News
13/10/2009
TV & Cinema: Rollout conditions and scenarios
3D Video
Currently attracting a great deal of attention, 3D video is a market that is emerging as a driving force behind innovation and growth for TV and film industry players. This report provides a complete inventory of the current state of the market presenting technical solutions, trials that are underway and pioneer commercial developments. It also offers 3D rollout scenarios up to 2015.
Main conclusions
Stereoscopy, the current 3D standard, is considered to be the first generation of native 3D video technology. Autostereoscopy, which makes it possible to do away with viewing glasses, is being touted as the next 3D format.
The audiovisual industrys technical chain will need to adapt to the arrival of 3D. The biggest question mark that remains is the picture format to use, given the absence of an industry standard. In addition, to be able to take advantage of 3D, consumers will need to equip themselves with a new compatible screen (TV/monitor).
One positive element in this development wave is that the industry will likely benefit from the efforts devoted to the transition to HD, since 3D will reuse the HD infrastructure in post-production and in the distribution stage.
The development of 3D cinema appears to be an irreversible trend, and the entire technical chain appears to be working to meet the challenges created by 3D, from the increase in the number of films being produced to the equipment of movie theatres. Plus a business model appears to be emerging, with higher box office revenue being generated by films in 3D.
The future of 3D TV is less clear, content is scarce, business models non existent and one crucial part of the equation remains problematic, namely the number of households equipped with the 3D-compatible viewing devices. Deciding on a common standard as quickly as possible seems to be critical to moving forward, added to which 3D/HD synergies should be maximised to ensure the development of 3D.
The video game market will benefit from its ability to switch easily to 3D, starting with PC games. It could then prove a critical lever for increasing household 3D equipment levels, which it turn will pave the way for the deployment of 3D TV services. But we have a chicken or the egg conundrum here, with uncertainties still amongst the console makers, Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft, over the launch of their next generation consoles without there being a 3D television market in place.
3D development scenarios
Special events cinema market Centred around the use of 3D in cinemas, this scenario enables the swift development of 3D content, with a technical chain that is already in place. But the 3D market remains confined to special events viewing and to a small audience.
3DTV - This scenario is centred around TV viewing, both linear (3D TV channels) and/or time-shifted (from Blu-ray to VoD). To achieve a mass market over time, the industry will need to absorb the different generations of 3D, i.e. stereo-, auto- and multi-scopic.
Multi-platform 3D This is the most positive scenario for the development of a 3D mass market by 2015. The market finds itself in a virtuous circle where the maximum exposure of 3D content spurs consumption, which is itself fuelled by the availability of a large and varied selection of 3D content on several types of media/platform.
