achieve this, it is crucial that they maintain tight control over programming rights.�

IDATE�s view of the video market in 2020
Parsing three extreme scenarios, IDATE has modelled a core, figure-backed scenario.
In terms of total market value, the three scenarios and our core scenario converge. We consider that advertising and pay-TV market revenue can only vary to a limited degree. As a result, we estimate that the global video market will grow at an average annual rate of 4% between 2010 and 2020 (2% in France, the UK and the United States), but live services will grow by 2%, compared to 20% for advanced video services.

The four scenarios vary with respect to the weight that new services have in the video market as a whole: according to IDATE, new video services combined (fixed and mobile) will account for 10% of the global video market in 2015 and 20% in 2020.

The scenarios also vary in terms of the weight that advertising and paid services have in the new services market. We estimate that the global video market will grow at a slightly higher rate (4.5%) than the pay-TV market (3.7%) between now and 2020. The traditional pay-TV market is expected to be the main source of market growth from 2010 to 2015, but OTT advertising will take over in the following years, i.e. from 2016 to 2020.

According to IDATE, OTT will account for 51% of the new video services market in 2020, mobile for 27% and managed networks for 22%.

Changes in how ad revenue is shared
We have analyzed the impact that changes in the value chain will have on the distribution of advertising revenue, based on three possible developments:
�    Television networks maintain their position in the supply of channels and of new services.
�    Copyright owners and distributors gain control of the supply of new video services.
�    Distributors earn a fraction of live TV advertising revenue.
We estimate that TV networks will be earning 30% of televised advertising revenue in 2020. They will increase this share slightly if they secure the function of supplier of new services. Under the worst-case scenario, however, their share would drop to 25% in 2020 and decrease in terms of absolute value.

Gilles FONTAINE
Project Manager & Deputy CEO

Please also visit our blog with the latest news about our research programme or read the full press release which you can download here.

N�570 - ICTs and health -

2011-10-07

ICTs and health

Edited
by Robert PICARD, Elettra RONCHI & Graham VICKERY
No. 83, 3rd Quarter 2011

Montpellier, October 07, 2011 � IDATE has just published its latest COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES dossier. COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES is an international journal that publishes every quarter peer-reviewed papers focusing on the industry's key issues, and offering a forum for the finest socio-economic analysis of the telecoms, Internet and media sectors.

The papers presented in this issue shadow the diversity of approaches related to ICT implementation within the health system. They point out also the specificity of the sector. The particular position of health within our economies, the weight of public financing, the role of public authorities in the decision process to launch a new product and change health delivery systems, the vital issue of improved outcomes for users of health services, and the specific relationship between them and healthcare professionals: all of these issues help to explain why the health sector is often �late� in terms of ICT penetration. Development of the ICT health market and applications are very much related to the value perceived by each of the numerous stakeholders. The two interviews illustrate these challenges from an international and institutional perspective, with Fredrik LINDEN, Project Coordinator, Smart Open Services for European Patients, epSOS, and from a regional and operational perspective with Herv� BARGE, Chief Information Officer of the French regional health agency.

Exclusive:

The interview with Fredrik LIND�N,
Project Coordinator, Smart Open Services for European Patients, epSOS
Conducted by Elettra RONCHI (OECD)

Building Smart Open Services Across Borders

C&S: In 2011 more than 30,000 hospital caregivers in 10 European countries will participate in an exchange of electronic patients' records (EPRs) in the world's largest, first-ever cross-border connection of e-health systems. Brussels refers to this as a 'large-scale e-health implementation'. What led to this landmark achievement? Which countries are involved?
Fredrik LIND�N: EpSOS - which stands for Smart Open Services for European Patients - has been conceived from the very beginning as a large scale, cross-border, pilot project. Launched in 2008 with the contribution of the European Commission and 12 EU Member states (MS), since January 2011 epSOS includes a total of 23 MS involving more than 700 people. When fully operational, the epSOS pilot is expected to engage more than 30,000 health care professionals exchanging patient summaries between 3,400 points of care.
This level of involvement is a sign of the increasing recognition of the critical importance of information technologies (IT) in the health sector and demonstrates that implementation and cross-border interoperability of national programs across Europe are reaching a level of maturity that is very promising for the future of e-health.

C&S: What are the aims of this pilot project?
F. L.: Projects of this scale have multiple purposes. Although epSOS is mainly about cross-border health information exchange, the expectation is that it will achieve much more than this.
The main goal of epSOS is to increase patient safety by enabling the electronic exchange of basic patient medical information across Europe's borders. Consider this scenario: Mr Smith, who is retired and suffered a stroke in 2006 will be able to travel from France to Denmark knowing that a summary of his medical record will follow him and be accessible to doctors in case of an emergency. During a stroke, every minute counts and access to a medical record and neurological care soon after onset of initial symptoms makes the difference between life and death. Another scenario could be that Mr Smith runs out of a vital medicine that is already prescribed in his home country, while on vacation in Denmark. In this latter case, the pharmacist should be able to electronically access the prescription from the same eHealth interface she/he uses for prescriptions ordered in Denmark.
Mr Smith is a fictitious character, but these situations are real and increasingly common. Their examples show how greater use of information technologies can improve safety, the quality of care and also reduce costs by reducing the need to duplicate tests.
Another of epSOS�s aims is to support the implementation of the 2011 "EC patients' rights directive in cross border health care" (COM 2008/414 final), which entitles European patients to seek health care in another EU country while being reimbursed by their national social security system.
Finally, the epSOS project is also viewed as a starting point and a stimulus for further co-operation on eHealth development in Europe, which goes well beyond these first two cross-border pilot services.
Achieving the epSOS vision is, however, a long and challenging journey. The exchange of data which lies at the heart of the epSOS pilot requires the development of a robust architecture and a normative framework which is agreed between all parties. This framework must ensure that health-care professionals can rely upon the authenticity of the clinical data on which they will base decisions; that suitable systems of security exist to ensure that data cannot be accessed by unauthorized parties; and that patient rights are duly respected by all parties.

C&S: What IT services has epSOS chosen to address and why? How will European citizens benefit? Is private sector involved?
F. L.: There are many difficult issues to be solved to fulfil the vision of e-health as an enabler of continuity of care both within countries and across borders. EpSOS has chosen to start with basic patient summaries and e-prescriptions. These two areas represent essential building blocks of a country's electronic health information systems and, as such, are priority areas in the strategic plans of many European countries. The intention with epSOS is to gather data and learn from these pilot operations also to assist countries in accelerating their own national deployment of these services.
The potential of epSOS can however, only be fully exploited if tools and solutions are interoperable.
While it is possible to summarise why and how eHealth interoperability should be promoted and who the actors are, it is more difficult to suggest a common pace of change. Implementing interoperability requires a complex set of framework conditions, organisational structures and procedures that need to be agreed by all relevant stakeholders. For this purpose, epSOS has been working closely with the 'Integrating the Healthcare Enterprise' (IHE) initiative in promoting the coordinated use of standards such as DICOM and HL7. Thirty-five companies are contributing to the project and are providing a great deal of support. Many of these companies are also associated with the IHE.

C&S: How long did it take to sort out the legal and technical implications for transferring patient data? What were the main issues? How were they overcome?
F. L.: It took the epSOS working groups a full year to arrive at a framework agreement for transferring patient data. Addressing privacy issues has been one of the defining issues for epSOS. There are some fundamental differences across EU countries on how specific health information is handled and particularly on the requirements for informed consent.
But the objective of the epSOS project is not to propose new frameworks or amendments to existing legislation; the role of the project is rather to work with what is available, especially in areas where transposition of the EU directives has taken place. There are, nonetheless, aspects of fundamental legislation issues that are not regulated at EU level and that have to be dealt with on a case by case basis.
For example, professional accreditation with respect to access to health records varies among Member States. In some countries nurses are not allowed to access patient data, while in others, nurses provide supervised care traditionally provided by doctors.
The challenge is therefore, to create conditions that will allow for health data exchange across as many of the epSOS MS as possible, whilst respecting local frameworks and, at the same time, establish a sense of trust in the system for all parties (authorities, providers and patients). We call this "building trust by design". Trust will therefore be pursued by means of introducing safeguards at the level of the processes and for auditing compliance.
In practical terms this has meant the need to include additional contractual requirements for the pilot operation.
An issue of great importance and which is directly linked to increasing trust is making sure that all actors are appropriately involved in this work from the beginning.
In particular, epSOS patients must be aware of the level of data protection assured in epSOS and must give informed consent for data access in that context. The pilot is conducted on the basis of an opt-in consent framework. This means that no epSOS data will be collected either directly or indirectly from healthcare providers without the freely given, specific and informed consent of the patient, according to the national law of the country where treatment is provided.

C&S: How will success be measured? How sustainable is the project? How will the cross-border information exchange platform be governed and financed over the long term?
F. L.: A number of different tools such as questionnaires, interviews or automatic data collection will be used to evaluate the epSOS project. This will include an assessment of the impacts of the new services proposed by the project (for example, organisational and financial impacts and patient safety). Patients will be made aware of the importance of evaluation and will be asked to return questionnaires before discharge from the hospital, or when leaving a pharmacy. Health professionals who use the epSOS service will also be made aware of the importance of the questionnaires and will be invited to return one questionnaire after each visit and participate in the interviews.
While the issue of reimbursement and the long-term operation of the services is out of scope for epSOS, the project shall produce and deliver, through a number of its deliverables, practical guidance on how to make the transition from the pilots to normal operation and will contribute to this through its recommendations at the end of the project. We have, however, not yet looked at the various business models to ensure sustainability. These will be discussed intensely, I am sure, in 2013 and 2014.

Contact
COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES
Sophie NIGON
Managing Editor
s.nigon@idate.org

N�569 - Superfast broadband -

2011-09-29

IDATE announces the publication of its �Superfast Broadband Survey: Understanding consumers� switching patterns� market report. Drawing on the results of an exclusive international survey, and an analysis of multimedia equipment and internet usage levels, this report allows readers to deepen their understanding of the current mechanisms, drivers and obstacles that are shaping the rate at which residential users are switching to superfast broadband.

�We decided to conduct this survey,� explains project leader, Valerie Chaillou, �because we wanted to obtain a detailed analysis of the drivers and obstacles that explain the rate at which consumers are switching over to new superfast broadband solutions, using four markets with varying degrees of maturity as our examples, namely France, Sweden, the United States and Japan.�
�    France lags behind in terms of both coverage and penetration, which stood at 21% and 8%, respectively, at the end of 2010.
�    Roughly 40% penetration in Japan, Sweden and the United States, and corresponding coverage of between 30% and 90% of the population.
�    The fact that rollouts began earlier in these three countries explains to some degree why France lags

The following trends can be extracted from the survey�s results:
�    The most significant variables are tied more to location (degree of urbanisation, type of housing) than to the features of the household (size, age, presence of children, etc.). Here, socio-economic criteria appear to have less of an impact on the likelihood of having a superfast broadband connection than they did in the early days of the Web.
�    Excess amount of equipment more in the realm of computers than TV/video among superfast BB households, except in the United States where there tends to be an excess of all types of multimedia equipment.
�    Notable variances in consumption levels for the most innovative applications in superfast BB households (see graph below).
�    Switchover driven by a desire for more bandwidth. Reasons cited for switching are tied either to uses (especially TV/video), or driven by an event or opportunity (arrival of superfast broadband, moving house, special offers, etc.).
�    Superfast broadband households are no more proactive than regular broadband households. But it is only in the United States, and in Sweden to a lesser degree, that marketing currently plays significant role in persuading users to switch � with 30% and 22% of superfast broadband households having signed up as a result of a marketing campaign.
�    Half of all subscribers change providers when switching to a superfast solution, and this regardless of how mature the market is.
�    The main obstacles to switching are clearly expected prices and users� satisfaction with their existing connection. Both of which mean that providers need to step up their marketing efforts.
�    But 60% of the non-superfast broadband households polled say that switching to this new form of access is inevitable over the long term.

Superfast broadband survey methodology

Geographical scope: France, Sweden, Japan, USA

Survey target: Internet households

Protocol:
�    Online survey based on a proprietary Harris Interactive panel representative of the online population
�    Sample of superfast broadband households (minimum 100 superfast broadband households/country)
�    Size of the sample: 400 to 500 interviews conducted in each country, for a total 1,760 interviews.
�    Survey conducted in: May/June 2011

Results processing: Adjustments taking into consideration the oversampling of superfast broadband households
Straight tab and multivariate breakdown (superfast broadband households vs. other households)

Val�rie Chaillou
Senior Consultant, IDATE

Please also visit our blog with the latest news about our research programme or read the full press release which you can download here.

N�568 - Twenty six percent increase in the number of homes passed for FTTH/B in Europe -

2011-09-29

Europe (EU-35) reported a solid 26% increase in the number of FTTH/B homes passed in the first half of 2011. Growth has been slower when it comes to actual FTTH/B subscribers (14%) which proves that expanding coverage is still the top priority for players. There were nearly 4.6 million FTTH/B subscribers in the EU-35 by mid-year, and more than 25 million homes passed.
Among CIS countries, because of its specific demographic features, Russia leads the way in terms of FTTH/B subscribers and homes passed � and the potential of the Russian market is huge, with 5.1 million FTTH/B subscribers and 11.7 million homes passed as of June 2011. Ukraine is also home to nearly half a million FTTH/B subscribers, and we expect to see new players becoming involved in FTTH/B deployments in the near future.

As in previous years, IDATE has been commissioned by the FTTH Council Europe to provide an overview of the status of FTTH/B rollouts across Europe at the end of June 2011. To date, IDATE has identified around 260 FTTH/B projects in the EU-35.

The first type of player to become involved was alternative carriers which singlehandedly account for 55% of FTTH/B homes passed in Europe. Alternative carriers have performed rollouts in France, Italy, Germany, Sweden and in Eastern Europe (Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, and Bulgaria).

We include cable companies in this category as they are often involved in large-scale FTTB network rollouts � with examples that include Numericable in France and ER Telecom in Russia. Cablecos have the advantage of not having to negotiate building-by-building to access homes since the coaxial outlet is already installed plus, in a great many instances, the civil engineering to pull the fibre to the foot of the building has already been performed.

Another category of stakeholder is local authorities and regional power companies (which are often owned by public authorities). While this category represents only 12% of homes passed for fibre at the end of June 2011, it accounts for the largest number of FTTH/B projects, most of which are small scale ones � covering only a town. Their involvement will probably increase in other countries such as France and the UK through national programs.

These players can encounter difficulties when taking on the business of operator which usually has no correlation with their core responsibilities. To help alleviate these difficulties, we are seeing some of these small-scale rollouts being grouped together to form a network � with examples that include Stedenlink in the Netherlands, Netixopen in Finland and, in the form of an ISP, Waoo in Denmark. This allows the parties involved not only to pool their expertise but also to create a brand and to build a large customer base (to attract TV broadcasters, for instance).

The other category of player worth mentioning is incumbent carriers which account for 33% of FTTH/B homes passed in Europe. Virtually all of Europe�s incumbent carriers are either now involved in FTTH/B rollouts, are gearing up to it or are in the planning stages. Even those who originally opted for an FTTN+VDSL solution, such as KPN, Swisscom and now BT and Deutsche Telecom, are turning their attention to FTTH � in many cases as a result of the growing competitive pressure created by cable companies� and local authorities� fibre initiatives.

Excluding Russia, which leads the FTTH/B market in terms of subscribers and homes/buildings passed thanks to its demographic make-up (5.1 million FTTH/B subscribers alone), Sweden is still the leading market with 625,000 FTTH/B subscribers at end of June 2011. This leadership could be challenged in the near future by countries such as France, which is already home to nearly 560,000 FTTH/B subscribers. Other countries are also reporting strong growth and are now positioned in the top 10 in terms of number of homes/buildings passed. This is true of Ukraine, Romania and Portugal which ranked 3rd, 5th and 6th at end of June 2011.

Scandinavian countries, and notably Sweden and Norway, still lead the way in Europe in terms of penetration rate � with 39% and 62%, respectively. But the situation across Europe as a whole is still quite disparate as countries like Italy or France are still reporting low penetration rates (13.5% and 10%, respectively).

Regarding the technology deployed, Ethernet is still players� first choice across the EU-39, and represented 71% of all FTTH/B rollouts at end of June 2011.

As concerns network architecture, FTTB still accounted for 61% of rollouts at the end of June 2011. Players are favouring an FTTB configuration as it allows them to avoid the issues that come with installing fibre on private property, and especially MDUs � i.e. having to negotiate with each property owner.

Roland Montagne
Director, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE
r.montagne@idate.org

N�567 - Digital Home - Connectable devices -

2011-09-12

IDATE will soon be publishing the third edition of its �Digital home and connectable devices� market report which provides readers with a detailed inventory of the internet-ready device market: TVs, set-top boxes, digital media boxes, computers, portable media players, etc. It also includes market figures up to 2015, along with a series of case studies that provide the foundation for a strategic analysis of the issues facing industry players, and innovative applications that will help consolidate the digital home.

�The technical building blocks for the digital home are available, but several views on how it should be organised are vying for the upper hand, depending on the market players and their core business: proprietary silos, technical interoperability of the devices, content and in-the-cloud services,� says Laurent Michaud, the report�s Project manager and head of IDATE�s Consumer Electronics & Digital Entertainment Practice. �By providing access to content that is stored or distributed in the cloud, the connected TV, ISPs� new-generation set-top boxes and now tablets are the new driving forces in the digital home�s development.�

The device is king � the inexorable rise of connectable devices

Sales of digital home devices (factored into the IDATE report) will increase between 2011 and 2015, with more than 2 billion units expected to be sold in 2015.
�    The emergence of digital home solutions has been spurred by game consoles on the one hand and, on the other, by devices dedicated to managing content and to providing access to the Web.
�    The integration of solutions still falls short on many fronts, especially in terms of the quality of the interfaces, continuity of service and payment systems.
�    In 2010, one out of every two devices sold was internet-ready, and there were 1.3 billion connectable devices in use by the end of the year.
�    Even before the connected television has become ubiquitous, TV accounts for more than 20% of connectable devices sold, in particular thanks to the popularity of game consoles. By 2015, most televisions will access the Web directly through built-in connectivity.
�    In 2015, internet-ready device sales will reach 1.6 billion units worldwide, accounting for 78% of all devices sold.
�    Although device sales are expected to increase by 2.2 times between 2011 and 2015, sales revenue will increase by a factor of only 1.7, to reach over 400 billion EUR in 2015.
�    The computer�s relative weight in the fleet of connectable devices deployed will decrease as mobile phones and televisions increase their share.

Laurent MICHAUD
Head of the Consumer Electronics & Digital Entertainment Practice

Please also visit our blog with the latest news about our research programme or read the full press release which you can download here.

N�566 - LTE Devices -

2011-09-01

IDATE has just released its new market report �LTE Devices�. This report provides an overview of the LTE devices market with availability roadmaps for LTE devices for each region. It also includes a device typology (smartphone, tablet, M2M, dongle, personal hotspot�) and case studies of LTE chipset & devices manufacturers, along with an analysis of the players� positioning in the LTE battleground. It also proposes detailed forecasts for LTE devices sales revenue & unit shipments.

�The LTE ecosystem is growing from strength to strength with more than 200 operators already having announced their commitment to LTE technology�, says Fr�d�ric Pujol, the head of Mobile & Spectrum practice at IDATE. �By the end of June 2011, 19 operators had launched LTE service and at least 16 more are expected during the second half of the year.�

Positioning and strategies of main LTE device players

The advent of a new Radio Access Network technology is often a game-changer in the mobile industry. It brings with it a raft of new challenges but, above all, new opportunities for players in the industry, especially chipset manufacturers, mobile device manufacturers and Mobile Network operators who may find a way to add further differentiation in the expanding arena of mobile competition.

   � For chipset manufacturers, it will be seen that, in order to be able to succeed, the increased capabilities of mobile devices increasingly require competencies in various areas not limited to baseband. In our judgement, this will see Qualcomm, NVIDIA and ST-Ericsson establishing themselves as Tier 1 players in this market

   � For mobile device manufacturers, the challenges will be to have the best possible integration of 4G into existing devices, with, of course, a series of challenges: technical, cost, IPR (Intellectual Property Rights) and Time To Market. Each of the device manufacturers has so far adopted different strategies. Some, such as Apple, have adopted a cautious approach, waiting for the technology to mature for mass market adoption. On the other hand, device vendors such as HTC or Samsung and LG have entered the market very early in an attempt to differentiate themselves and increase market share. In the long term, however, we do not see early LTE adoption into devices as an entry barrier for newcomers.

   � For Mobile Network Operators, mobile devices are also key in their promotion of their new ultra fast network. Several important choices are to be made regarding which device to put on offer, at what level of subsidisation, with which mobile OS (operating system) and with what support for legacy services such as SMS and voice. The issue here is that, on the one hand, they have to make available a sufficient range of devices to appeal to potential subscribers whilst, on the other hand, represent a sufficiently broad market for device manufacturers to dare invest in new products for their network. So far, Verizon has been capturing most of the evolved LTE FDD devices announced so but this situation can be confidently expected to change soon, especially in Asia and later on in Europe.
   � With the TD-LTE ecosystem currently growing, we expect to see multimode handsets coming to the market in 2012: Mobile WiMAX and TD-LTE will be combined into handsets in order to provide a smooth transition path for Mobile WiMAX operators switching to TD-LTE. LTE devices combining FDD and TDD capabilities are also expected for operators deploying the two duplex modes on their networks and to facilitate international roaming.

   � Voice on LTE networks: initial LTE rollouts rely on Circuit Switched (CS) fallback for 3GPP operators meaning that voice will be carried over 3G networks. Verizon Wireless is planning to launch VoLTE by mid-2012 when its LTE coverage matches its 3G coverage. Adoption of VoLTE is expected to take many years as the transition to full-IP requires an IP Multimedia Sub-system (IMS) platform.

   � Preferred LTE bands around the world are likely to be the Digital Dividend (700 MHz in the USA, 800 MHz in Europe), 1800 MHz and 2600 MHz bands. However, regional differences are likely to remain. This has a significant impact on the growth of the LTE device ecosystem as the selection of frequency bands is likely to be driven by national constraints first. Regional harmonisation is likely to be the next step and international roaming is expected to be a headache.

Fr�d�ric Pujol
Project Manager, Head of Mobile & Spectrum practice

Please also visit our blog with the latest news about our research programme or read the full press release which you can download here

N�564 - Mobile Backhaul -

2011-08-17

IDATE has just released the new edition of Mobile Backhaul report. This report spotlights telcos� strategies regarding backhauling and fixed mobile convergence, how the transport network is evolving within the migration to all-IP and which choices telcos take to meet the increasing demand of bandwidth. The study analyses the evolution of backhaul networks, its investment control and the necessary implementation with the legacy infrastructure.

�Operators are increasingly considering the reuse of existing FTTH infrastructure as backhaul�, comments Tiana Ramahandry, Head of Project, Senior Consultant. �We believe mobile backhaul can be a major driver for fibre deployment. In the years to come, more important synergy between fixed and mobile access infrastructure is anticipated.�

One major key to backhaul upgrade is to mutualise FTTx and LTE backhaul investments
A backhaul upgrade is definitely a superb opportunity for operators to mutualise fixed and mobile investments. It offers them a clear chance to benefit from using existing fixed access loops to backhaul mobile traffic. The interest lies is the cost savings achieved by minimising network-related costs while improving the access layer capacity.

IDATE estimates that 25% of cell sites will be provisioned with fibre in EMEA, more than 40% in APAC and 50% in the USA in 2016.

Today, in their strategic plans, operators clearly take into account the interest of deploying and/or expanding their fixed broadband coverage alongside meeting mobile backhaul requirements. It is a long-term mutualisation strategy to reduce network-related costs while delivering high capacity. The reality is that LTE operators such as Verizon and TeliaSonera are using existing infrastructure whilst several other operators including Deutsche Telekom/T-Mobile are accelerating the connection of cell sites with fibre. In Qatar, the Vodafone subsidiary, which originally relied on microwave for backhaul, has started to deploy fibre. Clearly, mobile backhaul can be a major driver for fibre deployment for integrated operators.

Project Manager
Tiana RAMAHANDRY

Please also visit our blog with the latest news about our research programme or read the full press release which you can download here

N�563 - Femtocells -

2011-09-06

IDATE has recently released the 4th edition of the market report �Femtocells�. This report presents the latest trends in the femtocell market, which has recently regained momentum with the entrance of new ODM & chipset vendors as well as the emergence of new markets in the form of enterprise and public access. It examines also how mass-market deployment levels will be reached - 39.4 million deployed units by 2015 - and what obstacles must first be overcome.

�Following a slow start, the number of operators launching commercial femtocell services is increasingly quite rapidly in the Americas; Asia Pacific; and, Europe, Middle East and Africa,� comments Fr�d�ric Pujol, Head of Radio Technologies & Spectrum at IDATE. �Our team estimates that the worldwide femtocell access point market will reach a cumulative total of 39.4 million deployed units by 2015, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 71% between 2011 and 2015�

Vendor Evolution Accelerates�
The femtocell vendor environment is going through a process of rapid evolution.While the sector was dominated initially by a handful of small, specialist vendors - including ip.access, Ubiquisys and Airvana - this is no longer the case. Major telecom equipment vendors - including Alcatel-Lucent, Cisco, Hitachi, Huawei, NEC, Nokia-Siemens Networks (NSN), Samsung Electronics and ZTE - are now engaged in this market.

In addition, the recent emergence of a new category of mainly Taiwanese femtocell ODMs (Original Design Manufacturers) is shaking up the industry once again. This latter category of vendors is acting to drive down prices as it benefits from the rise of open standards, adding to the likelihood that mass-market volumes will be achieved. Likewise in the femtocell chipset sector, while Picochip - a pure-play small cells pioneer - has a clear and substantial lead, the number of viable and interested players has increased greatly. Broadcom (via its acquisition of femtocell specialist Percello), Texas Instruments and Qualcomm are all now devoting considerable resources to the sector.

Operator Interest Growing�
In the past year the number of live femtocell networks has doubled, in line with falling prices. There are now 30-plus deployments in more than 20 countries, including eight of the world�s largest operators by revenue. Femtocell access point (FAP) prices have now reached EUR 100, though care needs to be taken in terms of what is encompassed by that figure.
From the operator point of view, femtocells offer a cost-effective means of providing additional coverage and capacity while reducing capital and operating costs and improving retention. The concept of femtocell-enabled data offload is steadily gaining ground and it is likely that, once the market develops further, a range of new femtocell-based business models will emerge.
Increasingly, a far greater degree of emphasis is being placed on outdoor (metro and rural), enterprise and LTE femtocells under the �small cells� heading, thereby widening the addressable market. IDATE believes the femtocell sector will grow in importance during the coming years as the small cells concept develops into an over-arching strategic approach encompassing both coverage and capacity considerations.

Fr�d�ric PUJOL
Head of Mobile & Spectrum Practice

N�562 - Ultra-Broadband via Satellite -

2011-08-25

IDATE has just released the 4th edition of Ultrabroadband via Satellite report. This benchmark report explores the latest developments in national broadband plans in the United States, Asia and Europe, and analyses the positioning of satellite solutions compared to other alternative technologies like 3.5G and LTE. It also provides an assessment of the opportunities attached to fixed access deployments for residential users in Europe and North Africa, and delivers strategic and figure-backed responses to the question of satellite�s role in the emerging race to deploy ultra-fast broadband.

�Most of the major countries of Europe, North America and Asia have adopted national plans for the large-scale rollout of ultra-fast broadband networks�, says Maxime Baudry, the head of project and Co-Head Satellite Practice at IDATE. �In most instances, however, the technological choices are geared towards deploying FTTx, combined with LTE. Only a handful of countries, including France and Australia view satellite as a credible alternative for delivering superfast services of around 50 Mbps downlink by 2015.�

Satellite needs to gain a foothold in the UFB market soon

Satellite technology appears to be operating at two speeds today: with the latest developments that will enable certain providers to deliver downlink speeds of up to 10 Mbps, it is theoretically in a position to compete with DSL in certain areas where DSL subscribers are too far from the DSLAM to have high-speed access, with bandwidth that is often below 2 Mbps.
On the ultra-fast broadband front, however, satellite is lagging behind: while large-scale rollouts of FTTx and LTE are expected between 2011 and 2020, delivering download speeds of 30-70 Mbps, the most advanced satellite developments make it possible to supply �only� 50 Mbps, and even then not before 2015 at the earliest.
Because of this sluggish pace, which needs to be set against the thriving momentum in the terrestrial telecom market, ultra-fast broadband via satellite runs the risk of not becoming available until LTE is already widely deployed across the various markets (in particular thanks to infrastructure-sharing schemes) which means it will already have lost a sizeable number of potential subscribers.

Satellite broadband market expected to grow by 34% annually between now and 2015

Between 2010 and 2015, IDATE predicts that the number of broadband satellite customers in the Europe/North Africa region will increase by an annual rate of 34%, to reach a total 800,000 subscribers by 2015, compared to close to 123,000 at the end of 2010. The biggest progress will be seen in North Africa which, unlike Europe, does not have a robust fixed or mobile infrastructure. IDATE therefore estimates that the growth potential for a broadband satellite offer in this region is very strong, provided that price points are tailored to the economic realities in the different countries. The future success of a service in this region will also depend on how it positions itself with respect to competing wireless/cellular technologies which are enjoying a very healthy momentum today.

Maxime Baudry
Head of project, Co-head Satellite Practice

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N�561 - World Television Market -

2011-08-30

IDATE has just released the 21st edition of its biannual �World TV Markets� report. TV industry remains on a growth path -the worldwide market represents 301 billion Euro in 2010, a progression of 7.8% compared to 2009. This report analyses the overriding trends and changes taking place in the markets around the globe. It explores the driving forces behind the market�s growth and transformation, including an examination of the chief market trends, plus volume and value forecasts up to 2015 by geographical area and by country.

�Despite advertising spending�s sensitivity to economic activity, the effects of the 2008-2009 financial and economic crisis had less of an effect on the TV market than it did on worldwide GDP�, comments Florence Le Borgne, Director of IDATE�s TV & Digital Content Business Unit. �Subscription revenue, constantly rising, left the TV market in the green in 2009 with a growth rate of 0.5%. In 2010, the TV market growth rate rose to 7.8% or 0.7% less than worldwide GDP. However, for the period between 2007 and 2010, the rise in the worldwide TV market was 14% compared to only 12.7% for worldwide GDP.�

Subscription television market

In 2010, the worldwide pay TV market had 690.2 million subscriber households, an increase of 7.6% per year. With more than 490 million households, cable accounted for most of the subscriptions. Nevertheless, its importance in the Pay TV market is trending downward. Actually, cable still represented 79.5% of subscriptions in 2007 compared to 71.5% in 2010.
In contrast, satellite increased its relative share as this reception mode went from 17.8% of all subscriptions in 2007 to 22.3% in 2010, or 154.1 million subscribers. Over the same period, IP TV gained 24 million households and its relative share grew by 3 points to 5.1%.
Finally, terrestrial television grew from 3.6 million subscriber households in 2007 to 4.5 million in 2010, with relative share stagnating by about 0.6%. The growth in absolute value for paid terrestrial television can be explained by the expansion of DTT offers in Europe, such as in the United Kingdom, France and Italy and even in Scandinavia.

In 2010, 372.8 million households subscribing to a paid television offer worldwide are located in Asia/Pacific (or more than half of the TV households in the region). Europe was the second largest region accounting for the largest number of subscriber households (22.7%) followed by North America (16.7%), Latin America (5.3%) and the MEA region (1.6%).

During the period of 2007-2010. the MEA and Latin America recorded the strongest growth, with an increase of 50.0% and 53.1% of subscriber households respectively. In the more mature markets of Europe and North America, subscriber households grew at an average growth rate of 6.8% and 1.5% respectively over the same period. In Asia/Pacific, subscriber households increased by more than 33.6% between 2007 and 2010.

Project Manager
Florence LE BORGNE

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N�560 - World Internet Usage & Markets -

2011-09-19

IDATE has just published its �World Internet Usages & Markets� report. This report provides data and forecasts on Internet services markets � usage and revenue, by country and region � and is structured around the following key services: search engines, social networking, e-commerce, video and online advertising, both fixed and mobile. It covers Europe, North America and Asia, and analyses both the major trends in each segment and the market�s key players.

�Globally, the number of users of fixed Internet will continue to grow at a steady pace, reaching 2.3 billion in 2015�, comments Sophie Lubrano, Project Leader and IDATE�s Director of Studies. �Users of mobile Internet services will progress even more rapidly, however, and should reach 2.6 billion in 2015. This growth is fuelled by emerging markets, particularly China.�

Internet economy sustained by online advertising and e-commerce

As the Internet population grows, the amount of revenue generated online continues to rise at a steady pace � with all services reporting double-digit increases: search, social networking, video, e-commerce. Online advertising is a major source of income for the Web, and will climb to �88 billion by 2015, which represents more than 20% of total media advertising spending worldwide. But e-commerce too is core source of online revenue, forecast to generate more than �1,137 billion globally in 2015.

Sophie LUBRANO
Studies Supervisor

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N�559 - Communications & Strategies no. 82 -

2011-07-06

                           A Single EU Market for eCommunications?

               Edited by Denis LESCOP, Lorenzo Maria PUPILLO & Ulrich STUMPF
                                                  No. 82, 2nd Quarter 2011

Montpellier, July 11, 2011 � IDATE has just published its latest COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES dossier (No. 82, 2nd Quarter 2011). COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES is an international journal that publishes every quarter peer-reviewed papers focusing on the industry's key issues, and offering a forum for the finest socio-economic analysis of the telecoms, Internet and media sectors.

Summary : Competition policies which are fostered by Bruxelles and the EU member states regarding the telecom sector have always been associated with the prospect of a single market for telecommunications within the European Union: What is today�s situation? Have we made the right choices? What are the remaining barriers? What is the new perspective of this issue in the Internet era? Two interviews conclude this Dossier by providing some useful reflexions and interesting insights: one with Franco BERNAB�, Chairman of GSMA (GSM Association), Executive chairman of Telecom Italia, conducted by Lorenzo Maria PUPILLO and one with Chris FONTEIJN, Chairman of BEREC (Body of European Regulators for Electronic Communications), conducted by Ulrich STUMPF.

Exclusive: Interview with Franco BERNABE, Chairman of GSMA
and Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Telecom Italia, Conducted by Lorenzo Maria PUPILLO, Telecom Italia.

C&S: At the 2010 Mobile World Congress the Commissioner in charge of the Digital Agenda, Neelie Kroes, stated that "Europe is still a patchwork of national markets. We no longer have queues of lorries at frontiers but we are still very far from achieving a Digital Single Market". Where does GSMA stand on this issue?

Franco BERNAB�: We share Commissioner Kroes' view that we are still far away from a single digital European market. While we consider the achievement of a European single market necessary to enhance Europe's competitiveness, we realize that the single market is not on the way, communications service rates are still quite different among European countries and no real pan-European services exist. The lack of a single market can be mainly traced back to the current limited consistency in the application of European directives and soft law regulations. This is particularly true for the mobile sector. Although this market is recognized as the most advanced in terms of penetration and competition (European wide operators, interoperability of networks), its regulatory and policy framework shows some inconsistencies at the Member State level, concerning especially the spectrum management. Indeed, as some policy analysts have noticed, while the competence on access to spectrum is with the Member States more coordination at the European level would be needed. However, the changes brought by the implementation of the New Regulatory Framework will help in achieving more coordination at the European level and work towards the European single market. Indeed, starting on May 25th the European countries have to comply with the directives from the new Telecom Package which are now much more focused on achieving coordination at the European level than in the past. Furthermore, with the enforcement of the new Art. 7 procedures by the Commission and the BEREC, there will be a strong pressure on the harmonization of remedies across Europe. We are pleased that the New Regulatory Framework will ensure a higher degree of European harmonization. The Commission's goal to pursue the creation of a truly single market through a series of actions, such as the promotion of European-wide content rights, backed by the IPR strategy directive and, more generally, a harmonized implementation of the European framework, will become more reachable. We are looking for a stronger cooperation with the Commission to achieve this goal.

C&S: Regarding international roaming, the goal of the Commission to converge roaming charges to domestic prices by 2015 is clearly set to promote the single market. What do you think will be the best way to achieve this objective and what will be the impacts for the Industry?

F. B.: We should not forget that the European Telecom Market is, as of today, highly fragmented and the creation of 27 different national markets has sprung from the rules governing the sector at the beginning, with the granting of licenses and frequencies at national level. Those rules still apply today limiting the ability to overcome borders. The artificial elimination of roaming charges would not reflect the real market situation and would simply not allow operators to recover the costs they bear to offer the roaming service to their customers. Furthermore, we are now living a transitioning phase towards a new technology (LTE) that, while requiring important investments from operators, will bring huge benefits to the consumers The European Commission should not neglect this technological evolution and should avoid imposing solutions that would divert operator's efforts from the deployment of the new all-IP networks Indeed, any Commission's envisaged solution for regulating the roaming services in the next years could be a basis for discussion only if the structural solution does not allow an undue economic burden in terms of costs of implementation. These "regulatory costs" would clearly hamper innovation in the European mobile industry. We believe that a workable and viable solution aimed at introducing increased price competition in the provision of roaming services may be found. We are confident that the forthcoming debate in the European Parliament and Council will lead to the definition of an efficient and appropriate solution to the roaming issue, coherent with the technological market evolution. In addition, BEREC is called to draw the guidelines for the implementation of the structural solution envisaged by the Commission and will therefore play a relevant role in establishing a model that both addresses the issue of high roaming tariffs, especially for the data market, and the need of not raising excessive implementation costs. In this framework, GSMA is keen to continue to cooperate with the Commission, the European Parliament, and the European Council and with BEREC to identify the best solution.

C&S: The European Countries are freeing up the 800 MHz frequency band as a consequence of the digital TV switchover. Why is GSMA always stressing the importance of harmonization of spectrum usage? What are the key benefits for the mobile operators of such harmonization process, especially regarding the digital dividend band and what is the role of EU?

F. B.: Harmonization of spectrum usage brings benefits to consumers, manufacturers, network operators, service and content providers and is one of the major drivers of the success of the mobile industry. In particular, it has allowed the development of a fair and stable competition framework, with significant and long-term network investments as well as many positive implications for economies of scale, roaming and interoperability in mobile markets for all parties involved. GSMA believes that global spectrum planning, led by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), is of crucial importance and is the best way to secure the cooperation of national governments and industry in developing harmonized spectrum. Indeed, harmonization of spectrum usage reduces the likelihood of harmful interference between services. Lower interference leads to improvement in the quality of service to consumers. This is the primary objective of an efficient and effective spectrum management regime. Therefore, GSMA fosters a more harmonized spectrum usage in order to achieve economies of scale and avoid competition distortion. Authorizations and procedural conditions, including spectrum block sizes, timing of granting rights and duration of rights, could be defined in coordination between member states and the European Commission. Indeed, a lack of harmonization would probably lead to cross border interferences, market fragmentation and could seriously hamper innovation with strong negative impacts on consumers and firms Regarding the digital dividend band, the European Commission initiative aims at achieving more harmonization in spectrum usage within the next two-three years, by accelerating the opening up of the 800 MHz band to mobile broadband services. Considering that other main regions of the world have already opened their bands or are in the process of doing so, GSMA believes that it is critical for Europe's competitiveness to make available this band for mobile operators as soon as possible Indeed, the propagation characteristics of spectrum below 1 GHz are ideal for remote and rural areas and for indoor coverage, allowing mobile networks to play a fundamental role to bridge the digital divide. Therefore, GSMA welcomes the EU proposal because it aims at maximizing the benefits from more harmonization in this field. Furthermore, considering that mobile Internet traffic is expected to double almost every year between 2010 and 2015, the Commission has addressed both short and long term needs of mobile spectrum by establishing a deadline for opening up the current digital dividend band.

C&S: Since some users can hoard the capacity of the access network using IP bandwidth intensive services such as peer to peer or video streaming, what policies can help to preserve the possibility for consumers to access any application or service on mobile networks?

F. B.: Mobile Web users were considered, traditionally, high-value consumer or business subscribers. Currently, in the markets where lower-value feature-phones are available, the flat-rate service plans, the abundance of wireless applications and the increasing popularity of Smartphone's are resulting in increased data consumption by wireless users. In the radio access networks, bandwidth and spectrum resources are shared among an unpredictable and variable number of customers who are physically in the same cell at the same time. The average customer usage level of the broadband services cannot affect, even during peak hours, the shared network capacity. Nevertheless, there is a small number of customers that use their broadband service intensively, for example constantly sending or downloading very large files using 'peer to peer' and file sharing software. We estimate that just 10% of the customers generate almost 50% of the data traffic in the fixed networks and more than the 70% in the case of the mobile networks As a consequence, connectivity providers should, for the sake of efficiency, implement Network Management solutions able to avoid congestions especially in the case where a limited number of users or services are "gobbling up" the available bandwidth. While, technically speaking, network management techniques are the same for fixed and mobile networks, considering that mobile networks have in the radio access more rigid bandwidth constraints and require more efficient network resources used to provide high quality services, mobile operators will indeed need to develop new techniques to manage the strain on network capacity that will be imposed by increased mobile broadband adoption. As required by the New Universal Service Directive, it is important to guarantee that each service is provided ensuring the maximum transparency of information towards the user and complying with all the conditions indicated in the contracts (quality of services, network management policies used) Moreover, we deem that transparency over restrictions to services access and openness should apply to all the actors in the internet value chain. Actually, customer's quality of experience (QoE) depends to the same degree on these factors: the level of quality of service of all the networks, servers hosting the services that customers chose to access, terminal type and its operating system, browser and type of application used. On the contrary, in the current scenario, we foresee a set of concerns regarding the transparency in some segments of the value chain:
� Mobile operating systems which are "closed" systems;
� App Stores which are "closed" systems;
� Search engines which are becoming global monopolies. Therefore we believe that the industry should rethink and shift the need to guarantee net neutrality, toward a far more comprehensive and foresighted concept of Internet neutralities characterized by:
� "Devices neutrality": dominant devices producers shall not be allowed to take arbitrary decisions interfering with users' ability to install software and applications of their choice;
� "Applications store neutrality": dominant digital store retailers shall not be in the position of arbitrarily refusing applications by software developers willing to sell their digital merchandise;
� "Software neutrality": Internet software, such as internet browsers, shall support and run all internationally standardized video codifications.
� "Search neutrality": search engines shall guarantee a transparent and nondiscriminatory response to queries.

C&S: Would the development of Machine to Machine (M2M) applications make easier the development of a single eComms market in Europe?

F. B.: In the future, billions of devices will likely be connected wirelessly. By the end of the decade 50 billion devices will be connected via M2M. Whether it is automobiles, smart cities, smart grids or consumer electronics, the devices will communicate. M2M will bring significant changes in business models and be a key lever in meeting long term policy objectives from environmental management to aging societies. It is not by chance that an Organization like the OECD is organizing, in October, its next Technology Foresight Forum on these issues GSMA is focusing its activity in this area on a group of market verticals, such as automotive, mHealth, Smart Utilities and Consumer Electronics. The mobile infrastructure will serve as a Wide-area communications Platform, potentially blended with other types of networks, aiming at offering a wealth of services beyond pure connectivity. The diffusion of M2M is shifting the market from one where users have a relatively small number of communications devices to thousands and, in case of business users, potentially millions of devices. A communications company with millions of customers in a single country each owning more than one subscription, may be challenged to adapt to deal with single customers with millions of devices across countries or continents. However, the national focus of some regulatory settings or the commercial service areas of infrastructure providers and their service offerings, can contribute to act as a significant barrier to the development of M2M services across borders. For instance, using multiple networks or switching networks will demand more flexibility in using SIM-cards. For international roaming, the customer is dependent upon the roaming contracts of the provider of the SIM-card. These rates can be inexpensive for one country but can become expensive for another. Therefore, in this challenging environment, there will be pressure to reduce the national barriers to the development of a strong market for M2M applications starting from the European market. GSMA is already working in this direction, not only creating services, building business models encouraging the introduction of VAS, promoting partnerships to foster ecosystems -for instance, for electric vehicles - but also addressing standardizations issues, insuring interoperability and working towards ad hoc measures to guarantee a more flexible management of SIM-cards. We welcome cooperation with regulators and policy makers in the European and worldwide arena.

C&S: Beside your responsibility at the top of the GSMA, you are in charge of Telecom Italia: what may be the role of consolidation in the industry to progress toward the European Single market?

F. B.: Europe has a much more fragmented telecom market than other areas of the world. Therefore, we will probably see consolidation in the domestic market. However, the European single market's strength will rely more on a set of common rules, on common technical standards and on strong European equipment and device manufacturers than on cross border consolidation.

C&S: What in the last merger announced in the U.S.A (AT&T-Telekom) is inspiring you regarding the gap of structure between the two sides of the Atlantic?

F. B.: The U.S. market failed to deliver to U.S. consumers what Europe delivered through common standard (GSM), large scale equipment and device manufactures and licensing process which set out specific coverage obligations. The U.S. market is highly fragmented into small regional markets and there are a lot of regional operators which will likely be merged into bigger ones. As part of the deal AT&T will expand the roll out of its broadband mobile network (Long Term Evolution or LTE) to cover an additional 46.5 million people, helping to achieve the Federal Communications Commission goal of making broadband available more widely. There is clearly a trade off between market structure (number of carriers) and issues like coverage obligations, spectrum availability and price. If European lawmakers are unwilling to accept any national consolidation and wish to see extensive LTE roll out (both in metropolitan and rural areas) they shall be ready to make some concessions and make more spectrum available at a lower price while reducing the administrative burden that delays the installation of new base stations and hinders site co-sharing. In Italy, for example, due to an overly stringent limit of electromagnetic emission, site co-sharing is "de facto" unfeasible. When assessing the allegedly anti-competitive effect of the proposed deal there is an important issue to be taken into consideration: Communications Industry borders are blurring; inter industry competition embracing telecommunications operators, device manufacturers, mobile operating system makers and generally speaking the so called "Over the top" players, are a reality. Rejecting the AT&T/T-Mobile deal on the basis of a combined market share of some 39%, while most "Over the top" and Social network players enjoy market share by far exceeding 50%, would seem odd and would grant an unfair and unneeded additional competitive advantage to "Over the top" players.

                                                                            Contact
                                                  COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES
                                                                      Sophie NIGON
                                                                      Managing Editor
                                                                      s.nigon@idate.org

N�557 - Next Gen TV -

2011-06-29

IDATE has just published its report Next Gen TV, which analyzes the major innovations operating in the television industry. By comparing existing offerings and those in development, it elucidates the positioning strategies of traditional and upstart players and gives a glimpse of the key services of tomorrow.

�The trends that come under the microscope in this study are not just budding fads. They involve services or consumption patterns that, while still limited in scope for the time being, are gaining enough ground to soon be in a position to turn the traditional TV industry on its head,� comments Florence Le Borgne, Head of the "TV & Digital Content" Business Unit and leader of the project. �We have identified six major trends for 2011 and offer our vision of the evolution of the market for
each one and its prospects for success.�

The six key trends of the year marking the next generation of television

� Catch-up TV takes the world by storm
Without a doubt, catch-up TV is already revolutionizing the industry. It is widely available and meets a real need among consumers. As a result these services have been adopted by TV viewers en masse, even spanning the usual age divides.

� A potential renaissance of linear TV thanks to the tablet
Despite the head start that simulcast TV had on devices such as mobile phones, it never garnered even close to the same audience interest as catch-up TV has more recently. But we expect that the sweeping success of the tablet may spur new consumption of linear television on this larger screen.

� The success of smart STBs: putting the reins in the TV viewer�s hand
The development of advanced TV receivers, or �smart set-top boxes (STBs),� is definitely the second most important change in the industry, although it is limited to pay-TV households. Smart STBs are now at the center of the war between distributors of pay-TV offerings, for they serve as powerful tools for both building subscriber loyalty and boosting ARPU.

� Connected TV is proving to be big news, but it will take time before its effects are felt
Over-the-top (OTT) content and widgets on the TV are decidedly hot topics. The number of connected TVs on the shelves has exploded over the past 18 months, as have the other options for connecting a TV set to the Internet. Yet while there are plenty of examples and more services and applications are being added daily, these environments have yet to stabilize and are hard for the general public to use and understand. There may be a lot of buzz about these innovations, but the promised revolution is likely to hold out for several more years.

� A host of hurdles to overcome in rolling out 3D as a tool for enhancing the TV experience
Last but not least, 3D still seems to be running in beta mode, more of a marketing coup than an established service. The lack of content makes it difficult to put together a full channel offering. 3D will provide an enhanced experience when the many obstacles to its mass development have been overcome, but it is not expected to cause any major disruptions in the industry.

� A revolution, yes, but not till tomorrow
If the groundwork for a revolution in the television industry is currently being laid, the current players are only expected to really start feeling the first major effects in 2013 for the United States, 2014 for the most advanced European markets such as the United Kingdom and France and 2015 for other European markets.

Project Manager
Florence Le Borgne

Please also visit our blog with the latest news about our research programme or read the full press release which you can download here

N�556 - World Video Game Market -

2011-06-22

IDATE just published its latest World Video Games market report. The video game sectors continues to report promising results, in a recovering economical environment the game sector is becoming a global phenomenon, dematerialization has enabled the industry to penetrate new markets all around the globe. This report allows readers to track the changes at work and the outlook for the sector's key indicators up to 2014.

"The evolving video game market is still influenced by the life cycle of home consoles. As such, the commercialization of new generation machines from 2012 on will inject the sector with a level of growth allowing video game software to flirt with the idea of revenues of some EUR 60 billion by the end of 2015", comments Laurent MICHAUD, Project Leader and Head of Digital Home & Entertainment practice at IDATE. "However, the hold of the console market segment on the sector is gradually relaxing. In value terms, the video games for home consoles sector has now been caught up and overtaken by online gaming on the PC."

Seven key industry trends for 2011
IDATE suggests seven trends that could have an impact in 2011.

    1. Almost 40% of video game revenues are from digital distribution or generated by online practices (item selling, etc.).

    2. 2012-2015: towards a new generation of home consoles. With the Wii U due for release next year, Nintendo�s competitors will clearly have to rethink their schedules for commercially rolling out their next-gen consoles.

    3. By the end of 2011, smartphones and handheld consoles will finally converge, with commercialization of the Playstation Vita (PS Vita), available in two versions: with either a wireless or a 3G connection.

    4. Tablets: these are expected to take off in 2011-2012. The tablet is a new device that generates new usages within the digital home. It is an ideal interface for video gaming and the most popular type of application on this device.

    5. Facebook, the most recent game platform to date! The social network has pursued its casual gaming endeavors, broadening its base of gamers and converting general users to the world of video games. The gamble seems to have paid off, although only time will tell at what pace games will be exploited in this segment.

    6. The age of ubiquitous games: increasingly asynchronous access to the same game via several interoperable platforms. Gamers ultimately have just one centrally-managed account, whether sessions are played on Facebook, a smartphone, developers� websites or connected TV, etc.

    7. The emergence of gaming on connected TV: Onlive and Playcast Media are the most prominent companies to have invested in games on this platform. However, this nascent segment is also attracting a large number of Internet, TV and video game players, as well as ISPs, manufacturers of consumer electronics, smartphones and set-top-boxes, and telcos, etc.

Project Leader
Laurent MICHAUD

For more information, please visit our blog with the latest news about our research programme or read the full press release which you can download here.

N�555 - Mobile Video -

2011-06-22

IDATE has just released its �Mobile Video� report which takes a look at the mobile video market and its different business models, technologies and core devices. It also provides readers with an analysis of the market and forecasts for its development up to 2015, along with key data on the stakeholders, traffic and sales.

�The global mobile video market (cellular networks only) was worth an estimated 4.3 billion EUR in 2010, and forecast to reach 12.6 billion EUR in 2015, which translates into a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% for the period. The increase is even more impressive when looking at traffic volume (i.e. number of video minutes) which is due to rise at an average annual rate of more than 80% over the next five years. OTT (over-the-top, i.e. online) traffic accounts for the majority of video viewing time on mobile networks: 60% in 2010, and increasing to 70% in 2015,� says Project manager and Senior consultant Samuel Ropert.

Mobile video market in the biggest countries in 2010
The United States and Japan top the ranks of the world mobile video market on cellular networks. Over in Europe, Italy is the biggest market at close to 300 million EUR, followed by Germany. Italy owes its status to heavy take-up levels combined with an attractive selection of content, such as championship football, which stimulates usage and sales revenue. The price of a basic mobile video service is also much cheaper in Italy than in other countries, plus users have the ability to pay by the week and not just by the month as is usually the case.
Japan�s mobile video market is being undermined by the broadcast video market (which is not covered in this report) which is free for users, but which generates hundreds of millions of euros in ad revenue.

Project manager
Samuel ROPERT

Please also visit our blog with the latest news about our research programme or read the full press release which you can download here

N�554 - FTTx around the world -

2011-06-09

197 million FTTH/B subscribers expected around the world in 2015:
What to expect in terms of their consumption and demands?

At a time when FTTx is developing at a disparate pace around the globe � with an overall forecast of 227 million FTTH/B subscribers on the planet by 2015 � IDATE is announcing the upcoming publication of an international survey of residential ultra-fast broadband subscribers.

The ultra-fast broadband market continues to develop swiftly in most corners of the globe, in terms of both subscriber numbers and homes passed.

During the 5th annual ultra-fast broadband symposium in Paris (5�mes assises du tr�s haut debit), the Director of IDATE�s Telecom Business Unit, Roland Montagne, will be giving a talk about the status of FTTx rollouts around the globe, drawing on the findings of his unit�s FTTx Watch Service.

At the end of 2010, there were close to 61 million FTTH/B subscribers around the world, which marks a more than 53% increase over the previous year. This momentum is expected to result in a substantial rise in the number of homes passed for fibre over the next five years: at the end of 2015, there will be close to 493 million homes passed for FTTH/B worldwide, of which more than half will still be located in Asia, and 15% in Western Europe.

Exclusive survey: this July, IDATE will be publishing the first every international survey of residential broadband and ultra-fast broadband subscribers � whose aim is to better understand the mechanisms and reasons governing the switch from broadband to ultra-fast broadband (UFB).

Any analysis of the development of ultra-fast broadband around the world still relies to a large degree on examining operators� rollouts and the services they market. The latest data on homes passed and actual subscribers reveal huge disparities in national FTTH/B penetration rates, without offering any detailed explanation. The report being drafted by IDATE explores the topic of FTTH/B market development from the demand side of the equation, in other words by conducting a survey of the users themselves.

The goal of this original survey is to take stock of the situation from various angles, including equipment levels, connectivity, consumers� current and future requirements, etc. The ultimate purpose being to achieve a deeper understanding of the process of switching from broadband to ultra-fast broadband, and to deliver concrete explanations of what consumers view as incentives or disincentives to switch.

The survey carried out in May and June in four countries � the United States, Japan, France and Sweden � will be available in July.

Val�rie Chaillou
Manager of the FTTx Watch Service project
v.chaillou@idate.org

N�553 - Satellite TV -

2011-06-23

IDATE has just published its new report �Satellite TV�. This report looks at the latest developments and major trends in television markets, as much in terms of satellite�s prominence as a broadcasting mode in national TV markets, as the strategies employed by the broadcast networks and pay-TV services, especially with respect to their 3D offers, and provides an analysis of how this affects the satellite industry.

�Satellite is the best-placed network for broadcasting the widest selection of HD and 3D content over a vast geographical territory, with optimum picture quality. Although HD content, and gradually 3D content too, is available on all TV broadcasting networks, the conditions are not the same in each case (impact of operator�s choice of encoding, in particular), and this directly affects the picture quality� explain St�phanie VILLARET, Project Manager, Co-Head Satellite Practice.

Growing demand for satellite capacity for TV broadcasting

In spite of a slowdown in the number of new TV channels in standard quality, and even considering advances in the compression and broadcast standards used (the DVB-S2/MPEG-4 combination still mainly used to broadcast HD channels), the spread of HD delivery should help sustain growth in the satellite TV broadcasting market for many years to come, both in North America and Western Europe.

HDTV is still the chief growth outlet for satellite operators in the TV market.
TV homes are becoming better and better equipped to receive and record in high definition. The United Kingdom has the highest take-up of HDTV sets (almost all TVs sold in the country are now "HD ready"): 59% of homes are equipped with a compatible set compared with 57% in the United States, 46% in France and 39% in Germany.
HDTV take-up in Western Europe is a little behind the United States, although development of the market in North America did start a few years earlier (early 2000 in the United States, 2005 in Western Europe).

Emergence of 3DTV

Initially spurred on by video games and movie theaters, 3D is now besieging the TV market. 2010 was punctuated by numerous announcements of 3D channel launches, many featuring special one-off events and VoD services, and a few broadcasting non-stop
The number of 3D channels available on satellite is still limited and the catalogue of 3D programs still lacking. All of the 3D VoD services launched by operators on the various networks ultimately offer much the same content. The scarcity of 3D programs offers little in the way of exclusivity contracts and there are few opportunities for differentiating the various solutions on the market. If the number of non-stop 3D channels and 3D VoD services were to continue to grow in the future, lDATE estimates that in 2015, the 3D service would take up around ten frequency channels on each of the leading DTH premium platforms, such as CanalSat in France, Sky in the United Kingdom and ones in the United States. By 2015, around twenty 3D satellite channels should be available in North America and thirty or so in Western Europe.

Project Manager
St�phanie VILLARET

Please also visit our blog with the latest news about our research programme or read the full press release which you can download here

N�552 - Mobile VoIP -

2011-06-03

IDATE has just published its new report �Mobile VoIP�. This study looks at the changing landscape of the mobile VoIP market; the main over the top players, the new entrants together with what they bring, and how the operators are reacting. The technical challenges are assessed, and an analysis as to the level of threat mobile VoIP brings to operator revenues is made. It concludes with a scenario for the development of this emerging market.

�In response to the rising traction of VoIP, many operators are being cautious. Whilst most do not ban VoIP outright, many have put in certain conditions such as an additional surcharge for VoIP usage, or acceptance of the application only on a high-priced voice tariff.�, says Soichi Nakajima, senior consultant at IDATE�s Internet Business Unit. �In any case, operators - if necessary - can alter their voice plans in order to lessen the attractiveness of VoIP; this is already happening to a certain extent with the abundance of calling minutes included in the monthly tariff. Still, some operators have decided to partner with VoIP players, and these tend to be the challenging operators. Finally, the countries in which there are fewer operators and therefore less competition have the stricter stance on VoIP in general.�

Skype, the king of the Mobile VoIP over-the-top players
For over-the-top VoIP players, the traditional business model can be simply reduced to these three steps:

� Offer free VoIP calls, including international calls, but between your own users only.

� Users encourage others to join, so that they can call each other for free; this viral adoption grows the subscriber base.

� Gain revenue from other premium services, such as international calling to landlines and mobiles.

This model is based on the network effect, whereby the more people use the service the more valuable it becomes, thus encouraging ever-more adoption of the service. From a user perspective, there is no point if there are many providers fragmenting the market; ideally, all users should be using the same provider so that all calls are free. The most popular provider then gains more and more subscribers at the expense of the others, resulting in a winner-takes-all situation.
With over 560 million registered users, Skype is undoubtedly the king in this field, and continues to impose their dominance by pre-integrating the Skype service into as many devices as possible, not only mobiles and PCs but also TVs and game consoles.

Other players seek to differentiate
In order to differentiate, the smaller players and start-ups are offering an extra value proposition to attract users. Free calls between the same VoIP client is standard in this market, and the strategies taken to offer more value, and by which operator, are as follows:
� Integrating social networking elements and various messaging platforms:
fring, Nimbuzz
� Defining a specific target:
Tru (international callers), TalkFree (emerging countries)
� Moving into video telephony over IP:
fring, Tango, (Skype also moving into this domain)
� Free and simple to use (no account needed):
Viber, Tango

However, whilst these other VoIP players are challenging Skype, ultimately the landscape is as good as a Skype monopoly. It 560 million registered users tower above its closest rivals, with less than a tenth of this number.
Connectivity
Regarding connectivity for mobile VoIP, there are three methods: call over WiFi, call over an operator data network, or make a call using the operator voice network through a call-back feature (the call is connected to a gateway using a local operator network, from where the gateway converts the call to VoIP). As the table below suggests, only Skype and Tru offer this third option, and in both cases the use case is for making international calls to a standard fixed line or mobile number. For all other players covered in this report, the connectivity relies on an unmanaged operator data network, advertising that their calls require no standard voice minutes.

Project Manager
Soichi NAKAJIMA

Please also visit our blog with the latest news about our research programme or read the full press release which you can download here

N�550 - Connected TV Forum 2011 -

2011-05-18

IDATE provides regular analyses of the main trends shaping the world�s Television markets. On the occasion of the Connected TV Forum in London (18-19 May 2011), IDATE has released its Connected TV Forecasts.

App Stores Connected TV�s Killer App?

Key component of the success of smartphones, the app stores may well be a major adoption and monetisation driver for Smart TV � at least this is what manufacturers of connected devices would like to see happen, some of which have already begun to deploy their own application stores. For the record, an app store is a platform for downloading free and fee-based applications on a connected device, open to all developers and technically managed by a single operator who controls the publication (through a validation process) and billing of content.

Selling Applications� In Order to Sell TVs

The benefits of an app store on TV for a content provider are numerous and well identified: addressing a large audience via a mass media, immersing a broad range of audiences in its own "branded" universe, being referenced in a structured and rewarding distribution channel and enjoying a stable, transparent and favourable revenue-sharing model (provided the 70- 30 ratio is also adopted as the norm on connected TV).

For manufacturers of connected devices, the interests of offering an app store are twofold:
� develop a new revenue stream through the commissions charged on developer earnings;
� grow product sales by using the app store as a selling point.

The second objective actually prevails over the first, as is once again demonstrated by the Apple example: Steve Jobs' company considers that it won�t make any significant profits on the sale of applications because of their low unit price unit and because the bulk of revenues are destined to their developers. However, the App Store serves as a magnet for selling the company�s high-tech equipment (iPhone, iPad).

Similarly, the application stores could enable manufacturers of TVs, Blu-ray players, home theatre systems, media centres and other connected devices to increase their sales (by promoting the replacement of existing equipments), justify higher prices and progressively reach out to a more upmarket customer base (also known as up-selling). The app stores could thus support the growth of OEM sales (via a dual volume and price effect).

Upcoming Challenges

The development of app stores on connected TV raises several questions, among which:
� Platform user-friendliness: the adoption of app stores on TV by consumers will largely depend on the user-friendliness of these services, which should be both simple and comfortable to use, i.e., intuitive, fast, clear, fluid and feature effective search tools. From this point of view, the quality of the remote control will be crucial: it will have to feature, at a minimum, a mouse, a keyboard and/or a pointer facilitating text entry, menu selection and browsing.
� The risk of technological fragmentation: since each OEM is developing its branded pp store, the adoption of common technology standards is necessary to ensure the uniformity and hence the interoperability of platforms and enable developers to distribute their applications through a large number of stores without incurring excessive porting and adaptation costs. With this in mind, Philips has opted for the open CE-HTML TV standard for its Net platform. Based on existing standards of the open Internet, this language was specifically designed for creating user interfaces for consumer electronics such as TV sets.
� The acquisition of aggregation and content distribution skills: for a TV manufacturer, opening an app store involves learning a new trade, i.e. that of content aggregator and distributor, as well as acquiring the associated know-how: management of the distribution platform (editorialisation, maintenance, updates, development, etc.), contractual relationships with content providers, billing, customer relationship management, etc. From this perspective, the actors already operating a mobile app store such as Google and Apple are at a serious advantage: in addition to their experience as managers of application platforms, they already have a large installed customer base. When it was launched, the Apple App Store had already benefited millions of customer accounts

The First Deployments�
A pioneer in the field of app stores on connected TV, Samsung has launched Samsung Apps as soon as March 2010 in the US. Since then, others have followed suit, including Yahoo!, Google and Philips and waiting for Apple.

Sophie Girieud
Senior Consultant IDATE
Innovative video services
s.girieud@idate.org

To read the full press release please download it here or visit our blog

More information about the Connected TV Forum in London online

N�549 - LTE World Summit 2011 -

2011-05-17

IDATE provides regular analyses of the main trends shaping the world�s mobile markets: networks, devices and services. On the occasion of the LTE World Summit in Amsterdam (17-18 May 2011), IDATE has released its LTE Forecasts.

LTE pricing: towards combinations of monthly caps, speeds and QoS?

The pricing of mobile data services is getting ever more sophisticated with the availability of a large variety of devices:
� Dongles and PC with embedded LTE modem
� Personal hotspots/ mobile hotspots
� Smartphones, sometimes including a hotspot software feature
� Tablets
� Connected devices, such as eReaders and portable game consoles
� M2M (Machine-to-Machine devices)
The pricing for the hotspot software feature associated with a smartphone is often billed by the mobile operator as a �tethering� option.

The raft of new tariff packages for LTE are benefiting from the capacity of new networks. They tend to be based upon various combinations of the following parameters:
� Monthly subscriptions for postpaid packages, ranging from EUR 40 in Germany to EUR 90 in Austria
� Monthly caps: up to 30 GB per month for TeliaSonera in Sweden or A1 Telekom Austria. This is a significant shift compared given the monthly caps applied to 3G (2 GB per month is often imposed). In the USA, the cap is in the 5-10 GB range and 5-7 GB in Japan. Caps of 4G are mainly driven by competition issues and the saturation level of 3G networks.
� Downlink speeds: Vodafone Germany proposes a dedicated package with downlink speed of (up to) 50 Mbps. Here, it is right to urge caution on the part of MNOs when advertising maximum data rates as customers as observed speeds might drop well below this level.
� Quality of service: �premium� subscriptions dedicated to business customers provide QoS prioritisation during peak hours for data traffic. This is being implemented by Vodafone in Europe on its 3G networks after a successful introduction in Spain.
� Time of day (peak/off-peak hours): in order to shift usage to off-peak hours, some mobile operators are introducing this differentiation on their 3G networks
� Range of OTT (over-the-top) services such as unlimited access to social networks, authorisation to use VoIP client on the smartphone and authorisation to use P2P applications
� Various other options including a hot-spot option on smartphones, and tethering The more innovative packages tend to combine two or more of these parameters: in Germany, Vodafone proposes a combination of monthly caps and downlink data rates for its LTE service.

Customer experience is a key element when users select 3G or LTE service plans: the latter not only provide higher speeds but also reduced latency which, according TeliaSonera, is a major improvement on 3G performances.
In the months ahead, new forms of bundling (of the type of mobile broadband with television service, or fixed-line telephony) may well emerge, as might new revenue sharing models. Further, one could see various forms of split billing between the MNO and the content provider being implemented.

Global LTE forecasts

IDATE predicts that, in 2015, there will be 371 million LTE users worldwide. Based on modelling results and considering the case of an MNO already operating GSM and 3G networks, the total cumulated investment for the LTE RAN overlay deployment from 2011 to 2018 will come to 335 million EUR.
We will see a great many new smartphones and connected devices (dongles, tablets, connected laptops, routers�) coming onto the LTE market in 2011. It will be the US and Asia that drive LTE growth overall, while TD-LTE will take off in China and in India in the near future.
Innovative services and business models, such as investment/revenue sharing, and VoLTE which can bring benefits to both operators and subscribers, need to be deployed if operators are to maximise the potential of LTE deployments, maintain ARPU levels and have their network continue to be a smart pipe.

Fr�d�ric Pujol
f.pujol@idate.org

To read the full press release please download it here or visit our blog

More information about LTE research solutions here

N�548 - IDATE releases the 11th edition of its Yearbook -

2011-06-03

IDATE, the non-profit and independent European analyst house specialising in global technology research has published the 11th edition of the DigiWorld Yearbook. The report provides a concise portrait of the digital economy and finds total spending on digital technologies and services reached �2,754 billion in 2010. The official launch event took place on 01 June in London with Michel Combes, CEO Vodafone Europe.

The first official launch party took place on 26 April 2011 in Paris with Ben and will be followed by launch parties Ben Verwaayen, CEO du groupe Alcatel-Lucent in London on 1st June with Michel Combes, CEO Region Europe, Vodafone.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

TheDigiWorld Yearbook is published in English and French and a series launch ceremonies for the report will be taking place in Paris & London. The release of this 11th anniversary edition, is also be marked by a dedicated website for the DigiWorld Yearbook which is also available in eBook and iPad-compatible versions

www.digiworld.org

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

The UK�s digital economy
This year�s Yearbook highlights annual global growth of 3.3% with the UK technology sector lagging at 0.84%. Notably other major European economies are experiencing higher overall growth rates with France and Germany both seeing increases of around 2% in the same period.

Despite the UK technology sector experiencing low growth rates UK consumers and businesses combined are still Europe�s biggest revenue generators on technology with an average revenue per capita of �2,060 / �1,800 between 2010 and 2011. This compares to an average revenue per capita of �1,230 in Spain and �1,950 in Germany. The UKs revenue figures were inflated by especially buoyant share of businesses on technology revenue which represented 45% of the total compared to an EU average of 38% of total technology revenues.

Yves Gassot, CEO, IDATE commented: �We can see from this year�s figures that growth in the UK is moderate and underperforming European and global peers.� He continued: �However we shouldn�t underestimate the resilience of the UK technology market and it�s encouraging to see business spending on technology was robust during 2010.�

The global and emerging market perspective
From a global perspective, North America has again pulled ahead of Europe. Although emerging markets as a group are still driving the planet�s growth � which is logical given the momentum created by the huge surge in equipment levels however there are significant variances between developing markets.

The differences between China and India are especially interesting, with the Chinese market having managed to translate the rise in unit sales into a rise in revenue, not only at home but also abroad, whereas the Indian market remains largely one of spectacular volume only. To give an example: India�s average 46% increase in mobile customer numbers translated into an only 13% increase in sales revenue for carriers. Similar nuances can also be found when comparing Latin American and African markets.
An entire chapter of the DigiWorld Yearbook is devoted to examining how the transition to IP and digital is playing out in the major ICT sectors. The Internet sector as a whole � including access, software and content � now accounts for around 8% of the ICT services market in Europe and in the United States, with the potential to rise to 20% in the medium term. The spectacular increase in volume that is expected in certain corners of the open Web, especially online video and social networking, has led stakeholders to wonder very openly about how to monetise these new services.
�2010 marked a slight recovery for DigiWorld markets which reported an average 3% growth, on the heels of a very glum year in 2009,� according to Didier Pouillot, director of the DigiWorld Yearbook project �However this overall growth trend masks distinct performances in terms of industries and geographic markets � not all of which have been so healthy.�

The DigiWorld Yearbook is published in English and French and available in print and PDF format, and for eBook and iPad. For more information please visit: www.digiworld.org

About IDATE�s DigiWorld Programme
Founded in 1977, IDATE is one of Europe�s foremost market analysis and consulting firms whose mission is to provide assistance in strategic decision-making for its clients in the telecom, Internet and media industries. Our DigiWorld Programme was created 11 years ago to provide support to the Institute�s initiatives and to highlight the role of the digital economy.
The DigiWorld Programme has become instrumental in providing a forum for international debate and consists of:
� DigiWorld Executive Forum: a series of monthly meetings in European capitals plus international business trips;
� DigiWorld Events: the annual DigiWorld Summit and a series of associated seminars devoted to exploring the central issues of the day;
� DigiWorld Publishing: the DigiWorld Yearbook and the DigiWorld Economic Journal;
� DigiWorld Collaborative Research: an annual think-tank between member companies, an IDATE team and experts from the academic world.

The DigiWorld Yearbook is financed by IDATE�s DigiWorld Programme whose membership includes over 30 prominent ICT industry enterprises such as: At&t, Cisco, IBM, Google and Orange.

The DigiWorld Summit on 16 and 17 November 2011 will also provide an opportunity to discuss the trends and disruptions examined in IDATE reports with top-flight industry personalities.

About the research methodology
The DigiWorld year book is a compilation of the research IDATE conducts during the year that encapsulates wide areas including primary studies focused on the DigiWorld (Telecom, IT & Internet). In addition the DigiWorld Yearbook draws on IDATE�s extensive secondary database. The information in IDATE�s database is based on aggregation from numerous bodies such as regulators, operators, statistical offices and specialised agencies & bureaux. IDATE then applies its industry expertise to ensure congruence between different sources. This is also further informed by regular work IDATE carries out for stakeholders such as the Broadband coverage survey for the EU or international benchmark data for Ofcom.

N�547 - Appstores -

2011-04-06

Upcoming app store wars on connected TV

A key ingredient in the success of smartphones, app stores could also prove a major force in driving the adoption and monetization of smart TVs � at least that�s what the makers of Internet-ready devices are hoping, of which some have already begun rolling out their application stores.

For manufacturers of connected devices, operating an app store makes sense on two fronts: first, as a way to develop a new revenue stream thanks to commissions on developers� app sales and second, and more importantly, to help boost the sales of their connected devices by using their app stores as a key selling point.

Following in the footsteps of Samsung and its Samsung Apps for connected TV which launched back in March 2010 in the United States, Yahoo and Google are now gearing up to deploy their TV app stores as well. But the most highly anticipated development here comes from Apple � will the leading mobile app store expand into television or will it pull out of the competition, opting instead to bank on the iPad as a personal TV?

This issue is a part of our annual service Connected TV. For more information click here.

IDATE is analyst partner of the upcoming Connected TV Summit in London, 18th & 19th of May 2011. More information about this event on this website

N�546 - e-Books -

2011-03-14

L�IDATE pr�sentera au Salon du Livre de Paris, un bilan de l�ann�e �coul�e sur les march�s du livre num�rique en s�appuyant sur l��tude E-Books parue en d�cembre. L�occasion de revenir sur le d�collage des ventes d�e-books, les usages sur les diff�rents terminaux (e-readers, smartphones, tablettes, etc.), les pr�visions � horizon 2014 ainsi que les tensions sur la cha�ne de valeur num�rique naissante. Organis�e en partenariat avec le Service du Livre et de la lecture du Minist�re de la culture, la pr�sentation aura lieu vendredi 18 mars de 12h00 � 13h00 dans le Caf� Litt�raire du Centre national du livre (stand N54).

� Lors du Salon du Livre de Paris de 2010, le Japon �tait le premier march� mondial du livre num�rique, Amazon jouissait d�un quasi monopole sur le march� am�ricain, et aucun march� europ�en ne g�n�rait plus de 100 millions d�euros de ventes d�e-books. Un an plus tard, les Etats-Unis ont d�pass� le Japon et sont le th��tre d�une concurrence exacerb�e entre Amazon, Apple et Google, alors que les march�s europ�ens commencent � �merger � rel�ve Marc Leiba, consultant � l�IDATE. � Des tensions apparaissent sur la cha�ne de valeur num�rique avec la question du prix de vente comme principale pierre d�achoppement entre les diff�rents acteurs de la cha�ne � poursuit-il.

Le livre num�rique, une r�alit� mondiale
La migration num�rique du livre a partout commenc�. Aux Etats-Unis, les ventes d�e-books atteignent 600 millions d�euros � fin 2010, en hausse de 163% sur un an. Le march� est dynamis� par la force de frappe d�acteurs comme Amazon, Apple et Google. Le Japon est un march� d�j� mature mais dont la croissance ralentit, +19% sur un an. Les march�s europ�ens amorcent leur d�collage, avec l�Allemagne et le Royaume-Uni comme poids lourds de la zone. Les Etats-Unis sont par ailleurs le seul v�ritable march� pour les e-readers (terminaux d�di�s � la lecture d�e-books) avec pr�s de 7 millions d�unit�s vendus l�an dernier. Ailleurs, les usages se d�veloppent essentiellement via l�ordinateur, les smartphones et les tablettes.

Qui ne menace pas � terme le march� global de l��dition
A horizon 2014, les march�s globaux (papier + num�rique) de l��dition devraient se stabiliser car les ventes d�e-books suffiront � compenser le d�clin des ventes de livres imprim�s. Ceci s�explique par un ph�nom�ne de ventes incr�mentales, c'est-�-dire de ventes d�e-books qui n�auraient pas d��quivalent sur le march� papier, notamment gr�ce � la connectivit� des terminaux de lecture (e-readers, smartphones, tablettes) reli�s � des librairies en ligne. A horizon 2015, l'avenir du march� d�pendra de deux param�tres principaux : le degr� de conversion au num�rique des lecteurs occasionnels (qui repr�sentent la majorit� du march� du livre en volume) et l�essor du livre enrichi, produit multim�dia hybride, susceptible d'attirer un public non lecteur de livres traditionnels.

Tensions sur la cha�ne de valeur
Sur la cha�ne de valeur num�rique, les rapports de force se tendent. Les �diteurs r�affirment en amont leur valeur aupr�s d'auteurs et d'agents tent�s de les contourner. En aval, ils essaient de tourner � leur avantage les n�gociations avec les revendeurs d�e-books, quitte � retirer leur catalogue de certaines boutiques en ligne. La concurrence des revendeurs se d�veloppe � �chelle plan�taire autour d�acteurs majeurs comme Amazon qui s'appuie sur l'offre premium la plus d�velopp�e avec un positionnement tarifaire agressif, Apple qui d�veloppe des offres moins larges mais plus locales sur iBooks et Google avec Google EBooks misant sur son programme de num�risation et son moteur de recherche pour capter un march� de longue tra�ne.

La bataille du prix
Les acheteurs de livres num�riques se montrent tr�s sensibles au prix de vente qu�ils estiment devoir se situer 40% minimum en de�� du prix du livre papier. Par cons�quent, les �diteurs tentent d�imposer un prix unique du livre num�rique qu�ils seraient seuls � d�terminer afin de ne pas menacer trop fortement les livres reli�s d�une part et ne pas laisser les consommateurs se cristalliser d�finitivement sur un prix plafond d�autre part. Cette bataille du prix se traduit notamment par les lois sur le prix unique du livre ou encore par l�instauration d�un contrat de mandat o� le revendeur pr�l�ve une commission variable sur le prix de vente fix� par l��diteur.

Chef de projet
Marc Leiba

Visitez aussi notre blog IDATE pour suivre toutes nos actualit�s

N�545 - Global LTE forecasts -

2011-02-14

IDATE provides regular analyses of the main trends shaping the world�s mobile markets: networks, devices and services. On the occasion of the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona (14-17 February 2011), IDATE have teamed up to publish the new edition of its special White Paper: �LTE 2011 - Markets & Trends�.

IDATE predicts that, in 2015, there will be 371 million LTE users worldwide. Based on modelling results and considering the case of an MNO already operating GSM and 3G networks, the total cumulated investment for the LTE RAN overlay deployment from 2011 to 2018 will come to 335 million EUR.

We will see a great many new smartphones and connected devices (dongles, tablets, connected laptops, routers�) coming onto the LTE market in 2011. It will be the US and Asia that drive LTE growth overall, while TD-LTE will take off in China and in India in the near future.

Innovative services and business models, such as investment/revenue sharing, and VoLTE which can bring benefits to both operators and subscribers, need to be deployed if operators are to maximise the potential of LTE deployments, maintain ARPU levels and have their network continue to be a smart pipe.

N�544 - Status of FTTH in Europe -

2011-02-11

In Europe, the growth rate for subscribers and homes/buildings passed picked up speed in 2010 � increasing to 22% and 21%, respectively, between June and December 2010. In the EU-36 (including Russia), there were nearly 8.1 million FTTH/B subscribers and close to 33 million homes/buildings passed. Excluding Russia, there were 3.9 millions subscribers and 22.3 million homes passed in Europe at the end of 2010.

�We are seeing steady growth in the European FTTH/B market, which is being spurred largely by Eastern European countries, and especially Russia,� says Roland Montagne, Director of IDATE�s Telecoms Business Unit. �European incumbents are becoming increasingly involved in FTTH, and nearly all have FTTH rollout plans or are already deploying fibre on a large scale.�

Main trends in the European FTTH/B market at the end of 2010
� A notable proportionate decrease in homes passed by municipalities & utilities.
� Slight growth in France, Sweden and Norway: 2%, 4% and 5% increase, respectively, in homes passed for the second half of 2010.
� The highest growth is in Eastern Europe, especially in Latvia, reporting a 61% rise in the second half of the year, Lithuania at 33% and Estonia at 26% during that same period.
� We are seeing increased coverage in the new EU markets like Turkey and Ukraine.
� FTTB is still the main architecture deployed at the end of December 2010, with most players opting for Ethernet technology.
� Most European incumbents have integrated FTTH offers or are currently involved in rollouts.
� National broadband plans are taking over from local initiatives and stimulating private initiatives, like the recent announcement from France Telecom.
� Aside from Russia, the majority of subscribers (around 67% of FTTH/B subscribers at the end of 2010) are concentrated in eight countries in Western and Northern Europe: Sweden, Italy, France, Lithuania, Norway, the Netherlands, Slovakia and Turkey.

European FTTH/B market as part of the global total
Residential and business users in Europe are not yet convinced of the benefits of FTTH, and penetration rates at the end of 2010 (% of subscribers out of total homes passed) were still very low: 17.5% compared to 39% in Japan and 34% in the United States.

Roland Montagne
Director Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE
r.montagne@idate.org

To read the full article please download the press release on this page or visit our blog

N�542 - Mobile Internet -

2011-01-25

IDATE has just published its new report �Mobile Internet�. Mobile Internet is here and geared for growth. For 2015 the worldwide penetration rate of Mobile Internet will reach 37% - or 2.67 billion users - generating access revenues of 161 billion EUR. This report provides detailed information about market's structure, data & forecasts 2008-2015, player profiles and strategies. It also spotlights the current and upcoming trends and the different kinds of mobile Internet usages.

�The mobile Internet has reached a stage where it is finally taking off in Western Europe and North America, where it is poised to follow the developments which have so far been seen in Japan for almost a full decade and, to a lesser extent, South Korea�, says Soichi Nakajima, senior consultant of IDATE�s Internet Business Unit.� Regarding mobile connectivity devices such as USB dongles, their value is in fact higher than that of mobile phones today and this trend is expected to continue. The ARPU for mobile connectivity devices, depending on the country and region, can be more than double that of smartphones. This trend is expected to continue, with sustained demand in particular of business users. This also means for operators, however, that these modems consume more traffic on a per subscription basis�.

Smartphone and applications phenomena play their part in driving mobile Internet usage
Smartphone marketing goes mainstream
There are several factors which have enabled this �ready for take-off� stage. Regarding the technological factors, the 3G networks are finally in place, allowing connection speeds and coverage rates which are satisfactory for the majority of users. There are handsets now too, mainly in the form of smartphones, which can make use of the network quality and are more suited to the mobile Internet experience with bigger screens, higher processing power and so on. Perhaps even more important have been the marketing factors. Even with the technologies in place, without efficient marketing these technologies would not be used, or rather not be known, to the majority of people. However, the phenomenon created originally by the Apple iPhone, and all other players who followed such as Google with their Android OS, Samsung with their Galaxy series and so on, have made sure that a wide majority of people are at least aware of the existence of smartphones and together with it applications.

Applications as a new point of entry to the mobile Internet� although not the prime
The introduction of application stores and the concept of applications on mobile phones have opened a new entry point to the mobile Internet. Surveys show that people who possess a smartphone are much more likely to access the mobile Internet (as well as all other multimedia activities), and in particular application usage is very high. However, overall, browsing is the preferred access method over applications to access the mobile Internet, with the exception of specific genres such as gaming and mapping. These genres have direct interactions with the users and are required instantaneously and they appear to be more popular with applications. Conversely, for more generic purposes, browsing seems to be the preferred option.

To say mobile Internet properly, say �mobile connectivity devices� � as well as �smartphones�
Mobile connectivity devices are better value
Whilst the mobile market is currently seeing talk centred on smartphones and application stores, quietly going about their business in terms of the mobile Internet are the traditional forms of mobile Internet in the form of mobile connectivity devices, primarily USB dongles.
Ultimately, the mobile Internet experience is rather different between smartphones and USB dongles. Whereas the former is of the form �Internet on the mobile phone�, the latter is more in the form of �fixed Internet going mobile�. That is to say, USB modems are purely connectivity offerings, allowing laptops and netbooks to connect to the Internet anywhere (as long as there is mobile connectivity), and thus users can experience Internet use almost identical to their very familiar, fixed, environment. Whilst this form of the mobile Internet may be more for business users rather than the general public, it cannot be ignored. In terms of ARPU, IDATE estimates that mobile connectivity devices generate more than double that of smartphones, thus presenting a much higher value, although the number of their shipments are lower than 10% of mobile phones. This also means, however, that the traffic volume created for each modem is also higher, especially in light of the fact that the pricing for these modems is much lower compared to smartphones,

New mobile connectivity devices will not disrupt overall market, although embedded modems will overtake external ones in near future
With Apple introducing the iPad, Samsung following with the Galaxy Tab, and with many players also announcing their version of tablets to be introduced in the near future, the talk in 2010 has very often been around tablets and their expected rapid growth in the market. Public forecasts include 81 million tablet shipments in 2015, according to Juniper Research, and 46 million in 2014, so says IDC. However, IDATE believes that most of these will use WiFi for connectivity, and only a limited number will use the cellular connectivity on the go. As a result, the overall forecast for mobile connectivity device shipments will grow at a steady rate, with the growth rate steadily decreasing; this will not be heavily impacted by the current hype around tablets. As for MiFi devices, IDATE expects less impacts than tablets, and will again not influence the overall growth rate of mobile connectivity devices. The important thing to note about mobile connectivity device shipments is that the external and embedded breakdown will inverse. IDATE expects that by around 2013, the number of mobile connectivity devices shipped in the form of embedded modules will overtake the likes of USB dongles, mainly due to the reduced cost of embedding the modules and increased convenience for the users.

Project Manager
Soichi NAKAJIMA

Please also visit our blog to read the full article or download the press release on this page

N�541 - World Television Market -

2011-01-12

IDATE has just released the 21st edition of its biannual �World TV Markets� report. The TV industry is back on a growth path, with a global market of EUR 289.2 billion, which marks a 7.1% increase compared to 2009. This report analyses the overriding trends and changes taking place in the markets around the globe. It explores the driving forces behind the market�s growth and transformation, including an examination of the chief market trends, plus volume and value forecasts up to 2014 by geographical area and by country.

�2010 has been a flourishing year overall for the audiovisual industry�, says Florence Le Borgne, Director of IDATE�s TV & Digital Content Business Unit. �Most of the mature markets are reporting encouraging growth rates, in particular thanks to increasingly higher advertising revenue. In the meantime, the pay-TV sector has consolidated its new status as the industry�s most important source of income, generating 48% of the sector�s revenue in 2010 versus 43% for advertising. These percentages should remain more or less stable in the coming years.�

Change in Television Revenue
IDATE estimates that the worldwide television market in 2010 was worth 289.2 billion EUR, rising 7.1% compared to 2009. The industry is therefore back on a growth path after a year of relative stagnation � reporting growth of a mere 0.6% in 2009.
The United States remains the largest television market in the world with a turnover of 103 billion EUR in 2010, rising 4.5% in a year after posting a slight dip (-0.7%) in 2009. The North American region�s share of the global market declined to 37% in 2010 compared to 38% in 2009.
As the second largest regional market, Europe had a turnover of 84.4 billion EUR in 2010, a rise of 6.6% compared to 2009. The United Kingdom, Germany and France are the heavyweights in the region and together represent more than half (56%) of the region's revenue. While the United Kingdom and France saw an increase of 6.2% and 5.3%, respectively, Germany is making slower progress (1.2%). The Europe share of the global market has stagnated at 29%.
Asia/Pacific recorded a great growth in its TV market of 9.1% in 2010. Its share of the global market rose by 0.4 points to 22.3%. The heavyweights in the region, Japan, India and China, experienced varied results. Despite being a mature market, Japan was back on an upwards trajectory in 2010, with TV revenue increasing by 3.9%, while China was reporting a 12.2% increase, which is more than two and a half times the 2009 growth rate, and India continued to enjoy a solid momentum, reporting 13.3% growth in 2010 compared to 15.4% the year before.
Latin America displayed a good level of growth in its TV market, with an increase of 12.8%. Its market share in the worldwide market is still small (7.8%), but it is growing every year (6.4% in 2007). Brazil is the largest market in Latin American TV and alone makes up 44% of the market.
The smallest regional market, Africa/Middle East displayed the greatest growth in its TV market, with an increase of 16.9% compared to 2009. Its share of the global market is increasing to 3.6% in 2010, compared to 3.3% in 2009.

The global TV market�s growth in 2009 is due chiefly to a rise in pay-TV revenue (+8.4%), with ad revenue rising at a lesser rate (+5.8%). Public financing did rise by 6.9% in 2010 but still accounts for less than 10% of the global television market�s income.
Up until 2008, advertising was by far the primary means of funding for the industry, generating about 47% of the sector's revenue, compared to nearly 44% for paid television and 9.4% for public funding. The situation began to reverse in 2009 and, in 2010, paid television accounted for 48% compared to 43% for advertising. In the years to come, IDATE predicts this trend will become more pronounced and estimates that paid television should generate more than 49% of revenue of the worldwide television market by 2014.

Florence LE BORGNE
TV & Digital Content Business Unit Director

Please also visit our blog or download the pdf to read the full article

N�540 - Mobile Payments opportunities -

2011-01-04

Within its latest study �Mobile Payments� IDATE spotlights the mobile payment market, provides details about the related services and their technological aspects, analyses the usages and the industrial structure with a drawn of the value chain. The report makes an in-depth look in examinating several business models - for NFC, SMS, Fixed/mobile wallet & App Stores - their impacts and upcoming opportunities.

�Mobile payment is a complex market, with many technical alternatives addressing different marketing targets based on different business models. At least, four main solutions should be clearly distinguished - SMS-based payments, fixed-mobile wallets, appstores payment and NFC - with regards to their contrasting potential and competition landscapes�, writes Sophie Lubrano, Director of Studies at IDATE. �The complexity is also coming from the value chain: the mobile payment market brings together major players, which are all leaders within their core businesses: card issuers, mobile operators, handsets manufacturers, retailers, Internet giants, and also start-ups. And currently usages are still low�.

Four main markets
The m-payment market can be segmented into four main domains, each with specific issues and very different competitive landscapes:
� SMS-based technologies: Premium SMS platforms or money transfers via SMS for underbanked people
� Extension of fixed wallets such as Paypal or Amazon checkout services on the mobile
� Payment on mobile applications storefronts
� And NFC Payment.

A battle among giants
In this complex market, competition involves major players, which are all leaders within their core businesses: card issuers, mobile operators, handsets manufacturers, retailers, Internet giants. These players can rely on their customer bases, which contain millions of accounts and that sometimes include bank details such as card numbers. For instance Apple handles around 100 million iTunes accounts, Visa Europe has issued 380 million cards, and Amazon manages 114 million active customers.
Each type of player is positioned on different markets:
� Mobile operators have the widest range of services
� Internet giants provide essentially fixed-mobile wallet services, with an extension to application storefronts (Google in particular)
� Apple payment solution relies on iTunes accounts (fixed/mobile wallet and App Store)
� Cards issuers focus on NFC, as well as retailers
� Start-ups have also a wide range of services, but not on the NFC market.

Three controlled markets and the NFC open market
Between the four main solutions distinguished (SMS-based payments, fixed-mobile wallets, appstores payment and NFC), three of them are clearly controlled markets.
� Three tightly controlled markets: the SMS-based market is less competitive, as mobile operators rule here. It could be a cash cow market for operators generating high margins and is growing rapidly in emerging countries. In the mobile wallet market, the competitors are the same internet giants that dominate the fixed online payment market: PayPal, Amazon and Google. As for application storefront payments, it is fundamentally an OS battle between Apple, Google and Nokia in a narrow market. In developed countries, key developments for those markets are not coming from the mobile payment which is just an additional enabler.
� NFC is an open market: NFC payment potential is huge as it has the potential to address the specific requirements of the retail payment market. However, competition is fierce between players as most are leaders in their core markets: card issuers, mobile operators, retailers. We believe that the development of contactless services (ticketing, loyalty-programme management, access control) will help to drive mobile NFC payment. There are also some positive signs regarding the development of NFC compatible handsets: Nokia's announcement, as well as alternative ways to emulate NFC such as the MicroSD card. To conclude, although, value sharing remains l a sticking point, mobile operators have started to build partnerships with financial institutions, like in the USA: the m-payment joint-venture AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile has partnered with Discover Financial Service. The business model is still to be defined, but the market is large enough to foster partnerships

Project Manager
Sophie LUBRANO

Visit our blog for the full article or download the press release

N�539 - Happy New Year! -

2010-12-23

Click here to enter the DigiWorld...

N�538 - E-Book -

2010-12-09

IDATE has just released its market report on the e-book which takes an in-depth look at the digital book market (e-readers, mobile, tablet and PC), and provides key market data and forecasts for 2008 to 2014. It maps out the new digital value chain, explores the players� strategies through some 20 case studies, provides details on the business models being employed and analyses the key technological issues at hand: formats, metadata, DRM and display technologies.

�All literary genres have now begun to go digital. Business, scientific and technical content paved the way, and were followed by general literature and, later, the very image-centric genres such as comic books, children�s books, art and cookery books, etc., thanks to the advent of new devices,� says Marc Leiba, a senior consultant at IDATE. �Despite which, readers of the different genres are not adopting the digital format at the same rate. There are three genres in particular that are reporting a much higher rate of digital sales than their print counterparts: detective fiction, romance and science-fiction and fantasy novels.�

The digital book has the wind in its sales�

At the end of 2010, the digital book market had taken off in all of the countries covered by the report, albeit to varying degrees. The United States has become the world�s biggest market with digital book sales totalling 594 million EUR in 2010 � putting it ahead of pioneer market Japan where sales are at 527 million EUR. European markets are still relatively small by comparison, but are reporting healthy increases of around 80%. This switch to digital is affecting all literary genres now � although some are making it more quickly, especially romance, science-fiction & fantasy and detective novels � and involves a wide array of devices: e-readers, PC, mobile phones, game consoles, tablets, portable multimedia players.
By 2014, the transition to digital is not expected to have led to a destruction of value overall. Although sales for print books have been down for several years in all countries, except for France and Canada, the growing selection of digital books will only help deepen the trend, especially for those genres that have switched over the fastest. But digital book sales will help offset the decline in sales for their print counterparts, and perhaps even give the market a boost thanks to incremental sales (which would not have happened in the print universe). Looking ahead to 2015, the market�s future will play out at two levels: first in the rate at which casual readers switch over to digital (as they account for the majority of sales), followed by the impact of the enhanced book, a hybrid multimedia product that has the power to attract people who are not readers of conventional books.
For now, the digital book market is by and large just a digital version of the print market. The digital catalogue is composed chiefly of ordinary books whereas enhanced books and native digital creations are still few and far between. Added to this, those who buy digital books are the same people who buy print books, and they buy the same titles. Plus, the way digital books are priced is largely the same as print editions (unit downloads in America and Europe, and subscriptions to serialised books in Japan). Other models like rental, selling by the chapter or ad-funded, are still confined to specific genres. And, finally, aside from taxation rates, the regulatory framework governing publishing, and particularly laws stipulating a single price being applied to a book, are increasingly similar.
The balance of power is shifting in the new value chain. Publishers are working to reaffirm their value to authors further up the chain, while agents are working to circumvent them. Further down the chain, they are making content available to the public, organising its circulation and influencing the sales price. Competition is heating up for retailers as new players enter the market: classic bookshops, online books shops, aggregators, equipment manufacturers, Internet giants, mobile operators � and is developing on a planetary scale around a few major players who are breaking the codes, such as Amazon who is building an increasingly broad premium offer with very aggressive price points. Meanwhile Apple is developing a narrower but more local selection on iBooks, which is promoting the agency model, and moving into position is Google Editions (Google eBooks) which is banking on its Google Books digitisation programme, and the power of the company�s search algorithm that makes it possible to include results from the pages of books

Project Manager
Marc LEIBA

Find all the news on our blog

N�537 - Satellite's markets -

2010-12-02

IDATE has just released its �Satellite Markets� report. This report analyses the key satellite markets, both civilian and military, and allows readers to gain real insight on future market opportunities and the outstanding medium-term issues for satellite market players. It also pinpoints the central challenges that satellite operators are having to contend with � hybridization with terrestrial networks being undoubtedly the main one � and the assets they have to forge a solid foothold in the various future markets.

�Considering the main satellite services being examined in this report, IDATE believes that video broadcasting services in emerging countries, as well as high definition and 3D TV � despite lingering uncertainties over the standard itself, the price of equipment and whether users will embrace it � all have the greatest medium-term market potential for satellite operators, in all corners of the globe combined�, comments Maxime Baudry, project manager and senior consultant at IDATE. �We also expect to see strong growth in the military segment and in the areas of telecommunications and imaging. Broadband access is another field of opportunity, albeit to varying degrees depending on the region, offering moderate prospects in Europe and North America but very healthy ones in Africa and the Middle East.�

New Growth outlets emerging

The digital TV broadcasting market continues to develop, and regions such as Asia and Africa/the Middle East offer sizeable growth potential. But it is HDTV and 3D that represent an especially important source of growth for satellite operators. Their inherent assets of coverage, network capacity and their ties with premium pay-TV services are still substantial ones when it comes to distribution. HDTV offers in particular are expected to spur a rise in demand for satellite broadcasting capacity: an expansion of existing offers and the launch of new channels and even new packages. HDTV is also expected to become the new TV broadcasting standard. However, upcoming technical transitions (spread of MPEG-4, rollout of DVB-S2 which will mean a roughly 30% gain in capacity on each transponder) along with the relatively slow take-off of 3D could well mean that this rise in demand for satellite capacity will take place only gradually.
The two-way Internet access market is another significant source of growth, but to different degrees depending on the region. While potential is rather limited in industrialised parts of the world, such as Europe and North America, especially because of competition from terrestrial and government policies that clearly favour mobile terrestrial networks, Africa and the Middle East do appear to be fertile ground for a satellite-based solution because of the high proportion of rural dwellers there and the lack of suitable telecommunications infrastructure.
The military market has been growing since the start of the war in Afghanistan in 2001. Occupying 80% of American commercial satellites� capacity, the US government is the biggest user of civilian payload and, even though it is building satellites for its own use, they will not be able to satisfy all of the military�s needs. This huge increase in demand is due mainly to the growing use of drones that are piloted via satellite, and whose role is expanding from reconnaissance into combat missions. This trend is also underway in Europe with the current development of several combat drone programmes, although the situation is different in that European armed forces relay mainly on dedicated military satellite capacity.
One last major source of growth for the satellite industry is Earth observation. There are two distinct clienteles for this market: the military which accounts for around 70% of demand for satellite images, particularly for gathering intelligence on warzones (surveillance of nuclear installations, terrorist camps, etc.); the other major segment being the one driven by the Internet giants who acquire massive quantities of high resolution images for their online mapping services, such as Google Maps and Microsoft Virtual Earth. This market does appear to be tapering off slightly, however.
There are also niche markets that offer room for growth, even if they represent less than 10% of the satellite capacity used around the globe. Of particular note is M2M (machine-to-machine solutions) via satellite in desert/maritime regions, along with maritime and aeronautical telecom solutions which, by definition, rely on satellite. For MSS operators, the in-flight communications market is a small one, but if it brings in money for airline companies and finds a big enough user base, it could become a lucrative niche market in the same way maritime telecommunications have.

Project Manager
Maxime BAUDRY

Visit our blog for full article or download the press release

N�536 - Inventory of FTTH in Middle East -

2010-12-30

In the Middle East, UAE are the main FTTH/B market, representing more than 89% of total Homes Passed and 96% of subscribers in the region. In other countries, FTTH/B deployments are very limited and mainly due to incumbents and housing companies. On their part, municipalities, which initiated most of the FTTH/B projects in Europe, do not seem to get highly involved in deployments. The ultra-fast broadband market continues to develop quickly in most regions around the globe, in terms of both subscribers and homes passed.

As in previous years, IDATE has been commissioned by the FTTH Council Europe to provide an overview of the status of FTTH rollouts across Middle East at 2Q and 3Q 2010.

� At end September 2010, there were 256,150 FTTH/B subscribers over more than 1 million Homes Passed in the region.

� To date, IDATE has identified about 30 FTTH/B projects in the region. Among those projects, 10 count more than 2,500 Homes/Buildings Passed

Incumbents are the main involved players and represent about 65% of total Homes/Buildings Passed at 3Q2010. Among other players, housing companies and real estate developers seem to have a great interest in FTTH/B which can increase value of their buildings.

A part for some specific groups involved in the reconstruction of some cities (e.g. in Lebanon), municipalities are clearly not involved in FTTH/B deployment in Middle East. Regarding utilities, we must notice that some have shown their interest in FTTH/B deployments, such as Haya Water in Oman and EWA in Barhain.

Deployments have increased less rapidly than new subscriptions during first half 2010 (respectively +25% and +59%) and we noted a real slowdown during the third quarter, which can be explained by the shortness of economical activity during Ramadan.

On the contrary to European incumbents, which, in most cases, have began deploying FTTx infrastructure several months after alternative telcos in order to keep their leadership in the broadband market, competition in Middle East is clearly not a driver for FTTH/B expansion in the region.
Incumbents mainly consider FTTH/B has a real differentiator that can help confirm their dynamism on the international scene, more than a way to compete nationally against alternative operators.

Some of them, such as Etisalat, are indeed acting very aggressively on the FTTH/B market and, thanks to its involvement and this of its main competitor Du, it has helped UAE entering the Global Ranking : the part of FTTH/B subscribers in total households has exceeded 30% in September 2010. We also to notice that penetration rate in Middle East with 24,5% in June 2010 is better than in Europe.

A part from UAE, some countries are beginning to show their ambitions regarding FTTH/B as Qatar for instance, where incumbent QTel announced its plan to invest 600 million QR (about 126 million EUR) in the first phase of its new FTTH/B program which aims to provide massively FTTH/B access to households by end 2013.

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The Middle East FTTH/B market is still in its infancy. UAE is clearly a country a part, thanks to the involvement of both the incumbent Etisalat and its main challenger Du.

In other countries, housing companies and real estate developers are much more involved than others players as FTTH/B is considered as value-added for their new housing programs.
Then some utilities take the advantage of their knowledge in civil works to enter this new market.
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N�535 - Connected TV -

2010-11-20

IDATE has just released its �Connected TV� market report which explores new connected TV services, how over-the-top (OTT) offers are positioned and analyses the main strategies being employed by key players around the globe � keeping in mind that the user interface will play a critical role in deciding who controls this new market. The report also provides forecasts for key VoD market figures for Europe and the United States up to 2015.

�Up until now, the vast majority of pioneer connected TV developments have involved collaboration between the main types of player that are present in the market, primarily in the form of partnerships between the makers of internet-ready devices and content and service providers,� says Sophie Girieud, Project Manager and a senior consultant at IDATE. �But some CE manufacturers could want to break free of these partnerships and take on the business of aggregating and distributing content and services over the TV set. This is what Sony is already doing by distributing its own Qriocity VoD service over its connected devices.�

Connected TV offers and aggregators
The connected TV market players � i.e. CE manufacturers, internet companies, manufacturers of proprietary internet-ready devices, etc. � are combining the different types of service and interface in a variety of ways, which can be classified into five typical positions.

"TV+" positioning: centred around classic broadcast TV, this is typically the positioning adopted by free-to-air broadcasters, through initiatives like YouView in the UK (formerly Canvas) and HbbTV on a Europe-wide scale � the goal being to create a closed live + OTT television universe where the broadcast stream is enhanced by, but not competing with, broadband content off the Net.
"OTT video packages" positioning: these offers generally combine access to premium video services and a �best of� selection of online multimedia entertainment (music, social networking sites, photos, etc.), including a proprietary device that users have to buy or rent. In this segment, national players, such as Roku and Vudu in the United States, are competing with global heavyweight Apple which recently relaunched its Apple TV connected terminal.
The main function offered by "Connected media centre" solutions is the ability to manage all of the content in the home through a media centre since it can be transferred, accessed and consumed on any screen inside the digital home (TV, computer, mobile, etc.), and this in a transparent and streamlined fashion. But these devices are being bundled more and more with a selection of online content and services, as is the case with the TiVo and, more recently, the Sony Media Player N100.
Adopted by Yahoo! Connected TV and Samsung Apps, the "TV app store" positioning seeks to carry the app store model over to the TV set for the distribution of internet services. It usually takes the form of a shop that is accessed over the television offering free and for-pay applications, which is open to developers and content providers and where users go to download the services and applications that interest them.
For players who have adopted a positioning devoted to "Seamless access to all content", the television remains the central entertainment-delivery screen in the home, and is therefore the unified point of access for all digital content, regardless of provenance (broadcast stream, VoD, catch-up TV, Web, etc.). Google TV is a prime example of this strategy.

Project Manager
Sophie GIRIEUD

All the DigiWorld Summit talks and videos are online at: www.digiworldsummit.com

N�534 - Mobile Stores & Applications Stores -

2010-11-08

IDATE just published the first edition of its report �Mobile Platforms & Application Stores�, which indicates that the market of mobile applications will reach 6.9 billion EUR in 2013. The concept of mobile application stores, together with the platform or operating system they run on, has quickly become a pivotal talking point when discussing the current and future mobile landscape. This report provides an in-depth analysis of the types of players involved (device manufacturers, Internet giants, developers and telcos), and their respective strategies and what is at stake for them in this market.

�For the mobile handset manufacturers and the Internet giants, the battle of the fittest is underway, to settle who becomes the dominant smartphone OS, not the largest application store provider. Nokia currently leads, by a significant margin, with RIM, Google and Apple the chasing pack�, comments Soichi Nakajima, senior consultant at IDATE. �Out of these three, only Google is currently in a position to really challenge the dominance of Nokia. Apple is targeting the high-end market, rather than battling for total dominance.�

The real battle is to become the dominant OS
Why is the OS battle so important?
Whilst there are currently at least 10 differing OSs, in the mid- to long term all smartphones will choose from a select few operating systems only, due to mergers and acquisitions between OS vendors. These OSs are not interoperable, meaning that there is a high lock-in effect once a user decides which OS to use. Further, without control of the OS, there is no full control of the application store which runs on top of the OS.
Consider, then, that the smartphone market is currently in its growth phase; it is expected that many of the current �standard� phones will migrate to smartphones over the coming years.
Adding up these two projections means that if a given player can become the dominant OS, then it will be that player�s OS that is deployed as the standard for much of the smartphones to come; potentially billions of smartphones, no matter who the device manufacturer, will be using that given player�s OS, together with all of the revenues associated with that OS.

Nokia leads, and Android (not Apple or RIM) is the main challenger
As of Q2 2010, Nokia (Symbian) led the shares of the smartphone OS market with 41.9%, followed by RIM, Google and Apple with 18.5%, 17.9% and 13.4% respectively. This is, though, only part of the picture. As explained above, current �standard� phones are expected to be replaced by smartphones, and this is where the real opportunity lies, with billions of handsets in prospect. Thus one must look at the current market shares of all phones, and see which OS the vendors support, to get an idea of the potential migration ratio of each smartphone OS.

It is obvious that Nokia is best placed, since they already have 33% share of all phones, and all new smartphones will of course support their own Symbian (or forthcoming MeeGo).
The challenging OS is Android; it has many supporters, including many big players, opening the potential for the Android OS being used when the supporters migrate to smartphones.
On the other hand, RIM and Apple have only themselves to rely on, severely reducing the potential in terms of scale and reach of smartphones employing their OS.

Project Manager
Soichi NAKAJIMA
s.nakajima@idate.org

N�533 - Enqu�te Communes & TIC 2010 -

2010-11-08

L'enqu�te exclusive conduite par l'IDATE, en partenariat avec l'AMF, fournit des indicateurs chiffr�s et repr�sentatifs de la mani�re dont les communes de taille inf�rieure � 100 000 habitants ont investi le champ du num�rique, tant pour leurs usages internes que dans les relations avec leurs administr�s ou dans les diff�rents domaines d'intervention de la politique publique locale.

Pour Anne Causse, Chef de projet de cette enqu�te � les communes sont au c�ur du processus de d�veloppement de la soci�t� de l'information sur leur territoire�. � la fois utilisatrices des nouvelles technologies, cr�atrices de services associ�s � en particulier en mati�re de services administratifs en ligne �, initiatrices d'actions locales en faveur de la d�mocratisation de l'Internet et accompagnatrices de grands projets d'am�nagement num�rique locaux,

� Ainsi, � l'image de n'importe quelle autre organisation, les mairies ont progressivement int�gr� le num�rique dans leur fonctionnement interne. L'informatisation et la connexion � Internet sont aujourd'hui quasi g�n�ralis�es, les services de voix sur IP concernent d�sormais plus d'une mairie sur deux quand la pr�sence de mobiles, plus en retrait, est effective dans un peu plus de 40% d'entre elles. De mani�re g�n�rale, les �quipements et usages TIC en propre sont fortement conditionn�s � un effet taille, lequel p�nalise les plus petites communes rurales, contraintes en terme de ressources � la fois financi�res et humaines.

� La d�mocratisation du Web communal se poursuit, et concerne d�sormais plus de 40% des communes. N�anmoins une grande majorit� des sites municipaux restent strictement informatifs et peinent � �voluer vers des contenus � la fois plus participatifs et davantage orient�s "services". Actuellement, la d�mat�rialisation de l'administration au niveau local se cantonne souvent � l'usage de t�l�proc�dures avec les autres administrations, doubl� pour 11% des mairies par la possibilit� offerte aux administr�s de t�l�charger des documents administratifs en ligne.

� D'un point de vue plus transverse, une forte majorit� des mairies reconna�t le potentiel de contribution des TIC dans les diff�rents champs d'intervention de la vie politique locale. Pour un tiers d'entre elles, cela se traduit par des intentions d'investissements en cons�quence.

N�532 - World Online Advertising Market -

2010-11-09

IDATE has released its latest study, �The World Online Advertising Market.� The report takes a look at the importance of new segments such as mobile advertising, online video advertising and ads on social networking sites, while also covering the more traditional markets of search and display. Complete figures for key countries and regions provide a comprehensive view of the online advertising market through 2014.

�The Internet is still predominantly a below-the-line advertising medium. Search marketing (sponsored links) has accounted for more than half the global online ad market in 2010, or 18.6 billion EUR. Its share is expected to grow to 61% in 2014, for estimated revenues of 52.4 billion EUR. Global display revenues will swell from 13.8 billion EUR in 2010 to 26.9 billion EUR in 2014. Thanks to the development of blind networks and, more importantly, to rich media and video formats, display will continue to control about 32% of the market worldwide,� comments Vincent Bonneau, Director of the Internet Business Unit at IDATE. �Video advertising will be the online ad format with the most growth momentum over the coming years.�

Emerging markets on the rise: the mobile Web, social networks and online video

� Advertising revenues from these three types of service remain nominal, totaling just 6.6 billion EUR in 2010 despite the massive usage of Facebook, YouTube and the AppStore. Earnings generally come from traditional ad formats that have been transposed onto the new services. Custom formats such as overlay, location-based ads and social graph targeting still only account for limited revenues. For the time being, social networks are the largest of the three emerging segments worldwide, and in most individual countries. However, in Japan, Italy and South Korea the mobile Web leads the pack.

� Up significantly since the middle of 2008, spending on Internet video advertising will continue to grow in the years to come. Video advertising will be the most dynamic format in the online ad market, propelled by technical advances in the field combined with the tremendous explosion of online video consumption. Video advertising has become a powerful growth engine for the display market in particular, for it can be beautifully adapted to advertisers� branding concerns. Plus, it allows advertisers to repurpose the commercials they develop for television.

� Online video sites and services will be the first to benefit from this boom. Ad revenues from online video sites will grow at an average annual rate of 54.4%, to capture 13% of the Internet advertising market in 2014 with 11.2 billion EUR. Video will in fact be the largest of the three emerging markets in the US and Europe in 2014, although the mobile Web will dominate globally.

� Bolstered by the growth of smartphones and the mobile Internet, mobile advertising emerged in 2009 (except for in Japan, where it was already a major market). The mobile ad market is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 47.6% worldwide, to represent 12 billion EUR in 2014, or 14% of the global online advertising market. Since revenues from mobile advertising currently come more from display than from search marketing, this segment (like the video segment) is helping limit the decline of the display market. Thanks to location-based services, mobile Web advertising will also benefit from monies shifted from the local advertising market. And the mobile Web will continue to be far and away the top emerging market in Asian countries.

� Despite their mammoth audience, social networks will grow at a less impressive rate, but still faster than the overall market, with an average rate of 25.4% per year. In 2014, social network advertising will capture 6.1% of the global market with 5.2 billion EUR. Not only will this market be weaker than the other two, but it is expected to benefit just a handful of players, whereas many more companies will be sharing the spoils of the boom in the mobile and video markets.

Director of the Internet Business Unit
Vincent Bonneau
v.bonneau@idate.org

For more information please see here

N�531 - FTTx & LTE Worldwide Forecasts -

2010-10-25

The ultra-fast broadband market continues to develop quickly in most regions around the globe, in terms of both subscribers and homes passed.

At the end of 2009, there were close to 40 million FTTH/B subscribers around the world, or 15% more than the year before. Over the next five years, this momentum is likely to translate into a significant increase in the number of homes passed: by the end of 2014, there will be close to 306 million homes passed for FTTH/B, of which more than half will still be located in Asia and 18% in Western Europe.

� On the matter of subscribers, Europe (including Russia) is home to 3.5 million FTTH/B customers, with some countries, such as Russia, Lithuania and Slovakia, boasting a particularly dynamic market. Eastern Europe is in fact expected to have more fibre subscribers than North America starting in 2012.

� Elsewhere, and especially in Asia, marketing the services has become operators� primary concern, since coverage rates have already reached the saturation point in the most advanced markets. HKBN in Hong Kong is the operator marketing the most competitively priced offer of anywhere in the world: access at 100 Mbps for 16 EUR a month.

� In 2014, 18 countries will have deployed optical fibre networks to more than 50% of homes, which is 10 more than at the end of 2009.

We forecast more than 207 million LTE subscribers worldwide by the end of 2014

� LTE services will be launched by late 2011/early 2012 in the EU-5 and China, and before the end of 2010 in the US and Japan. Also factored in are the recent commercial launches in Scandinavia.

� India, meanwhile, which announced 3G and 4G spectrum auctions in April 2010, cannot be ignored if only because of its huge population. But IDATE does not expect to see a significant level of LTE adoption there any time before 2015.

� As depicted in the table below, by the end of 2014, we expect more than 10% of the total subscriber base to be accessing LTE networks � albeit to varying degrees depending on the country. More specifically, LTE subscriber numbers are forecast to increase from 27 million to close to 207 million between 2012 and 2014 (EU-5+Scandinavia, Japan, South Korea, China and the United States).

N�528 - FTTx: busy calendar to the end of the year -

2010-09-27

The ultra-fast broadband market continues to develop quickly in most regions around the globe, in terms of both subscribers and homes passed.

At the upcoming Broadband World Forum, Roland Montagne, Head of IDATE�s Telecom Business Unit, will present the findings of an inventory of FTTH rollouts performed on behalf of FTTH Council Europe. The national FTTx subscriber number rankings will also be unveiled at that time.

At the end of 2009, there were close to 41 million FTTH/B subscribers around the world, or 15% more than the year before. Over the next five years, this momentum is likely to translate into a significant increase in the number of homes passed: by the end of 2014, there will be close to 306 million homes passed for FTTH/B, of which more than half will still be located in Asia and 18% in Western Europe.

� On the matter of subscribers, Europe (including Russia) is home to 3.5 million FTTH/B customers, with some countries, such as Russia, Lithuania and Slovakia, boasting a particularly dynamic market. Eastern Europe is in fact expected to have more fibre subscribers than North America starting in 2012.

� Elsewhere, and especially in Asia, marketing the services has become operators� primary concern, since coverage rates have already reached the saturation point in the most advanced markets. HKBN in Hong Kong is the operator marketing the most competitively priced offer of anywhere in the world: 100 Mbps for 16 EUR a month.

� In 2014, 18 countries will have deployed optical fibre networks to more than 50% of homes, which is 10 more than at the end of 2009.

Key upcoming FTTx events
Come meet our FTTx team at the following events:

� 2010 FTTH Conference
12-16 September 2010, Las Vegas: Keynote by Roland Montagne, Head of the Telecom Business Unit

� Od�bit 2010
20 September Paris: Keynote by Val�rie Chaillou, Senior Consultant

� Conf�rence communaut�s urbaines de France
"R�ussir le tr�s haut d�bit: enjeux pour les m�tropoles fran�aises� (Successful superfast broadband rollouts: the challenges facing French cities)
24 September, Paris: Keynote by Roland Montagne, Head of the Telecom Business Unit

� Broadband World Forum
26-28 October 2010, Paris: Talks by Roland Montagne, Head of the Telecom Business Unit, and Fr�d�ric Pujol, Head of the Mobile & Spectrum Practice

� FTTH Forum 2010
9-10 November, Budapest: Keynote by Roland Montagne, Head of the Telecom Business Unit

� DigiWorld Summit
17 and 18 November 2010, Montpellier: FTTx Seminar

� FTTH Council Middle East Chapter conference
30 November 2010, Beirut, Presentation of the findings of an IDATE market report on FTTH rollouts in the region

N�527 - Video Game App Stores -

2010-09-27

IDATE just published the report �Video Game App Stores�. The App store phenomenon, which is radically altering the way digital content is sold and consumed, has already had a tremendous impact on the video game industry. This report provides readers with an analysis of the main issues at hand for the video game industry, and takes a close look at the app stores themselves.

�Digitisation is making steady inroads into the world of video gaming primarily because of the app stores currently being deployed on all platforms.�, comments Laurent Michaud, head of the Digital Entertainment Practice at IDATE. �Its likely success should see the sale of digital games generate almost two-thirds of the sector's revenues by 2014.�.

Key factors for the success of app stores
Digitising distribution will only be successful for operators if several conditions are met. Apple�s success with its iPod/iTunes, iPhone/App Store and iPad/App Store bundles have largely inspired these conditions.
� Create an ecosystem that is self sufficient: Apple�s success is due to the company�s ability to create a closed ecosystem and impose it on consumers, developers and telephone operators. It does this via a device supported by a virtual store. The entire system for accessing content is standardised, with transparent billing via the operator.
� Open up the catalogue to third-party content providers: app stores must be accessible to the community of developers if they wish to offer a catalogue of content that appeals to the largest possible audience. A virtuous circle can thus be set in motion in which high user levels attract developers, and so on.
� Limit device diversity: Apple�s popularity within the community of developers is partly due to its single device solution (in terms of technical features). This helps developers cut their versioning costs, particularly the high porting costs involved in adapting their games to the 1 200 mobile phone versions in circulation in Europe.
� Offer an attractive business model: Apple, leader of the mobile app stores market, has devised a revenue-sharing model that has now become the norm. 70% of revenues generated by the sale of an application is paid to the developer and the remaining 30% is retained by Apple. Only two mobile players currently offer a more lucrative model for developers: LG and RIM (80%-20%).
� Innovate in terms of features and functionalities: innovation is a decisive factor for capturing audiences. Incorporating new technologies with user-friendly designs has been key to the success of Apple�s and Nintendo�s devices. Apple has given developers a device packed with innovative features (accelerometer, high-capacity multi-touch screen, compass, GPS). This has encouraged the community of developers to create usages based on these capabilities (augmented reality, virtual reality, location-based solutions, innovative gameplay, etc.).
� Form exclusive game partnerships: retailers that have signed exclusivity agreements with publishers find themselves in a temporary position of monopoly. This could also prove highly advantageous for equipment manufacturers, with some game titles actually selling the consoles they are played on.
� Market an accessible development kit: an SDK is a set of tools allowing developers to create applications using proprietary programming languages. In order to avoid creating barriers to entry for developers and risk excluding some developers that might be truly talented, the SDK must be offered at an affordable price.

N�526 - Femtocell -

2010-09-17

IDATE just published the third edition of its report �Femtocells�, which indicates that the market is ready for take off. In 2014, femtocell shipments should represent 23 million units worldwide for a total market of 931 million EUR. The compound annual growth rate for the market volume between 2010 and 2014 will be 159%.

�Following a slow start, the number of operators launching commercial femtocell services is now increasing quite rapidly, particularly in the US, Japan and developed parts of Asia�, comments Frederic Pujol, head of the mobile practice at IDATE.

Mass market beckons
� There are multiple drivers to femtocell adoption, both from the operator and the consumer perspective.
� From the operator�s point of view, femtocells offer a cost-effective means of providing additional coverage and capacity while reducing CAPEX/OPEX and improving retention.
� From the consumer perspective, femtocells offer improved residential cellular coverage, potentially lower in-home call charges and the ability to use one handset both in and out of the home.
� At this early stage in the industry�s development operators are mainly focussing on coverage and capacity problems, though some are now beginning to formulate a range of femto-based services.
� Concepts such as data offload in relation to the femtocell proposition are also steadily gaining ground and it is likely that, once the femtocell market develops further, a range of new femtocell-based business models will emerge.
� In the US and Japan, in particular, the conditions for a competitive market are increasingly falling into place and with them a greater likelihood of mass market adoption.

Project Manager
Fr�deric Pujol
f.pujol@idate.org

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N�525 - TV channels' diversification strategies -

2010-09-20

IDATE analyses within its recent study �TV channels� quadruple-screen strategies� the different strategies to widespread innovating services on the four screens, illustrated by a large body of case studies. Plenty of innovating services are launched every day on the different screens � classic TV, PC, Mobile and connected devices like tablets. This study allows a global overview of the key players� choices in the main audiovisual markets.

�The decisions made by TV channels appear perfectly consistent with current consumer behaviours.�, comments Florence Le Borgne, director of the TV & Digital Content Business Unit at IDATE. �PCs are therefore the main media that TV channels are embracing to maintain the relationship with their audiences. Mobile phones remain a second priority in channels� strategies, while they show little or no interest in the other media devices. This hierarchy between the different media devices reflects the priorities given by the consumers themselves.�

The central role of PCs
Among the alternative media to TV, PCs are undoubtedly the most commonly used by television channels to maintain the relationship with the viewer. Among the main TV channels in mature markets, all have an Internet presence and often provide the more sophisticated content.

Catch-up TV on PC is now widespread on free-to-air channels (only Rai and Fox, among the operators studied, do not offer it). On the other hand, pay-TV operators seem more reluctant to follow this path. Only Canal + and HBO (among the operators surveyed) have developed this type of offer to their subscribers.

Both free-to-air and pay-TV operators have embraced VoD and/or archiving services. Another common feature is the existence of Internet portals integrating multimedia information on programmes and short videos extracted from or complementary of TV broadcasted programmes.

Virtually all the operators surveyed have implemented an offer integrating these three components: dedicated Internet portal, catch-up TV and VoD. Catch-up TV and VoD service access is limited almost exclusively to the country in which the channel is available. Most of the contents on catch-up TV are free or included in the subscription (for pay-TV channels) and are funded by advertising revenue, by the license fee (for some public groups) or from subscriptions. Most often VoD services are available for a fee, for the purchase and/or rental of TV programmes. Portals of TV channels are available without restriction, except for some portals offering longer contents. Some public media groups (such as BBC or RAI) develop additional international portals, distinct from their own national portal.

Casting aside these three "basics of the Web", some trends are beginning to emerge, particularly in connection with the community sphere. Hence, an increasing number of TV channels now manage streams available on video sharing websites. If YouTube cannot be ignored in the implementation of these new services, ITV, on the other hand, has developed a similar service on the Bebo network. Some channels have gone beyond the community rationale by developing their own social network (like RTL with Wer-kennt-wen.de or ProSiebenSat1 with Lokalisten.de or wer-weiss-was.de), their blog platforms (as with Overblog TF1), their non-professional video sharing websites (like maTVid�o - France Television, TuClip.com - Antena 3, Clipfish.de - RTL or WAT - TF1), or by joining virtual worlds (such as M6 and Antena 3 with Habbo Hotel).

Finally, the latest trend being the development of thematic portals, especially dedicated to news, women and sport. These developments are most often based on previously broadcasted content, or rely on the brand of a flagship TV show, topped up with editorial multimedia content. Some websites such as RTL�s Sport.de portal, may also offer live events broadcasts, such as free streaming of Formula 1 races.

Other initiatives targeting PCs are much more scattered and mainly deal with video content delivery: live streaming of part or entire TV shows, broadcasting of live events that have not been scheduled on TV (mainly sports and concerts), or even TV content delivered through the Internet via third-party aggregators or the distribution of original content (mostly from the channel�s own web portal).

Some channels are pushing online games, most often derived from successful programmes, or play a role in activities unrelated to their core business, such as online price comparison services.

Project Manager
Florence Le Borgne
f.leborgne@idate.org

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N�524 - World Video Game Market -

2010-09-16

Video game industry represents 50.4 billion EUR in 2010

IDATE has just published the report �World Video Game Market- Data & forecast 2010-2014� which analyses the global market for hardware & software industry. In a recovering economical environment the game sector is becoming a global phenomenon, dematerialization has enabled the industry to penetrate new markets all around the globe.

�First half of 2010 was marked by the appearance of appearance of new terminals, new accessories, and new functionalities, which pushed the industry towards new gaming experiences by innovations in gameplay�, comments Laurent Michaud, head of the Digital Home Entertainment practice at IDATE.

Sustained growth in video game software
Even though the results for 2009 for traditional video game segments were mixed[1] , several signs show that the industry continues to expand over the internet and that it is being reinvigorated by technological innovations and their integration into new consumer electronics terminals.
Eventually, the video game industry (equipment + software), after minimal growth between 2008 and 2009 (+0.1%), should experience a drop, also minimal, between 2010 and 2011 (-0.01%). This drop is primarily due to hardware segments that are entering a transition phase to a new generation of machines. Beyond that, growth in the sector�s worldwide turnover should again experience significant growth.

When looking only at turnover from software sales, the gaming market continues to grow at a sustained rate due to on-line gaming and mobile phone gaming. Worldwide, it should increase from 38 billion EUR in 2010 to 52.3 billion EUR in 2014.

Project Manager
Laurent Michaud
l.michaud@idate.org

[1] IDATE estimates that the home console gaming software segment of the market lost 7.1% of its value worldwide between 2008 and 2009. The hardware segment lost 12.9%.
Handheld console gaming software market however lost 5.3% of its value and the hardware segment lost 21.6%.

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N�522 - World Telecom Services Market -

2010-08-23

In the latest edition of its half-yearly report �The World Telecom Services Market� IDATE�s experts are analysing the global recovery and impacts on the telecom services market. Yet the recession did not leave telecom services untouched. In many cases it exacerbated the decline of fixed phone service in advanced countries. Mobile services were unable to sustain growth and even recorded a drop in several advanced markets.

�We continue to expect a gradual recovery in 2010, fueled by growth in emerging economies, and a return to growth in 2011 � comments Carole Manero, project manager and senior consultant at IDATE.

Trends by market
The value of the global telecom services market grew just 0.6% in 2009, which was lower than what we anticipated in our previous publication. After the slowdown that began in 2008 (growth was just +3.5%, down 2 points compared to the 2007 rate), the telecommunications services market again stumbled in 2009 with a rate of less than 1%. This was as much the result of a difficult economic situation as of structural adjustments related to the maturity of the sector in a number of segments and regions. It is
easy to see in this positive growth a sort of resistance to the economic outlook, given that other industries experienced major setbacks. Though they were not spared by the crisis, telecom services were still able to capitalize on the subscription concept underlying their business model.
The global market was worth 1,340.3 billion USD in 2008 and 1,348.9 billion USD in 2009 (.0.6% growth). The global market is increasingly dominated by mobile services (55%), whereas in fixed services, there is a strong shift from phone to Internet, and especially broadband.
Growth of revenue from mobile services continues to drop. Down from 11% in 2007, the worldwide growth of the mobile services market fell by two-thirds over two years to just 3% in 2009. This may seem reasonable given that more than half the planet owns a mobile phone and penetration exceeds 80% in most industrialized markets. Yet a comparison with the dynamic growth in devices (+15.5% in 2009) provides a glimpse into the pressure on revenue per subscriber. This is a natural consequence of the massive influx of low-revenue customers from emerging markets. But the pressure is also noticeable in advanced markets, especially in Europe. The number of mobile customers worldwide has reached 4.6 billion (for monthly growth of some 51 million customers!).
With total sales estimated at 737.5 billion USD in 2009, mobile services remain the main driver of overall growth. They have represented more than half of total global revenue from telecom services for four consecutive years (in 2009 their share was 55%) and have accounted for more than twice that of fixed telephony since 2009.
The decline of fixed telephony began in 2002 and again picked up speed in 2009, plummeting 7%, with revenues falling to 348.6 billion USD. This left its share of the total telecommunications services market at just over one-quarter (26%), compared to one-third in 2006 (33%). In three years, fixed telephony lost 14% of its value. The substitution of landlines with mobile phones, coupled with a shift toward IP, is responsible for the drop in the number of fixed lines in use and the sharp decline in average revenue per line.
With revenues of 262.9 billion USD for 2009, other services (Internet and data) continue to gain ground, driven by Internet services in particular. Their share of total telecom services has slowly but steadily grown, by 0.4 to 0.8 points per year since 2006. It reached 19.5% in 2009 compared to 17.5% in 2006 and less than 15% in 2001. In 2009, for the first time, their contribution to growth was unable to offset the loss incurred by fixed telephony with a whopping 26.7 billion USD loss for fixed voice versus a 12.1 billion USD gain for fixed data. Nonetheless, the surge in Internet services, especially broadband, is remarkable. In terms of volume, the number of fixed broadband customers again jumped by some 58.4 million (+14%) in 2009, amounting to 4.9 million new customers per month worldwide. At this pace, we expect the 500 million customer mark to be passed during 2010. At the end of 2009, high-speed accounted for more than three-quarters (77%) of the world�s Internet connections.

Carole Manero
Project Manager
c.manero@idate.org

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N�521 - World Television Market -

2010-08-27

In the latest edition of its half-yearly report �The World Television Market� IDATE estimates that the worldwide television market in 2009 was 259.3 billion EUR, declining 0.5% compared to 2008. In effect, the industry did not escape the consequences of the global economic crisis; the crisis particularly affected television advertising revenue.

�The worldwide television market was, in 2009, primarily affected by the drop in advertising revenue of 7.9%, which could not be compensated for by paid television or public funding�, comments Florence Le Borgne, director of TV & Digital Content Business Unit at IDATE. �These two sources of revenue increased 6.9% and 3.7% respectively.�

Up until 2008, advertising was by far the primary means of funding for the industry, generating about 48% of the sector's revenue, compared to nearly 43% for paid television and 9.4% for public funding. In 2009, the situation reversed itself and paid television accounted for 46% compared to 44% for advertising. In the years to come, IDATE predicts this trend will become more pronounced and estimates that paid television should generate more than 48% of revenue of the worldwide television market by 2014.

Advertising revenue per media

As a result of the global economic crisis, advertising investment for all media combined declined by 11% in 2009. Television, which has been the primary media invested in ahead of newspapers, has see a drop in advertising revenue of nearly 8%. Despite this, the importance of television in the advertising market (all media combined) remained stable at 41.4%.

Newspapers and radio recorded the deepest declines in advertising investment on a worldwide basis, with drops of 17.8% and 10.7% respectively. During the period of 2006-2009, the importance of newspapers in the worldwide advertising market went from nearly 44.7% to 37.4% while that of radio went from 8.9% to 8.4%.
In contrast, the Internet continued to attract increasing amounts of advertising investment, with an increase in spending of 3% for a market share in the worldwide advertising market of nearly 12.8% compared to 7.2% in 2006.

Project Manager
Florence Le Borgne
f.leborgne@idate.org

For more information please follow this link or contact us per email or phone.

N�520 - M2M -

2010-08-17

M2M worldwide market
Worldwide market represents 14 billion EUR in 2010

IDATE just published the report M2M which indicates that this market is growing very fast after the global downturn. In 2010, the cellular market should represent 53 million modules worldwide for a total market of 14 billion EUR (of which 3.3 billion EUR for connectivity). The economy recovery will drive the M2M market with around 25% in value and 40% in volume (cellular modules, 25% for satellite).

�2009 saw the arrival of such consumer electronics as connected e-readers and connected Portable Navigation Devices (PNDs) in the M2M field.�comments Samuel Ropert, senior consultant at IDATE. �Their success obviously drives the M2M market, mostly in volume.�

Rapid growth in M2M market despite downturn
� In volume terms, the overall M2M market is growing very fast in all wireless markets (cellular and satellite) and in all regions. 53 million cellular modules and over 1.2 million satellite M2M modules are expected to have been sold by the end of this year. Overall growth for the next four years should top 33% per year for cellular modules, reaching 165 million in 2014, and exceed 29% for satellite modules. In 2014, M2M SIM cards will probably represent 2.5% of total SIM cards (human and machine) and over 8.1% of total SIM cards in Europe.
� Growth is clearly lower in terms of value, because new applications are generally less demanding in terms of bandwidth and/or of advanced features. In addition, a large share of the growth will come from major deployments by reference players in their respective industry which should benefit from bulk purchasing. The worldwide cellular M2M market represents 14 billion EUR in 2010, with most revenues coming from software and IT services. It should rise by 23% per year to reach 32.5 billion EUR in 2014. The worldwide satellite M2M market is valued at 1.03 billion EUR in 2010 and will grow by 27% per year to reach 2.7 billion EUR in 2014.
� The connectivity market for mobile telcos represents 3.1 billion EUR worldwide for 2010 (over 37% for Europe 27). This market should grow by a little over 24% per year during the next four years.
� The main reasons associated to this dynamic growth in 2010 refer directly to economy recovery and the consumer electronic devices arrival.

Samuel ROPERT
Project Manager
s.ropert@idate.org

N�519 - TV Channels' quadruple screen strategies -

2010-08-13

IDATE has just released the "TV channels� quadruple-screen strategies" report, which draws on a large body of case studies for an in-depth analysis of the key players of the audiovisual industry. This report provides a general overview of the different diversification strategies of TV channels on the four types of screens.

"PC screens are currently favored by both channels and viewers for catch-up TV", says Florence Le Borgne, Director of the TV & Digital Content Business Unit, "and with more than half of all the services offered, the Internet remains the main driver of growth for on-demand video services in Europe.�

The trend in time-shifted content
Among the recent consumption trends, time-shifted content is clearly the most important phenomenon. Solutions to view TV programs at a different moment than their normal broadcasting time are now numerous throughout the range of digital recording devices and catch-up TV or VoD services � both available on the Internet or directly on TV.
As a natural extension of the old VCRs, Digital Video Recorders (DVRs) have come to occupy a central place within the typical household. The penetration rate of DVRs is steadily progressing, largely driven by the policies of pay-TV players, including cable and satellite TV operators, which increasingly include this feature within their set-top boxes. This strategy is motivated by the fact that subscribers equipped with a DVR generate a higher ARPU and lower churn than other subscribers.
In addition, most DVD players now offer digital recording, while consumers can also buy a dedicated terminal such as the TiVo products in the US.
Among the mature TV markets, the United Kingdom has the highest DVR penetration rate, with more than 35% of households equipped by September 2009. At the same period, the US crossed the threshold of 30% of TV households equipped, against 21% in France.

In parallel to this trend, over the last few months on-demand audiovisual media services have multiplied on all the main TV markets. The Internet is the main driver of this growth: in late 2008, it gathered 56.6% of on-demand services available in Europe. In the TV market, IPTV players are the most dynamic in terms of release of new on-demand services, representing 30% of all services available in Europe by late 2008. So far, cable and satellite operators are much less active, while DTT services are currently only present in Britain.
Within the last two years, more than 500 new services of on-demand audiovisual media have emerged on the different European networks; Internet has been the most dynamic medium, with a service offer climbing from 94 services in late 2006 to 394 services in late 2008, more than a fourfold increase in two years.

Although recorded broadcast is still very far from competing with live TV, it is still growing rapidly in both number of users (+22.3% between Q4 2008 and Q4 2009 in the US) and monthly consumption per individual (+28.3% over the same period). In late 2009, the US market thus had 90.8 million consumers of recorded broadcast, each watching an average of nearly 9.15 hours of recorded programs each month (553 minutes) (source: Nielsen - Three Screen Report Q4 2009). In France, while the playing time of live TV was 3.25 hours per person per day in 2009 (source: M�diam�trie - M�diamat - Individuals aged 4 and over), consumption of time-shifted programs barely reached 7 minutes (daily consumption among individuals aged 15 and over, source: M�diam�trie - Global TV Wave 3 - April-May 2009), including 3 minutes of recorded programs (VCR, DVD recorder or PVR), 3 minutes of catch-up TV and 1 minute of stored or burned programs.

Still in France, viewers of catch-up TV topped 10 million over the April-May 2009 period, against four million between October and November 2007, a 160% increase in a year and a half. After the legacy terrestrial channels, DTT channels and thematic TV channels have launched catch-up TV services while the average recovery of older services continues to make progress.

Project Manager
Florence Le Borgne
f.leborgne@idate.org

N�518 - Serious Games -

2010-07-09

Serious Games
A 10 billion euro market in 2015

IDATE has just released its �Serious Games� market report which provides in-depth analysis on the different markets, and their growth outlook up to 2015. The top serious game market players are profiled, along with the sector�s latest trends.

�This report provides readers with a comprehensive portrait of the serious games market through an analysis of its impact on the video game industry�s value chain, and by examining a series of business models,� explains Laurent Michaud, Head of IDATE�s Digital Home Entertainment Unit. �Up until now, serious games have been designed to be played on a computer, but mobile handsets are already much more widely used in emerging economies which makes them the platform of choice for the development of serious games.�

The serious game sector is expected to grow significantly in the medium term. IDATE estimates that it currently generates 1.5 billion EUR in revenue around the globe, and that by 2015 sales will be almost seven times what they are in 2010 � with an average annual growth rate of 47% between 2010 and 2015. Plus, we can expect to see the business world�s interest in serious games increase around 2013, and especially small and medium enterprises (SME) whose awareness of these tools is still rather limited.

An original value chain

The value chain for serious games has fewer links than the classic video game chain. The most common structure is a single player that handles the development, publication, distribution and sales of its games. A great many players actually publish only a single title whose sales and installation/implementation for customers occupy its entire sales and support staff. Low-end instruments are the most widely used development tools in the sector today, as they are the only ones that most developers can afford � with high-end gaming engines costing in excess of 250,000 USD. At this stage in the serious gaming sector�s development, the value chain is more software and service-centric than device-centric. Here, most serious games are designed to be played on a computer, and few have been developed for other platforms. The mobile phone is still the device that currently offers the most interesting alternative to the PC, and it is also the platform of choice for the development of serious games in emerging economies where people can get hold of a mobile much more easily than a computer. Serious gaming software is still more important than any service that might be associated with it. In other words, the most common configuration is a user playing the game alone and usually locally, as opposed to online. But serious games are not meant to replace existing forms of information, communication or training, but rather to flesh them out and enhance them with interactivity, GUI and a video game�s ability to plunge the user into an environment where she will be more receptive to the message being transmitted. Plus the social aspect of a serious game, which fits naturally with a multi-user or even a massively multiplayer approach, will be the prime areas of focus in the coming years, for both the �player� of the game and the professional using it as a tool.

As a result, serious games cannot do away with:

� professional support for the game;
� an associated service (aside from management of the application and its functionalities in software-as-a-service mode) which:
- trains future users of the serious game, whether they are professionals, citizens, consumers or students;
- regularly tailors the application to the situation;
- configures the game, possibly remotely, according to the targeted users, patient, citizen or learner/student;
- collects the results from use of the serious game, interprets them, shares them and injects them back into the gameplay to help the player progress.

Laurent Michaud
Project Leader
l.michaud@idate.org

N�516 - LTE forecasts worldwide -

2010-06-14

IDATE forecasts the rates of LTE adoption in 2012 and 2015. �By �LTE adoption�, we mean the number of subscribers who access the mobile data via the LTE network.� says Fr�d�ric Pujol, Mobile Broadband Practice Director, �As at end 2015, we expect 13% of the subscriber base to be accessing LTE networks with discrepancies depending on countries.�

More specifically, LTE subscribers should grow in the 2012-2015 period from 27 million to close to 300 million at end 2015 (EU5+Scandinavia, Japan, South Korea, China, USA).

� The GSA (Global Suppliers Association) is reporting 110 LTE network commitments in 48 countries at end May 2010. Up to 22 LTE networks should be in service by end 2010 and up to 37 LTE networks should be in service by end 2012.

� We based our estimates on estimated commercial launches of LTE services in 5 distinct regions/countries i.e, the USA, the EU5 plus Scandinavia, Japan, South Korea and China. They all have different backgrounds which affect their adoption of LTE and latest news is mentioned in each sub-sections.

� We think LTE services will not be launched before end 2011-2012 in EU5 and China, and not before end 2010-2011 in the USA, Japan and South Korea. We took into account recent commercial launches in Scandinavia.

� Regarding India which started 3G and BWA spectrum auctions in April 2010, the country cannot be ignored because of its huge population. IDATE expect LTE adoption could be driven by TD-LTE if BWA spectrum can be used for this technology in India.

N�515 - World Telecom Equipment Market -

2010-06-09

Following a productive year in 2008, the telecom equipment market posted a decline worse than anticipated shrinking by 3.6% in infrastructure and by 9.9% in mobile handsets during 2009. In 2010, the global telecom equipment market growth rate is expected to remain stable as operators will still be cautious and wait for a gradual expected return to growth.

� The year 2009 was without a doubt a tough one for the telecom equipment market, as anticipated. With the confirmation of the warnings that began being sent out in the summer of 2008, equipment manufacturers were heavily affected displaying weak or bad performances. In particular, Nortel now under bankruptcy has been the first victim of the gloomy market conditions. Indeed, with the new economic conditions investments schedules were carefully revised. And operators had to establish priorities in network expenses.

� For the first time in 5 years, operators' capital expenditures declined in 2009 by 4.8%. The worldwide investment spending by telecom operators significantly decreased during 2009 totalling to 174 billion EUR. Both fixed and mobile CapEx reduced, by -4.0% and -5.5% respectively. This decrease is a combination of facts with the strong currency (US) devaluations, the gloomy economic context, the end of a five year network infrastructure investment cycle, the weak momentum in broadband access backing and the awaited 3G licence auctions.

� Operators' objectives in terms of very high speed broadband and mobile broadband penetrations will help boost up the telecom equipment market. Given the announcements made by major incumbents to massively deploy FTTx lines in the United Kingdom and USA, the fixed broadband access equipment market will increase gradually over the next two years and accelerate until 2015. In the mobile sector, despite LTE network deployment schedules and 3G/4G licenses awards - long awaited, the mobile access market is expected to hardly grow in 2010.

� In 2010, the global telecom equipment market growth rate is expected to remain stable as operators will still be cautious and wait for a gradual expected return to growth. Basically, operators' expenses will be selective while keeping their investments in IP-based equipment and optical transmission in order to meet the ever-increasing bandwidth requirements of businesses and consumers. Operators' objectives in terms of very high speed broadband and mobile broadband penetrations will help boost up the telecom equipment market. Given the announcements made by major incumbents to massively deploy FTTx lines in the United Kingdom, Brazil and China, the fixed broadband access equipment market will increase gradually over the next two years and accelerate until 2015. In the mobile sector, with LTE network deployment schedules and 3G/4G licenses awards - long awaited, the mobile access market is expected to slightly grow in 2010.

Figures included in the IDATE News (to be downloaded)
> Fixed CapEx: Contribution of each region, 2009 (million EUR)
> 2009 Handset providers market shares - Worldwide
> 2009 Top 10 Network equipment providers in terms of revenues - Worldwide

N�514 - FTTx markets making swift progress -

2010-06-02

There were no major upheavals in the global Ultra Broadband market in the second half of 2009, and it continued to develop steadily in most parts of the world in terms of subscriber numbers and homes passed.

�But beyond these figures that reflect the current situation, there have been several announcements from private operators and governments that have confirmed the interest in very high-speed access in most parts of the world,� says Roland Montagne, Head of IDATE�s Telecom Business Unit.

According to IDATE Senior Consultant, Val�rie Chaillou, �The FTTH market�s growth momentum carried on into the second half of 2009, pushing the global base to close to 41 million FTTH/B subscribers by year-end, which marks a more than 16% increase in six months�(*).

Over the next five years, this momentum is likely to translate into a significant increase in the number of homes passed: by the end of 2014, there will be close to 306 million homes passed for FTTH/B around the globe, of which more than half will still be located in Asia and 18% in Western Europe.

� On the matter of subscribers, Eastern Europe, which has already pulled ahead of Western Europe, with 3.5 million FTTH/B customers, compared to around 2 million in the west, is forecast to have an even bigger subscriber base than North America starting in 2012. Some countries in that part of the world, such as Lithuania, have a particularly dynamic market and, in addition to swift and vast rollouts, are managing to persuade the eligible households to subscribe to ultra high-speed access offers.

� Elsewhere, and especially in Asia, marketing the services has become operators� primary concern, since coverage rates have already reached the saturation point in the most advanced markets. HKBN in Hong Kong is the operator marketing the most competitively priced offer of anywhere in the world: 1 Gbps for 26 USD a month.

� In 2014, 18 countries will have deployed optical fibre networks to more than 50% of homes, which is 10 more than at the end of 2009.

__________
* FTTx subscriber numbers increase to 63 million when we include the following technologies: FTTH/B, VDSL, FTTLA, FTTx+LAN.

Top 10 countries in terms of FTTH/B subscribers, end of 2009

Rank # Country = FTTH/B Subscribers
1 # Japan = 17 140 000
2 # South Korea = 9 228 300
3 # USA = 5 700 000
4 # Russia = 3 040 000
5 # Taiwan = 1 675 000
6 # Hong Kong = 770 000
7 # China(1) = 710 000
8 # Sweden = 537 100
9 # Italy = 325 000
10#France = 308 200
________
(1) Not included are the roughly 17 million FTTx +LAN subscribers in China.
Source: IDATE

Top 10 FTTx operators around the world at the end of 2009 (in number of subscribers)

Rank # Operator / Main technology & architecture = FTTx Subscribers
1 # NTT (Japan) / FTTH/B GEPON = 12 779 000
2 # China Telecom(1) / FTTH - FTTx+LAN EPON LAN/DSL = 11 160 000
3 # China Netcom(2) / FTTH - FTTx+LAN EPON LAN/DSL = 5 590 000
4 # KT (South Korea) / FTTB EPON/GEPON = 4 630 000
5 # Verizon (USA) / FTTH BPON/GPON = 3 430 000
6 # SK Broadband (South Korea) / FTTB/LAN GEPON = 3 032 099
7 # ER Telecom (Russia) / FTTB = 2 140 000
8 # AT&T (USA) / FTTN VDSL2 = 2 100 000
9 # Chunghwa Telecom (Taiwan) / FTTB GEPON = 1 639 824
10# LG Powercom (South Korea) / FTTH/B EPON/GEPON = 1 566 206
______________
(1) of which 560,000 FTTH subscribers and 10.6 million FTTx/LAN subscribers.
(2) of which 90,000 FTTH subscribers and 5.6 million FTTx/LAN subscribers.
Source: IDATE

N�513 - Mobile Network Saturation -

2010-05-20

The mobile data market is taking off at last. The significant growth in mobile data traffic has been made possible by the combination of advanced technological and marketing enablers, with most of them reaching "satisfactory" status levels. 3G coverage has really expanded. The massive adoption of smartphones (including the iPhone) partly explains part this growth. These devices have recently improved and are customized to facilitate mobile data and especially video and social networking services. Dedicated tariff plans are also making headway. Application stores which were in the spotlight in 2009 provide easy ways to access additional content and software on mobiles.

�However�, says Fr�d�ric Pujol, Mobile Broadband Head of Practice at IDATE, �related mobile data traffic has triggered congestion�. Network congestion leads to dropped calls and interruptions to Internet access. Certain sources reported MNOs congestion problems in urban dense areas late 2009. Frustrated or dissatisfied customers may thus choose to churn, thus threatening MNOs profitability.

To cope with congestion problems, mobile operators have to combine several solutions depending on the characteristics of their networks and the costs incurred. They also need to revise their strategies and consider this issue globally from technical, marketing and strategic standpoints. Among the technical options available, acceleration of 4G/LTE deployment is currently the favoured solution when compared to WiMax. However, we estimate it will not be widely available before 2013. Offloading data traffic to Wi-Fi networks is likely in the meantime as it is cost effective and can be accomplished almost immediately. In addition, new pricing schemes are required in the coming months. They should be based on customer usage.

�Given traffic assumptions based on average per user consumption and estimated capacity�, says Carole Manero, Project leader of the report, �we estimate that, on the whole, MNOs will be able to support the growth in mobile data traffic�. Congestion problems may however arise in dense areas and at peak hours. MNOs that decided to postpone network investments in 2008-2009 because of the global downturn will also have to speed up networks improvements to address congestion issues.

N�512B - IDATE initiatives on the Web -

2010-05-11

To mark the release of the 10th edition of its DigiWorld Yearbook, IDATE is offering an update of its online initiatives. �The various communication tools that are so easy to access on the Web are enabling us to really streamline communication on our various consulting operations, the market reports we�re publishing and the work we are doing to promote international discussions on the economic and strategic issues surrounding information technologies,� says IDATE CEO, Yves Gassot.

DigiWorld Yearbook available for eBook, the iPhone and the iPad

This 10th anniversary edition provides us with an opportunity to offer the work in various versions. Alongside the print edition that is available in English and French, several digital versions of the report � which were created thanks to the savoir faire of digital publishing specialist, Aquafadas (www.aquafadas.com) � are now available as well: an ebook version that provides dynamic access and can be read on a computer and certain ebook readers, along with dedicated iPhone and iPad versions.

> www.digiworld.org : complete information on the dedicated DigiWorld Yearbook 2010 website

The yearbook and its different versions can be ordered online from the dedicated website, from the IDATE website or from the Apple App Store, at the following prices: Print edition: �29.90, incl. VAT � eBook & iPad: �24.90, incl. VAT - iPhone: �14.90, incl. VAT

Find all the latest IDATE news online

IDATE�s online presence has expanded into new arenas, offering users a variety of access points to meet their needs:
� The general site that provides information on all IDATE activities: www.idate.org
� The site dedicated to promoting and marketing the reports published by IDATE analysts and consultants: www.idate-research.com
� The site dedicated to IDATE�s annual conference: www.digiworldsummit.com
� The site dedicated to the Communications & Strategies economic journal: www.comstrat.org
� The IDATE blog, offering expert analyses of the latest ICT industry news: www.idate.fr/blog
� And those who want to keep closer track of IDATE and DigiWorld Summit activities can find us on Facebook, Linkedin and Twitter.

N�512 - IDATE releases the 10th edition of its Yearbook -

2010-05-11

IDATE has released the 10th edition of its DigiWorld Yearbook which provides readers with a detailed snapshot of the state of the digital world. It includes the best of the past year�s analyses from IDATE experts who monitor developments in telecom, Internet and media markets around the globe year-round, along with reference data and a look at the innovations worth watching�

The first official launch party took place on 12 May 2010 in Paris and will be followed by launch parties in London and Brussels.

__________________________________________________________________________________

The DigiWorld Yearbook is published in English, French and Spanish (in partnership with the Enter foundation), and a series launch ceremonies for the report will be taking place across Europe: in Paris, London, Brussels and Madrid. The release of this 10th anniversary edition, will also be marked by the launch of a dedicated website for the DigiWorld Yearbook which will be available this year for the first time in eBook, iPhone and iPad-compatible versions

www.digiworld.org

__________________________________________________________________________________

�There is no denying that figures for DigiWorld markets in 2009 are rather grim,� says Didier Pouillot, the manager of the DigiWorld Yearbook project, �as they posted a record-breaking 1.5% drop in sales�. Only one of the six segments that make up this sector enjoyed slight growth, namely telecom services which increased by 1.8% � although this can be attributed chiefly to the ongoing growth of emerging markets, whereas the vast majority of mature markets suffered a significant decline. On the whole, hardware segments have been harder hit than services.

It is nevertheless worth pointing out that DigiWorld markets have weathered the economic downturn better than many other sectors: although these markets progressed at the same pace as the economy as a whole (global GDP also shrank by 1.6%), this actually marks an improvement from the several years when the markets had been performing worse than global GDP. Especially noteworthy is the fact the rise in connections and consumption has been ongoing, despite (and in some cases because of) the fact that both businesses and consumers have been tightening their belts. So 2009 was yet another spectacular year in terms of mobile subscriber growth, with 550 million new customers signing on, and even a record year for broadband, with a user base that grew by 66 million subscribers worldwide.

These developments, which have been taking hold year after year, have ultimately gone a long way in shaping the digital world. This 10th edition of the DigiWorld Yearbook provides an opportunity to take a look back at a decade of tremendous change, which has included:

� a global mobile user base that has increased tenfold, going from 477 million at the end of 1999 to close to 4.5 billion at the end of 2009;

� the creation and widespread deployment of broadband, which was only just nascent ten years ago and now boasts a base of over 450 million households around the globe;

� the switch from virtually all analogue TV broadcasting in the late 1990s to now close to 50% of TV households having gone digital.

Consumption has of course increased in kind, and in an especially spectacular way when it comes to the Net. VoIP, which was still fledgling at the start of the century, is almost a commonplace in many industrialised countries, and IPTV is rapidly gaining ground. As to the new market players, we have witnessed the meteoric rise of companies like Google, Amazon and Facebook. Google has quite simply become one of the most highly valued ICT companies while Facebook, which didn�t even exist 10 years ago, now boasts over 400 million users.

In his introduction to the Yearbook, IDATE CEO, Yves Gassot, admits that 2009 does not appear to have been the stage for any stand-out events as the headlines were dominated by the markets� vulnerability or, on the contrary, ability to weather the recession. The iPhone 3G and Android OS had been rolled out in 2008 and we had to wait until� 2010 in Europe to see a 3D film become a global smash, and for the launch of the iPad and the first Google phone.

Gassot nevertheless points to three trends in 2009 that will have a particularly sizeable influence on the months ahead and underscores the fact that, despite the recession, digital industries have continued to thrive and innovate:

1. the first congestion problems on mobile networks due to the growing use of smartphones, dongles and netbooks. At year-end, data accounted for the majority of traffic travelling over cellular networks. This marks the onset of a profound change in the economic equation for mobile operators, of their taking the measure of investments needed to deploy 4G-LTE, but also of a changing Internet of new applications and transformations in many markets (print media, publishing, healthcare, etc.);

2. the growing use of video is one of the main elements driving the rise in online traffic (accounting for 40% to 60%, depending on the estimates), which has at least three consequences. It makes questions over connected televisions all the more pressing, and adds another dimension to Net neutrality debates. Contrary to the commonly held belief, traffic differentiation is already a widespread practice among CDN market players and on the infrastructure deployed by the leading content aggregators. Lastly is the observation, especially in Europe, of the difficulties being had in implementing cohesive, large-scale superfast broadband rollout plans that meet the imperatives of fair competition while also encouraging operators to invest and take initiative. The end result is that the European model for organising the telecom sector is coming into question.

3. The third trend is the growing weight of social networking sites in the time that users spend online, in their changing communication habits and in the sites� prescriptive powers with a business model that is increasingly dominated by platform strategies (e.g. hosting video games and other applications from outside providers). One of the main issues is determining the extent to which Facebook, which in 2009 alone went from 130 to 350 million registered users, will take on the status of the Web�s main marketplace and of Google and Apple�s main rival.

In his foreword to the Yearbook, IDATE President, Francis Lorentz, speaks of the options that public authorities will be facing as the economic situation improves, which will provide Europe with an opportunity to focus its attention on a collective approach to a few key matters. In particular, he suggests:
1) strengthening financial and regulatory schemes in support of seedlings which have the greatest chance of conquering new technological and economic frontiers,
2) stepping up changes in universities which must act as the hubs of technology clusters and innovation policies,
3) being actively involved in deploying the Internet of the future by supporting two or three priority projects that are in the public interest, in areas such as e-health and smart grids.

N�511 - Social Networking tools -

2010-05-07

Social networking tools for improving the user experience on free TV/video sites

In late April, WAT.tv, the video site operated by French TV broadcaster TF1, rolled out an upgrade that included sharing, recommendation, rating and Facebook streaming tools.

"Thanks to these new features, Wat has expanded the social dimension of its service and is offering users a richer and more engaging experience by capitalizing on the popularity of the globe�s biggest social network (more than 400 million members),� says IDATE senior consultant, S. Girieud, while pointing out that, �this partnership with Facebook should help attract and keep new users and/or generate more traffic on the online video platform, and so help boost the ad-based monetization of its inventory�.

The data portability solutions developed by the top social networking sites (Facebook Connect, MySpace Data Availability and Sign-in-with-Twitter) allow free online TV and video services, such as TV networks� websites, VoD services, video websites, etc., to incorporate tools from the most popular social networks (e.g. Facebook Live Feed, Twitter feed, etc.), which will help build and keep users and generate more traffic, and so improve their ad revenue potential. Incorporating the core tools from the most popular social networking sites allows free online TV and video services to offer a richer user experience and so to build its audience (increase the number of users and traffic, time spent on the site, page views, etc.), and so to improve its ad space sales.

By integrating a major social network�s most popular tools (Facebook�s Live Feed, Twitter�s tweets), free online TV/video services such as TV channel Web sites, VOD services and video sharing platforms can offer their users a richer viewing experience. Better experiences in turn help create and retain audience and/or additional traffic (more visits and visitors, more time spent, more page views) and thereby generate more ad revenue from a site�s inventory. This is also a way for sites to continue to develop their services, to innovate and to fulfill their users� potential desire for interactive and community features. Social tools are seeing more and more demand from Web users and are gradually moving from �nice to have� features to �can�t live without� necessities.

IDATE has published a report, Social Video, addressing these questions, presenting key figures for the social networking and online video markets and describing the major innovations spawned by the meeting of social networks and video. The challenges and strategies of the players on the field are detailed in case studies. For more information click here

Project Leader
Sophie Girieud
s.girieud@idate.org

N�510 - Ultra-Broadband via Satellite -

2010-04-29

Ultra-broadband via Satellite
Is satellite indispensible to the supply for end-user access?

After having had a mixed reception in the early 2000s, two-way Internet access via satellite has been enjoying a revival for the past two years or so � especially in North America, Asia and now in Europe as well. Government programmes for reducing the digital divide, along with the gradual migration to ultra high-speed solutions are allowing satellite technology to play an ever-increasing role in the landscape.

"IDATE estimates that between 2010 and 2014, the number of broadband satellite subscribers in Europe and North Africa will increase by 45% annually, to reach 610,000 subscribers in 2014 compared to close to 138,000 at the end of 2010," says Project Manager, Maxime Baudry.

Main trends in ultra high-speed access via satellite
� With the growing number of programmes in Europe aimed at reducing the digital divide, satellite needs to capitalize on its assets to be among the potential technological solutions.
� Attracting even greater focus than the digital divide in Europe is the race to deploy ultra high-speed access.
� In the battle with terrestrial technologies, and particularly wireless ones (3G and LTE), satellite technology needs to leverage its assets � the main one being immediate availability at a reasonable cost.
� IDATE believes that ultra-fast broadband via satellite is a market that is poised to grow a tremendous rate in the coming years, not only because of programmes devoted to reducing the digital divide but also the efforts to deploy ultra high-speed solutions, as satellite will have an advantage in rural areas over LTE and FTTx which would not be cost effective solutions.
� While the Ka band is developing in Europe, and elsewhere around the globe, the future of ultra high-speed access via satellite could develop in even higher frequency bands that would enable speeds of over 100 Mbps by 2020.
What is the real market outlook for satellite technology when competing with terrestrial technologies, both wireline and wireless? What positioning strategies hold the greatest potential for satellite access providers, given the features of the broadband market in the different geographical areas being targeted? What future satellite technologies are currently in the works?

IDATE�s market report devoted to ultra-broadband via satellite provides the answers to these questions, among others, and supplies up-to-date figures on both the satellite and competing markets.

Project Manager
Maxime Baudry
m.baudry@idate.org

N�509 - Digiworld Yearbook 2010 -

2010-05-11

The public launch ceremony for the latest edition of our annual report:

DIGIWORLD YEARBOOK 2010
The digital world's challenges, as viewed by IDATE experts

will take place:

- in London on Thursday, June 17th 2010 from 6:00pm to 8:00pm
The presentation of the report, offered to the attendees and their guests, will be followed by a round-table : "Who is financing the Internet of the Future?"
with:
. Steve Durbin, Livingston Consulting (Chair)
. Katja Benyon, Principal, Strategy, Ofcom
. Mike Corkerry, Executive Director, EMEA Regulatory Affairs, AT&T
. Steve Jordan, Head of European Regulatory Policy, O2 Telefonica
. Anna Mallett, Controler Business Strategy, BBC
. Scott A. Puopollo, Vice President, Global Head, Service Provider, Internet Business Solutions Group, Cisco.

- in Bruxelles, on Monday, 21 June 2010 from 6:30 to 8:00pm
The presentation of the report, offered to the attendees and their guests, will be followed by a round-table : "Who is financing the Internet of the Future?"
with:
. Detlev Eckert, Senior Advisor to the Director General in the DG Information Society and Media, European Commission
. Gabrielle Gauthey, Directrice des Relations Institutionnelles, Alcatel-Lucent
. Vianney Hennes, Senior Vice President, European and International Regulation France Telecom - Orange
. Dr. Jan Krancke, VP Regulatory Strategy and Economics, Deutsche Telekom
. Dr. Bruno Soria, Regulatory Services Director, Telefonica

- in Paris on 11 May from 6 to 8 pm at the Intercontinental Hotel, 2 rue Scribe, 75009 Paris (upon invitation only)
The presentation will be followed by a special keynote from our guest of honour, St�phane Richard, CEO, France Telecom - Orange.

N�508 - TV 2010 -

2010-04-07

World Television Market
The World Television Market in 2009 represent a total amount of 268.9 billion EUR, declining 1.2% compared to 2008.

IDATE provides regular analyses of the world television markets' main trends - technologies, revenues and services. On the occasion of the MIP TV in Cannes, France (12-16 April 2010) IDATE have teamed up to publish an exclusive edition of its special white paper: �TV 2010 -Markets & Trends� taken from several IDATE market reports.

The worldwide television market was, in 2009, primarily affected by the decline in advertising revenue of 9.2%, which could not be compensated for by paid television or public funding; these two sources of revenue increased 7.2% and 3.5% respectively. Up until 2008, advertising was by far the primary means of funding for the industry, generating about 50% of the sector's revenue, compared to 40% for paid television and 10% for public funding. In 2009, the weight of advertising and subscriptions each accounted for about 45% of the sector�s revenue. By 2010, revenue from paid television should exceed overall advertising revenue worldwide, reaching a ratio of approximately 47%/44% by 2013.

Pay TV as new driving force in broadcast revenues has to evolve

Despite the fact that it is weathering the economic crisis rather well, pay TV will need to evolve in the short term as a result of a host of factors, mostly related to technology, competition and consumption patterns.

High-definition (HD) TV, which is currently a short-term source of differentiation and increased ARPU for pay-TV operators, will soon be relegated to the everyday as DTT becomes the norm. Although 3D could reinvigorate innovation-based competition among pay-TV services over the longer term, a number of obstacles still need to be overcome before this technology can take off.
Faced with competition from more multichannel free-to-air offerings on DTT and the success of video-sharing platforms, pay channels must work even harder to offer value-added programming and services to build subscriber loyalty and attract new customers. Theme channels have the weakest business models and therefore are the most threatened.
As video consumption becomes increasingly independent of a TV schedule, pay-TV operators are gradually implementing solutions to meet viewers� need for flexibility and personalization. These services act as additional sources of revenue for these operators.
The predicted development of mobile TV is also expected to impact the sector, though for the time being mobile TV/video is still far from being a leading mobile service�users consider it more as a "nice-to-have" than a "must-have." Regular, sustainable patterns for mobile viewing remain to be established; they are currently limited to occasional use by a small percentage of savvier consumers.

Television 2020 � The Web Migration

All the conditions for the television industry�s migration to the Internet are now in place:
� consumers are comfortable with online visual consumption;
� technical solutions that give users access to Internet content on their television sets have been implemented;
� open Internet access is possible from mobile telephones;
� premium content is available on the Web;
� online video quality of service is improving;
� new players from industries related to the television industry have aligned their strategies.

While this migration will be gradual, it will have a deep-seated impact on the industry:
� the exclusive rights model will no longer be the standard;
� some consumers will abandon traditional managed networks;
� a globalization trend will be sparked, to the benefit of the major rights holders.

Unlike the music and print media industries, the TV industry is gaining a strong position on the Web. As a result, television is poised to play a central role in video services. This offensive strategy will likely pay off down the line, but does not entirely eliminate the possibility of destroying value. There are structural reasons for this, including a fiercely competitive online advertising market and a lack of control over program circulation.
Far from being simply transitory, the 2009-2010 economic downturn marks the beginning of a decade of restructuring for the TV industry. This new period will begin with an overall decline in the sector�s resources before increasingly varied consumption patterns spur a new period of growth. The decade running from 2010 to 2020 will also be a period that focuses on cost control, with the industrialization of TV production that will depart once and for all from its historical model, i.e., film. This migration to the Web poses a threat to the European industry in particular.

A reassessment of the television industry�s regulatory strategy appears both necessary and urgent, and will involve the creation of integrated pan-European conglomerates.

Please feel free to download this news as pdf file and also our White Paper TV 2010.

Jeremy George
Sales Department TV & Digital Content

N�507 - Telecom pricing -

2010-03-30

Analysing and comparing telecom prices is both a complex and sensitive subject, involving many and varied parameters. To help better our understanding of these parameters and the impact they have on pricing, IDATE has produced a detailed report on the leading fixed broadband access and mobile service providers� pricing schemes in the major European markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK) and in the United States, drawing on an exclusive database compiled by IDATE.

Mobiles
Market positioning and pricing
As for the range of prices charged for mobile services, we observe significant differences between the various markets:
� in the UK, Germany and France, a wide range of solutions is available, targeting a variety of users,
� the selection is more narrow in Italy, while Spain is somewhere between these two extremes,
� finally, in the United States, high volume offers are widely available and have a very concrete impact on the price of light and average consumption baskets.
The terms that apply to on-net/off-net and peak/off-peak calling hours for mobile users are still very distinct, even though the growing shift to flat rates is tempering this to some degree. Mobile data service prices, meanwhile, still vary a great deal, both in terms of the volume included and the way they are capped (in some cases �playing� on access speed).

Sales and billing methods
The main terms and conditions attached to operators� offers, which are just as varied as prices, include:
� purchasing options: in a shop vs. online, packaged offers versus SIM card only,
� minimum contract lengths: minimum contract length for post-paid offers, validity periods for prepaid cards,
� fixed or minimum costs: subscriptions and minimum monthly contract length, prepaid card top up,
� billing principles for voice calls: how call time is measured, differentiation by call destination, peak/off-peak calling distinction,
� billing principles for text messages: differentiation by destination number, according to the type and size of the message, peak/off-peak calling distinction,
� billing principles for mobile Internet use: how consumption is measured (by volume, time, per-connection).

Mobile pricing benchmark (analysis by consumption basket)
We have calculated the price of baskets for different consumption profiles, based on post-paid offers. British operators appear to market the most affordable offers in all cases. German and Spanish carriers, meanwhile, while offering average prices for light users, are regularly among the most expensive for mid-range and heavy users. French and Italian telcos are situated between these two extremes, although we find much greater variations in price in Italy. And, finally, in the United States offers appear to be particularly expensive for light consumers, but become steadily more affordable for heavier users.

Broadband access
Market positioning and pricing
When it comes to fixed broadband access services, American telcos appear to market a greater selection of standalone access solutions that their European counterparts who are more focused on bundled offers, no doubt to some extent because of the difference in how the telephony and TV markets and market competition are structured on either side of the Atlantic.
In terms of pricing, the gradual shift to ultra-fast broadband is generally taking place without a marked increase in price over classic broadband offers. In some countries, and particularly France for most operators, prices are actually identical.

Sales and billing methods
For fixed broadband access offers, the various options are built chiefly around:
� point of purchase: in a shop or online;
� terms governing handset rental/purchasing and its amortisation, replacement, return, etc.;
� minimum contract lengths;
� how access is billed: according to access speed, depending on other services in the bundle, etc.;
� billing principles for voice calls: how call time is measured, peak/off-peak calling distinction, differentiation by call destination;
� how TV services are billed.
The report includes a comparison of all of the different options in the different schemes, drawing on examples from the database.

Broadband access pricing benchmark (analysis by consumption basket)
For broadband prices, it is German, French and British telcos that often offer the lowest prices, while prices in Spain and Italy are usually among the highest. Meanwhile, aside from broadband only offers running at up to 8 Mbps, American carriers systematically charge the most of any of the operators examined here.

______________________
Telecom pricing � broadband and mobile market benchmark (Market & Data, March 2010)
� The purpose of this report is, first, to offer details and a comparison of the main features of the pricing systems applied these services in terms of market positioning (breadth of range, access speed) � drawing on the rate plans offered by the leading operators (generally the top four in each category) in six countries: Germany, Spain, France, Italy, the UK and the United States, which corresponds to more than 500 offers for the 42 vendors analyzed.
� Second, we have performed a detailed analysis of the �technical� components of these pricing plans, in other words of all of the parameters used in the pricing schemes, from the terms of subscription to contract length, by way of all of the methods used to calculate time or volume, depending on the case.
� Five mobile services and three broadband access consumption baskets have been defined. For each basket, which have measured the lowest price offered by each operator then provided the results for each country with three benchmarks: the lowest point, which indicates the price charged by the operator with the cheapest offer, all operators combined; the high point, which indicates the price charged by the operator with the most expensive offer (but the least expensive one for the operator in question for the profile being examined) and, finally, an intermediate point that corresponds to the weighted average (based on market share) of the prices charged by the three or four operators selected for that country.
� Finally, we have established pricing tables according to the different baskets. Unlike other benchmarking exercises that are generally carried out on this topic, we have endeavoured to take the utmost account, especially for services that are billed based on time (chiefly mobile calling), of the breakdown of calls that include adjustment coefficients according to time credits and billing tiers, and to provide more detailed points of reference than just an average price or the lowest price for a given country.
� A database of prices, in the form of an Excel file, backs up our analyses and forms an integral part of this report.

N�506 - eBooks -

2010-03-23

A l�occasion du Salon du Livre de Paris 2010, l�IDATE, cabinet de conseil et d��tudes sp�cialis� dans les t�l�communications, l�Internet et les m�dias, pr�sentera les conclusions d�une �tude commandit�e par le Minist�re de la Culture et de la Communication sur les principaux march�s �trangers du livre num�rique, c�est � dire le Japon, les Etats-Unis et le Canada.

Le march� du livre num�rique japonais est le plus ancien et le plus d�velopp� au monde � l�heure actuelle. Il p�se 3% du march� total de l��dition en 2009 et se caract�rise par la lecture sur le t�l�phone mobile, principalement de mangas. Faute de contenus attractifs disponibles en version num�rique, les perspectives de croissance interne sont limit�es ; les �diteurs pr�f�rant valoriser leur catalogue sur les march�s �trangers.

Aux Etats-Unis, le march� du livre num�rique ne comptait en 2008 que pour 0.5% du march� total de l��dition mais les ventes d�ebook devraient conna�tre une croissance � trois chiffres en 2009. Le march� am�ricain est le plus concurrentiel de la plan�te tant au niveau des catalogues de titres disponibles que des terminaux d�di�s (e-readers) et non d�di�s (smartphones, tablettes, consoles de jeux). Redessin� par les luttes d�influence entre les �diteurs, Amazon, Google et Apple, le march� devrait rapidement devenir le plus important au monde en valeur.

Quant au Canada, le march� du livre num�rique est encore faible en valeur et reproduit les clivages linguistiques : l�offre anglophone est � la tra�ne des Etats-Unis tandis que l�offre francophone se structure autour d�un entrep�t num�rique unique comptant plus de 2.500 titres et accessible � tous les �diteurs et libraires.

L�intervention au Salon du Livre pr�sentera pour chaque pays les principales caract�ristiques du march� (forces en pr�sence, cha�ne de valeur), les modalit�s de r�partition de la valeur ainsi que les perspectives de croissance.

Au second trimestre 2010, l�IDATE publiera une �tude globale sur les march�s du livre num�rique majeurs en Am�rique du Nord, Europe et Asie. L��tude dressera l�inventaire des strat�gies, mod�les �conomiques, politiques tarifaires et co�ts induits des principaux acteurs du livre num�rique. L��tude s�accompagnera d�une base de donn�es des ventes d��uvres num�riques et des terminaux de lecture d�di�s (e-readers) pour la p�riode 2009-2013.

L�intervention des consultants de l�IDATE se d�roulera le lundi 29 mars 2010 � 12H00 salle Julien Gracq, situ�e sur le stand du Centre National du Livre. (Stand N86).

> Vous pouvez d�s � pr�sent prendre rendez-vous avec les consultants de l�IDATE pour un entretien individuel en contactant :

Vincent Bonneau, responsable de la Business Unit Internet

ou

Marc Leiba, consultant livre num�rique et presse en ligne

N�505 - Social Video -

2010-04-08

Not only have social networks emerged as new distribution and promotion channels for video content, but they also provide innovative social solutions for TV channels and online video sites. This makes them powerful, crucial partners for the entertainment industry at a time when the media and the Web are increasingly social.

Social networking and watching videos online are now everyday practices on the Web, just like search, e-mail and browsing. These activities have given rise to new Web titans that are increasingly interrelated.

Today we are seeing social networks and TV and video companies coming together to create innovative solutions for broadcast and online video content:

� Connected television sets are making social networking sites available directly on the small screen, in the form of widgets. Social TV, the ideal combination of TV programs and social networking, gives channels a way to capitalize on their program lineup and enhance the TV viewing experience.

� Data portability solutions developed by the leading social networking sites (Facebook Connect, MySpace Data Availability, Sign in with Twitter) make it possible for free online TV and video services such as a TV channel�s Web site, a VOD service or a community video platform, to integrate popular tools from those communities (Facebook�s Live Feed, Twitter tweets). This helps create and retain new audiences and/or additional traffic, thereby generating more ad revenue.

� More and more people are viewing and sharing video content on social networking sites. For the entire range of TV and video services, from traditional channels to YouTube to Hulu, social networks have the makings of a new social and viral channel for promoting and distributing content, allowing them expand their reach. But in order for these players to profit from the dissemination of their content across the social Web, they need to use an appropriate advertising strategy.

� Content recommendations are becoming increasingly important for pay-VOD players, which could boost the relevance�and as a result, the effectiveness�of their suggestions by using the social graph as a filter. Consumers would receive video recommendations from contacts in their social networks, since these people are especially reliable sources of information whose recommendations they trust. However, any use of the social graph must respect users� privacy and keep personal data confidential.

Social networks have a lot to gain economically by working with the TV and video industry. These alliances can not only help them boost advertising revenue but also provide them new sources of income as purveyors of community-based solutions.

What challenges and strategies will these converging players take on, and what will be the economic impact of Social Video in the coming years?

IDATE has published a report addressing these questions, presenting key figures for the social networking and online video markets and describing the major innovations spawned by the meeting of social networks and video. The challenges and strategies of the players on the field are detailed in case studies.

Project Leader
Sophie Girieud
s.girieud@idate.org

N�503 - World Mobile Equipment Market -

2010-02-15

The global equipment market represented a total 284 billion euros in 2009, and IDATE predicts an increase of 1.5% for 2010.

As expected, 2009 was a tough year for the telecom equipment market. With the first warning signs of a slowdown in summer 2008, equipment manufacturers were the hardest hit by the recession. The difficulties encountered by the telecom equipment market were due especially to telcos� reduced spending that was slashed even further as the economy tanked. Dipping more than expected, especially after years of growth, the market is expected to shrink by 2% in 2009.

The mobile phone market has been deeply affected by the global economic crisis that began in 2008. With strong pressure on sales, the mobile handset market has gone from double-digit growth in 2002 to negative growth (-4%) in 2009. In terms of volume, the number of handsets sold dropped by 6% in 2009, down to 1.12 billion units, on the heels of +6% growth in 2008, which was nevertheless below initial predictions. The overall downturn that is currently affecting the cellular market is expected to continue and constrict growth in 2010 (+2.5% YoY).

Operators have been selective in their spending on network infrastructure, confining their investments to IP-based and optical transmission equipment, to be able to satisfy their residential and business customers� ever-increasing bandwidth requirements. Mobile equipment sales have come under strong pressure, although vendors do see certain regions, especially the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, as future growth areas once 3G auctions have wrapped up. Mobile equipment in fact continues to dominate telecom industry spending around the globe.

The wireline infrastructure market was down again in 2009, and carriers� transition to NGA networks � and particularly to FTTx infrastructure � was not enough in the grim economic climate to offset the decline of DSL equipment sales (-15% decrease in DSL port shipments in 2009).

On the flipside, the current economy has stepped up demand for services, such as managed solutions, that provide increased efficiency. Carriers� cost-cutting measures have translated into weakened control over their networks which, in 2009, meant a real upswing in infrastructure outsourcing deals and a growing number of operators turning to infrastructure sharing.

Changes in the equipment market landscape

The gap between vendors' performance widened in 2009, a year that served chiefly to expose their struggles. Nortel was the first victim, and its bankruptcy reshuffled the landscape as the company auctioned off its business, piece by piece. Virtually all infrastructure suppliers have been affected by the downturn, and the market is now populated by five heavyweights, including Ericsson which has managed to strengthen its position by taking over some of Nortel�s assets and expanding its foothold in the North American market.

Meanwhile, some of the smaller manufacturers, such as Motorola, have really felt the squeeze � their lack of critical mass making it hard to withstand intensified price wars. Mega mergers have also resulted in underperforming revenue growth, with both Alcatel-Lucent and Nokia-Siemens posting negative revenue growth for two years running.

Chinese manufacturers continued to enjoy a healthy growth momentum, albeit at a lesser pace than in the five past years. Huawei, which had being boasting a 40% growth rate, is expected to report a 20% increase in income in 2009, which still puts it near the top of the ranks, alongside ZTE.

Nokia remained the top handset manufacturer, with a 36% market share in 2009. However, with sales in emerging markets slowing because of the downturn, pressure from the competition is increasing. The two major Korean, manufacturers Samsung and LG, consolidated their positions and moved into second and third spot in the global rankings � having increased their market share over 2008 through their commitment to high-end and innovative devices. Meanwhile, Motorola continued its struggled to overcome certain difficulties, while Chinese equipment manufacturer ZTE increased its market share, rising through the ranks to become the globe�s 6th largest handset maker.

N�502 - Inventory of FTTH in Europe & Middle East -

2010-02-24

In 2009, growth in terms of subscribers and Homes/Buildings passed has accelerated in Europe, with respectively 19% and 29% rate between June and December 2009. In EU36 (including Russia), there were nearly 3.5 million FTTH/B subscribers and more than 25 million Homes/Buildings Passed.

Because of its specific demographic characteristics, Russia is the heaviest country in terms of subscribers and Homes/Buildings Passed even if the FTTH/B market is still in its infancy in the country. The potential of the Russian market is huge and might convince new players to get involved in FTTH/B deployments in the near future.

In the Middle East (14 countries covered), UAE are the main FTTH/B market, totalling more than 1 million Homes/Buildings Passed and nearly 63,000 subscribers. In other countries, FTTH/B deployments are very limited, and even municipalities, which initiated most of the FTTH/B projects in Europe, do not seem to get highly involved in deployments.

_____
Even with new deployments in Eastern and Southern Europe, more mature countries still dominate the global European FTTH/B market. In countries such as Sweden, rollouts are still engaged even if on a smaller scale. The main issue now is really to convince end users to subscribe to services based on FTTH/B networks. At end 2009, 18 European countries are in the Global Ranking, which is the proof that commercial effort is on-going, but still has to be enhanced.

Regarding Middle East, the FTTH/B market is still in its infancy. Several announcements have been made but have to be concretised. Contrary to Northern Europe, where first deployments were engaged by municipalities and/or power companies, rollouts in Middle East will more probably be initiated by incumbents and private players, among which Real Estate Owners which will rapidly find a high interest in Fiber as value-added for their new housing programs.

European FTTH/B market at end 2009

As in previous years, IDATE has been commissioned by the FTTH Council Europe to provide an overview of the status of FTTH rollouts across Europe at the end of 2009. To date, IDATE has identified 249 FTTH/B projects in Europe, of which 136 are new initiatives since June 2005.

Municipalities and utilities are still the main category of players involved in FTTH/B deployments in Europe as they represent 55.7% of total number of projects. Nevertheless, they are still giving ground to alternative players which, even if they only represent 28.7% of total number of projects, reach 74% of FTTH/B Homes/Buildings Passed.

In terms of subscribers, alternative operators still dominate the market. Those which were involved first in FTTH/B deployments represent the most important customer base: all together, FastWeb (Italy), B2 (Sweden), Illiad/Free, Numericable & SFR (France), Orange Slovensko (Slovakia) and T2 (Slovenia) at the end of 2009 totalled 841,500 subscribers, or around 24% of Europe�s FTTH/B subscriber base (including Russia). However, this figure is lower than a year ago. This is mainly due to the involvement of incumbents which have been deploying largely in 2009 after months (and sometimes years) of expectation for regulation clarification.

� New FTTH/B markets, mainly in Eastern Europe, are very dynamic. Countries such as Lithuania, Estonia and Czech Republic are among the most dynamic in terms of new FTTH/B subscribers during second half 2009.

� Sweden, third country in terms of number of new subscribers between June and December 2009, is still a very dynamic market where local and national players continue to convince end users to subscribe to services based on FTTH/B architecture. On the other hand, the coverage is still increasing, and the consequence it a lower penetration rate in the country compared to end 2008.

� At end 2009, 4 countries have entered the Global Ranking, meaning that more than 1% of households have subscribed to a FTTH/B service: France, Czech Republic, Portugal and Bulgaria.

� The majority of subscribers (around 67% of FTTH/B subscribers at end 2009) is concentrated in 7 countries in Western and Northern Europe: Sweden, Italy, France, Norway, The Netherlands, Denmark and Germany

Excluding Russia, which leads the FTTH/B market in terms of subscribers and Homes/Buildings Passed due to its specific demography, France is still ahead of all other European countries at the end of 2009. But other countries have shown a strong growth and are now positioned among the 10 leaders in terms of number of Homes/Buildings Passed. This is the case for Portugal, Bulgaria and Lithuania which are respectively n� 4, 5 and 6 at end 2009.

Scandinavian countries, and notably Sweden and Norway, still lead the way in Europe in terms of penetration rate with 41.4% and 64.9%, respectively. However, those rates have slightly decreased between end 2008 and end 2009: this signifies that deployments are still engaged and that the coverage, even in those advanced countries, has not reached maturity yet.

Regarding technology deployed, Ethernet is still the first choice of players and represents 84% of total FTTH/B rollouts at end 2009.

The main change during 2009 concerns the architecture deployed as at end 2009, FTTB represents 58% of rollouts compared to 47% a year ago. This is further proof of the fact that players often opt for FTTB to avoid the issues involved in installing fibre on private properties, and especially MDUs (negotiation with landlords).

Middle East FTTH/B market at end 2009

As part of its inventory, IDATE also examined the status of FTTH in Middle East at the end of 2009. With the exception of UAE, there have been very few FTTH/B deployments in Middle East up until now. Some players have announced and/or have begun FTTH/B rollouts in major cities, but coverage and take-up levels are not yet significant.

The key driver for FTTH/B deployments in the region is massive new housing programs. Alternative operators are more involved in FTTH/B deployments than other categories of players, however, incumbents are dominating the market as they represent more than 60% of FTTH/B Homes/Buildings Passed at end 2009.

N�501 - World Mobile Market -

2010-02-11

IDATE provides regular analyses of the central trends shaping mobile markets around the globe � networks, devices and services. To mark the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona (15-18 February 2010), IDATE is publishing the fourth edition of its special white paper: �Mobile 2010 � Markets & Trends�, which draws on several IDATE market reports.

After a marked decline in 2008 � to +3.8%, or two points less than in 2007 � growth in the telecom services market dropped significantly once again in 2009. After generating revenue of 1,417 billion USD in 2008, sales are expected to reach 1,441 billion USD in 2009, in other words an increase of only 1.7%: the lowest growth rate since 2002.

�This decline is due to structural phenomena, i.e. the maturity of the markets that have driven growth in the past, namely mobile telephony in industrialised countries, combined with competitive and regulatory pressures whose impact has been further aggravated by the economic downturn�, says Carole Manero, Project leader of the �World Telecom Services market� report.

Although based solidly on business models tied to subscriptions and technologies that users in industrialised nations consider essential, the telecom services market is not likely to emerge unscathed from the recession. It does nevertheless have some very strong assets that will help put it back on track, including the fact that consumption volumes continue to rise apace with the growing user base. In fixed markets, the growing Internet services market is no longer fully offsetting the decline in fixed line calling, added to which the growth rate for mobile services revenue continues to shrink � decreasing by two-thirds between 2007 and 2009.

Mobile services nevertheless remain the chief driving force

With total sales estimated at 755 billion USD in 2008 and at 785 billion USD in 2009, mobile services nevertheless remain the chief driving force behind growth as a whole. They have accounted for more than half of all telecom services revenue worldwide for four years running (representing an estimated 55% in 2009), and generate more than twice as much income as landline calling. The mobile market�s growth is being sustained by a massive rise in customer numbers which grew by 14% worldwide in 2009: up to 4.5 billion (or by more than 46 million customers a month!), whereas the market�s value has been declining year after year.

Fixed telephony continues its decline which began in 2002, and at an ever increasing pace. In 2009, the number of fixed lines shrank again, and average revenue per line has decreased by around 2% annually for the past two years. Fixed telephony has decreased in value by 11% in three years and, at the end of 2009, it accounted for only 26% of the telecom services market worldwide, compared to around 33% in 2006.

Generating an estimated 275 billion USD in 2009, data and especially Internet services continue to increase their weight in the equation, which has risen slowly but steadily: by 0.5 to 0.7 points annually since 2006. Their share of the total market reached 19% in 2009, up from 17% in 2006 and less than 15% in 2001, although their contribution to growth is no longer offsetting the decline in fixed telephony revenue: 19.3 billion USD in losses for fixed voice, compared to 14.1 billion USD in gains for fixed data services. Excluding Internet, the data services market remained unchanged in Europe and North America in 2008 compared to 2007, and is thought to have suffered a decline in 2009.

The growth of Internet and data services revenue has been spurred by the remarkable rise of the Internet, and especially of broadband access. In terms of volume, the number of broadband subscribers grew by close to 63.3 million, which translates into 5.3 million new subscribers a month worldwide. At this pace, we predict that the 500 million mark will be reached some time in 2010. At the end of 2009, broadband access accounted for three quarters of all Internet connections around the globe.

LTE: the right answer?

IDATE predicts that, by 2015, a total of 380 million subscribers in the US, the EU-5, Scandinavia, China, Japan and South Korea will have access to mobile data services over LTE networks.

� The cost of an LTE rollout for an MNO operating both GSM and UMTS/HSDPA networks amounts to 2.1 billion EUR to cover the urban and suburban population. This figure applies to a nation of 50 million inhabitants with the population density/distribution properties of a Western European country.

� Innovative services and business models, such as VoLTE which can bring benefits to both operators and subscribers, need to be deployed if operators are to maximise the potential of LTE deployments, maintain ARPU levels and continue to be a smart pipe.

N�500 - DigiWorld Programme 2010 -

2010-02-02

On January 28th, the companies that support the DigiWorld Programme will be meeting in Paris to decide on the mission statement for 2010. The purpose of the DigiWorld Programme is to provide an independent European forum for promoting discussions and analysis of the digital industry and economy, through a wide range of initiatives.

The DigiWorld Programme includes a varied and complementary series of activities and events: Club meetings, Policy Programme, publication of the DigiWorld Yearbook, the Communications & Strategies journal, international fact-finding missions, seminars, conferences...

We can already announce one addition to the programme: the launch of a monthly Club meeting in London

IDATE has taken the initiative to begin a Club in London that operates similarly to the one in Paris, i.e. a monthly meeting over breakfast of representatives of some the ICT sector�s most prominent players. As they are in Paris, London Club meetings are private (for members only). On the agenda for the first two meetings: the challenges posed by LTE, and Net neutrality.

> DigiWorld Programme presentation

N�499 - Digital Home -

2010-02-11

Connected devices will constitute a market of 149 billion EUR in 2013 in Europe, Japan & USA

ISPs are no longer the only service providers supplying access to the Internet. Mobile operators also provide connection to the Web thanks to third-generation access which is now widely available: in France, for instance, over 70% of the population is covered for 3G.

Although generally acquired when away from home, content is usually consumed in the convenience and comfort of the home.So bringing content into the digital home is no longer a problem, as connected devices meet consumers� needs and behaviour patterns. The problem that consumers do face is how to transfer the content between the devices that make up the digital home in a fast, easy and intuitive way. IDATE believes that no single view of the digital home will prevail monumentally over the others, and that each has its own advantages and drawbacks. The market share captured by each configuration will ultimately evolve according to the progress made by the solutions involved, and as consumers become more savvy. We have therefore distinguished the following stages of market development:

� market opens up via solutions that combine devices, service offerings and proprietary content (�silos� scenario)

� the parallel development of technical solutions that improve interoperability inside the home, either thanks to interoperable devices (�seamless� scenario) or through a central multimedia server (�home servers� scenario);

� the gradual rise of services and content integrated into the devices (�store� scenario);

� the eventual switch to online solutions ("Home-in-the-cloud" scenario).

Progress made in home networks
The biggest issue that currently faces the smooth circulation of content within the home is the amount of bandwidth available indoors. Thanks to ADSL and optical fibre access, bringing content into the home is no longer a problem. Connectivity between the devices is making strides thanks to three technologies that are now widely available: Wi-Fi, cables and powerline carrier systems, all of which continue to make progress.

� To overcome bandwidth problems, American firm Zeevee markets a solution based on the use of coaxial cables that make it possible to distribute content at high speeds to all rooms in the house that are equipped with these cables.

� Several consortia are promoting very high-speed wireless solutions, including Wi-Fi Direct, providing direct connection between devices, independent of the router; the WiGig Alliance, offering Wi-Fi connection in the 60 GHz band, and the WHDI (wireless high-definition video interface) alliance.

DNLA Connectivity
Moving content around within a complex environment made up of disparate devices, all of which have different purposes (storage, control, viewing, listening, etc.) remains a complicated affair. To remedy the outstanding issues, a number of consortia have been formed over the past few years, their purpose being to establish norms and standards for the communication process between devices to make them directly interoperable ("plug and connect"). A prime example is the DLNA, or Digital Living Network Association.

N�498 - World Television Market 2010 -

2010-01-25

"Industry did not escape the consequences of the global economic crisis; the crisis particularly affected television advertising revenue. Nevertheless, IDATE predicts that the market will exceed its 2008 level in 2010", comments Florence Le Borgne, project leader of this report.

� The United States remains the largest television market in the world with turnover of   more than 100 billion EUR in 2009, declining 2% in a year. The importance of the   North American region in the worldwide market is trending downward, going from 39% in   2006 to 38.7% in 2009; it should continue to lose a few tenths of percent in the   years to come.

� The second largest regional market, Europe had a turnover of 82 billion EUR in 2009,   a decrease of 2.4% compared to 2008. The importance of the European market in the   worldwide market also showed slow erosion, going from 31.7% in 2006 to 30.5% in 2009.   The United Kingdom, Germany and France attracted the most market growth and between   them account for 44% of the region�s revenues.

� Asia/Pacific recorded growth in its TV market on the order of 0.3%. Its market share   grew by 0.3 points and regained its 2007 level, at 20.8%. The heavyweights in the   region, Japan, India and China experienced varied results. As a mature market, Japan   showed a decrease of more than 5% while the Chinese and Indian emerging markets grew   6.2% and 9.5% respectively.

� Latin America displayed the greatest growth in its TV market, with an increase of   nearly 5%. Its market share in the worldwide market is still small (7.9%), but it is   growing consistently (6% in 2006). Brazil is the largest market in Latin American TV   and alone makes up more than 45% of the market.

� The smallest regional market, Africa/Middle East declined by more than 6%. Its market   share has stagnated at 2.1%.

The worldwide television market was, in 2009, primarily affected by the decline in advertising revenue of 9.2%, which could not be compensated for by paid television or public funding; these two sources of revenue increased 7.2% and 3.5% respectively. Up until 2008, advertising was by far the primary means of funding for the industry, generating about 50% of the sector's revenue, compared to 40% for paid television and 10% for public funding. In 2009, the weight of advertising and subscriptions each accounted for about 45% of the sector�s revenue. By 2010, revenue from paid television should exceed overall advertising revenue worldwide, reaching a ratio of approximately 47%/44% by 2013.

Florence LE BORGNE
Head of TV & Digital Content Business Unit at IDATE

N�497 - Happy New Year! -

2010-01-04

In 2010, Understanding the Digital World

N�496 - World Video Game Market -

2009-12-29

In the latest edition of its report �The World Video Game market�, it appears this market continues to report promising results, even in this bleak economy � and even enjoyed record-breaking video game and console sales at Christmastime in 2008. Hardware sales (home and handheld consoles) totalled 14.7 billion EUR in 2008, while software sales (PC, home and handheld console, mobile phone and online) totalled 36.6 billion EUR.

According to Laurent Michaud, head of the Digital Entertainment Practice, �the sector will continue to enjoy solid earnings, albeit with some nuances depending on the market segment. In 2010-2012, the hardware sector will experience a downturn in sales as households reach optimum equipment levels, with growth picking up again starting in 2013 thanks to the launch of new gen consoles. The increased revenue generated by software sales will not be enough to offset losses up to 2012�.

By late 2009, home console games could account for 30% of the sector�s revenue. It should nevertheless be pointed out that this segment is expected to have flat growth at best in 2009, due to a combination of reduced household budgets, a selection of games that has not lived up to gamers� expectations, and competition from other platforms. This percentage is expected to drop to 24% between now and 2013, notably due to the growth of online gaming which is expected to be generating more revenue than home console games in five years� time. More significant still, games on handheld devices, including phones and consoles, could become the largest segment, generating 15 billion EUR in revenue in 2013, on the eve of the launch of the next generation of home consoles.

Industry trends: a constant state of renewal
For the video game sector, 2008 and 2009 were marked by a resurgence in competition which is now livelier than ever. It extends to all platforms, all networks and all genres. But is that not a sign that this industry is in good shape?

The video game sector is attracting a host of newcomers and is regularly held up as an example, notably for its ability to adapt to the challenges of the digital era.
� It is the only digital entertainment sector to have successfully negotiated the switch to digital distribution and the digital revolution, even if a certain degree of resistance remains.
� Sales continue to rise steadily, despite the impact of certain cyclical effects, notably the drop in console sales in the latter part of their lifecycle.

The sector is being shaped by several events which will mark 2008-2009 as a turning point in its development.

1. Digital distribution is continues to make strides. It is making its way to all platforms and becoming increasingly popular with consumers. Everybody appears to have accepted digital distribution as inexorable, from developers to retailers, by way of game publishers � and it started with gamers themselves.

2. With the ecosystem it has structured around the iPhone and its app store, Apple is transforming portable platform games. The American firm has adopted a business model that challenges console makers� brick-and-mortar models.

3. Online gaming will be the most dynamic segment between now and 2013. It will continue to develop thanks to Internet-ready TV sets, to the growing array of gaming offers, the cohabitation of business models which is stimulating competition and to a number of aggressive pricing strategies, ranging from Free-To-Play to Premium subscription.

4. The sector is opening up to new forms of gaming, sometimes going beyond the game. Casual gaming � which requires no learning curve, offering short games in what is sometimes a very basic graphic environment � has the potential to open the doors to a mass market. Serious gaming, which involves taking gaming technologies to other sectors, will find applications in all sectors of the economy, starting with healthcare, defence, training, emergency services, tourism, etc.

5. Video games are at the heart of the communal and social Web, and will be one of the driving forces of the intelligent Web. The integration of data mining techniques into online gaming services will help create predictive models for games by building an individual, behaviour-based player profiles.

6. Video games will benefit from the technological developments made by networks. The deployment of optical fibre will give a boost to steaming games which require neither machine nor game, or even a gaming platform, only a device to interact with such as a TV.

N�495 - 3D Web -

2009-12-28

This report explores the technological and economic environment of the 3D Web, from the partial use of 3D to fully three-dimensional universes. It identifies the services that are key to enabling the migration to 3D: e-commerce, mapping, serious gaming� and offers a close-up look at virtual worlds, using original business models for buying virtual goods, and at augmented reality, the next central 3D application on mobile devices.

� The first 3D success stories on the Web, i.e. real-time 3D, have naturally been applications for which 3D offers a true added advantage through immersion and/or simulation.
3D is generally located at the dedicated software client or classic Web browser level. Among the major immersive services, video games have played a key role in pioneering 3D technologies that could then be applied to other segments. The massively multiplayer online game (MMOG) segment is the biggest user of very advanced 3D solutions such as World of Warcraft. Online gaming alone generates 7.7 billion EUR worldwide. Another major immersive 3D market is virtual worlds where users interact with one another: 23 million Internet users are actively involved in virtual worlds. 3D also boasts the assets to create simulations which applications like serious games, virtual tours and, to a lesser degree, e-commerce, have all adopted.

� The 3D Web, especially in the realm of virtual worlds and Free2Play games, is central to the Internet�s future development, not only because of the technological features it brings, but especially because of the business models being created for immersive services.
Unlike with other Web services, whether organic (event planning) or display, advertising is a secondary source of income, with the vast majority of revenue earned by online games still coming from pay-to-play subscriptions. Virtual worlds that resemble MMOG use the sale of virtual goods via micro-payment as their prime source of income � a market that is already worth over 2 billion USD. This business model has also caught on with the top social networking sites, whereas 3D simulation services, such as e-learning, are still using classic means of generating revenue (licences, product sales�).

� Although there are still some obstacles to overcome (tax system for virtual worlds, network and computer performance�), the main impediment to the 3D Web�s development remains the creation of content, which requires specific skills and still represents a colossal expenditure.
Although some services can re-use 3D content offline, as is the case with video games, most players need to develop the content entirely themselves and encourage their end users to create 3D content. Things become even more complicated when we move to mobile platforms. Aside from highly immersive ones, most 3D Web solutions will initially offer just a touch of 3D (object, avatar) on a Web page, or in augmented reality applications on mobile � which could be on its way to becoming the next mobile killer app.

Definition
The 3D Web includes all of the interactive 3D content incorporated into webpages. This means that it is viewed by the Web browser and not using independent software that needs to be downloaded (such as Google Earth). We will only be exploring real-time 3D, and not pre-calculated 3D representations that can be displayed without offering the ability to interact with them � and so largely akin to video. The concept of 3D is by no means a new one, the first forays having been made by the Web 3D consortium back in 1994. The 3D Web is naturally being promoted by the industries that use it, both online and off, and which are working to offer the same technologies on the Internet.
The main initiatives are therefore coming from the same industries that use 3D offline:
- for digital content creation (DCC), chiefly in video games and special effects;
- heavy industry and vendors that employ CAD for designing and simulating objects before building physical prototypes.

Segmentation
The concept associated with Web 3D can take a number of forms depending on:
- the degree of immersion: 3D can be used to create a complete representation of an entire environment (like in a virtual world), or involve only a few elements on a webpage (object, avatar, etc.);
- the degree of sophistication: some solutions use true 3D which can be very intricate (subdivided into a great many polygons) as well as 360� navigation, whereas others offer only 2.5D, i.e. isometric 3D.

N�494 - In-Game Advertising -

2009-11-13

Advertising spending has been cut for all media, except the Internet. According to Laurent Michaud, Project Leader for the In-Game Advertising report: �Video games continue to be underestimated by advertisers who are reticent about this unfamiliar sector, but we expect to see this trend of under-investment start to disappear by 2010-2011�.

In-game advertising, or IGA, is a fast-growing market that is expected to increase from 716 million euros globally in 2009 to 1.4 billion euros in 2013 � which means average annual growth of 18.5% during that period. This report, which provides a detailed view of how the market is structured and the strategies being employed by the players, sheds new light on the market�s promising outlook, its inherent challenges and the medium-term growth levers.

Several phenomena are coming together and helping to spur the market�s swift development:

� Advertising spending on video games is catching up. Long held in low regard by most advertisers since it targeted a small niche of consumers, video games are now spreading to the general public.

� The work performed by specialised ad agencies to persuade advertisers and marketing agencies will have an effect in the short term.

� Dynamic in-game advertising offers still largely untapped possibilities in tracking the impact of advertising, real-time profiling of target markets, refreshing ads in real time, etc.

� The viability of CPM measurement tools is crucial to the development of in-game advertising. Even if low-level software standardisation is not yet on the table, everyone agrees that the results of IAB initiatives are promising.

� The top video game publishers are aware that they can earn substantial revenue from in-game ads.

� Massively multiplayer online gaming and games on social networks are the most dynamic advertising segments for games. Despite how diverse this segment is, gamers seem to be less averse to ads than previous generations, provided that they mesh with gameplay as seamlessly as possible.

� Making digital entertainment devices Internet-ready is key to the success of in-game advertising. At the end of 2009, between 70% and 75% of home console owners � or more than 100 million households � are connecting their machine to the Web. IDATE estimates that this figure could increase to over 225 million by 2013.

� 2009 is the year that television entered the era of the Internet, of instant interactivity and graphically enhanced interfaces. The internet-ready TV will host on-demand video game services that will open up an additional advertising window on the small screen, which is an ideal platform for commercials.

N�493 - Next Gen TV -

2009-11-12

In its latest market report, IDATE delivers its analysis of the issues tied to the proliferation of innovations that allow viewers to watch TV programmes on the Web, based on a detailed benchmark of the offers being rolled out by players devoted to innovative TV solutions: offers, features, distribution, content, prices and consumption. An operational profile provides a synthesis of the key innovations in terms of content, services, software and devices.

Innovation in the area of TV services is part of a long-term trend of the convergence of classic television and the Internet, which is being shaped by the following developments:

� in terms of consumption:
- increase in time-shifted viewing and more personalised content consumption
- portability of the content
- consumption that combines broadcast, personal and Web content

� in terms of access:
- growing number of image distribution solutions and network ubiquity
- growing role of the device as the place where content is aggregated

� in terms of financing:
- fragmentation of ad revenue
- free offers that undermine financing for pay-TV programmes.

These developments are dismantling TV�s traditional value chain, and especially content distribution: the growing complexity of the technical distribution of content is stimulating the emergence of new intermediaries, providers of technical solutions (STBs, software). In some cases, these intermediaries play a central role in the commercial distribution process.

The conclusions reached by these comparisons allow us to obtain a precise analytical grid of innovation in the realm of TV services, which helps sketch out the future shape of television services:

N�492 - Radio Spectrum -

2009-11-09

At a time of explosive growth for mobile broadband and the progressive deployment of 4G networks starting next year, new frequency bands are being made available. Digital dividend spectrum was already awarded last year in the US, and is progressively being harmonised in Western Europe. In the meantime, the refarming of the 900 MHz band creates an opportunity for mobile broadband to be made available in rural areas.

This latest IDATE report focuses on three main topics: Digital Dividend, spectrum refarming and 4G Spectrum.

Digital Dividend
� The Digital Dividend represents a unique opportunity to facilitate the dissemination of mobile broadband in Western Europe. The 800 MHz band (790-862 MHz) freed up in Europe for mobile communications has a very high value for mobile operators. The takeoff of mobile broadband adds value to this new spectrum.
� Analogue TV switch-off has already happened in the US and is progressively taking place in Europe with a switch-off to be completed by the end of 2015.
� The status of the Digital Dividend in Western European countries is getting clearer as most European countries have already allocated, or shall do so soon, the 800 MHz band (790-862 MHz) to mobile services. The regulatory framework is getting clearer and the technical conditions have been established by the CEPT.
� Harmonisation throughout Europe is likely to be reached and this adds even more value to the 800 MHz band. Most mobile operators are planning to use LTE in FDD mode in this band.
� USA took the lead and auctioned the second part of its own digital dividend early in 2008. The 700 MHz auctions in the USA were a real success even though the D block was not allocated. The reserve price ($10 billion) was largely exceeded and the winning bids reached US$ 18.9 billion. This confirms the great interest which the UHF band has for those mobile operators who are going to deploy LTE.

Spectrum refarming
� The use of the 900 MHz band by 3G or 4G technologies represents a short-term opportunity to facilitate mobile broadband coverage of rural areas.
� Regulatory hurdles have been lifted in Europe as the GSM Directive was repealed in mid-2009.
� The potential benefits for operators are the possibility to provide extended coverage for 3G as well as reduced CAPEX and OPEX.
� Spectrum refarming can be considered as a trend in Western Europe and is coherent with the wish of NRAs to offer broadband access in rural areas but could be slowed down in many countries due to the distribution and fragmentation of the 900 MHz spectrum between the main players.
� The refarmed 900 MHz band will be mainly used by 3G technologies but some operators are considering using the 900 MHz band for LTE (in Sweden, for instance).
� 900 MHz refarming has already begun in Finland and is planned in many other countries.

4G spectrum
� The continuous and exponential growth of data traffic on mobile networks will increase the need for new spectrum.
� LTE is going to dominate the 4G field; our projections show that there will be more than 350 million LTE subscribers at the end of 2015. LTE commercial growth is expected to start in 2011 in the USA and in Japan and from 2012 on in Western Europe.
� LTE needs larger bandwidth (typically 10 and 20 MHz) to deliver all its benefits in terms of large data rate and spectrum efficiency.
� 4G mobile networks will use various combinations of frequency bands in the different regions of the world. In the USA, LTE is first going to be implemented in the 700 MHz band.
� We expect the 2.6 GHz and 800 MHz bands to be the most widely used in Western Europe for 4G deployments. The 900 MHz band will be subject to refarming and spectrum arrangements between operators.
� 2.6 GHz status in Europe: no harmonisation in terms of FDD/TDD distribution is expected. This could slow down the availability of terminals and increase their cost.
� In the long term, the 3.5 GHz band will become available for mobile applications and could be used in the cities to provide very high data rates. Technical compatibility between fixed and mobile networks and competition issues could prove to be a problem though.
� The S-Band was allocated in May 2009 by the European Commission to Inmarsat and Solaris. It could be used as a complement to terrestrial mobile networks but the regulatory conditions still have to be clarified.
� The 2.6 GHz and 800 MHz bands will be auctioned in the years to come in Western Europe. We expect prices for the 2.6 GHz spectrum to be in the � 0.02-� 0.5 per MHz per pop and for the 800 MHz spectrum in the � 0.1-� 1 per MHz per pop range.
� TDD spectrum is less attractive to operators than FDD spectrum as shown by its valuation in Sweden and by the lack of interest in Hong Kong.

N�491 - Hybrid Networks -

2009-11-10

In its latest report on Hybrid Networks, Maxime Baudry, Project Leader, says that �hybrid satellite/mobile networks are networks that enable the deployment of a range of services � the most promising being those tied to the mobile Internet and to mobile TV�. Actually the context appears quite positive:

� After the spectrum allocations in the United States a few years back, the EU awarded two pan-European licences in the S-band this year: one to operator Solaris Mobile, which is the fruit of a joint venture between Eutelsat and SES Global � two of the globe�s four major satellite operators � and one to Inmarsat, another industry heavyweight;

� Via the launch of hybrid services, satellite operators hope to capitalise on the telecommunications sector�s future growth markets, and to position themselves as a key complement to terrestrial network players, and even as competitors when possible.

Satellite operators preparing for the exponential growth of the mobile Internet�
Around the world, and especially in developed countries, the fact that users are replacing their existing handsets with smartphones, i.e. high end phones that enable access to multimedia mobile services, is helping to spur mobile Internet take-up. According to Cisco, a smartphone generates more IP traffic than 30 standard mobile phones, while a PC card generates more traffic than 450 standard cellular phones.

The emergence of flat rates, coupled with the expanded coverage of mobile networks and new mobile devices that deliver outstanding performance levels, does appear to point to a stunning degree of growth for the mobile Internet in the coming years.

Moreover, in some parts of the world where a robust terrestrial broadband infrastructure is lacking, notably Eastern Europe, appear to be banking on these new technologies to catch up, as revealed by the substantial development of 3G/3.5G via USB keys integrated into PCs.

�and mobile TV
In Europe, mobile TV was launched in Italy in 2006 just before the World Cup in Germany. In the same vein, Austria and Switzerland, which were the host countries for the European Football Championships in 2008, rolled out their offers just before the event began.

� In Italy, Switzerland and the Netherlands, mobile TV services have been launched at mobile telephony operators� initiative. The rate of coverage for the services therefore depends on the operator�s network, while the packages on offer and prices charge vary from operator to operator. Customers do have to pay for the services, which are generally composed of a basic offer that can be upgraded to a premium package that includes specialty channels, adult programming, sports (game highlights, weekly programmes, live matches) and on-demand content. Depending on the type of programme, pricing will be per-day, per-week or per month.

� In Austria, the regulator awarded a broadcast mobile television licence to French network operator TDF�s Hungarian subsidiary, Media Broadcast, which then established agreements with mobile operators Orange, A1 and 3, all of which also distribute an offer.

� In Finland and Hungary, DVB-H services were deployed by network operators Digita and Antenna Hungaria (both of which are TDF subsidiaries), which led to the launch of free-to-air services offering an only small selection of channels.

� Elsewhere in Europe, trials have been completed in different parts of the country on a system using the DVB-H standard, or are still underway.

The award of two pan-European licences will enable the development of these services in the near future
After issuing a call for submissions in 2008, in April of this year the European Commission announced that it had awarded two pan-European S-band (2 GHz) licences of 30 MHz each: 15 MHz Earth-to-space and 15 MHz space-to-Earth.

The companies tat were awarded a licence, Solaris Mobile (a joint venture between Eutelsat and SES Astra) and Inmarsat, must satisfy the following obligations:
� cover 60% of the EU with the first commercial rollouts;
� make services available to at least 50% of the EU-27 population;
� cover the entire European Union by 2015.

MSS-CGC/DVB-SH systems present significant advantages in terms of coverage and cost
Modelling terrestrial network rollouts reveals that satellite is an economical solution for ensuring complementary coverage for terrestrial mobile networks. It appears that mobile operators will have trouble deploying their high-speed infrastructure beyond the 90% of the population that is already covered.

Even if they pool their efforts, which is the most likely scenario, they will probably be unable to provide coverage
effectively to the remaining 3% to 5% of the population, which opens up a niche market for satellite technology.

N�490 - 3D Video -

2009-10-13

Currently attracting a great deal of attention, 3D video is a market that is emerging as a driving force behind innovation and growth for TV and film industry players. This report provides a complete inventory of the current state of the market � presenting technical solutions, trials that are underway and pioneer commercial developments. It also offers 3D rollout scenarios up to 2015.

Main conclusions
� Stereoscopy, the current 3D standard, is considered to be the first generation of native 3D video technology. Autostereoscopy, which makes it possible to do away with viewing glasses, is being touted as the next 3D format.

� The audiovisual industry�s technical chain will need to adapt to the arrival of 3D. The biggest question mark that remains is the picture format to use, given the absence of an industry standard. In addition, to be able to take advantage of 3D, consumers will need to equip themselves with a new compatible screen (TV/monitor).

� One positive element in this development wave is that the industry will likely benefit from the efforts devoted to the transition to HD, since 3D will reuse the HD infrastructure in post-production and in the distribution stage.

� The development of 3D cinema appears to be an irreversible trend, and the entire technical chain appears to be working to meet the challenges created by 3D, from the increase in the number of films being produced to the equipment of movie theatres. Plus a business model appears to be emerging, with higher box office revenue being generated by films in 3D.

� The future of 3D TV is less clear, content is scarce, business models non existent and one crucial part of the equation remains problematic, namely the number of households equipped with the 3D-compatible viewing devices. Deciding on a common standard as quickly as possible seems to be critical to moving forward, added to which 3D/HD synergies should be maximised to ensure the development of 3D.

� The video game market will benefit from its ability to switch easily to 3D, starting with PC games. It could then prove a critical lever for increasing household 3D equipment levels, which it turn will pave the way for the deployment of 3D TV services. But we have a chicken or the egg conundrum here, with uncertainties still amongst the console makers, Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft, over the launch of their next generation consoles without there being a 3D television market in place.

3D development scenarios
� Special events cinema market � Centred around the use of 3D in cinemas, this scenario enables the swift development of 3D content, with a technical chain that is already in place. But the 3D market remains confined to special events viewing and to a small audience.

� 3DTV - This scenario is centred around TV viewing, both linear (3D TV channels) and/or time-shifted (from Blu-ray to VoD). To achieve a mass market over time, the industry will need to absorb the different generations of 3D, i.e. stereo-, auto- and multi-scopic.

� Multi-platform 3D � This is the most positive scenario for the development of a 3D mass market by 2015. The market finds itself in a virtuous circle where the maximum exposure of 3D content spurs consumption, which is itself fuelled by the availability of a large and varied selection of 3D content on several types of media/platform.

N�489 - Mobile VoIP -

2009-10-16

�Mobile VoIP is often perceived as a threat to mobile network operators, eating into their voice revenues as well as reducing them to mere �dumb pipes�. It has also been perceived as �the next big thing� for a while now in the mobile market�, says Soichi Nakajima, project Leader of the report.

This latest report, published by IDATE, will look at the myths and realities of mobile VoIP, the potential and threats of managed VoIP, and draw mobile VoIP penetration forecasts.

Key Findings

� In most cases, over-the-top mobile VoIP pricing is only attractive for international calls.

� Skype dominates the independent �cheap calls� VoIP market. Other independent players bundle Skype together with their own differentiated value to survive in the market.

� Google is the latest big name to enter the mobile VoIP field, and has the potential to disrupt the market with its unified communications approach and huge brand power.

� Currently, tier 1 MNOs are exploring possible revenue models around VoIP, or are still investigating how to profitably offer it on a large scale with acceptable QoS; whereas challengers are deploying VoIP as a means of competitive differentiation.

� It is only a matter of time before operators start to offer managed mobile VoIP. This will first manifest itself in the form of partnerships, followed by purely operator solutions.

� The following are the key factors for mobile VoIP take-off: competitiveness of the mobile market; uptake of fixed VoIP; penetration of unlimited data plans for mobile handsets; compatible handset availability; and MNO partnerships with third-party applications.

� There is potential to turn managed VoIP into increased data revenue, outweighing the loss in voice revenue, by taking elements from the success seen in fixed VoIP.

IDATE Forecasts

IDATE defines a mobile VoIP user as a user who uses a VoIP application on a mobile handset over a wireless carrier network, at least once a month. Based on this definition, IDATE predicts that the UK will be the early adopters, while France will be slow to take off to start with but accelerate from 2013.

The percentages of mobile VoIP users over the total number of mobile subscribers could reach 13% for the analyzed countries. Finally, converting the above percentages into user numbers, IDATE forecasts for the end of 2014, 75 million mobile VoIP users in the US, UK, Germany and France.

N�488 - The rise of Connected Devices -

2009-10-06

Following the success of smartphones, dedicated to mobile internet browing and data exchange, a new category of connected devices has emerged, in which netbooks have been the most successful to date, and it has radically changed the dynamics of the mobile telecom market.

The report, published by IDATE, provides a thorough analysis of the Connected Devices market up to 2013 and its impact for players of the mobile value chain.

� Prospects for this market are bright. Based on our estimates of the Connected Device market for each category of devices (Netbooks, MIDs, Electronics readers), IDATE forecasts that the Connected Devices market will rise from a 1.5% of total handset volumes shipped in 2008 (~18 Million Units) to around 11.1% in 2013 with 166 Million Units shipped. Netbooks will account for the main part (62 million Units shipped in 2013).

� This prosperous market has attracted the interest of major players from IT and the Mobile sector, who are trying to propose hardware and software products at the convergence of the fixed and nomad worlds. A strategic battle is thus taking place between hardware providers, such as Intel and ARM, and software providers, like Windows as well as Google (Linux based solution) , to conquer these new nomad platforms.

� In this growing market, Mobile Operators provide an entry point to the mobile web and have to broaden their devices portfolio. The value proposition has been increasingly attractive for netbooks and their associated data plans. Whereas MID and electronic book traction has been limited for now, most operators worldwide are now proposing netbooks offers bundled with a data allowance. However, these offers are still largely experimental with uncertain profitability and sustainability due to the lack of any incremental service strategy: operators are still trying out different levels of upfront subsidisation/monthly plan level combinations and limiting the number of authorised subscriptions for each plan.

� New challenges and opportunities are emerging for operators. Providing connected devices could add complexity: based on the success of netbook sales bundled with data plans, hopes are put on the possible transformation of mobile operators business into a new distribution channel for consumer electronics devices, but this also means customer support and product handling. On the other hand, the development of Mobile Cloud Computing services could become an important opportunity for operators proposing software as a service for this new range of connected devices.

N�487 - SMEs Survey 2009 -

2009-10-05

Sur la base d'un �tat des lieux chiffr� des niveaux d'�quipements et des projets TIC des TPE/PME, cette enqu�te propose une analyse d�taill�e des usages et services innovants en entreprise. Cette 5�me �dition est ainsi l'occasion de faire un point pr�cis sur le niveau de diffusion de la VoIP/ToIP, de la convergence fixe-mobile, des acc�s distants, du SaaS ou encore des outils collaboratifs traditionnels et avanc�s...

Le champ des activit�s marchandes hors agriculture en France m�tropolitaine compte 2.9 millions d'entreprises priv�es de 0 � 250 salari�s et emploie pr�s de 13 millions d'actifs, soit respectivement 85% du tissu industriel et pr�s de 50% la masse salariale globale.

Les investissements TIC des PME dans la crise
Dans un contexte de crise g�n�ralis�, une TPE/PME sur deux d�clare ne rien envisager de changer � ses projets IT � court terme. Pour les autres, deux profils de r�action se d�gagent :
� un premier profil plus � attentiste �, dont le mot d'ordre est "report et rationalisation"
� et un second profil � �conome �, davantage ax� sur l'anticipation des projets susceptibles de g�n�rer des �conomies imm�diates : ren�gociation des contrats, et mise ne place d'outils IT susceptible de r�duire les co�ts de transports notamment.

La diffusion des usages innovants s�acc�l�re
L'int�gration des TIC n'est pas homog�ne sur cette cible de march�, particuli�rement entre TPE -0 � 9 salari�s- et plus grosses PME. Ainsi, les premi�res, dont la taille des parcs d'�quipement est r�duite, ont une approche des TIC essentiellement "fonctionnelle" (i.e. motiv�e par les services) quand les secondes, doivent �galement int�grer une approche infrastructure, plus fortement contrainte par les cycles de renouvellement d'�quipement r�seau, n�cessitant de lourds investissements initiaux.

Au-del� du clivage central de la taille, certains secteurs d'activit� s'illustrent �galement par des comportements primo-adoptants vis-�-vis des solutions innovantes : c'est notamment le cas des Assurances, Organismes financiers, SSII et Bureaux d'�tudes.

VoIP
En mati�re de VoIP/ToIP, les tendances se confirment au cours de l'ann�e �coul�e sans bouleversement fondamental. Ainsi, la migration de tout ou partie du r�seau t�l�com traditionnel vers l'IP est aujourd'hui effective chez pr�s d'une PME connect�e sur 2. Apr�s une phase de forte croissance port�e par le succ�s des Box ADSL particuli�rement chez les TPE, le relai de croissance se d�place actuellement vers le haut du march� PME et les solutions full IP, de type Centrex ou IPBX. La diffusion de ce type de solution reste n�anmoins fortement conditionn�e par le cycle de renouvellement des autocoms, lequel se poursuit sur un rythme tendanciel en d�pit des nouvelles offres commerciales du march�.

Mobilit�
Les PC portables continuent d'investir le march� des TPE/PME � la faveur � la fois de primo-�quipement et d'accroissement du parc en place. Le parc de laptops d�ploy� b�n�ficie aujourd'hui d'une forte connectivit� mobile en Wifi mais de plus en plus �galement via cl�s USB 3G/3G+. Les attentes des TPE/PME vis-�-vis de la data mobile se traduisent aussi au niveau de leur flotte mobile, avec pr�s de 15% de mobiles b�n�ficiant effectivement d'un acc�s distant � Internet et/ou au syst�me d'information de l'entreprise.

Convergence Fixe Mobile
Si la diffusion de l'IP en environnement professionnel est une tendance in�luctable, elle reste encore contrainte par les cycles de renouvellement des �quipements (aujourd'hui seulement 1 t�l�phonique fixe sur 4 est un poste IP et les PABX traditionnels restent majoritaires) et par la n�cessit� de s'approprier les nouvelles fonctionnalit�s qu'elle permet : toutes les PME/TPE, et particuli�rement les plus petites, ne sont pas encore matures pour les communications unifi�es et la convergence fixe mobile.

Les outils collaboratifs
Au del� de la t�l�phonie sur IP les fonctions plus avanc�es sont encore mal appr�hend�es par une majorit� de TPE/PME. N�anmoins, le haut du march� marque les tendances de demain : avec notamment une app�tence soutenue pour les de solutions de Groupware et de messagerie unifi�e (respectivement 40% et 34% d'entreprises utilisatrices chez les 10 � 250 salari�s). La Messagerie Instantan�e plus en retrait au global, a cependant trouv� un march� chez les plus petites TPE. Les employ�s des TPE/PME ont encore une approche traditionnelle des outils de collaboration et font tr�s massivement confiance au t�l�phone, mails et r�unions en face � face dans leur �change entre partenaires. Le Web 2.0 est tr�s encore peu utilis� avec 5% des TPE/PME familiaris�es � l'usage des blogs, wiki, r�seaux sociaux en environnement professionnel.

Les applicatifs off et online
L'environnement applicatif des PME/TPE ax� sur le mail et les logiciels de bureautique, offre �galement une place centrale aux logiciels m�tiers ainsi qu'� la sauvegarde/s�curit� (plus de 50% de TPE/PME �quip�es pour ces deux applicatifs). L'achat de licence reste le mode d'acquisition dominant sur un march� ou les services en mode h�berg� se heurtent �galement au d�veloppement de l'Open source. Aujourd'hui, hors messagerie Internet, seules 10% des TPE/PME ont souscrit un service en mode Saas. En outre, lorsque ce type de solution est adopt� il est rarement g�n�ralis� � l'ensemble des applicatifs ; ce sch�ma ouvre la voix � des formules modulaires par brique applicative, plut�t qu'a des formules globalis�es.

N�486 - FMC -

2009-09-23

This report examines the current status of fixed-mobile convergence services in the business market through an analysis of the solutions being marketed by the leading carriers in five Western European countries: France, Germany, Spain, Italy and the UK. Drawing on a survey performed in France in 2008, the report provides a number of indicators on the enterprise fixed-mobile convergence and VoIP markets, along with estimates of the fixed-mobile convergence market for businesses.

IDATE estimates that by 2013, the fixed-mobile convergence market � which is one of the mobile services sector�s building blocks � could be generating 900 million EUR in revenue in the five countries listed, accounting for 4% of mobile services revenue. This trend would help operators turn the tide on the trend of shrinking ARPU of past several years which has occurred as a result of price wars.

A rather large and disparate offering

An examination of the catalogue of offers marketed by Western Europe�s top five operators reveals a broad diversity of fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) solutions. They may differ either because an operator employs a different strategy in each country where it does business, or because operators position themselves differently in national markets for specific strategic, technical or economic reasons.

Operators may incorporate one or several types of fixed-mobile convergence solution in their line-up:
� price convergence: the same rate plan for fixed and mobile calling;
� convergence of services: the same line of services available regardless of whether the call originates on a fixed or mobile phone, with optimised calling costs;
� handset convergence: a dual-mode handset with advanced features for fixed and mobile calls.

For operators, fixed-mobile convergence solutions constitute a tool that helps them to:
� keep customers by taking charge of all of their fixed and mobile access needs, along with voice and data services in the case of integrated operators;
� boost their capacity to win back customers who have switched over to the competition;
� diminish the erosion of average revenue per user (ARPU) for fixed and mobile calling;
� for big projects aimed at large SMEs or large corporations, the ability to offer integration, operation and maintenance solutions to enhance overall ARPU per customer: this is particularly true for integrated operators that market a wide array of services associated with their core business of telecom solutions provider.

Market forecasts

Revenue generated by fixed-mobile convergence services in the five largest Western European markets could reach 900 million EUR in 2013.

These offerings would enable operators to turn the tide to some degree on the trend of shrinking ARPU of the past several years.

The biggest obstacle for the enterprise fixed-mobile convergence market is nevertheless the added costs involved, in terms of both investments in equipment and higher operating costs, which for businesses could outweigh the benefits to users. In these times of crisis, cost-cutting measures are proving an impediment to the adoption of this type of service.

Although a company may see a real advantage in using a single vendor for all their telecom services (single invoice, single point of contact for all voice and even data solutions, single customer support centre, etc.), it nevertheless remains that negotiations for renewing solutions will be harder. This is even truer for large accounts where there is often a desire to have several suppliers for the different telecom solutions used in the workplace. The single vendor argument could thus also prove an impediment to the adoption of fixed-mobile convergence solutions.

N�485 - eHealth -

2009-09-23

�The major question on eHealth is a matter of �when�, not �if��, says Steven Andlauer, �assuming that state-of-the-art implementations can drive operational and financial efficiency�.

Key findings
________
� The market is still in its infancy and will take two more years to attain serious growth. Issues of regulation, language, investment and training need to be resolved first.
� IT systems in hospitals and for physicians will most probably be the first to grow, quickly followed by home monitoring solutions.
� Healthcare systems differ greatly from country to country, with a multitude of stakeholders in each: insurances, physicians, nurses, the pharmaceutical sector, regulator, schools of medicine and more. Only country-by-country strategies will work.
� Consolidation of the market is likely; the eHealth market is scattered at present, with a few, leading Health IT firms (mainly US-based) and many SMEs.
� The telecom industry, and in particular network operators, have potential business cases in the eHealth market. For these, key assets are secure connectivity and sales channels.
__________

IDATE has segmented eHealth into three relevant markets, whilst acknowledging that some large companies are active in more than one of these segments:
� Healthcare IT systems
� Home Healthcare
� Transactional services, supporting the two previous segments.

Of those operating in these three segments, IDATE has identified the following five main types of players:
� Health solution developers
� Medical-grade hardware vendors
� Telecom operators
� IT giants
� Web giants.

This market has two characteristics typical of an early market with intense competition: it is very fragmented, and no player has yet reached a global scale on its own. In consequence, companies rely heavily on partnerships to deliver globally across the value chain: whilst some of the Health IT heavyweights offer a large set of solutions all packaged by themselves (including datacentres, outsourcing and patient portals) in most cases partnership deals are struck so that specialists in each fields handle part of the solution.

This fragmentation is likely the result of the complexity of the eHealth market mentioned above: learning how to address a market, developing ad hoc products, can be a matter of years and is not totally replicable to another geography and/or product. Moreover, with medicine being an art in constant evolution, its tools change, its cures evolve and systems must be adapted accordingly. This leaves little headroom for specialised players to focus on other matters than simply keeping their products up to date. Large generalist IT players, on the contrary, are well-positioned to bring this industry to the next level, focusing on integration and maintenance rather than on product development.

The perspective of telecom operators

From the perspective of the telecom industry, eHealth can be considered a growth driver, either by providing direct services to hospitals and patients including portals, devices and eHealth 3G data plans or through indirect services to eHealth solution vendors such as connectivity and authentication APIs and billing. Practically, the prime elements that telecoms can bring to this industry include sensors and communicating modules integrated within mobile handsets, ad hoc secured connectivity services and end-user training capacity.

However, there are also factors which may hinder telecoms entry in this market:
� Reluctance of end-users, including physicians, to embrace new technologies
� Medical data security hurdles: ethical and legal requirements
� Potential health hazards from wireless communication technology
� Management of a number of partnerships for products and/or specific areas.

Market potential: The addressable market for operators

The market of connected healthcare is still at a very early stage. However, caution is called for with regard to how fast it will evolve, due to the intrinsic barriers in the healthcare industry, which is thoroughly regulated and generally operates under difficult financial conditions.

The addressable market for operators is by no means limited to just the transactional connectivity segment. The addressable market for telecom operators will include some overlap between the home healthcare segment and the transactional segments, and Health IT systems (considered separatly in this report), for operators with Business Services operations :

� Telemedicine solutions - These solutions encompass remote patient condition management for patients with chronic conditions. These platforms are provided through such links as home television and broadband connections directly in the patient�s home.

� Health portal information - Online health portals, such as the Revolution Health portal, were created as a sort of �wellness portal� where users can assess their health risks, set personal goals for physical health and trade information on local physicians. These sites can be viewed as a combination of medical information and social networking sites.

� Personal Medical Devices - Devices integrating sensors able to detect, process and transmit physical parameters are introducing new services and usages. Few devices are available for now, but this segment constitutes a major opportunity in the healthcare market for ICT players.

� Electronic Health Records - Depending on existing policy coordination for EHR, operators might be able to capture a share of the EHR market.

N�484 - Mobile Network Outsourcing & Sharing -

2009-09-22

Today, network sharing and outsourcing are not confined to challengers in the mobile market anymore but have become widely adopted among all kinds of mobile operators. This report presents different flavours of outsourcing and sharing and what drives mobile operators to do so. The analysis also sheds light on the long term impact on the industry, including equipment vendors.

Network sharing and outsourcing have gathered significant momentum in recent years and became mainstream even for tier 1 operators in major markets. Today, network sharing and outsourcing are not confined to challengers in the mobile market anymore but have become widely adopted among all kinds of mobile operators. The question is, whether this trend will be a temporary hype, as the spin-off of incumbents' mobile operations in the early 2000s or whether the increasing popularity of infrastructure sharing and outsourcing marks the dusk of the era of integrated network operators/service providers. In the latter case, today's MNOs will ultimately evolve into ServCos, something very similar to full MVNOs; having full customer ownership and a marketing focus but no radio access network of their own. The increasing momentum of the trend towards sharing and outsourcing seems to indicate that MNOs have indeed embarked on an evolution towards an infrastructure-light business model. A number of factors will continue to push MNOs into this direction.

Network outsourcing and sharing at the core of MNO strategies

Network outsourcing and network sharing has been observed for several years already. Following the UMTS licence frenzy, infrastructure sharing became an economic necessity for a number of operators to meet 3G coverage license requirements.. For instance, the most important reference for network sharing in the EU is the deal struck between T-Mobile and O2 to share infrastructures in Germany and the UK, the countries with the most expensive licences in Europe by far. Mobile network outsourcing first appeared towards the year 2004. Mobile challengers were the first players to adopt the model while multinationals were still reluctant to opt for outsourcing. Over the last 2 to 3 years, however, a real boom in the number of infrastructure outsourcing and sharing deals can be observed worldwide. Challengers as well as tier 1 players have multiplied deals in their different worldwide markets and have broadened the scope of the agreements.

Different Flavours of network outsourcing and sharing

"Network sharing" is not necessarily the same thing as "network sharing"; there is a variety of network sharing options and scenarios. The same holds for network outsourcing, where MNOs can opt for different degrees of outsourcing their networks.

� Network outsourcing: The "lightest" form of outsourcing concerns maintenance. Although the MNO keeps full responsibility for running the network operations centre, field maintenance is delegated to the service provider. Such deals may include spare parts management. In the case of network operations and maintenance outsourcing the service provider is in charge of running the infrastructure. The MNO keeps control of network planning and build out. In a full network outsourcing setting all network related tasks are delegated to the service provider.

� Network sharing: The main distinction to be made is between passive and active infrastructure sharing. Passive infrastructure sharing refers to the case where MNOs share assets like sites, power supply or masts but no active elements of the network. If MNOs agree on active network sharing, the deal includes elements such as antennas, Node-B, backhaul capacity or even core network elements. So far, the majority of sharing agreements concerns passive infrastructure only. One important aspect is whether network sharing takes place in a brownfield or greenfield setting. Efficiency gains from sharing will be significantly higher in the latter case, where the infrastructure can be designed from the outset to meet multiple MNOs' demand instead of adjusting existing networks.

Equipment vendors' positioning

Infrastructure services have been the fastest growing segment of telecommunications markets. Network outsourcing is one of the most dynamic elements of these infrastructure services. Competition among vendors is intense as the market is of strategic importance to them. Securing deals with MNOs in an early stage of the market will open the door for further contracts across their international footprints. Multiplying the number of deals also not only allows the vendor to gain expertise but also to generate economies of scale and scope. At the same time, the number of potential clients is shrinking as more and more MNOs share their networks. Providing the additional value of network outsourcing services may therefore be vital to a vendor's long-term viability.

Market size

� Mobile network outsourcing market size: the market generated by this activity reached 3.1 billion EUR in 2008 that represented 8% of the total addressable market estimated to reach 13% by 2012.

� Mobile network sharing market size: the estimated potential savings for passive sharing and active sharing were 39 billion EUR and 49 billion respectively in 2008.

N�483 - Pay TV -

2009-09-22

Despite the crisis that is currently sweeping the entire television industry, the pay-TV segment is enjoying a relatively stable position.

Television�s global sales figures are expected to fall 1.3% between 2008 and 2009, whereas revenue generated by pay-TV services is expected to grow 4.7% over the period.

� With sales of 110 billion EUR in 2008, the pay-TV market accounted for 41.7% of the total TV industry worldwide. Pay TV is present in 540 million households around the world, putting it on an almost equal footing with free-to-air TV (public or commercial): 48% of TV households pay to watch enhanced TV).

� The sector is even seeing sustained growth (though the level varies with each geographic region) both in terms of subscribers (+4% from 2008 to 2009) and revenue (+4.7% over the same period).

� With 23% of TV households and 25% of pay-TV households, Europe is the second largest market behind Asia-Pacific and ahead of North America. Europe is also the second in value at 83 billion EUR (30 billion EUR comes from pay TV), behind North America and ahead of Asia-Pacific.

The further digitization of cable networks, the launch of pay-TV offerings on digital terrestrial networks that are still in the deployment stage, and the wide variety of TVover- IP offerings largely explain the good health of the pay market.

However, competition from the Internet�which opens up access to a broad array of professional and amateur content�and rapidly-changing consumption patterns such as mobile or time-shifted viewing pose a real threat to traditional players in the pay-TV segment.

These television broadcasters, commercial and/or technical operators are now competing in a race to differentiate their offerings and to create a new value proposition. The goal is to make their services more attractive in an effort to curb the loss of subscribers that some are already facing.

N�482 - The World Television Market -

2009-09-22

The global advertising market was obviously not spared from the worldwide economic crisis that started during the summer of 2008. That year, the market was still growing but appeared to be running out of steam, with only a 0.5% increase compared to 2007. Though television and Internet recorded a slowdown in their growth on a worldwide basis, radio and the press were already showing a drop of -4.3% and -5.1% respectively.

Note that press and radio advertising revenues were already experiencing weak growth even before the crisis. Actually, listening to terrestrial radio had reached saturation while the press looked on, powerless to stem the migration of its reader � and in parallel of advertising and classified ads � to the Internet, which poses a great danger to the survival of its paper-based business. Actually, the press has been unable to monetize their online content at rates comparable to its paper-based content; they generate at least 10 times, if not 20 times, less revenue online than that for paper...

On the other hand, 2009 has been a downturn year for the ad market probably on the order of -7.2% compared to 2008. Except for the Internet, all media have experienced a contraction in advertising revenue ranging from -7.5% for television to -11.4 for radio and - 11.6% for the press. However, the Web, which before 2007 captured less revenue on a worldwide basis than radio, is growing (on a worldwide basis) at a rate of 11.4% or more than 5% less than in 2008. The Internet continues to grow in a bleak economic climate, but only by 11.4% � 5 points below the rate of growth in 2008. Although the Web attracted fewer investments than radio up to 2007, it has now definitively taken hold as the number three mass medium, behind TV and print.

The generalised contraction of the ad market should not continue in 2010. IDATE predicts stabilisation of the market and anticipates a global growth of 3.2% for 2010. The market should then experience some rebound in the following years and will reach growth rates greater than 4% in 2011 and 2012. Nevertheless, the global ad market will not return to its 2008 level (in revenue) before 2012. Actually, television, radio, the press and Internet attracted 308.4 billion EUR in 2008 compared to the expected 307.7 billion EUR at the end of 2011. By the end of 2012, the global market should exceed its 2008 level of revenue at 321.9 billion EUR. This figure nevertheless masks huge disparities between the different media.

Though the overall ad market should grow an average of nearly 4% per year between 2010 and 2012, the various media are showing disparate growth rates. The global market should be essentially pulled along by the Internet�s momentum, with a CAGR 2010-2012 of 15.5%. The steady advertising revenue in TV, with a CAGR of 3% over the same period, should also contribute to the recovery of the ad market. Smaller in value, the radio market should record a CAGR of 1.9% between 2010 and 2012 while press advertising revenue should stagnate in 2010 before experiencing a sort of catch-up effect resulting in a slight growth of 1% in 2011 and 2012.

N�481 - LTE: Roadmap and Forecasts -

2009-09-21

According to its latest report dedicated to Mobile Broadband, IDATE predicts that, by 2015, a total of 380 million subscribers in the USA, EU5, Scandinavia, China, Japan and South Korea will have access to mobile data through LTE networks.

With virtually all big-name operators, handset manufacturers and network vendors on board, the LTE ecosystem is healthy in the extreme - The LTE/SAE Trial Initiative (LSTI) and the Next Generation Mobile Networks (NGMN) Alliance both demonstrate a strong commitment to LTE. The former includes 23 equipment vendors and nine operators, and the latter includes 19 operators and 33 equipment vendors.

Earliest LTE deployments announced for end-2010; many more operators are set to follow - The forerunners of LTE deployment are NTT DOCOMO of Japan and Verizon Wireless of the USA. A host of other big-name MNOs is committed to deploying the technology from 2011 onwards.

Handset vendors still poised to deploy LTE, despite the financial crisis, first through laptops, then high-end phones and on to the mass market - All major handset vendors gave recorded negative YoY shipments due to the financial downturn. This will not stop LTE devices, however, and the first terminals will be aimed for use with laptops, gradually moving on to high-end phones and then to the mass market.

With advent of LTE, many MNOs could become enthusiastic about VoIP and adopt managed-VoLTE - LTE does not support circuit-switched (CS) services, but current mobile networks primarily uses CS for voice services. LTE can utilise VoIP together with an IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem) network to deliver delay-sensitive, real-time voice services. Presently, operators see VoIP as a threat to their 3G networks, but VoLTE brings benefits to both operators and users. Initial LTE deployment is likely to see CS fallback for voice services, but in the long run managed-VoLTE could be a real possibility.

By adopting LTE, operators can hope to maintain current ARPU levels and stay being a smart pipe - LTE will certainly enhance the mobile experience, but monetising it will be difficult. Consumers are accustomed to free services from the world of Internet, and many LTE services will duplicate them. The realistic aim for operators would be to maintain current ARPU levels by offering premium services, and to keep being a smart pipe by staying at the core of the ecosystem by means of controlling the network and specific activities on top of it.

LTE will likely accelerate FMC, network sharing and strategic partnerships, especially in current financial climate - One potential downfall of LTE is its coverage, especially in its early days. Together with the expanding cellular backhaul traffic, LTE is a driver for adopting Fixed-Mobile Convergence (FMC). Network sharing and partnerships can already be seen throughout the LTE ecosystem, for a variety of reasons; for greater buying power, stronger influence over standards or to gain a foothold in a new market, to name but a few. In the current financial climate, cost-saving is also a key driver.

The cost of LTE deployment for an MNO operating both GSM and UMTS/HSDPA networks amounts to 2.1 billion EUR for coverage of the urban and suburban population. This is the figure to be considered for a territory of 50 million inhabitants with the population density characteristics of a Western European country.

Innovative services and business models, such as VoLTE which can bring benefits to both operators and subscribers, need to be deployed if operators are to maximise the potential of LTE deployment, maintain ARPU levels and continue to be a smart pipe.

N�480 - The World Telecom Services Market -

2009-09-21

The recovery could come from emerging countries such as China which, in addition to its strong potential for economic growth, is already showing positive signs of increased stability overall, thanks to massive stimulus measures. At the end of June, the OECD thus revised its GDP growth forecasts for several emerging countries from March of the previous year. In China, GDP growth is expected to total +7.7% in 2009 and +9.3% in 2010 (up from +6.3% and +8.5%, respectively, in March 2008). OECD forecasts for Brazil indicate a 0.8% decline in economic growth in 2009, followed by a 4% increase in 2010 (March �08 forecasts: 0.3% and +3.8%). In Russia, the OECD predicts that economic growth will decrease by 6.8% in 2009 before an upswing to 3.7% growth in 2010 (March �08 forecasts: +4.3% and +5.8%). OECD forecasts for India, meanwhile, include a drop to +5.9% growth in 2009, rising in 2010 to +7.2% (March �08 forecasts: +4.3% and +5.8%).

In Europe, there could be a slight recovery in 2010, albeit fraught with setbacks. There are no signs as yet of a clear recovery in the Eurozone, according to the latest OECD outlook from June 2009, even if the forecast figures are up and the situation appears less bleak. GDP is forecast to decrease by 4.8% in Europe in 2009, followed by zero growth in 2010. The forecasts from March 2008 were for a 4.1% decrease in 2009 and 0.3% growth in 2010.

Economic growth in the United States is expected to decline by 2.8% in 2009, and not by 4% as forecast in March of last year. The growth forecast for 2010 is now 0.9%, instead of the previous 0%.

Global recession more drastic than initially thought

In terms of value, annual growth for telecom services worldwide totalled 3.7% in 2008, or just under the 4% forecast in our last publication in January 2009. After the recovery which had been ongoing since 2005, 2008 marked a clear drop in telecom services market growth. With revenue totalling 1,404 billion USD, annual growth is estimated at 3.7%: the lowest for the global market since 2002, in other words just after the Internet bubble burst. Growth in 2009 and 2010 is likely to mark the nadir of the past ten years, staying below 4%.

If we continue to believe that the recession, which has worsened since autumn 2008 and whose impact we have reconsidered, is an aggravating but passing factor, this decreased growth is above all the result of more structural pressures weighing on the world telecommunications market, namely the fact that certain markets which have long been driving forces have reached maturity (notably mobile markets in economically advanced countries), the effects of the substitution and/or demonetisation of applications, competitive and/or regulatory pressures, etc.

On the whole, a review of our earlier forecasts reveals the extent to which we concentrated, in some cases too heavily, the effects of the recession in the last part of 2008 and the early months of 2009. Now in mid-2009, we believe that the crisis will be more lasting and have an impact on the results for the entire year.

Trends by Market

In fixed markets, the ongoing development of the Internet and broadband is only just offsetting the inexorable decline of landline telephony, while growth in the mobile services market dropped by four points in 2008 compared to 2007.

With a total turnover estimated at 709.2 billion USD in 2007 and 763 billion USD 2008, mobile services continue to account for all the growth in the telecom services market. Their weight in the total equation continues to rise: since 2006 mobile services have accounted for more than half of telecom services consolidated turnover worldwide � a proportion estimated at 54% in 2008, and which could reach close to 57% by 2012. The mobile market�s growth is sustained chiefly by the expansion of the subscriber base, which increased by another 19% in 2008. At the same time, average revenue per user (ARPU) has been dropping steadily.

Fixed telephony continues its decline which began in 2002, and at an ever increasing pace. In 2008, the market lost another 6% of its total value worldwide, due to the combination of a decrease in the number of fixed lines and a marked drop in average revenue per line. The data and Internet access services markets are playing an increasingly large part in the telecom services market�s growth worldwide. In 2008, they generated over 19 billion USD more in revenue than the year before, for a total turnover of 264 billion USD. Their weight in the equation is increasing steadily, going from 15% of telecom services revenue in 2001 to close to 19% in 2008, but their contribution to overall growth is only just offsetting the losses being reported in fixed telephony services revenue.

We initially forecast a sharper decline for the market for data transmission services in the business segment � and have revised our forecasts slightly for Western Europe and North America. It is the Internet market, and especially broadband, that is enjoying the only remarkable growth trajectory. Broadband subscriber numbers have been revised, however: down to 401 million at the end of 2008, instead of the 415 million estimated in our previous publication � proof of the decreasing rate of growth of the broadband customer base.

N�479 - The World Telecom Equipment Market -

2009-09-17

The worldwide investment spending by telecom operators (except cable operators) continued to increase in 2008 by +9.4%, reaching �175 Billion, and at a faster pace compared to 2007 (+1.4%). Fixed capital expenditures (CAPEX) grew in 2008 by 2.9%, the average of fixed network investments growth slow down compared to 2007 (+4.7%). Mobile CAPEX levels were higher in 2008 as mobile investments grew by 15.4 %, and growing faster than the year before (+9.9%).

Guidance for 2009: Slow CAPEX Evolution Predicted: Overall, we expect market growth rate to be constricted by the grim economic climate in 2009. Still, major investments from Asian service providers, such as China Mobile or Bharti in India will keep investing significantly to increase coverage and capacity in underserved areas. Also, Chinese service providers are expected to invest about $3 billion for their 3G networks in 2009. In the Philippines, Digitel, said Monday, it plans to spend around $350 million in 2009, compared to $300 million in 20085, to upgrade and expand its network.

In the Middle East & Africa region, we expect Turkish mobile service providers to boost the CAPEX growth in 2009 as Turkcell's CEO Sureyya Ciliv�s announced that their "total CAPEX investment is going to double from year 2008 to 2009�. MTN, South Africa-based mobile group claimed it grew its subscriber base by 48% in 2008 and seems optimistic about the subscriber addition they will make in 2009. Therefore, this major player in the African market will keep rising its CAPEX in 2009. Du from UAE, another main service provider in the Middle East & African region, is also expected to allocate a significant amount of its revenues to its CAPEX in 2009 and says it would spend up to �390 million by the end of the year.

In other regions, mobile service providers already announced that they would be cautious in 2009 and delay major spending. It is the case in the US, for instance, where AT&T announced that their "network upgrades are slated to begin later this year, with completion expected in 2011".

In Western Europe, Deutsche Telekom CAPEX was about �100 million to increase broadband coverage. The German operator initially wanted to allocate about the same amount for its network expansion in 2009 but might just review its plan and reduce significantly this figure. Elsewhere, Portuguese service provider, Portugal Telecom, decided to increase its optical fibber CAPEX by 10% in 2009.

In Latin America, service providers might also slow down their investments in 2009, but they will probably rise again in 2010, especially if Chile and Peru governments award 3G licenses towards the end of the year.

N�478 - RFID & Internet of Things -

2009-09-16

Montpellier, France � September, 16 2009 � RFID has gone beyond its initial positioning as an ID access solution, to provide advanced applications like supply chain management, and will progressively become mainstream. While still suffering from some major technical imperfections (especially for read rates in metal and/or water environments), the major issues that need to be addressed before greater deployment of RFID are related to business models. RFID has proven to have higher value in environments that can take full advantage of this technology: high levels of automation (no line of sight), large volume simultaneous reading, real-time modification or management of objects with complex characteristics. But achieving ROI with RFID is still challenging, as set-up costs are still prohibitive with physical tags and integration processes, and as benefits are not sufficiently shared along the entire value chain.

The Internet of things, in which any objects and items could connect to the Internet to retrieve information to enhance its intrinsic value, is still years away. Using RFID to tag an object with a virtual label remains the best option (compared with barcodes) for easy-touse solutions that are combined with NFC devices. Beyond tags, the Internet of things requires a completely new infrastructure to handle the large databases that have to be deployed to allow for open loop solutions. In the medium term, as with similar initiatives in the past, most IOT solutions will remain, in fact, internal B2B projects.

The market for RFID and IOT is mainly benefiting hardware providers (tags and reader manufacturers). However, the RFID market will really become significant and reach another order of magnitude if tags become commodities. Major long term opportunities will first concern IT services and then IOT services based on platforms and middleware that enable the numerous information exchanges between all the vertical players involved. Key players should emerge as aggregators around services similar to those of the web.

Despite attempts to develop a set of shared technologies, RFID and IOT are vertically-driven markets. Therefore the pace of development will vary significantly between all the vertical markets, depending on their technical and business maturity regarding the adoption of RFID. Textile and cultural goods industries have made most progress in this area, while the food industry is the most promising in terms of volume but has yet to find a business model to reach the item-level. The global downturn has clearly some impacts for RFID and IOT deployments, as these technologies are dependant on the underlying vertical markets, some of which, like the automobile industry, have been heavily impacted.

N�477 - M2M : The Machine-to-Machine market is still growing despite the global downturn -

2009-09-16

Montpellier, France � September, 16 2009 � �The M2M market is still growing despite the global downturn� says Samuel Ropert, Project Leader of the report. In 2009, the cellular market should represent 38 million modules worldwide for a total market of 11.2 billion EUR. But growth in 2009 will be much lower than expected, less than 10% in value and 25% in volume, as most of the vertical markets are suffering from the economic crisis (automotive, industrial machines). The situation should be the same for satellite M2M, representing 1.03 billion EUR in total market value for 2009, although the target markets are not the same.

All the players hope that emerging markets will take the M2M market to the next level with forecasts of 27.3 billion EUR for cellular M2M and 2.1 billion EUR for satellite M2M in 2013. Expected volumes are huge because they are related to very commonplace machines (cars, meters, consumer products�) and could account for 6.5% of SIM cards in Europe by 2013. Most of these new solutions have less well defined business model and therefore remain more dependent on the application of vertical regulations which would be hard to implement without the deployment of M2M. This also explains why Europe is leading the M2M market (more vertical regulations in Europe), while USA is the leader for satellite-based solutions (especially on homeland security).

While some telcos were reluctant to position themselves directly on these markets a few years ago, most of them are now battling actively to carve out a significant share of the market and are trying to distinguish themselves through technical initiatives (IPv6, hardened or embedded SIMs, portals�) and other business features (international one-stop shopping, leasing�). M2M offers them attractive opportunities, as, despite low ARPU, projects offer high lifetime value, reduced churn rate and average deals representing thousands of SIM cards. Connectivity alone should represent 4.3 billion EUR in 2013 and more than 4% of mobile data revenues for European telcos. MVNOs are being pushed out of the market and are therefore repositioning themselves as tool providers, while module providers are having difficulties to break even in a market in which unit prices are falling.

N�476 - FTTx World Market -

2009-08-27

Montpellier, France - August, 27 2009 � IDATE has published a complete report summarizing the main results of its latest analysis of the world FTTx markets.

FTTx deployments still in progress
As end of 2008, the global FTTx market which includes FTTH/B, VDSL, FTTLA and FTTX+LAN architectures represented 48 million subscribers. FTTH and FTTB are still the most prevalent network architectures, accounting for more than 61% of the fibre-connected subscribers. Those architectures and in particular FTTB based, are the most economic and the most suitable solution for operators to increase their bandwidth in many countries especially in Asia (densely populated areas) and also now starting in emerging countries.

FTTH/B: the prevailing architecture
The global FTTH/B market continues to make strides. Growth in 2008 was significant, with more than 8 million additional subscribers (+39% over the past 12 months) bringing the number of FTTH/B subscribers around the world to just over 29 million at the end of 2008.

Asia Pacific is still the FTTH/B market leader, and subscriber growth is accelerating thanks to China:
It is not surprising that Asia Pacific continued to dominate the FTTH/B and was the major contributing region in terms of subscribers with near 5 million additional users in one year. The highest worldwide concentration of FTTH/B subscribers was in the Asia region: with close to four-fifth of the global FTTH/B subscribers at the end of 2008. The number of FTTH/B subscribers in the Asia Pacific region rose from 17.9 million to more than 22.7 million between December 2007 and December 2008. Thus, the Asian market accounted for the bulk of the global FTTH/B market, with Japan and South Korea still leading the way.

North America region marked by a substantial growth driven by United States:
Reaching 5 million FTTx subscribers at the end of 2008, the United States market continued to progress, particularly in the FTTH/B market with 1.9 new subscribers in one year. The US is the global third largest fibre access market, behind Japan and South Korea, and accounts for 16% of the globe�s FTTx subscribers. Marking a 90% increase over the end of 2008, it makes the United States the globe�s fastest growing FTTH/B market.

European market gaining momentum:
Still well behind the Asian and North American markets, the Western Europe market appears to gain momentum. As of December 2008, it accounted for 5% of the global FTTH/B market with more than 1.5 million subscribers, compared to just over a million at the end of 2007 (+60% growth in on year). High disparities characterize the Western European FTTH/B market as only six countries combined account for 81% of the subscriber base: Sweden, Italy, Norway, France, Denmark and the Netherlands. Concerning Eastern Europe, Russia is representing already a booming FTTH/B market with at end 2008, 630 000 FTTB subscribers and 6.3 million Homes Passed.

FTTx Vendors' dynamics:
The installed FTTx ports are estimated worldwide at 83.3 million as end of 2008. At end of July 2009, we can now present a first estimate of the vendors global market shares at 2009, Q2. In a very fragmented FTTx market, the global top six vendors is composed of Asian equipment vendors, ZTE being the market leader. Huawei came in second position followed by the Japanese manufacturer Mitsubishi in the third position.

FTTH Market Forecasts 2014:
The very high broadband access (FTTH/B and VDSL5 combined) is expected to experience steady growth in the coming years, to reach close to 140 million subscribers around the globe by 2014. Naturally the rate of progress will not be the same across the board, as each national market will be shaped by the country�s intrinsic features and its players.

The full research report is freely available upon request from IDATE.

N�475 - IDATE signs a strategic agreement with Centris, a North American based marketing intelligence organization -

2009-07-10

IDATE expands the distribution of its catalogue of market reports and databases through a strategic agreement with Centris, a North American based marketing intelligence organization.

Montpellier, France - July, 10 2009 � IDATE today announced it has entered an agreement with Centris to expand its market intelligence reports to US companies and public bodies. IDATE will bundle Centris research reports into its own syndicated offering, providing its clients with a unique perspective on a the very powerful and original tools for tracking consumer demand for voice, video and data solutions in the United States.

IDATE is a leading European market analysis and consulting firm with over 30 years experience providing market data to companies in the telecommunications, Internet and media markets. Centris is a U.S.-based marketing intelligence organization that focuses on how consumers use technology for information and entertainment.

According to IDATE CEO Yves Gassot, �This partnership helps strengthen IDATE�s ties with the North American market and provides an opportunity to forge synergies between our teams of consultants devoted to the special requirements of the telecom, Internet and media markets, which we have both been tracking for a very long time. The U.S. will be honoured this year as the guest country of our upcoming DigiWorld Summit�

�Our new relationship with IDATE is an important strategic initiative for Centris. Our collaboration will provide our U.S. clients in the voice, video and data markets with an expanded research perspective that includes the IDATE global perspective,� said William J. Beaumont, President of Centris. �As an initial step, we will be providing IDATE�s research reports in our Syndicated Report bundles, increasing the value of the strategic information we provide our clients.�
� Infrastructure and equipment
� Mobile broadband and mobile services
� Internet services
� Media and digital content

For more information about syndicated research reports from IDATE, visit www.idate-research.com or contact Isabel Jimenez, i.jimenez@idate.org

The United States, the guest country of the DigiWorld Summit - 18-19 Nov. 2009 (France)
This year, the United States is the guest country of IDATE's yearly international conference. Several keynote speakers will attend to share their visions on the theme: �Open Innovation �
> Details & Program at www.digiworldsummit.com

About Centris
Centris is a member of the AUS Group, one of the top research organizations in the United States. Centris provides market intelligence on buyers� preferences and behaviors relating to the purchase and use of voice, video and data services. Centris conducts daily market surveys providing clients with syndicated research reports, tracking reports and custom studies. In addition, Centris develops and maintains analytic models and provides consulting services to help marketers plan and evaluate their marketing strategies, track competitor actions and optimize their marketing mixes. Centris helps its clients grow revenue, expand margins and build strong brands. For more information, please visit www.centris.com.

About IDATE
Founded in 1977, IDATE is one of Europe�s foremost market analysis and consulting firms, whose mission is to provide assistance in strategic decision-making for its clients in the Telecom, Internet and Media industries, through the following two areas of activity: Consulting & Research (an independent consultancy and publication of a catalogue of market reports) and the DigiWorld Programme (a member-supported annual programme: DigiWorld Club, DigiWorld Summit, DigiWorld Yearbook, and Communications & Strategies economic review).

N�474 - Mobile VoIP -

2009-07-03

The massive surge in mobile data usage enabled by broader 3G network availability, higher download speeds and better adapted smartphones such as the iPhone has been a source of hope in an otherwise quickly saturating mobile industry in advanced European and North American markets. This momentum has led to a number of popular Internet applications (search engines, instant messengers, games�) being transposed for mobile access and use, few of which have generated more anticipation, fear and outright hype than voice over IP (VoIP).

This paper (free download on your right) explores the burning question of whether the time for a mobile VoIP �tipping point� has come. We feel that mobile VoIP is not ready for primetime yet for several reasons:

1. Mobile and fixed VOIP are fake twins
While there are interesting lessons to derive from what happened in fixed VoIP in terms of market acceptance factors (simple and universal end user experience, acceptable quality of service, attractive pricing), fixed and mobile networks have intrinsically different technical attributes. Consequently, the bandwidth and capacity constrained mobile environment creates substantial implementation challenges for the large scale adoption of a bandwidth, latency and quality of service-sensitive application such as mobile VoIP.

2. Mobile VoIP is still in its infancy with highly limited use cases
Current mobile VoIP solutions have severe limitations for end users in terms of usability and availability as they only operate in semi-nomadic use in 3G or Wifi coverage areas while not ensuring 3G to 2G or 3G to Wifi handover or proper carrier to carrier handover. They also induce significant handset battery drains while not being easily operable across most handsets.

3. Current mobile VoIP on 3G has many of the �solution looking for a problem� attributes
Packet data channels of 3G were initially designed to enable a �best effort� transport of data services alongside a robust and time tested (derived from GSM) circuit switched design for voice services. Introducing mobile VoIP in the resource constrained mobile environment (i) creates technical and quality of service challenges that traditional mobile voice was designed to avoid, (ii) disrupts the complex service provisioning tradeoffs that operators need to achieve for a mass market high quality service (iii) while, for the time being, neither generating clear usage benefits for the majority of users nor for mobile operators.

4. Mobile VoIP should become a widespread service through the combination of optimized managed VoIP solutions, pervasive HSPA and better yet LTE networks
The long term dynamic towards unified voice and electronic (email, instant messaging, social networks�) communications integrated with presence and location features are creating compelling long term benefits for users and operators alike. These will be enabled by the emergence of managed VoIP solutions which by prioritizing packetized voice can (i) address the limitations of current mobile VoIP, (ii) optimize network resource utilization to enable the development of other mobile data services and (iii) capitalize on widespread availability of higher bandwidth mobile access.

N�473 - New challenges for the Video Game Industry - 11 september 2006

2009-03-31

This issue of Communications & Strategies is above all an issue devoted to one sector, namely video games, and correlates to some degree to previous issues dedicated to the media (no. 62 & 71), to Web 2.0 (no. 65) and to the payment systems industry (no. 66).

The choice of video games as the central theme is justified by the growth of its various markets. It is no longer a marginal sector in terms of size, nor limited to only a niche population. It is expanding in several directions which are both enhancing it and intertwining it with a number of ICT markets (digital entertainment, Web services, mobile services, e-training, �) � and so helping to further spur the momentum.

Examining the video game sector and its underlying trends also provides a good cross-section of a great many of the economic issues that we regularly explore in our dossiers, whether analysis of two-sided markets (no. 61), the impact of bundling (no. 63) or vertical integration strategies (no. 68).

Anticipating the central theme of our next issue, I will add to that the topic of open innovation. As with previous dossiers, time and space restrictions prevented us from being able to address every aspect of this sector, so we will no doubt revisit this topic in future articles or future dossiers. In the meantime, I should like to extend my heartfelt thanks to our deputy
editors, Edward CASTRONOVA and Laurent MICHAUD, for their work on this issue.

It only remains for me to wish you happy reading, and to remind you that any comments and suggestions regarding this or future issues are most welcome, and should be addressed to our editorial coordinator.

Please find additional informations about this issue of C&S by following this link.

N�472 - Three scenarios for the TV market in 2020 -

2009-06-18

IDATE has just released a report on the future of television, based on forward-looking analysis that takes as its point of departure an in-depth diagnosis of the industry in 2008 and 2009 � then combined with an assessment of macro-economic trends to sketch out three development scenarios, backed by figures for Europe and the United States.

"This report follows through on an earlier prospective study we performed over four years ago, and on a series of works that have been produced since then on new forms of TV (mobile TV, pay-TV, IPTV, TVHD, 3D TV�)", explains IDATE�s Deputy CEO, Gilles Fontaine, "and allows us to distinguish the effects of the current recession, which are weighing on media companies, and the overriding trends that are bringing lasting changes to the TV industry as a whole".

All of the conditions needed to the TV industry to migrate to the Web are now in place:
� consumers who are used to watching videos online;
� technical solutions that provide access to Web content on the TV screen;
� open Internet access on mobile phones;
� premium content available online;
� improving quality of service for online video
� confluence of the strategies of new players coming from TV-related sectors.

This migration will be gradual, but it will have a deep-seated impact on the industry:
� exclusivity for rights distribution will no longer be the rule;
� some consumers will abandon traditional managed networks;
� onset of a globalisation trend that will benefit the major copyright holders.

Unlike the music and print media industries, the TV industry is forging itself a solid position on the Internet, which means that it can be a central player in online video services. The offensive strategy will likely pay off down the line, but will imply value destruction. This destruction will be caused by structural elements: fiercely competitive online advertising market and a lack of control over the circulation of programmes.

Far from being simply transitory, the economic downturn in 2009-2010 marks the onset of a decade of restructuring for the TV industry, which will begin with an overall decline in the sector�s resources before the proliferation of platforms comes to spur a new period of growth. The decade running from 2010 to 2020 will also be a time of cost cutting, with the industrialisation of TV production that departs once and for all from its historic model, i.e. cinema.
The European industry is particularly threatened by the migration to the Web. A review of the regulatory strategy for the audiovisual sector appears both necessary and urgent, and will involve the creation of integrated pan-European conglomerates.

It is against this backdrop that the IDATE report offers up three distinct scenarios:

� The �My Video Web� scenario, which IDATE has chosen as the most likely shape of things to come. It reflects a situation where the current crisis speeds up migration to the Web, the nervous system of social life. It is characterised by ubiquitous roaming, the development of online storage, universal and free connection and a predominance of social networking.

� The �Broadcast as Usual� scenario emerges from an environment where the recession is protracted, fixed and mobile ultra high-speed network rollouts are few in number and the Internet does not become the central entertainment medium. This is a scenario that remains favourable to media companies to the extent that the Internet�s destruction of value remains limited.

� The �Community TV� scenario describes a situation of social instability and State control over the network, combined with user concerns over health risks and protecting their privacy and increased clustering into communities. This scenario is less favourable to the development of a market that will remain fragmented and not terribly solvent.

N�471 - Femtocells - 15 May 2006

2009-06-11

The global Femtocell market will generate � 875 million in revenues for Service Providers by 2013 for 9.7 million shipped units. The market is not as promising as expected since the added value a Femtocell solution offers is too low in the eyes of endusers.

IDATE is publishing the second edition of its Femtocells Report. This report provides an overview of the latest trends in the emerging Femtocell market and examines how mass market deployment levels will be reached and what hurdles must first be overcome. It provides an analysis on roll out strategies, Femtocell standards, network connection methods and the strategies to reduce operator costs and increase revenues.

�Our market forecasts are quite cautious�, says Mathieu Limousi, Project Leader of the report, �because Femtocell mass market adoption conditions are not fulfilled yet and we also have to take into account big regional discrepancies�

� In total, integrated and mobile service providers will spend over � 734 million by 2013 for femtocell equipment. Integrated service providers are best positioned to offer Femtocell solutions as in addition to extending mobile network to the household, Femtocell is a fully convergent solution.

� The most dynamic market will be the USA as it will account for about 50 % of CPE shipped at the end of 2013. Asian operators will hold 26% of the market while the 23% remaining will be shared among some of the Western Europe service providers.

� Regional disparities are due to different expectations associated with Femtocell. North American users see strong value in the indoor coverage capabilities of the solution. But consumers in Asia and Western Europe expect more than just a better quality network: for them, the added value of Femtocell is in its convergence features.

Femtocells World Summit 2009 - June 23rd - June 25th, 2009 London, UK
IDATE is Analyst Partner of this major event and will take part in
Track A, June 24 at 11:30 on the topic of �Femtocells: Market Drivers,
Geographical Discrepancies, Consumer Demand� � presentation by IDATE
Femtocells expert, Mathieu Limousi.

Conference details

N�470 - Our Practices - 12 june 2006

2009-06-22

Telecommunication
� Networks & Equipment
� Broadband / FTTx
� Mobile & Spectrum
� Regulation
� Satellite
� Strategy & Prospective
� Business
� Telecom Economics

Internet
� Connected Objects
� Internet Network & Technologies
� Internet Services

TV & Digital Content
� Digital Home & Devices
� Video Games
� Television & Digital Content

Please find additional information about our Practices by following this link

N�469 - FTTx: global operator rankings - 6 March 2006

2009-06-08

On the whole, the global FTTH/B market continues to make strides. Growth in 2008 was steady, with close to 8 million new subscribers (+37% over the past 12 months) bringing the number of FTTH/B subscribers around the world to just over 29 million at the end of 2008, of which close to 80% are located in Asia.

Asia is the continent with the largest number of FTTH/B subscribers (22.7 million). Among the ten countries with the biggest FTTH/B subscriber bases, five are in Asia (Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China), one is in North America and four are in Europe.

Two Asian countries in particular, namely Japan and South Korea, stand out and are rivalled only by the US in terms of users: they are the only three nations with over a million FTTH/B subscribers.

Thanks to its large population, the United States is expected to eventually catch up, especially if we include VDSL systems. According to IDATE, FTTH/B subscribers in the United States will outnumber South Korean subscribers by 2011 � although Asia will remain the biggest market, in large part due to a huge upswing in users in China around 2012.

In terms of operators, the gap between Asia and the rest of the world is still considerable: among the globe�s ten largest FTTx operators, six are Asian, two are North American and two are European.

Only six operators in the world have a base of more than a million subscribers, four of which are Asian operators and the other two are based in North America. NTT is the largest FTTx operator with a base of 10.6 million subscribers or a 73% share of the Japanese market and a close to 37% share of the global market.

� 3rd Assises du Tr�s Haut D�bit � 9 June, Paris (Senate)
For the third consecutive year, IDATE is organising a one-day conference devoted ultra-fast broadband, in partnership with Aromates. This year�s topic is: �Towards a digital New Deal�.

� FTTx Summit 2009 � 10 June, Munich, Germany
Renewing its partnership with this important event, IDATE will take part in Session 2 at 2 p.m. on the topic of �Market Analysis � Developing accurate cost models for FTTH�.

N�469 - About DigiWorld Institute by IDATE - 9 March 2006

2009-06-22

IDATE creates the DigiWorld Institute - structured around three main courses of action:

� A European forum open on the world
The Digiworld Institute will take existing IDATE initiatives, such as DigiWorld Summit, and the clubs in Paris, London and Brussels, to the next level.

� An independent observatory
The Digiworld Institute will keep a close and continual watch on digital world industries, collect relevant data and provide benchmark analyses on market developments and innovations in the telecom, internet and media industries. This is something that the Institute has been doing for some time now, through its DigiWorld Yearbook and the DigiWorld Economic Journal, along with its comprehensive collection of market reports and market watch services that are
published and made available online throughout the year.

� A time-tested capacity for analysis and research
The Digiworld Institute must be able to identify the core issues the industry will be facing down the road, and to set up collaborative research programmes that will draw on the expertise of its members and in-house teams, in addition to calling out outside experts.

Please find additional information about DigiWorld Institute by IDATE by following this link

N�468 - The Digital World challenges - 23 December 2005

2009-05-12

A round-up of the state and challenges of the digital world

IDATE is releasing the 9th edition of its DigiWorld Yearbook which provides readers with a single volume round-up of outstanding analysis of the globe�s telecom, Internet and media markets from IDATE specialists from the past year, along with supporting data and a look at innovations to watch in the months ahead�

The DigiWorld Yearbook is published in English, French and Spanish (in collaboration with the Enter foundation). Launch ceremonies with special guests will be held in Paris (on 12 May, with a talk from Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet), in London (on 11 June, with Michel Combes, CEO Vodafone Europe), in Brussels (on 23 June with Fabio Colasanti, Director-General InfoSoc EC) and in Madrid�

The 2009 edition reveals that the combined growth rate for DigiWorld sectors last year dropped to 4.8%, while generating 2,740 billion EUR and representing 6.5% of global GDP in 2008. According to the Yearbook�s coordinator, Didier Pouillot, this decline is only partially due to the economic downturn, and can be attributed chiefly to the maturity of certain markets.

The report nevertheless illustrates the intensity of the changes at work in the different sectors, underscoring the growing weight in the equation of Asia and emerging economies, and by exploring the main issues and trends that emerged in 2008. It provides the latest IDATE data on mobile markets, broadband market growth, optical fibre network rollouts and video game markets. Also included are analyses from the Institute�s experts on topics such as the challenges being faced by TV networks as online video continues to gain momentum�

In his introduction, IDATE CEO, Yves Gassot, comments on Apple�s ongoing influence, having followed the successful launch of the iPhone in 2007 with its app store model which has taken hold as the point of reference for all of the mobile Internet�s existing and potential players. He points to social networking and the extraordinary user base acquired by players such as Facebook and Twitter which, despite their ongoing struggle to monetise their audience, are steadily becoming the decisive drivers of service innovations and shapers of new communication habits. He introduces the notions of open innovation and open platform as embodiments of the paradigm shift: no digital industry leader can afford to ignore the potential for innovation and value creation that the other players in the digital ecosystem represent, including the customers themselves. The key now is to know at what point to open their platforms up, and in what way�

In his foreword, IDATE President, Francis Lorentz sees in this crisis, which this time did not start inside the DigiWorld, as a real threat if public authorities do not take account of the central influence of these sectors in their recovery plans, but also as an opportunity to take advantage of a new innovation cycle that is opening up with the mobile Internet and cloud computing.

Order the 2009 Edition

N�466 - Online Advertising - 27 April 2009

2009-04-27

In its latest report devoted to the online advertising market, IDATE confirms that the global online advertising market had a net worth of 30.6 billion EUR in 2008, and will climb to 58.8 billion EUR in 2012 � accounting for 15% of advertisers� total spending.

�On the whole, the economic crisis will be beneficial for the Web,� says Sophie Girieud, the report�s project leader. �The online advertising market�s growth is sustained by ad monies being transferred from traditional media and below the line marketing campaigns, both national and local, to the Web, and more specifically to direct marketing. The recession is expected to further spur this trend of shifting budgets, with advertisers leaning increasingly in favour of the Web. This means that, in 2009, the Internet will likely be the medium to enjoy the greatest increase in ad spending, even if overall investments will be down.� IDATE forecasts that the global advertising market will grow by 12.1% in 2009 compared 20.7% in 2008.

� Online advertising revenue will increase at an average annual rate of 19.6% between 2009 and 2012, sustained by the ongoing rise in consumption and in the number of users, and by advertisers shifting their budgets from traditional media and offline non-media marketing, both national and local, to the Web, and more specifically to direct marketing and especially sponsored links. The economic downturn is expected to further spur this trend of shifting budgets, with advertisers leaning increasingly in favour of the Web.

� The Internet is above all a below-the-line marketing medium: search marketing accounts for half of the global online advertising market 2009, or 17.2 billion EUR. It will represent 53% of the market in 2012, generating an estimated 31.3 billion EUR.

� Net revenue generated worldwide by display ads will go from 12.3 billion EUR in 2009 to 21.2 billion EUR in 2012. Its share of the global market will hold more or less steady at around 36% thanks to the development of rich media and video advertising formats. Video ads are expected to be the online format with the strongest growth momentum in the coming years.

N�465 - FTTx Forecasts - 6 April 2009

2009-04-06

IDATE confirms that, despite the downturn that is affecting virtually every economy, the ultra high-speed access market is expected to grow significantly � with the global customer base increasing to 140 million by 2014. FTTH/B technologies will dominate the market, accounting for around 114.4 million subscribers, compared to around 25.6 million customer for VDSL.

Several indicators confirm the interest that exists in deploying very high-speed infrastructure, notably those pertaining to the consumer electronics market. All multimedia equipment is still enjoying solid popularity, in part thanks to the drop in prices which is expected to continue over the next several years.

The growing number of devices in use will generate increasing demand for bandwidth. Following through on previous years, a number of FTTx infrastructure rollout projects came to fruition in 2008. In some countries, in Eastern Europe for instance, these were brand new projects launched by national and in some cases international operators, such as Vimpelcom in Russia and Ukraine.

Although broadband is not yet a fully mature market in many cases, it does seem entirely plausible that the switch to FTTx will be much faster because operators will be able to anticipate future needs and will deploy more future-proof and high performance infrastructure directly.

At the same time, some deployments in 2008 took place more slowly than originally planned. Such was the case with certain operators in France, even if their long-term strategy is not being questioned. It is nevertheless our opinion that these delays will affect the rate of subscriber growth and could, depending on the zone, mean that target figures from earlier forecasts will take roughly one year longer to reach.

�Ultimately,� says Roland Montagne, the head of IDATE�s Broadband/FTTx Practice, �FTTx remains a sector with high growth potential, hitting its peak rate of increase some time between 2010 and 2012, topping out at up to 30% from one year to the next. By 2014, FTTH/B technologies will have taken the lead over VDSL rollouts.� The way the subscriber base is distributed around the globe is not likely to change in any significant way, however:

- Asia likely to remain the region with the biggest FTTH/B market, and even becoming the core VDSL market as well, given the current strategies being implemented by certain Asian operators.

- Meanwhile, although growth there was slightly below forecasts in 2008, the United States is still likely to stay about a year ahead of Western Europe.

- Elsewhere around the globe, FTTx will be a central driving force behind telecom market growth in Eastern Europe, but much less so in other regions like the Middle East. Despite the potential of this region, and of the Gulf States in particular, it nevertheless remains that announcements coming from operators have yet to confirm any real development for FTTx in the short term.

Discover our "FTTx Watch Service" specifically designed to provide with a global FTTx projects database, a comprehensive analysis of the issues affecting this promising market:

> Database: a unique, continually updated FTTx market database, providing market data by country and by technology, along with forecasts for the coming months and years

> Insights: Monthly views on key issues

> Market reports: Quarterly

N�464 - Media companies� e-Commerce Strategies - 18 March 2009

2009-03-18

In this note IDATE examines media companies� relationship to e-commerce. For most of them, advertising alone is not enough to finance their online operations, added to which they are having to contend with a growing field of competitors: pure players, content aggregators, other media UGC (User-Generated Content).

CPM is lower online than off: an online consumer generates five to 10 times less ad revenue than an offline consumer. E-commerce is thriving and offering media sites a potential source of added income, particularly if they have been involved in sales activities offline for a long time (shopping channels, licensed products, co-branded and special editions).

� Media companies are having to contend with greater competition on the Internet than in the physical universe: pure players, content aggregators, other media UGC (User-Generated Content). CPM is lower: an online consumer generates five to 10 times less ad revenue than an offline consumer.

� At the same time, the e-commerce market is growing steadily, added to which media companies are already veterans of offline sales (shopping channels, licensed products, co-branded and special editions).

� The media now have the opportunity of developing into veritable media stores by incorporating e-commerce offers into their editorial content.

� Depending on their size and how qualified their audience is, traditional media companies� websites can roll out different e-commerce strategies:
- simple affiliation to monetise audience,
- price comparison service,
- licensed products,
- specialty e-commerce,
- e-commerce incorporated into editorial content.

The different models can be combined depending on the product involved, and the cohesion with the company�s core business and audience. Media companies� websites would also do well to develop a two-sided business model, whereby each side � namely ad revenue and their media store business � feeds the other.

N�463 - Broadband via Satellite - 17 March 2009

2009-03-17

This report examines recent developments in the United States, Asia and Europe, analyses the issues involved in rolling out these services and assesses the opportunities tied to the deployment of fixed satellite access services in residential markets in Europe and North Africa.

Broadband via satellite back in the news

According to Maxime Baudry, the report�s Project Leader, �Two-way solutions have been developing for several years now, allowing users to do away with the need for a telephone connection. While traditionally using the Ku band, the Ka band was introduced in 2005 as an added alternative�. Despite certain technical restrictions, the introduction of the Ka band helps drive a �revival� of high-speed satellite access thanks to a much more appealing business model than the one tied to the introduction of the Ku band several years back. Overall, the current price per Mb for the Ka band is four to ten times less than for the Ku band, which has been made possible by a satellite capacity that has increased by a factor of 70 in a matter of years, for the same price. The price of the user terminals, which is also key to the success of high-speed Ka-band satellite access, has dropped by a factor of six in five years, going from 2,000 EUR in 2004 to 350 EUR at the end of 2008.

Main conclusions of this IDATE report

� IDATE estimates that there were still over 30 million households in Europe and North Africa that were not covered by a terrestrial broadband solution in 2008, or 16% less than in 2007. More than half of these households are located in North Africa.

� After having emerged in North America and Asia, satellite broadband in the Ka band was introduced in Europe in mid-2007 and has since proven a popular solution for several European telecom operators looking to cover the several thousand customers still cut off from the digital world.

� The market expected to enjoy the highest rate of growth in the coming years is the Ka-band satellite market, especially thanks to wide-reaching government plans to reduce the digital divide.

� The revival of the satellite broadband market has been enabled by a massive drop in the price of terminals, combined with the introduction of the Ka band which has helped bring down the price of bandwidth considerably.

� In the battle with terrestrial technologies, and particularly wireless ones (3G and WiMAX), satellite technology needs to leverage its assets, the main one being immediate availability at a reasonable cost.

IDATE�s analysis includes four strategic scenarios based on four geographical zones defined according to key criteria that allow us to establish the most suitable positioning to adopt for marketing a satellite broadband service in each.

N�462 - e-Paper vs. Print Media and Publishing - 12 March 2009

2009-03-12

In its report devoted to the outlook for e-paper, IDATE provides an analysis of the issues surrounding electronic paper technologies, examines the status of these technologies and the challenges inherent in the main vertical markets, notably for print media and publishing.

The electronic paper, or e-paper, market is just now taking off, built chiefly around a few central applications. Electronic paper, which is sometimes referred to as electronic ink, is not really just a single technology but rather a set of electronically modifiable display technologies used to mimic the appearance of paper. e-paper is therefore competing not only with ordinary paper products (loose leaf, cardboard) but also with screen technologies (LCD, OLED). The e-paper market is still a small one but is expected to reach 2 billion USD by 2012, starting to build a real momentum in 2010 � centred initially around a few applications but eventually extending to a great many sectors.

� At a time when content is being digitised and revenue is shrinking in most media segments (with the exception of the free press) due to competition from the Internet, the print media sector is making the logical move towards embracing this technology as an additional medium, offering a new (more interactive) approach to information. The switch to electronic versions also helps bring down raw material, production and distribution costs, which account for nearly 60% of total costs.

� Purely proprietary initiatives, such as those rolled out by Les Echos and Yantai Daily in China, are still few and far between, largely because the devices are still too expensive. We are, however, seeing a growing number of newsstand type offers based on Amazon�s Kindle in the United States (which carries all the biggest daily papers from around the globe), and on Orange and SFR devices in France, which offer the major French dailies. But, the performance of the devices is still considered below par (response time, colour), notably by IFRA, an association of major print media companies, when compared to laptops or mobile phones. Investing in a dedicated device just for reading newspapers would seem a hard sell, but this device could also be used by the publishing industry for e-books.

� The publishing market is reporting meagre growth in most industrialised countries. Unlike other content, digitising books is still an area that has been little developed, except in Japan (mostly for Manga comics). Publishers are nevertheless expecting a gradual shift to digital, taking advantage of the benefits of electronic formats (indexing, storage, future-proofing, interactivity, DVD type bonus material) and of major digitisation initiatives.

� General interest publishing is making slow forays into digital, largely to avoid an upheaval in its traditional distribution channels (bookshops). e-paper also suffers from the fact that it does not offer the same visceral pleasures as a book, and forces readers to change their habits � which is why is has remained a niche consumer market up to now. Several publishers have, however, already associated themselves with Amazon�s Kindle, which offers a reader with a 3G connection (connectivity included), a small selection of integrated services (including free and unlimited access to Wikipedia) and a content distribution platform, for a standard price of 9.99 USD a piece for books from the New York Times best seller list (i.e. below retail). This strategy is similar to Apple�s approach to music with the iTunes/iPod combination. Despite major limitations (interoperability, minimalist design), Amazon has already sold close to 300,000 units, targeting technophiles and book lovers first and foremost.

� Emergence of specialised applications: e-paper seems to be best suited to business-related editorial content, with a more educational or encyclopaedic style. The e-paper device can hold large volumes of content and be used when on the move (low energy consumption, lightweight), even in extreme environments. e-paper is already used in aerospace applications and is being tested by the legal sector and by various manufacturing sectors (e.g. for maintenance manuals). In the realm of consumer applications, e-paper could be used initially for applications such as travel guides.

N�461 - DigiWorld Summit 2009 - 4 March 2009

2009-03-04

More on: www.digiworldsummit.com

Next IDATE's DigiWorld Summit
November 18 & 19 � Montpellier (France)

What do �open� concepts really entail (open source, open API, open mobile, open internet, open television...)? And what do they tell us about disruptive innovations, the way digital industries will be organised in future, about industry leaders, the new business models, changes in standardisation and IPR practices, the rules of competition, public policy priorities�?

� Open Innovation and Web 2.0: how do social networking and UGC players manage innovation on their platforms? What are the different models? What role for telcos?

� SAS, Cloud computing...: the role of Linux in new services and computing architectures

� Open Mobile and the mobile Internet value chain: issues surrounding opened OS, API, stores (for downloads), spectrum access�

� Open IPTV: managed TV vs. online TV offers

� Open DRM, global licences�: measures to counter media content piracy

� Open Net/Open Access: do we need Net neutrality legislation? What impact will it have on incentives to invest in new fixed and mobile high-speed infrastructure? What role for public money in the "stimulus packages"?

� Open telcos: which models (vertical integration, mutualisation, functional separation�) can generate a new profit cycle?

� Openness and competition: what are the new competition issues that need to be addressed?

> The views of digital industry leaders (telecom, Internet, media)

> Analysis from IDATE�s experts

> Close-up on the Guest Country for 2009: USA

Contacts
> Programme & speakers : Sophie Monjo, +33(0)4 67 14 44 13 - s.monjo@idate.org
> Sponsoring & Organisation : No�lle Sulmoni-Laborde, +33(0)4 67 14 44 08 n.sulmoni@idate.org

N�460 - Telecom equipment - 3 March 2009

2009-03-03

Increased pressure

The global telecommunications equipment market grew by close to 5% in 2008: a moderate rate of growth that involved a shift in the contribution made by handset components and infrastructure hardware. From a geographical standpoint, Asia was the prime source of growth � specifically China and India � which accounts for two-thirds of the increase in sales worldwide, while representing only just over 40% of the total market (and China and India combined accounting for less than 20%).

Indian operators� investments have increased by close to 50% a year since 2003, on average, or by seven times in five years. From a broader perspective, the Asia-Pacific region�s contribution to global spending on telecom networks increased by four points during that time, while Western Europe and North America lost six and five points, respectively.

Bleaker outlook

In the world�s advanced regions, where the situation in an already lifeless services market has been worsened in recent times by the prospect of a looming economic crisis, operators are tightening their belts further still to be able to maintain their margins, and are being particularly cautious about their investments. For equipment manufacturers, this means added pressure on sales, especially since the handset market, of which mobiles represent 90%, is also suffering a downturn after three to four years of double-digit growth.

The rise of Asian manufacturers

In the infrastructure equipment segment, it is Chinese companies that are enjoying the strongest growth momentum by far and which no doubt have the best prospects when it comes to exports, as much to emerging markets as to mature ones. Huawei�s revenue increased six times between 2003 and 2008, during which time ZTE�s quadrupled. Among Western companies, Cisco and Ericsson have fared particularly well, thanks to growth in IP routing hardware sales for Cisco � helping the company multiply its sales by a factor of 2.5 in five years � and to the success of infrastructure-based services for Ericsson, whose sales nevertheless dipped in 2008.

The big mergers, on the other hand, have translated into mediocre performances for their protagonists: Nokia Siemens and Alcatel Lucent reported sales in 2008 that were only just equal to 2003 levels. These results, and particularly the downwards slide since 2005-2006, can be seen to be due to the sluggish momentum in Europe and North America in particular. Meanwhile, the lack of critical mass has increased the pressure on smaller players such as Motorola and Nortel, in an environment where price wars are heating up � claiming Nortel as their first victim, with many expecting the firm to file for bankruptcy.

Handset market also feeling the squeeze

The economic slowdown is also likely to increase its impact on mobile phone sales. IDATE remains �quite optimistic� over the outlook for 2009, and states that the mobile phone market has progressed by 5% in 2008 reaching 1,200 units sold over the year. Mature markets where sales are driven by replacement should feel the greatest impact, with the possibility of negative sales in North America, Western Europe and Japan. Over the longer term, sales in 2010 will likely remain low (<6%) but with a renewed interest from users for innovative models. Sales could begin to gain traction once again starting in 2011, depending on how the current crisis plays out.

Opportunities for 2009

At a time of economic crisis across the globe, combined with structural difficulties in the telecom equipment market, IDATE nevertheless asserts that there are still a number of opportunities to sustain equipment makers willing to rise to the challenge:
� large scale 3G mobile network rollouts in China and India;
� the drive to continue to reduce the digital divide in other emerging countries, with extensions of wireless networks;
� investments in ultra-fast broadband networks, particularly by governments;
� increasing ubiquity of managed services, especially outsourced networks.

The telecom equipment market is nonetheless likely to suffer a downturn in 2009, with its growth rate slipping to around 1% compared to the year before.

Discover our "Telecom Equipment Watch Service" specifically designed to provide readers with a global telecom equipment database, along with comprehensive analysis of the issues affecting this market:
� Database: a continually updated market database, providing market data by country and by technology, along with forecasts for the coming months, Subscribers base, Capex and Contracts (Monthly tracking)
� Insights: Monthly views on key issues
� Quarterly market reports

N�459 - Inventory of FTTH in Europe - 11 February 2009

2009-02-11

As in previous years, IDATE has been commissioned by the FTTH Council Europe to provide an overview of the status of FTTH rollouts across Europe at the end of 2008.

To date, FTTH/B was still making real strides in Europe in terms of coverage, with some 11.2 million homes passed. Subscriber numbers are also on the rise, even if users are still concentrated in only a few countries.

In Eastern Europe, Russia has taken the lead in FTTH/B deployments and is now home to around 630,000 FTTB subscribers. If player involvement increases, the country will soon become one of the globe�s largest FTTB markets. Rollouts in the Middle East are still limited but there is real potential for FTTH/B to develop � the key driver there being massive new housing programmes.

Discover our "FTTx Watch Service� specifically designed to provide with a global FTTx projects database, a comprehensive analysis of the issues affecting this promising market:

� Database: a unique, continually updated FTTx market database, providing market data by country and by technology, along with forecasts for the coming months and years

� Insights: Monthly views on key issues

� Market reports: Quarterly